Scottish Independence - What say you?

dlofnep · 13-01-2012 6:24pm

44leto wrote: »

I as an Irish man says who the fukc am I to say to a Jock you should leave the union.

But as a rule I hate nationalism and nationalists.

It's not a question of nationalism, it's a questioning of being able to control your own political and economic affairs.

But if you oppose nationalism - you also oppose Cameron who is a British nationalist. A point of note.

Ellis Dee · 13-01-2012 6:25pm

Vladimir Kurtains wrote: »

Salmond knows Scots won't vote for full independence. Why do you think he's pushing for the devo-max option to be included rather than Cameron's straight yes or no?

Alec Salmond is an admirably astute politician and his wanting to include the third (devo-max) option is a master stroke and a brilliant example of long-term vision. It brings Scotland that much closer to full independence and allows many or most of the institutions of a sovereign state to be put in place, developed and honed so that the country is well equipped with the instruments it needs to respond to changes beyond its borders when the need arises. The more the Tories and the other unionist parties try to remove that third option from the referendum, the more determined the Scots will become to go their own way.:)

As a student of history, one parallel that comes to mind is that of Finland, which was part of Russia until 1917. However, it had considerable autonomy, even its own currency, and all of the apparatus of state that was needed when the Czar's empire finally collapsed. Finland was able to declare itself independent almost immediately and successfully defend that independence against the attacks of the Bolsheviks and their local allies. :cool:

The same will apply in a quasi-independent Scotland when, as I suspect will inevitably happen, the UK collapses under the sheer weight of its own contradictions.;)

Given that there are now more pandas in Scotland than Tory MPs, Salmond is right when he says the days when the Tories could dictate to the Scots are over and done with.:)

mongdesade · 13-01-2012 6:34pm

Unfortunately I believe if Scotland gained full independence, the next step, much like our own island in the 20's would be civil war, two tribes with divided loyalties, one to Rome the other to the Crown...
Thoughts ?

dlofnep · 13-01-2012 6:35pm

amacachi wrote: »

If (as many would like) county and city councils were abolished and larger local authorities with more power replaced them would it be coo' if the newly created areas wanted independence?

If there was logic to it - it would be cool. But your arbitrary, abstract nation doesn't seem logical. There is certainly logic behind an independent Scotland however. It is a historic nation, with it's own devolved parliament (which is governed very well).

I do love these hypothetical independence scenarios. Do you oppose the principle of independence? Would you have opposed the breakup of the USSR for example?

amacachi wrote: »

As far as I can tell Cameron was simply stating a matter of fact, that Scotland can't legally simply secede from the Union.

I doubt the Scots care, and if they vote for independence - then they will have a mandate to do so, regardless of what Cameron believes.

Chips Lovell · 13-01-2012 6:36pm

dlofnep wrote: »

As a back-up? It doesn't mean Salmond doesn't aspire to see independence in it's entirety.

He knows that's an unrealistic aspiration though. Even around 60% of his own voters don't favour it.

I don't really understand the push toward maximum devolution by the Scots though. Scotland is a net beneficiary from the UK, so they'd be worse off if they had finance themselves.

It's not like the Catalans, who're pushing for something very similar, who are net contributors to the Spanish exchequer.

Cavehill Red · 13-01-2012 6:38pm

mongdesade wrote: »

Unfortunately I believe if Scotland gained full independence, the next step, much like our own island in the 20's would be civil war, two tribes with divided loyalties, one to Rome the other to the Crown...
Thoughts ?

Little chance of that. A more concerning parallel might be with Ireland post-independence in the 40s to 60s, small, isolated, and dominated by a single political party that decays into venal, self-serving corruption.

dlofnep · 13-01-2012 6:41pm

Vladimir Kurtains wrote: »

He knows that's an unrealistic aspiration though. Even around 60% of his own voters don't favour it.

His goal is to make it a reality. Whether it is possible to achieve, that's a different question.

Vladimir Kurtains wrote: »

I don't really understand the push toward maximum devolution by the Scots though. Scotland is a net beneficiary from the UK, so they'd be worse off if they had finance themselves

They will have their own tax raising powers, and would have the ability to entice investment through a lowering corporation tax. Also, it is to be noted - that the figures that cite Scotland as a net beneficiary, do not take into account the total oil revenues, but rather the per capita or geographical proportional revenues.

Here is one report: http://www.scotsman.com/news/north_sea_oil_revenues_would_put_scotland_in_the_black_report_1_476785

The economic argument of course isn't the only argument. The ability to determine your own affairs is a powerful motivator, especially when you are under Governance of the Tory party, which returned only one MP in Scotland.

Pissmire · 13-01-2012 6:42pm

I think a discussion on the subject on an Irish based forum is fine, but voting on it just isn't right.

TiGeR KiNgS · 13-01-2012 6:43pm

dlofnep wrote: »

Well - Westminster was already taking about giving powers to lower it in Scotland and in the north, so this wouldn't really change that.

No, Only for Northern Ireland as a special case to compete with the land border and that 30% of the Northern economy is the public sector. The tax cut would incentive private investment.

If Scotland cut its corporation tax then companies would begin to move across the land border with England forcing a tax cut that the UK cant afford as they have a high debt to to GDP ratio right now.

ejmaztec · 13-01-2012 6:44pm

Chuck Stone wrote: »

Sounds like a bureaucratic nightmare tbh. Will there be border surfing like we have here?

Will they have different VAT and income tax rates? What about the stuff that the royals own and military bases?

What's in it for the average Scotch person?

yeah Scottish I know.

What about the ones that prefer a pint of heavy?:P

Sneaky bugger

Chips Lovell · 13-01-2012 6:48pm

dlofnep wrote: »

They will have their own tax raising powers, and would have the ability to entice investment through a lowering corporation tax. Also, it is to be noted - that the figures that cite Scotland as a net beneficiary, do not take into account the total oil revenues, but rather the per capita or geographical proportional revenues.

Here is one report: http://www.scotsman.com/news/north_sea_oil_revenues_would_put_scotland_in_the_black_report_1_476785

Here's something a little more recent, that argues that even if Scotland get's the lion's share of oil (which seems unlikely), it'll still be running a deficit:

So, an independent Scotland would in fact be a long way from surplus. In 2009-10 its deficit, even assuming that it kept 91 per cent of North Sea revenues, would have stood at 11 per cent of GDP — the same as the figure for the UK as a whole.

What's more, even if Scotland did get Salmond's desired slice of the North Sea — which would comprise around one-fifth of its GDP — it would then be slave to oil and gas production, as well as volatility in their prices. That's all very well in good years like 2008-09, when North Sea revenues totalled £12.9 billion. But what happens if revenues drop to 1991-92 levels of just £0.6 billion? As Fraser's said before, ‘Scotland would swap rule from London for rule by OPEC’.

I'm pretty sure stuff like this is going to get a good airing if/when the campaign gets underway. People generally vote with their pockets.

ejmaztec · 13-01-2012 6:52pm

There will have to be an amicable division of the armed forces, so that Scotland gets all of the nuclear subs, a load of ships and a pile of aircraft.

Cavehill Red · 13-01-2012 6:53pm

Vladimir Kurtains wrote: »

Here's something a little more recent, that argues that even if Scotland get's the lion's share of oil (which seems unlikely), it'll still be running a deficit.

Pretty much every country runs a deficit, funded by state borrowing (bonds, etc) on the promise of future income (ie tomorrow's tax take.)

This in itself is no impediment to independence. Even the Torygraph has accepted that Scotland is likely to have no greater debt or deficit to income ratio than Britain currently has as a whole.

The Jammy dodger · 13-01-2012 6:53pm

I say it would cause an awful lot of harm to the peace process if the north sees the whole of Scotland getting their independence. There would be a lot of tantrums thrown around.

44leto · 13-01-2012 6:55pm

dlofnep wrote: »

It's not a question of nationalism, it's a questioning of being able to control your own political and economic affairs.

But if you oppose nationalism - you also oppose Cameron who is a British nationalist. A point of note.[/

Not really what David Cameron is, is a United Kingdom unionist. Would I be an Irish nationalist if I opposed, lets say, Corkonian independence. A point to note.

Belguim looks like it is splitting into 2 countries, although its none of my business, something in me, thinks that is a shame.

Almaviva · 13-01-2012 6:56pm

They should learn from Ireland's mistake.

Stop dreaming Scotland and appreciate a good thing when you have it.

LK_Dave · 13-01-2012 6:58pm

dlofnep wrote: »

"The days of Tory PMs telling Scotland what to do are over" - Alex Salmond.

When was the last time the Tories had a majority in Scotland? Its been a labour cesspit for years. Just look at the last PM they send down, Grodon Brown. With that calibre of politician, Scotland will end up more of an economic basket case than the Rep of Ireland is in half the time. But if that is what the people want, give it to them.

truthspeaker · 13-01-2012 6:59pm

Gilldog wrote: »

Actually, with ownership of the North Sea oil, an independant Scotland would be in a very good financial position. I heard someone on radio a few days ago estimating it to be about about 25 billion barrels worth.

I say go for it ye mad Scots!

It will be interesting to see how this all unfolds, im sure northern Ireland will also be looking on with batted breath, I personally think the scotts and northern Ireland should be left to get on with it, England has held their hands for long enough.

amacachi · 13-01-2012 6:59pm

dlofnep wrote: »

If there was logic to it - it would be cool. But your arbitrary, abstract nation doesn't seem logical. There is certainly logic behind an independent Scotland however. It is a historic nation, with it's own devolved parliament (which is governed very well).

It's easy to govern well when being subsidised. The free college and better NHS in Scotland is a sore point which will be addressed.
Just out of interest, had Labour not given them their own parliament would that be a mark against why they should be independent? Quite frankly I don't give a **** about a flag or where the government makes its decisions, once I have the same rights as my neighbours and those closer to where the decisions are made. Scotland's had the best of both worlds for a while now, it would be most silly to bite the hand that feeds them.

I do love these hypothetical independence scenarios. Do you oppose the principle of independence? Would you have opposed the breakup of the USSR for example?

I believe in self-determination. SELF, not national.

I doubt the Scots care, and if they vote for independence - then they will have a mandate to do so, regardless of what Cameron believes.

I'm pretty sure that a fundamental alteration in the scale and make-up of a country becomes something of an international issue, especially when only one side of those involved follows the rules.

ejmaztec · 13-01-2012 7:03pm

Scotland's been bled dry for centuries by the sassenachs. The only things left are whisky, Scotch pies, deep-fried Mars bars and 5 litres of oil.

William Wallace would be turning in all his graves.:(

jaffacakesyum · 13-01-2012 7:09pm

The Jammy dodger wrote: »

I say it would cause an awful lot of harm to the peace process if the north sees the whole of Scotland getting their independence. There would be a lot of tantrums thrown around.

I never thought of this. Good point. I'm in support of any country that wants independence so long as it's a majority vote.

If Scotland gained independence from the UK, however, what would happen in the North do you think? More violence a la the Troubles maybe.

Cavehill Red · 13-01-2012 7:12pm

44leto wrote: »

Not really what David Cameron is, is a United Kingdom unionist. Would I be an Irish nationalist if I opposed, lets say, Corkonian independence. A point to note.

Belguim looks like it is splitting into 2 countries, although its none of my business, something in me, thinks that is a shame.

Did you feel the same about Sudan splitting?
Flanders and Wallonia have, like Scotland, longstanding separate identities as nations. If they wish to be together or apart, I wish them well, nothing shameful in either option.
In Britain, for over 1000 years, there have been three constituent nations of longstanding identity - England, Scotland and Wales. Other regional identities are of much lesser impact and importance, or have been lost to history (where is the Mercian independence movement?)
In Ireland, the single dominant national identity for many hundreds of years has been the island of Ireland as a single nation. That only ended with the creation of Ulster (rather than Irish) unionism and partition about a century back, and is still disputed by many.
So the comparison with Corkonian independence doesn't really compute, since there is no such sense of Corkonian nationhood of longstanding.

NinjaK · 13-01-2012 7:14pm

Freedom should be a basic right of any people, so yes

Cavehill Red · 13-01-2012 7:16pm

jaffacakesyum wrote: »

I never thought of this. Good point. I'm in support of any country that wants independence so long as it's a majority vote.

If Scotland gained independence from the UK, however, what would happen in the North do you think? More violence a la the Troubles maybe.

Much debate on all aspects of this on the excellent Slugger O'Toole website of Northern politics. Consensus is 'wait and see', but also that it won't tangibly change the game in NI immediately.

Toby Take a Bow · 13-01-2012 7:16pm

LK_Dave wrote: »

When was the last time the Tories had a majority in Scotland? Its been a labour cesspit for years. Just look at the last PM they send down, Grodon Brown. With that calibre of politician, Scotland will end up more of an economic basket case than the Rep of Ireland is in half the time. But if that is what the people want, give it to them.

Is he not talking about Tories in government having a say over Scottish affairs? I know devolution has limited this, but laws are still passed by the British parliament and would (I guess) have an influence on Scotland.

As for the OP: whatever the Scottish people want, I'd be for that. I wouldn't be hopeful as to how a Scottish currency would perform after independence, but it might help themselves to have their own currency. I'm also unsure if the oil money is still pouring in to Aberdeen. If it is, I would think they should go for it. Scotland doesn't seem to have got a lot from its oil money, and there's a lot of discussion at the moment that it hasn't really benefitted the economy of Aberdeenshire. With an independent Scotland, this (theoretically) could be used to benefit the Scottish.

All this depends on the people who get into government being competent and not just acting in the exact same manner as the people who ruled over them previously (a la Ireland).

Doc Ruby · 13-01-2012 7:16pm

Well done Scotland for bringing it this far, and hopefully they will finish it. I fully support an independent Scotland and look forward to Ireland welcoming them back to full nationhood.

John Doe1 · 13-01-2012 7:18pm

As someone of scottish descent on both sides, I would love to see scotland stand on its own two feet. One thing is for sure they will be good with money:D

Ghost Buster · 13-01-2012 7:18pm

Kevok wrote: »

Why is there no "I'm not Scottish it doesn't matter what I think" option?

There is. Dont read on and dont vote...

losthorizon · 13-01-2012 7:20pm

Confab wrote: »

It's ridiculous, it'd like Munster declaring their independence. The economy would be ruined, the currency would have to be changed, hundreds of thousands of jobs lost, and all because of a bit of PR and misplaced national pride.

ER Im from Munster. Thanks Leinster for Bertie, Cowen & Lenihan! You really increased our prosperity.

Maybe an independent Munster would be good. We surely couldnt **** it up as badly as those Leinster feckers.

LordSutch · 13-01-2012 7:25pm

A/ Its all very well with some folk hoping that the UK breaks up, but the consequenses are many and varied and far reaching, (Britain on the world stage will not be Britain on the world stage anymore) and no doubt there would be consequesces for us here too. A newly independent revenue generating Scotland may well be a dynamic player in the fight for High tech jobs, jobs that they may try & poach from us here in the Republic. The ramifications of a UK breakup are very serious indeed, so Cameron is dead right to force Salmonds hand, the referendum should be called sooner rather than later before anymore damage is done, and as regards the reference to the 2nd half of the term, this was not in the SNP manifesto, it was an "add on" just prior to the election, and anyway, who is Alex Salmond to dictate the date of a referendum which could (possibly)? breakup the United Kingdom !!!

B/ On another point - It will be interesting to see just who is going to be the pro Union voice? might David Cameron himself (Scottish heritage) be the best mouthpiece for the Pro-Union lobby? or might he push even more Scots into the arms of the SNP? Or what about ex PM good old 'Gordon Brown' a real Scot with a Labour background, might he be a better Pro-Union mouthpiece? Or what about ex Liberal leader & another true Scot 'David Steele'? then there's 'David Mundell' who is the only Conservative Member of Parliament representing a Scottish constituency!

Ironic that those who want a so called 'United Ireland' say that its sheer madness having two Parliaments/ two Economies one island, and yet, many of those same people say that Scotland should break away from the rest of their island, then create a seperate economy, and become a seperate entity on the same island !!!

Scottish Independence - What say you?

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