[later12]

Originally Posted by Eliot Rosewater

This treaty isn't here to help some parliamentarians keep their seats, or to shmoozy a few special interests.

Really? You don't think it's possible that the particularly tight deficit rules of questionable economic inflexibility and the nature of the correction mechanism dictated by the EU Commission could be - even in part - a sop dem Deustchen Volke, as Merkel eyes her fate?

[Dirk Gently]

Originally Posted by Eliot Rosewater

That's perhaps true, but then the alternative isn't well determined, either. That is, your concern rests on the unpredictably of the usage of the Treaty by the European government -- however, can one really suggest that the Irish government is any more predictable and/or "better"?

Obviously the Irish government is more accountable in terms of relying more directly on the electorate for their position, but historical evidence suggest that this doesn't ensure that ultimately disastrous economic policies are not followed. The evidence here is the current crisis which was caused in a large way by the low-tax high-spend policies promoted by the 3 major parties. You're hinting that we can't trust the commission -- but should those fears be placed closer to home, too?

One thing I like about the EU (from my limited knowledge) is its "coldness". This treaty isn't here to help some parliamentarians keep their seats, or to shmoozy a few special interests. It is here because running large deficits has a demonstrably negative effect on the long term stability of the Eurozone, and something is needed to safeguard that. If the commission makes fiscal recommendations it probably won't have ideological factors (such as an opposition to child welfare, for instance) in mind, but will only be interested in satisfying the cold mathematical demands of a stable economic policy.

In fairness, the EU is a lobbyists wet dream. One of the things I'm worried about is that it's also not in fact immune from political opportunism either and the mechanism I highlighted earlier could well be used to forward an agenda at our expense, for example an instruction to us to raise corporation tax would go down well in a lot of EU countries.

Both of those concerns pale though when I think about the broader point, we are in effect giving up on democracy and looking to unaccountable technocrats to rule us. Representative democracy has failed in Ireland, I'd rather try to fix it though than abandon it. Short term perhaps, this treaty might be a good thing, medium to long term though I'd be looking to withdraw as opposed to getting further sucked in.

The question I need to ask is, do I support a temporary suspension of democracy and or accountability for the greater good of the nation, and will it be a temporary transfer or a permanent one.

[Scofflaw]

Originally Posted by Dirk Gently

In fairness, the EU is a lobbyists wet dream.

No more so than any other centre of power, I think. Somewhat less in quite a lot of ways, because the legislation gets voted on by 27 countries, which means quite a lot of national level lobbying is vital for developments at the European level.

Originally Posted by Dirk Gently

One of the things I'm worried about is that it's also not in fact immune from political opportunism either and the mechanism I highlighted earlier could well be used to forward an agenda at our expense, for example an instruction to us to raise corporation tax would go down well in a lot of EU countries.

But would be a terrible precedent for the other countries not to block. The Commission, precisely because it's not an elected body, but also because it operates by consensus, is less likely to start playing politics, and will be well aware of the limits to its effective mandate. Imposing a deeply nationally unpopular measure like that would do the Commission immense damage.

Originally Posted by Dirk Gently

Both of those concerns pale though when I think about the broader point, we are in effect giving up on democracy and looking to unaccountable technocrats to rule us. Representative democracy has failed in Ireland, I'd rather try to fix it though than abandon it. Short term perhaps, this treaty might be a good thing, medium to long term though I'd be looking to withdraw as opposed to getting further sucked in.

The question I need to ask is, do I support a temporary suspension of democracy and or accountability for the greater good of the nation, and will it be a temporary transfer or a permanent one.

Eh, and that's basically tosh. The clauses on excessive deficit procedures is only operative when there's an excessive deficit, and applies solely to measures to get us out of the deficit.

And while we're currently in an excessive deficit, we're also exempt from the application of these rules until three years after the end of our current program.

cordially,
Scofflaw

[Dirk Gently]

Originally Posted by Scofflaw

Eh, and that's basically tosh. The clauses on excessive deficit procedures is only operative when there's an excessive deficit,

which is defined by the commission

Originally Posted by Scofflaw

and applies solely to measures to get us out of the deficit.

measures which are also defined by the commission



what happens if /when we are in excessive deficit as a result of following the fiscal treaty? Do we get a pass?

[Eliot Rosewater]

Originally Posted by later12

Really? You don't think it's possible that the particularly tight deficit rules of questionable economic inflexibility and the nature of the correction mechanism dictated by the EU Commission could be - even in part - a sop dem Deustchen Volke, as Merkel eyes her fate?

No doubt - but I was discussing what recommendations the Commission would give when dealing with a country under the terms of the treaty, rather than the creation of the treaty itself.

[latenia]

Astonishingly poor decision-making in setting a date before the French presidential election on May 6. Francois Hollande is a clear favourite to oust Sarkozy and he has stated that he will rewrite the treaty when he is elected.

I predict a massive legal and logistical sh1tstorm... (Not that there wouldn't have been one anyway.)

"I will renegotiate [the fiscal pact], improve it, then ratify it," Hollande told The Guardian at a recent meeting of centre-left leaders in Paris.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2012...=ILCNETTXT3487

[Dirk Gently]

Originally Posted by latenia

"I will renegotiate [the fiscal pact], improve it, then ratify it," Hollande told The Guardian at a recent meeting of centre-left leaders in Paris.

sounds familiar. I wouldn't worry about it.

[latenia]

Don't worry about a referendum being called for something which won't even exist in the same form a few weeks later? Or is it going to be worded so that whatever form the treaty may take now or at any point in the future will apply to Ireland, depending on who's in charge of Frence or Germany? What if by some freak result Le Pen gets in? Should I worry then?

[Scofflaw]

Originally Posted by Dirk Gently

which is defined by the commission

Who would you prefer it defined by? The Commission's procedures for determining excessive deficit are well established and transparent, and have been in place since Maastricht. While they've been flouted, I don't recall them ever having been applied unfairly.

Originally Posted by Dirk Gently

measures which are also defined by the commission

Again, not really. The article being cited applies to a fairly specific set of circumstances - a breach of the excessive deficit criterion within the excessive deficit procedure. Under most circumstances what applies is the national plan, either ad hoc or as part of the national "correction mechanism", as per Articles 3.3 and 5.1:

2. The rules mentioned under paragraph 1 shall take effect in the national law of the Contracting Parties at the latest one year after the entry into force of this Treaty through provisions of binding force and permanent character, preferably constitutional, or otherwise guaranteed to be fully respected and adhered to throughout the national budgetary processes. The Contracting Parties shall put in place at national level the correction mechanism mentioned in paragraph 1.e) on the basis of common principles to be proposed by the European Commission, concerning in particular the nature, the size and the time-frame of the corrective action to be undertaken, also in the case of exceptional circumstances, and the role and independence of the institutions responsible at national level for monitoring the observance of the rules. This mechanism shall fully respect the prerogatives of national Parliaments.

1. The Contracting Parties that are subject to an excessive deficit procedure under the European Union Treaties shall put in place a budgetary and economic partnership programme including a detailed description of the structural reforms which must be put in place and implemented to ensure an effective and durable correction of their excessive deficits. The content and format of these programmes shall be defined in European Union law. Their submission to the European Commission and the Council for endorsement and their monitoring will take place within the context of the existing surveillance procedures of the Stability and Growth Pact.

Originally Posted by Dirk Gently

what happens if /when we are in excessive deficit as a result of following the fiscal treaty? Do we get a pass?

Apologies - not sure what this refers to?

cordially,
Scofflaw

[Permabear]

Originally Posted by latenia

Don't worry about a referendum being called for something which won't even exist in the same form a few weeks later?

The wording of the referendum specifically states that "The State may ratify the treaty ... done in Brussels on March 2nd, 2012." In other words, we are voting only on the document that the Taoiseach has already signed.

[oscarBravo]

Originally Posted by Permabear

The wording of the referendum specifically states that "The State may ratify the treaty ... done in Brussels on March 2nd, 2012." In other words, we are voting only on the document that the Taoiseach has already signed.

Also, big talk before an election notwithstanding, the new French president will come under a ****load of pressure to go with the flow when the time comes.

[Godge]

Originally Posted by hatrickpatrick

You already know my view Scoffy but I may as well chip in here: If it involves giving a body outside the state of Ireland to override voters inside the state of Ireland in any way, I'll be rejecting it.

Do you want us to withdraw from the EU completely because some functions have already become EU ones? How about the UN? Want us to go it alone there as well? Or our other international obligations?

If you answer yes, fair play, I can understand the madness of your policy position. If you answer no, I can't understand why you are objecting to this particular peice of sovereignty loss and not others?

[latenia]

Originally Posted by Permabear

The wording of the referendum specifically states that "The State may ratify the treaty ... done in Brussels on March 2nd, 2012." In other words, we are voting only on the document that the Taoiseach has already signed.

You've just emphasised my point rather than counter it. The document Enda Kenny signed could well by toilet paper by the summer.

Originally Posted by oscarBravo

Also, big talk before an election notwithstanding, the new French president will come under a ****load of pressure to go with the flow when the time comes.

So we go ahead with a referendum on the presumption that one of the most respected politicians in Europe is lying and that everything will be grand anyway rather than waiting for a couple of months.

[Dirk Gently]

Originally Posted by Scofflaw

Apologies - not sure what this refers to?

cordially,
Scofflaw

Not sure myself seen as how we will (in theory) be out of the current terms of our bailout in 3 years.

What happens then though, is it up to national governments to balance or return a surplus and stay within the parameters set out by this treaty by using their own domestic policies, or is there a programme of directives set out here which we follow to achieve the targets. If the latter, what happens if we follow the directives yet still don't meet the targets. For example, we cut too much or tax too much under direction and fail to balance the budget.

Basically what I'm asking is, after 3 years is it up to us to meet the targets or are we instructed on how to meet them.

Are we not dependant on the trokia anyway to even be in a position to start clean in 3 years. A lot of it seems to be out of our hands, which isn't necessarily a bad thing provided our troika commitments cut the deficit in time, which is very debatable. We could walk into this thing already evoking article 7 from day 1.

[oscarBravo]

Originally Posted by latenia

So we go ahead with a referendum on the presumption that one of the most respected politicians in Europe is lying and that everything will be grand anyway rather than waiting for a couple of months.

Alternatively, we bring a process of multilateral ratification of an international treaty to a screeching halt because of the posturing of an election candidate.