[rocksteady36]

Originally Posted by beeftotheheels

To reverse Michael Noonan's catch phrase "Greece is not Ireland". We had a property bubble, we inflated our expenditure based on the bubble tax take so that when it burst we had a huge deficit which we are working to address. But everyone got richer from the Celtic tiger, like it or not. Benefits went up because we were rich. Public sector wages went up because we were rich. The local shopkeeper made more money because we spent more because we were rich. We're now reversing this - as we need to given our current circumstances.

Yes we stood over our banks, and yes, this may have involved pressure from outsiders, but we are dealing with the fallout of a bubble bursting which has happened time and again in the global economy.

Greece is not.

Greece are dealing with the fallout of cooking their books for decades. There are no bankers or politicians who made a killing in the good times because there were, by Irish standards, no good times.

Ireland had a bunch of problems 25 years ago which we addressed which resulted in the celtic tiger. But we let it go to our heads and developed a real estate bubble which has burst.

Greece had a bunch of problems 25 years ago which they hid. So they ignored them and now the chickens have come home to roost.

Very different kettle of fish.

They may be different issues, may be the Greek Govt is totally corupt, this may have the knock on effect of its citizens evading tax..In fact that is the most likely reason for them to evade tax because they know the poltiicans are so corrupt..

But the common thread running through both our realities is that deregulation of lending, and free movement of capital led to both our governments over spending, as has been proven here..

These banks lent on a global scale, it has come out that the Federal Reserve through its discount window gave discounted loans to european banks like Dexia, why did they do that anyway...

How do you mean no bankers or politicians made a killing...There is a lot of wealthy ex politicians living in d4 etc and lots of rich bankers, there all just under the radar..

Also I don't think that the Celtic Tiger was real, if we look at the evidence now, we can see that Bertie ignored all his advisors in the dept of finance..

Everyone was doing well because most of the people had an income linked to the property bubble. A bubble is not the celtic tiger, we now know the celtic tiger was a mirage..a bubble that Bertie allowed to go on to stay in power...

Anyway, if Lenihan had listened to Merkel when she told him not to guarantee the banks because there would be a flight of capital from German banks, he sneaked off and made the worst mistake in the history of our short state...

I get what your saying though, but as a personal opinion I am against trying to say that the greeks are different story and then letting the people suffer their fate..

I personally believe if we are not to be hypocrites and expect help ourselves from our "european partners" then we should realsie that the greeks are being screwed just as bad as we are..

Because like you say its a different kettle of fish, thats why they are on the streets nearing a revolution..Because they were royally screwed on purpose, where we were screwed thru incompetence..

I would argue that Bertie knew deep down he was playing russian roulette..but went for gold..

Also how did you do that, very good didnt know you could take a post like that

Why did you put up a post that you disagreed with at the time?

Anyway may be the fact that they were massaging the numbers could be used to audit the debt and prove it is odious...?

Lastly, the bankers knew the size of our problems and lied, and I would believe the bankers knew the size of the problem in Greece too....

Anyway Beefof the heels I have read some of your posts and you make a lot of sense, but I am going to be devils advocate for the Greeks..We should recognise we are all in the same boat, as in the bankers are being bailed out while we suffer..

[Good loser]

Originally Posted by thebman

Peter Matthews position on VB tonight basically is what will most likely happen IMO.

He is rarely wrong and usually just waiting for the politicians in charge to catch up to him.

I thought Peter pretty evasive.

He will not answer ANY questions on the budget deficit (like McWilliams etc) except to state that fixing the bank debt will sort all.

He thinks there's a Santa Claus out there with €50bn/€70bn/€90bn in his arse pocket who's only waiting to be asked nicely to hand it over to Ireland.

He doesn't understand the dynamics of power.

Maybe Miriam's the one to get it for us!

[beeftotheheels]

Originally Posted by rocksteady36

They may be different issues, may be the Greek Govt is totally corupt, this may have the knock on effect of its citizens evading tax..In fact that is the most likely reason for them to evade tax because they know the poltiicans are so corrupt..

Chicken and egg argument leads to anarchy....

Originally Posted by rocksteady36

But the common thread running through both our realities is that deregulation of lending, and free movement of capital led to both our governments over spending, as has been proven here..

One has to distinguish between negligence and fraud. Civil societies distinguish between mistakes and lies. Hell, a four year old can distinguish between mistakes and lies.

Originally Posted by rocksteady36

These banks lent on a global scale, it has come out that the Federal Reserve through its discount window gave discounted loans to european banks like Dexia, why did they do that anyway...

We have a mismatch between national regulation and global financial institutions, and this is a big part of the problem. But it is not the entirety of the problem. Individuals as both voters and borrowers have to take some of the responsibility.

Originally Posted by rocksteady36

How do you mean no bankers or politicians made a killing...There is a lot of wealthy ex politicians living in d4 etc and lots of rich bankers, there all just under the radar..

Greek bankers and former politicians are living under the radar in D4??? I'd have assumed they either went somewhere warm and sunny like the Caribbean, or somewhere financially stable like Lichtenstein. We've managed to lure them here with our poor weather and poor credit rating? Well I'll be damned!

Originally Posted by rocksteady36

Also I don't think that the Celtic Tiger was real, if we look at the evidence now, we can see that Bertie ignored all his advisors in the dept of finance..

Everyone was doing well because most of the people had an income linked to the property bubble. A bubble is not the celtic tiger, we now know the celtic tiger was a mirage..a bubble that Bertie allowed to go on to stay in power...

The Celtic Tiger was the export led growth between the late eighties and the beginning of the naughties. It petered out so we threw fuel on the property flames. But it was good growth, we just failed to accept that it had met its natural end and that we didn't need to grow at that rate any more.

Originally Posted by rocksteady36

Anyway, if Lenihan had listened to Merkel when she told him not to guarantee the banks because there would be a flight of capital from German banks, he sneaked off and made the worst mistake in the history of our short state...

The bank guarantee was not the worst mistake in our history, nor is it the reason we are running a primary deficit. You need to go two Finance Ministers back to find the answer to those puzzles. It was a mistake, just not the worst mistake.

Originally Posted by rocksteady36

I get what your saying though, but as a personal opinion I am against trying to say that the greeks are different story and then letting the people suffer their fate..

I personally believe if we are not to be hypocrites and expect help ourselves from our "european partners" then we should realsie that the greeks are being screwed just as bad as we are..

Because like you say its a different kettle of fish, thats why they are on the streets nearing a revolution..Because they were royally screwed on purpose, where we were screwed thru incompetence..

I would argue that Bertie knew deep down he was playing russian roulette..but went for gold..

I don't understand what you are saying.

Originally Posted by rocksteady36

Also how did you do that, very good didnt know you could take a post like that

Why did you put up a post that you disagreed with at the time?

I didn't disagree with the post, I merely pointed out that Later10 had misrepresented the degrees of horribleness lurking in the credit rating agencies positions. Ecuador was, until a week previous to that post as bad as it could get yet Greece had just managed to deserve a worse credit rating.

[rocksteady36]

Originally Posted by beeftotheheels

beeftotheheels;73030877]Chicken and egg argument leads to anarchy....

Thats not a good argument lol...If the government looked after the people and the economy instead of themselves then there would be less tax evasion...Its not chicken and egg its cause and effect...

Originally Posted by beeftotheheels

One has to distinguish between negligence and fraud. Civil societies distinguish between mistakes and lies. Hell, a four year old can distinguish between mistakes and lies.

I agree, but you didnt understand what I was saying when I said the greeks were srewed on purpose but we were screwed thru incompompetence..But my point is still that just because it was political incompetence here does not mean we should 'burn the Greeks' the bankers are the cause, lets burn the banks..These politicians are just puppets in the hands of the puppeteer bankers..

Originally Posted by beeftotheheels

We have a mismatch between national regulation and global financial institutions, and this is a big part of the problem. But it is not the entirety of the problem. Individuals as both voters and borrowers have to take some of the responsibility.

I don't agree with that blanket responsibility for voters..They were lied to by Bertie, who they trust, and you seem to believe that its 'negligence' only that got us here. It was recklessness and in business it would warrant the serious punishment, but politicians are immune to the law..So they can act without worrying about consequences and can just deny all wrongdoing..So I think that negligence should be a criminal offence for politicians..So I don't agree with that theory that we are to blame..as Lenihan said 'we all partied' Fuk That..I don't accept that sharing of the governments lies, negligence and cronyism.. A four year old can not distinguish between a politicans lies, you can obviously see Bertie lied to us, even when they have proven he ignored his dept of finance for years and 4 year olds don't realise that negligence would be crime in other areas of life and result in jail time...

As for the voters, I remeber the last election Fianna Fail won, I was with family and relations in my grans..They were all so proud that they had voted for Fianna Fail, because it was their party, they believed in this Fianna Fail versus Fine Gael nonsense..I told them they would regret this elcetion, I was fianna fail but voted fine gael. I told them that not once did Fianna fail offer to take responsibilty for the crap going on, voters are like 4 year olds in many cases..If you can remeber Labour and Fine gael fought the elcetion and they fought it by saying that they would make their party members take responsibilty for wrong doing..But the sheep voted fianna fail, many did because its what they always did, its a family thing going back decades..So the politicians abused this trust and it has been proven..So the people could not see the lies from mistakes..

Originally Posted by beeftotheheels

Greek bankers and former politicians are living under the radar in D4??? I'd have assumed they either went somewhere warm and sunny like the Caribbean, or somewhere financially stable like Lichtenstein. We've managed to lure them here with our poor weather and poor credit rating? Well I'll be damned!

Your senetence read ...There are no bankers or politicians who made a killing in the good times because there were, by Irish standards, no good times. I just misinterpreted your senetence, no need to be smart...

Originally Posted by beeftotheheels

The Celtic Tiger was the export led growth between the late eighties and the beginning of the naughties. It petered out so we threw fuel on the property flames. But it was good growth, we just failed to accept that it had met its natural end and that we didn't need to grow at that rate any more.

Correct, but everyone up until the bubble burst imagined it continued through to 2010..So in that sense it was all bullsht..

Originally Posted by beeftotheheels

The bank guarantee was not the worst mistake in our history, nor is it the reason we are running a primary deficit. You need to go two Finance Ministers back to find the answer to those puzzles. It was a mistake, just not the worst mistake.

Ok, worst economic mistake...lol The worst mistake is asking a teacher or solicitor to run the dept of finance, clowns...Are you talking about mccreavy or cowen..Cowen is a solicitor by trade, and mccreavy was a chartered accountant, nearly as good as an economist for me..At least he thought he knew what he was doing, if anyone actually believes that cowen or lenihan had a fkn clue about finance and the economy they are in la la land..So to me, yes the biggest economic mistake was guaranteeing the banks..nothing else comes close to that for me..How many billions do we owe from that one decision..one single decision...pin pointed and definite mistake..

Originally Posted by beeftotheheels

I don't understand what you are saying.

Well it was late last night, I was tired, but my point is that if we burn the greek people for the governments gangsterism then why should anyone giv a damn about us, why are we different just because our inept politicians made a 'mistake' then we should be helped..I don't think that burning the greek people will bring us any luck..

And I am saying that people are very naive to think that Bertie was not corrupt here too..He told us that people should commit suicide instead of talking about us being in a bubble that could burst..WTF..Then left office so he wouldn't get done for taking bribes from business men...Whats the difference between Greek and Irish polciticians, to the German and french there is no difference..They told the Greeks and IRISH to cool the economy over and over, we told them to fk off..

So I am still sticking to my guns, that we the irish ppl are in the same boat as the greek ppl, there should be solidarity with them..

Originally Posted by beeftotheheels

I didn't disagree with the post, I merely pointed out that Later10 had misrepresented the degrees of horribleness lurking in the credit rating agencies positions. Ecuador was, until a week previous to that post as bad as it could get yet Greece had just managed to deserve a worse credit rating.

Equador has oil, so i think thats why they might just get away with auditing their debt and calling billions illegal debt and not paying it back..Greece ahs no oil, and neither do we..Greece is selling stakes in water, thats insane to me..

I am not going to reply to any response lol, too busy...

[beeftotheheels]

Deutsche Bank chief Josef Ackermann says the financial industry would offer European politicians a solution on Greece because a Greek default would be even more dramatic than the Lehman crisis. "I guarantee we will offer the politicians a solution, but this must prevent a meltdown," he told politicians and bankers in Berlin.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-13954989

[beeftotheheels]

I'm beginning to wonder where all this will end with Greece. I think with unconfirmed reports of rubber bullets being fired on the crowds and with widespread use of teargas we have now reached the point where the austerity measures stand no chance of being implemented regardless of the vote passed today.

The question then is whether default is triggered tomorrow with the specific austerity bills failing to pass, or whether it is triggered in three months time when Greece fail their next check-up, any plan to disburse money to Greece can now only hope to buy weeks and not the years that were needed.

So, Greece defaults next week or next month, it really doesn't matter. The default will be disorderly and it will be chaotic.

But Europe cannot be seen to renegotiate the Greek deal without renegotiating the Irish and Portuguese deals as well, at this stage moral hazard has to trump contagion. While all the chatter is that there is no plan B (or indeed omega) it is clear that the various regulators are working through the night trying to identify who holds Greek debt and more importantly who holds the credit default swaps.

So those funds readied to bail out Greece may yet be dispersed to quickly bail out the banks who are exposed to Greek debt and swaps. If European governments act quickly and decisively enough (bearing in mind they would be recapitalizing domestic national banks so each State could act unilaterally) then hopefully that could mitigate the risk of contagion.

However, where does that leave Greece? A broken bankrupt society, cut off from the financial markets, cut off from its traditional trading partners, printing money to pay the bills. The budget will have to be balanced at some stage, and reduced FDI will likely limit growth which leaves only the option of the existing austerity measures.

I have to say I remain confused by the mentality of the Greek opposition. They would rather lead a broken Greek State than try to stop the State breaking. What Greece needs right now is leadership. What Greece needs is unity. What Greece needs is for someone to explain to the Greek people that they are in the first circle of hell right now, and while that is clearly not a nice place to be, there are 9 more circles which are worse.

But I don't see this happening.

[Scofflaw]

Originally Posted by beeftotheheels

I'm beginning to wonder where all this will end with Greece. I think with unconfirmed reports of rubber bullets being fired on the crowds and with widespread use of teargas we have now reached the point where the austerity measures stand no chance of being implemented regardless of the vote passed today.

The question then is whether default is triggered tomorrow with the specific austerity bills failing to pass, or whether it is triggered in three months time when Greece fail their next check-up, any plan to disburse money to Greece can now only hope to buy weeks and not the years that were needed.

So, Greece defaults next week or next month, it really doesn't matter. The default will be disorderly and it will be chaotic.

But Europe cannot be seen to renegotiate the Greek deal without renegotiating the Irish and Portuguese deals as well, at this stage moral hazard has to trump contagion. While all the chatter is that there is no plan B (or indeed omega) it is clear that the various regulators are working through the night trying to identify who holds Greek debt and more importantly who holds the credit default swaps.

So those funds readied to bail out Greece may yet be dispersed to quickly bail out the banks who are exposed to Greek debt and swaps. If European governments act quickly and decisively enough (bearing in mind they would be recapitalizing domestic national banks so each State could act unilaterally) then hopefully that could mitigate the risk of contagion.

However, where does that leave Greece? A broken bankrupt society, cut off from the financial markets, cut off from its traditional trading partners, printing money to pay the bills. The budget will have to be balanced at some stage, and reduced FDI will likely limit growth which leaves only the option of the existing austerity measures.

I have to say I remain confused by the mentality of the Greek opposition. They would rather lead a broken Greek State than try to stop the State breaking. What Greece needs right now is leadership. What Greece needs is unity. What Greece needs is for someone to explain to the Greek people that they are in the first circle of hell right now, and while that is clearly not a nice place to be, there are 9 more circles which are worse.

But I don't see this happening.

Default is, once again, the lose-lose option. However, I'm beginning to wonder about the whole "rubber bullets + teargas = breakdown of society" thing. I'm not saying that nothing is happening, but I wonder if what's happening is quite as far outside the norms of Greece as it is outside the norms of the countries whose media are portraying it as an apocalyptic scenario. I can't get figures for the size of the protests, but a reference to the numbers of protesters "ballooning" to 30,000 makes me slightly suspicious that the regular number of protesters is not large. The UK FCO's advice for travellers to Greece refers to protests being a "standard feature" and "often quelled with tear gas":

Greece is a stable democracy, however, public protests are a standard feature of Greek political life. Take precautions for your personal safety and avoid public gatherings and demonstrations, which have the potential to turn violent and are often quelled with tear gas.

Thinking back on the reportage of our own period of protests, with eirigi trying to get into the Dáil, scuffling in Merrion Row and so on, I can't help but recall that the international media similarly painted an apocalyptic picture there as well ("BLOOD IN THE STREETS! Bank Bailout Protesters Storm Ireland's Parliament") - and speaking as someone who lives in the city centre, and who has a young child, I can safely say that the picture painted by the foreign media was overdone to the point of near-hysteria.

So, we wonders, we does. Media prefer the dramatic at the best of times, but there will also be a lot of people betting on a disorderly Greek default in the near-term.

cordially,
Scofflaw

[Peanut]

There's something to bear in mind that, while Greece has a long history of protest and scuffles especially in the city hotspots, the groups would have more likely been anarchists or various extremist groups. In this respect, the use of teargas etc. is nothing unusual at all.

The current protesters do seem to have been drawn more from the non-political element of society though, which may have more of a bearing on the outcome if there is a significant increase in tension.

[beeftotheheels]

Originally Posted by Scofflaw

Default is, once again, the lose-lose option. However, I'm beginning to wonder about the whole "rubber bullets + teargas = breakdown of society" thing. I'm not saying that nothing is happening, but I wonder if what's happening is quite as far outside the norms of Greece as it is outside the norms of the countries whose media are portraying it as an apocalyptic scenario. I can't get figures for the size of the protests, but a reference to the numbers of protesters "ballooning" to 30,000 makes me slightly suspicious that the regular number of protesters is not large. The UK FCO's advice for travellers to Greece refers to protests being a "standard feature" and "often quelled with tear gas":



Thinking back on the reportage of our own period of protests, with eirigi trying to get into the Dáil, scuffling in Merrion Row and so on, I can't help but recall that the international media similarly painted an apocalyptic picture there as well ("BLOOD IN THE STREETS! Bank Bailout Protesters Storm Ireland's Parliament") - and speaking as someone who lives in the city centre, and who has a young child, I can safely say that the picture painted by the foreign media was overdone to the point of near-hysteria.

So, we wonders, we does. Media prefer the dramatic at the best of times, but there will also be a lot of people betting on a disorderly Greek default in the near-term.

cordially,
Scofflaw

I take your point, much like the mayday protests in the City of London where we just swapped our suits for casual clothes and headed into work cheered by the notion that the canteen would be free for the day (because we couldn't leave the office), and they would most likely serve chips (fish and chips normally only being served on a Friday). The place almost had a carnival atmosphere for the day, I remember being upset as a trainee (my first mayday protest) that security wouldn't let me leave the office block I was in to go to another office block across the street, not for a meeting, but because one of my mates had emailed me to tell me how hilarious some of the senior people in his office looked in civvies.

However, and this is the huge however, part of the plan involves adhering to rules which the Greeks dislike at the best of time. It seems like the social contract on which the Greek State currently rests, is paid for by the very over spending which has caused these problems. Whereas the social contract on which UK society rests was historically paid for, to a large extent, by the City which was the subject of the protests rather than the protesting part of society.

Seen in that light the protests are more worrying, the strikes are more worrying, the foundations on which the modern Greek State is built appear to be sand.

So yes, 30k is not a huge number of people, I was one of the hundred of thousands if not a million people who took to the streets of London to protest against the invasion of Iraq. But the sheer number of protesters on the streets didn't achieve anything, what we were protesting against was one decision of the government, not the very fabric of the society in which we lived.

I guess in summary I'm not concerned by the fact that there are protests, or indeed the size of those protests, I'm concerned by the fact that the protesters seem to represent all walks of life in Greece including the public sector and semi states, without whose buy in the austerity measures are doomed to fail.

[thebman]

Originally Posted by Good loser

I thought Peter pretty evasive.

He will not answer ANY questions on the budget deficit (like McWilliams etc) except to state that fixing the bank debt will sort all.

He thinks there's a Santa Claus out there with €50bn/€70bn/€90bn in his arse pocket who's only waiting to be asked nicely to hand it over to Ireland.

He doesn't understand the dynamics of power.

Maybe Miriam's the one to get it for us!

He is a banker not the minister of finance though so one would expect him to have answers on banking issues which is the platform he ran on.

And everybody knows the answer to our deficit issues. Cut our spending and increase taxes in whatever format people are most willing to accept.

[Scofflaw]

I agree with those points - the riots, while more dramatic for the media, are probably of less concern than the strikes.

Not that they don't also strike:

November 10, 2005

Aircraft were grounded and many Greek public services shut down as civil servants went on a 24 hour strike on Thursday to demand higher pay and protest against the government's spending cuts.

Greece's two largest carriers, Olympic Airlines and Aegean Airlines, grounded all their flights as air traffic controllers joined the strike. A spokeswoman at Athens Airport said there was no air traffic. Greek TV showed a quiet airport, empty of the usual crowds of passengers.

"There are no planes taking off or landing at all Greek airports. We are only servicing overflights," Manolis Antoniadis, head of the union of air traffic controllers said.

Teachers stayed away from work and local government services came to a halt. Hospitals were operating only with skeleton staff but public transport was running as usual.

Close to 1,000 protesters marched through central Athens to the Finance Ministry, waving banners reading "No To Austerity" and "Dump the budget".

Unionists said there was an overwhelming response from civil servants to the industrial action although government officials were not available to comment.

The strike piles pressure on the conservative government, which is tightening spending in an effort to bring the budget deficit to below the European Union's 3.0 percent deficit cap in 2006, from 6.6 percent in 2004.

"We understand that there are demands which we respect but our policy cannot divert from the recovery program that we have drafted," government spokesman Theodore Rousopoulos said.

Talks on 2006/2007 wage deals are expected to start early next year for both the public and private sectors. The government has said it wants to cap public sector wage rises at 3.2 percent, the forecast for Greek consumer inflation in 2006.

Mind you, I don't know whether that bothers me more, or less.

cordially,
Scofflaw

[beeftotheheels]

Originally Posted by Scofflaw

Mind you, I don't know whether that bothers me more, or less.

cordially,
Scofflaw

Oh that has just cheered me right up that has. They were striking against austerity while cooking the books!????

The hell with protesting against capitalism, I'm thinking about starting a protest movement against the Greek construct that is democracy!

[Good loser]

Originally Posted by thebman

He is a banker not the minister of finance though so one would expect him to have answers on banking issues which is the platform he ran on.

And everybody knows the answer to our deficit issues. Cut our spending and increase taxes in whatever format people are most willing to accept.

He has only one 'answer' to the banking issue and that is simplistic and naive.

As a FG panelist and a banker he should have settled opinions on the budget deficit. He engages in populism by saying the bank debt is the ONLY item that matters.

The answer to the deficit issue is as simple as you state - the hard part is the where and the when i.e. what PM evades.

[femur61]

Originally Posted by Scofflaw

So, we wonders, we does. Media prefer the dramatic at the best of times, but there will also be a lot of people betting on a disorderly Greek default in the near-term.

cordially,
Scofflaw

Even when the Queen was here Sky news reported as if the whole of Dublin were protested, not a bunch of unemployed, one of the pictures they had on their web site was of a burning shopping trolley and they kept that on for over a week. But RTE is reporting similar to SKY news and CNN what is happening so there might be an element of exageration but I think the main issues are being reported correctly.

[Cannibal Ox]

Originally Posted by Scofflaw

However, I'm beginning to wonder about the whole "rubber bullets + teargas = breakdown of society" thing.

I think you could look at it as the norm and let it continue on, or you could see it as a culmination of years of discontent and growing tension amongst different groups, who've now had common cause created for them through austerity.

Either way, they already have a reputation for not really doing what the state wants them to do. Implementing this austerity program after this is going to be even more difficult then it would've been with a relatively benign population.