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Vanilla are planning an update to the site on April 24th (next Wednesday). It is a major PHP8 update which is expected to boost performance across the site. The site will be down from 7pm and it is expected to take about an hour to complete. We appreciate your patience during the update.
Thanks all.
8-10's Baseball Log 2013
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01-04-2013 5:35pm#1
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I'm toying with the idea of the Over 1.5 runs in 9th inning market. Essentially it's betting on closers blown saves or poor relievers.
I am wondering if we look at teams with a weak bullpen, maybe the bottom 6 or 7 teams in the Majors, and look for when they play against each other. Then look for instances where one or both of the regular closer is injured or has pitched the previous night.
Pretty much all the teams average less than 0.5 runs conceded in the 9th inning over 162 games with only Mets and Brewers higher last year.
But with PP odds all either 4/1 or 9/2, my suspicion is that these odds are standard per night as these odds will cover the market on average over the season.
So what we would need to do is target those nights where the runs in the 9th will be more likely to be 2 or more. If we can predict the probability of these and only bet on these games at 4/1 or 9/2, we may be able to get an edge on the static prices.
So if there's any suggestions on things to look at please let me know. I'm going to see what I can dig up online and what data I have, and then start testing models for 9th inning runs.
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I'm toying with the idea of the Over 1.5 runs in 9th inning market. Essentially it's betting on closers blown saves or poor relievers.
I am wondering if we look at teams with a weak bullpen, maybe the bottom 6 or 7 teams in the Majors, and look for when they play against each other. Then look for instances where one or both of the regular closer is injured or has pitched the previous night.
Pretty much all the teams average less than 0.5 runs conceded in the 9th inning over 162 games with only Mets and Brewers higher last year.
But with PP odds all either 4/1 or 9/2, my suspicion is that these odds are standard per night as these odds will cover the market on average over the season.
So what we would need to do is target those nights where the runs in the 9th will be more likely to be 2 or more. If we can predict the probability of these and only bet on these games at 4/1 or 9/2, we may be able to get an edge on the static prices.
So if there's any suggestions on things to look at please let me know. I'm going to see what I can dig up online and what data I have, and then start testing models for 9th inning runs.
New plan. Anytime the cents balance after the decimal in my bank is over 50 (so not currently as it's 12, €92.12) I will use that rounding amount in a 9th inning over bet. If it were today I'd put it on Rockies v Brewers at 17/4 but it's not.
Reason being that until I get more research done I don't want to start staking properly on it, but I'm intrigued by the market so ill use the rounding in my bank to give it a go along the way. 0 -
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Odds aren't up yet for 1st half (will edit post once they are, should be mid-afternoon) but my 3 picks today:
1st Half Match Betting:
Baltimore Orioles @ evens
Toronto Blue Jays @ 4/7
0 Runs in 1st Inning:
Philadelphia Phillies v Atlanta Braves @ 8/13
Edit: Ok had to remove Pirates as PP don't have them listed for the 1st half market.
Replaced them with the Orioles who I'm less confident about but still should start well. 0 -
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Red Sox @ 4/6 Push
Mets @ evens Win
Giants @ 10/17 Win
The bet I really am tempted by is the Diamondbacks with Cahill on the mound, but I'm just afraid that they won't hit and their streak (4 wins on the bounce) will end. So I'm instead taking Madison Bumgardner v Rockies despite my concerns with San Francisco's run support versus an in-form Colorado team.
Bucholz is still underrated as a starter this year so taking him for value. And Matt Harvey looks a real good player since break-out last year and is against a very erratic Roy Halladay who burned me last week. I think even if he bounces back, Harvey will still be solid and Mets are in better form than Philadelphia.
So I called all of that pretty well. Stayed away from Diamondbacks and their streak did indeed end. They lost 5-3 and were 4-3 down through 5 innings.
Buchholz pitched well again but didn't get run support until the 7th so that was a void bet. Harvey was on form and Halladay had another bad outing as predicted so that's a winner, as was the Giants behind Bumgardner.
Total Staked: €75.75
Total Returned: €99.57
Return on Investment: (99.57-75.75)/75.75 = +31.45%
P/L on €100 starting bank: +€23.82
Bank: €123.820 -
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Ok so I've updated my win and ERA projections for all starting pitchers (well, at least the top 3 in the rotation of each team) based on a few adjustments from the first few weeks of the season.
So I'm now analyzing matchups between pitchers with the aim of backing the likely winners. So I'm concentrating on pitchers that I project winning at least 13 games and/or less than 3.50 ERA against pitchers more likely to lose with higher ERAs, ideally playing for a team with an inferior offence. (I have runs created projections per team but I am hoping to be able to adjust this on a player basis and extrapolate up, however not knowing all the lineups by the time of betting may be an issue)
The reason for this change is that too many times above, I have had 4 or 5 selections in a day but constrained myself to 3 and picked the wrong 3! Or, I had 2 strong selections and picked another just to get the 3 rather than have 0 in a day.
So this new system will likely have a lot more bets in a day, and a lot more days with no bets. This is my guess anyway, it will balance out a bit more as the rotations start getting mixed up further.
My stake is now €21 per day of selection, up from €15 (also works well with different multiples), and I'll start with next few days of picks:
So picks for today 04/17:
1st Half Match Betting:
Indians @ 4/6
Dodgers @ 5/13
Mariners @ 5/6
Rays @ 5/6
0 Runs in 1st inning:
Arizona v Yankees @ 8/11
€1 x 10 doubles
€1 x 10 trebles
€1 x 5-Fold
€21 staked
Picks for Thursday 04/18:
1st Half Match Betting:
Red Sox
Giants
Rays
0 Runs in 1st inning:
Cardinals v Phillies
Cubs v Rangers
€1 x 10 doubles
€1 x 10 trebles
€1 x 5-Fold
€21 staked
Picks for Friday 04/19:
1st Half Match Betting:
Diamondbacks
Giants
Rangers
0 Runs in 1st inning:
Royals v Red Sox
€3.35 x 6 Doubles
€0.90 x 4-Fold
€21 staked
Picks for Saturday 04/20:
1st Half Match Betting:
Diamondbacks
Braves
Phillies
Nationals
€3.35 x 6 Doubles
€0.90 x 4-Fold
€21 staked
Picks for Sunday 04/21:
1st Half Match Betting:
Braves
Tigers
Nationals
€6 x 3 Doubles
€3 x Treble
€21 staked
I will edit this post with stakes for today once posted on PP (should be within the hour) and will quote each day on the other days (just so the timestamp on this post is clearly today and doesn't change everyday) wish me luck! 0 -
Picks for Thursday 04/18:
1st Half Match Betting:
Red Sox @ 5/7
Giants @ 20/23
Rays @ 4/6
0 Runs in 1st inning:
Cardinals v Phillies @ 4/6
Cubs v Rangers @ 8/15
€1 x 10 doubles
€1 x 10 trebles
€1 x 5-Fold
€21 staked
Nothing returned yesterday. Disaster all round.
Fingers crossed for today. After the above have finished, moving forward I'm going to change to 0 runs in 2nd inning instead of 1st as it is statistically less likely to have a run than the 1st. Odds reflect this of course, but in multiples you need more selections to win, I'm not concerned about value here.0 -
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