[Fully Established]

Finally looks like the Atlantic low pressures might be finally moving away from us enabling the high pressure from the Azores to hopefully move north.

[ednwireland]

probably means it wont stop raining in donegal

[Outkast_IRE]

Originally Posted by Fully Established

Finally looks like the Atlantic low pressures might be finally moving away from us enabling the high pressure from the Azores to hopefully move north.

Really, the met eireann (i know they arent great) 5 day looks like a belt of rain hitting us most days.

When do you expect us to maybe get some nice days ? Fingers crossed here.

[Fully Established]

Originally Posted by Outkast_IRE

Really, the met eireann (i know they arent great) 5 day looks like a belt of rain hitting us most days.

When do you expect us to maybe get some nice days ? Fingers crossed here.

It looks like it could move north from about 10 days or so its a lifetime in weather , but the indications are there.

[boatbuilder]

Do you mean this?? Long way off!

[Fully Established]

Thats the one i have acknowledged its 10 days away which leaves a lot of opportunity for it to change but it looks good for the time been .

[ZX7R]

A good few of the charts are starting to show the azores high starting to build in that time frame ,lets hope so...

[delw]

Maybe the thread title should be named "Fantasy Island Summer Weather" because that chart is FI

[Gallee]

Originally Posted by delw

Maybe the thread title should be named "Fantasy Island Summer Weather" because that chart is FI

FI ? What does that mean? I 'am new to trying to read charts so why would this high not move according to the chart?
Cheers for the info.

[ZX7R]

Originally Posted by Gallee

FI ? What does that mean? I 'am new to trying to read charts so why would this high not move according to the chart?
Cheers for the info.

When a chart is that far out it is said on bords that its fantasy island,so hence F.I The weather can change on charts between each run.

[Deep Easterly]

IMT summer mean temp so far (up to 30th June) running 0.6°c below the 1981-2010 normal, but thankfully, still 1.0°c higher than that of this stage last year. A chart to show IMT mean temp trend of both the summer period this year and last to show comparison:



Needless to say it has been a wet month everywhere. Over the IMT zone, mean sea level pressure values finished around 8.0 hPa below normal which could make them the lowest values on record for the month of June.


Data from met.ie / Ogimet / NOAA

[Big Tone]

How wrong can this guy be?!


"The driest period of the year may be most of the second half of June. Little or no heavy rain events are expected between the third week in May to mid July. Warm temperatures may occur during the fourth week in June"

http://www.predictweather.co.nz/Arti...=396&type=home

[Kenring]

Originally Posted by Big Tone

How wrong can this guy be?!


"The driest period of the year may be most of the second half of June. Little or no heavy rain events are expected between the third week in May to mid July. Warm temperatures may occur during the fourth week in June"

http://www.predictweather.co.nz/Arti...=396&type=home

Oh yes, but see the wider picture. I did say, in my 2012 almanac, rain is going to be above normal everywhere this year, particularly in the south and west. My claim is for 80% accuracy, which means at least 2 months in any year may be out. One of those may have been June this year, which has been wetter than I expected. There is also a 50-mile radius in all forecasting.
I also said (in the almanac 2012) heat waves in Central Europe were likely this summer, but not for Ireland. If easterlies are strong enough, the hotter air travelling west causes more evaporation, and that must fall as rain somewhere. It looks as if easterlies have been strong and frequent enough to carry this warmer upper-level air as far as Ireland, causing the rain. In other words the rain is a function of heat somewhere else and where the wind is prevailing from. I have no way of predicting this as archival wind direction figures are not available to me. Met Eirann will not supply them, despite my requests to purchase them.
Rain amounts are due to evaporation rates beforehand somewhere, which means sun’s heat. Rain amounts are not determined by the moon. Therefore whilst weather timing is mainly lunar, and predictable, amounts are not.
There is only so much I can do, and when I recommend holiday periods it is without considering the sun-heat factor elsewhere. The method is not faulty, it is the politics of the official meteorologists that obstruct me. So you can take it that the dry times I suggest would be worth considering, but if you are reading about heatwaves in either Europe and/or England, then there may be the overlay factor of potential for rain in Ireland taking note of the wind directions.

[Villain]

Originally Posted by Kenring

Oh yes, but see the wider picture. I did say, in my 2012 almanac, rain is going to be above normal everywhere this year, particularly in the south and west. My claim is for 80% accuracy, which means at least 2 months in any year may be out. One of those may have been June this year, which has been wetter than I expected. There is also a 50-mile radius in all forecasting.
I also said (in the almanac 2012) heat waves in Central Europe were likely this summer, but not for Ireland. If easterlies are strong enough, the hotter air travelling west causes more evaporation, and that must fall as rain somewhere. It looks as if easterlies have been strong and frequent enough to carry this warmer upper-level air as far as Ireland, causing the rain. In other words the rain is a function of heat somewhere else and where the wind is prevailing from. I have no way of predicting this as archival wind direction figures are not available to me. Met Eirann will not supply them, despite my requests to purchase them.
Rain amounts are due to evaporation rates beforehand somewhere, which means sun’s heat. Rain amounts are not determined by the moon. Therefore whilst weather timing is mainly lunar, and predictable, amounts are not.
There is only so much I can do, and when I recommend holiday periods it is without considering the sun-heat factor elsewhere. The method is not faulty, it is the politics of the official meteorologists that obstruct me. So you can take it that the dry times I suggest would be worth considering, but if you are reading about heatwaves in either Europe and/or England, then there may be the overlay factor of potential for rain in Ireland taking note of the wind directions.

This is the same guy that said live on Today FM that he could forecast to the day years in advance.

However when called out on his poor record he finds every excuse under the Sun (pun intended) 50 mile radius, rain could be mist or heavy dew temps aren't really accurate etc etc

It's not just June he has got wrong and I'm not talking as someone who is just going by what he posts here, I bought his forecast for a year and when I called him on the poor results he used every excuse you can think of!

[Kenring]

Originally Posted by Villain

This is the same guy that said live on Today FM that he could forecast to the day years in advance.

However when called out on his poor record he finds every excuse under the Sun (pun intended) 50 mile radius, rain could be mist or heavy dew temps aren't really accurate etc etc

It's not just June he has got wrong and I'm not talking as someone who is just going by what he posts here, I bought his forecast for a year and when I called him on the poor results he used every excuse you can think of!

Oh come on Villain, this is very old stuff and you have had a go at me dredging this up several times now on other threads. You admitted then that you were a meteorologist and ordered a report from me just so you could pick holes in it. So what else could one expect?!! And no, you heard wrong on TodayFM about 5 years ago. I can't forecast to the day years in advance and don't claim to be able to. But I can comment on trends in advance based on lunar cycles because this is the free world and it is opinion, nothing more. Nothing wrong with that unless you have elected yourself the Thought Police. Forums are places to express opinions.