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05-07-2011, 13:36   #1
kfallon
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The Arc

I can't see past Pour Moi for The Arc. 3yo's have dominated the race in the last 15 years or so and usually it is won by a 3yo who has won a G1 over 1m 4f by mid July. So we're looking at Pour Moi, Treasure Beach or a possible runaway winner of the Grand Prix de Paris on Thursday week.

I think a lot of it has to do with the weight-for-age and that the 3yo have really strengthened and matured come October and so are possibly built more like 4yo's come the latter part of the season but still receive WFA.

Also the last 2 Epsom Derby winners have gone on to win The Arc.

So what does everyone else fancy for the race?
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05-07-2011, 17:11   #2
UrbanSea
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Last 2 derby winners have gone on to win the Arc but one was a freak and last years Arc was brutal.
Pour Moi looks a good bet but I can't back him for the simple fact that he has to be ridden from back of the field. If the field is about 20 horses that could be very off putting,with the race famous for having traffic problems
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05-07-2011, 18:41   #3
Harry Angstrom
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I decided a good few years back that I'd only ever back French-trained 3yos for the Arc. Decided on this after doing my brains on English/Irish trained horses in the late 80s and early 90s. Obviously the last 2 Arc winners were Irish and English trained but the likes of Carnegie, Peintre Celebre, Montjeu, Dalakhani, Rail Link, Zarkava etc. have given me a nice enough profit on it in recent years.

Overall it's a 3yo's race and the French horses are laid out all season for it. Pour Moi looks to have a great chance and will probably be a much shorter price on the day if So You Think doesn't turn up but I think Baraan could be ante-post value at 14/1. He beat Pour Moi at Longchamp in April and he lost about 10 lengths at the start of the French Derby last month but finished really well to get 3rd. If he wins the Grand Prix de Paris next week he'll be a lot shorter for the Arc.
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05-07-2011, 21:00   #4
tryfix
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The only stand out one at this stage is Pour Moi , just think of him passing the post at Epsom he was in a different class to the rest of the field . It's not too hard to see him him doing the same in the Arc . Every year people get excited about some of the older horses for the Arc and end up backing some of them in hope of a good price . You would be hard pressed to make a profit backing older horses in the race , they do win but it's very hard to pick the right one . English or Irish Derby winners on the other hand have a great record , but they have to be top Notch . Is Pour Moi top notch , i think so .

Quote:
1999 Montjeu 3 Michael Kinane John Hammond Michael Tabor 2:38.5
2000 Sinndar 3 Johnny Murtagh John Oxx HH Aga Khan IV 2:25.8
2001 Sakhee 4 Frankie Dettori Saeed bin Suroor Godolphin 2:36.1
2002 Marienbard 5 Frankie Dettori Saeed bin Suroor Godolphin 2:26.7
2003 Dalakhani 3 Christophe Soumillon Alain de Royer-Dupré HH Aga Khan IV 2:32.3
2004 Bago 3 Thierry Gillet Jonathan Pease Niarchos Family 2:25.0
2005 Hurricane Run 3 Kieren Fallon André Fabre Michael Tabor 2:27.4
2006 Rail Link 3 Stéphane Pasquier André Fabre Khalid Abdullah 2:26.3
2007 Dylan Thomas 4 Kieren Fallon Aidan O'Brien Magnier / Tabor 2:28.5
2008 Zarkava 3 Christophe Soumillon Alain de Royer-Dupré HH Aga Khan IV 2:28.8
2009 Sea the Stars 3 Michael Kinane John Oxx Christopher Tsui 2:26.3
2010 Workforce 3 Ryan L. Moore Sir Michael Stoute Prince Khalid Abdullah 2:35.3

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Prix_de_l'Arc_de_Triomphe
There are always the fillies but they have a poor strike rate , i like the French Filly Golden Lilac . The only older horse that appeals is So You Think if he runs (unlikely) as he has the profile of a tough older horse . Workforce shouldn't be good enough to win it two years in a row , not even the great Montjeu could do that . What about the Japanese horses does anyone know who they are likely to be sending over , you will get a better price about their quality horses than the likes of a midday or the Leger winner .


Just looking at the betting 9/1 for St Nicholas Abbey in the Arc , 7/4 for the King George . Wonder what price you would get for the Arc straight after the King George if he wins it . If you had a bet at the 9/1 now you could lay it off on betfair after the King George if he won the race and you'ld definitely beat the 7/4 on offer in the king George . Would that work .
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05-07-2011, 22:37   #5
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I've 25 each way on St Nic for the Arc at 33/1. Put it on after he was beaten on his reappearance this year.
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05-07-2011, 23:29   #6
tryfix
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Quote:
Originally Posted by UrbanSea View Post
I've 25 each way on St Nic for the Arc at 33/1. Put it on after he was beaten on his reappearance this year.
Tasty , he looked like a monster at Chester and Epsom was a let down even though he won . Even if he's just a classy stayer he could easily run into a place like Westerner did a few years ago , he finishes like a train . Do you use Betfair , i'm a bit old school but if i had more time and money i'd enjoy hunting for value on it .

Hopefully Moore won't be on him if Workforce runs . A nice cool Jockey on him like Soumillon or Colm O Donohue might keep him balanced and out of trouble .

Last edited by tryfix; 05-07-2011 at 23:39.
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06-07-2011, 01:10   #7
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Im not the biggest fan of bet fair,just something I don't like about it but I do occasionally lay.
Ive said before,I don't like Moore riding for Coolmore ahead of some of the lads there. Colm would be my choice,hasn't put a foot wrong.
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15-08-2011, 09:31   #8
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Galikova is running today, yet again over 1m2???? Am I wrong that she looks like she needs 1m4?
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15-08-2011, 10:12   #9
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Quite correct but should still have the class to do it over 10. Have you a link to the card?
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15-08-2011, 10:23   #10
kfallon
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Quote:
Originally Posted by UrbanSea View Post
Quite correct but should still have the class to do it over 10. Have you a link to the card?
http://horses.sportinglife.com/Racec...453718,00.html
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15-08-2011, 10:38   #11
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www.attheraces.com/card.aspx?raceid=658996&meetingid=48389&date=2011-08-15&ref=mainracenavigation&refsite=&nav=racecards
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15-08-2011, 11:59   #12
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Strong race. She may get away with it in a weak race but not in that,she couldn't quite get to Golden Lilac last time.
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15-08-2011, 12:03   #13
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Looks a strong group 1 for Goldikova.

Planteur each way for me at 12/1

http://horses.sportinglife.com/Racec...453719,00.html
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15-08-2011, 12:11   #14
TheMilkyPirate
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I'm all over golden lilac at 5/4
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15-08-2011, 14:42   #15
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Galikova wins at 9/4 with Golden Lilac third at 5/4 fav
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