[Run_to_da_hills]

"Underscoring its desire to keep U.S. aircraft carriers from the Persian Gulf, a senior Iranian military commander today announced his possible plan to ambush the American fleet.

Chalk this one up to more bluster, or part of a mounting back and forth rhetoric headed nowhere good, either way — Tehran plans to rely on its subs.

Lieutenant Commander of the Iranian Army's Self-Sufficiency Jihad, Rear Admiral Farhad Amiri told FARS that Iran has the finest electric diesel submarines in the world, and that while the U.S. has focused on Tehran's "astonishing surface capabilities," it has forgotten about the underwater threat".

Could this mean that Israel is getting ready to do a repeat as it has done in the past by shooting at a US ship as a false flag. It seems more likely Israel would fire on an American ship than for Iran to fire on it.

[Tzar Chasm]

this was posted in another thread on this topic

Iran Target Of ‘False Flag’ Strategy?

This would be a perfect opportunity for a false flag as Iran has already told the US navy to fcuk off and not return into the gulf, and Israel and the US are playing good cop, bad cop at the moment with the US calling off the joint military exercise with Israel over Obama being dissed by Israel, whether its actually pulled off or not is yet to be seen.

the USS vincensies is the logical target for a 'Gulf of Tonkin' style incident

[stuar]

Just a few articles to add, I'm wondering what type of game is being played out here, Israel saying bombing Iran a long way off, another US carrier in the persian sea, Iran seemingly ready to torpedo them, false flag allegations flying around.

Israel Says Decision on Iran Attack ‘Far Off’
http://blogs.voanews.com/breaking-ne...ack-far-off-4/

http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/...v7P_story.html

ANOTHER US CARRIER ARRIVES IN THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ
http://www.agi.it/english-version/wo...rait_of_hormuz

USS Abraham Lincoln sails into waters off Iran
http://edition.cnn.com/2012/01/19/wo...ier/index.html

U.S. Dismisses Iranian Warning Against Navy Carrier in Gulf
http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2012...rrier-in-gulf/

Iranian subs laying in wait for US Aircraft carriers in the Persian Gulf
http://www.examiner.com/city-buzz-in...e-persian-gulf


Iranian Submarines' Ambush for US Aircraft Carriers in Persian Gulf

http://english.farsnews.com/newstext.php?nn=9010171671

US acts to hold Israel back from striking Iran.
http://www.debka.com/article/21650/

U.S. pushing world to the brink of world war
http://english.pravda.ru/opinion/col...f_world_war-0/

Details of Obama’s letter to Iran released
http://tehrantimes.com/politics/9469...-iran-released

Lets wait and see how all this plays out.

[Danpad]

I don't even think it's much of a CT now, it's going to happen. If Iraq(1+2), Afghanistan, and all of the Arab 'spontaneous uprisings' (I know, sounds silly when you say it out loud doesn't it!) are anything to go by, the untied nations of USA, UK and Israel are itching to reduce Iran back to the stone age and can't wait to do so.

As soon as the other chess pieces are on board, coerced and assured slices of the pie the end game will commence.

By the way, I intially spelled 'united' wrong and then looked at it. I thought it quite apt to leave the word as it is.

Time to stock up on coal and briquettes I think.

[AngryBollix]

Originally Posted by Danpad

I don't even think it's much of a CT now, it's going to happen. If Iraq(1+2), Afghanistan, and all of the Arab 'spontaneous uprisings' (I know, sounds silly when you say it out loud doesn't it!) are anything to go by, the untied nations of USA, UK and Israel are itching to reduce Iran back to the stone age and can't wait to do so.

As soon as the other chess pieces are on board, coerced and assured slices of the pie the end game will commence.

By the way, I intially spelled 'united' wrong and then looked at it. I thought it quite apt to leave the word as it is.

Time to stock up on coal and briquettes I think.

It does look almost inevitable at this point.

If and when it does happen, to what extent will it expand?

[Tzar Chasm]

The russians are starting to make noises about the threats to Iran, so this could turn into a right mess

Is here any parallel to history onthis one

Afghanistan == Rhineland
Iraq == Czekesloavakia
Iran == Poland??????

[stuar]

Originally Posted by AngryBollix

It does look almost inevitable at this point.

If and when it does happen, to what extent will it expand?

That's a big question, everything is in place, everyone is ready, it could kick off any minute, but where will it lead?

I think nuclear weapons will be used, the US already gave the green light for use in conventional warfare a long time ago using mini nukes.

Russia have a fleet of ships in port in Syria, Israel has its "Samson Option", Iran has told the US to stay out of the Gulf, sumarines can take down the biggest of the US's ships.

Militarily tha US stronger, but a small number of Iranian men with missiles can take down any US super structure.

Many nations will be drawn in and it would be WW3 and would affect the world in lots of ways.

Best get yourself a bicycle and duct tape!

[Jaafa]

Originally Posted by stuar

That's a big question, everything is in place, everyone is ready, it could kick off any minute, but where will it lead?

I think nuclear weapons will be used, the US already gave the green light for use in conventional warfare a long time ago using mini nukes.

Russia have a fleet of ships in port in Syria, Israel has its "Samson Option", Iran has told the US to stay out of the Gulf, sumarines can take down the biggest of the US's ships.

Militarily tha US stronger, but a small number of Iranian men with missiles can take down any US super structure.

Many nations will be drawn in and it would be WW3 and would affect the world in lots of ways.

Best get yourself a bicycle and duct tape!

No they won't. There's no benefit for anyone to use them.

[stuar]

Originally Posted by Jaafa

No they won't. There's no benefit for anyone to use them.

Mini nukes in conventional warfare have been given the green light by US congress a few years ago, and "if" war breaks out with Iran I don't see why the US would refrain from using them on Irans underground bunkers.
Here's an example of official US policy
http://www.countercurrents.org/us-ch...sky190107.html

The stated objective is to:

"ensure the most efficient use of force and provide US leaders with a broader range of [nuclear and conventional] strike options to address immediate contingencies. Integration of conventional and nuclear forces is therefore crucial to the success of any comprehensive strategy. This integration will ensure optimal targeting, minimal collateral damage, and reduce the probability of escalation." (Doctrine for Joint Nuclear Operations, p. JP 3-12-13)

Mini nukes have been an option in "conventional" warfare by the US for a number of years now, it's just if they start using them and Russia takes a disliking to it the bigger regular ones will come out to do what they do best.

Also if 1000's of conventional missiles start landing on Israel it will adopt its "Samson Option" or Israels touting of their "mini nukes".

“Because stopping a nuclear Iran is so important, all options are open. All the possibilities.” Said the white house spokesman … But what about stopping a nuclear Israel. Why nobody is troubled with addressing that issue … and what are the options “on the table” for Israel in case she decided to hit Iran with those mini nukes Israeli military experts have been raving about …

http://www.pacificfreepress.com/news...a-doctors.html

The Samson Option

The Samson Option is a term used to describe Israel’s alleged deterrence strategy of massive retaliation with nuclear weapons as a “last resort” against nations whose military attacks threaten its existence, and possibly against other targets as well.[1] Israel refuses to admit it has nuclear weapons or to describe how it would use them, an official policy of nuclear ambiguity, also known as "nuclear opacity." This has made it difficult for anyone outside the Israeli government to definitively describe its true nuclear policy, while still allowing Israel to influence the perceptions, strategies and actions of other governments.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Samson_Option

Israel are mad enough to think it will benefit them and whatever benefits the US benefits the US, its a frightening scenario, but very possible and already a policy of war, the deterrence factor is no longer here, simply they have them and what better nation than Iran to use them, especially since they have underground bunkers.

When Israel comes under attack with 1000's of missiles it won't hesitate to pull out a few mini's to show its military madness.
When a few USS aircraft carriers are at the bottom of the sea, all options will be on the table.

Hopefully your right, but the way this will escalate wont be Iraq/Afghanistan/Libya, none of which could really threaten the mighty US war machine like Iran can.

[weisses]

Originally Posted by stuar

When a few USS aircraft carriers are at the bottom of the sea, all options will be on the table.

That i not a likely scenario i think ... at least not executred by those diesel subs Iran has imo ... or am i missing something here

[Jaafa]

Originally Posted by weisses

That i not a likely scenario i think ... at least not executred by those diesel subs Iran has imo ... or am i missing something here

Disel subs alone no. But if Iran were to attack one aircraft carrier group, with subs, a hundred fishing sized boats armed with anti ship missiles, and launch say a dozen MIRV Ballistic missiles, all on one target it's hard to see anything surviving that. If they are capable of organizing such an attack is another thing.

Have you heard of the Millennium Challenge war games?

Red received an ultimatum from Blue, essentially a surrender document, demanding a response within 24 hours. Thus warned of Blue's approach, Red used a fleet of small boats to determine the position of Blue's fleet by the second day of the exercise. In a preemptive strike, Red launched a massive salvo of cruise missiles that overwhelmed the Blue forces' electronic sensors and destroyed sixteen warships. This included one aircraft carrier, ten cruisers and five of six amphibious ships. An equivalent success in a real conflict would have resulted in the deaths of over 20,000 service personnel. Soon after the cruise missile offensive, another significant portion of Blue's navy was "sunk" by an armada of small Red boats, which carried out both conventional and suicide attacks that capitalized on Blue's inability to detect them as well as expected.

At this point, the exercise was suspended, Blue's ships were "re-floated", and the rules of engagement were changed; this was later justified by General Peter Pace as follows: "You kill me in the first day and I sit there for the next 13 days doing nothing, or you put me back to life and you get 13 more days' worth of experiment out of me. Which is a better way to do it?"[2] After the reset, both sides were ordered to follow predetermined plans of action.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Millennium_Challenge_2002

[weisses]

I don't think any Carrier strike group over there will be caught off guard ... false flag maybe but not by the Iranians

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Carrier_strike_group

That"s a pretty large arsenal and their satellite surveillance .. But who knows ..maybe they will look for an excuse to retaliate

And no i didn't here of the Millennium Challenge war games ... at least now they know what could be waiting for them

[Jaafa]

Originally Posted by weisses

I don't think any Carrier strike group over there will be caught off guard ... false flag maybe but not by the Iranians

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Carrier_strike_group

That"s a pretty large arsenal and their satellite surveillance .. But who knows ..maybe they will look for an excuse to retaliate

And no i didn't here of the Millennium Challenge war games ... at least now they know what could be waiting for them

Thing is the Iranian boats could easily be disguised as fishing boats, and other normal looking boats. In the narrow straight they could get very close before being recognized. Hell even marked Iranian gunships managed to get within a few hundred yards of US boats without being shot at. This is probably the Iranians trying to get the US ships used to them being that close, so when they need they can take advantage of it

If an attack such as the one described in the above war games were to happen, I'd see no other options for the US but to retreat or engage in total war. 20000 dead in one week? The US hasn't seen anything like that since world war 2.

[weisses]

Originally Posted by Jaafa

Thing is the Iranian boats could easily be disguised as fishing boats, and other normal looking boats. In the narrow straight they could get very close before being recognized. Hell even marked Iranian gunships managed to get within a few hundred yards of US boats without being shot at. This is probably the Iranians trying to get the US ships used to them being that close, so when they need they can take advantage of it

The strait of Hormuz is gonna be a big bottleneck indeed

I wonder what kind off protection they have in place at this moment when sailing through it

[weisses]