[joebucks]

Originally Posted by joebucks

Mixed results in the Super xv last week. Stormers let me down big time, throwing away a 11 pt half time lead.

The early game on Friday is the Blues vs the Stormers. The Blues will be looking to bounce back from defeat to the Reds and have Jerome Kaino back in the side which is a massive boost for them. The Stormers however have lost 3 key players in flyhalf Peter Grant and Springbok partnership of De Villiers and Fourie, who are all out injured.

Early odds on pp are 2/5 for the Blues to win and a handicap of 6 pts.

Gonna back the Blues -6 at 10/11- €55 while that price is still available.

Also on Friday I fancy Harlequins to beat Stade Francais in the Challenge cup final. SF have been poor this season and were lucky to make the final. Single on Quins to win at 10/11 and also small bet on Quins -6 at 15/8 looks nice.

A shocking second half by the Blues last week allowed the Stormers to sneak an away win coming from 14 pts down.
Harlequins somehow managed to dig out a win in The Challenge Cup final so these things even out I guess..

Unreal turnaround by Leinster and hopefully some of you guys got a taste of that.

The Magners League final this weekend and the bookies are giving Munster a 2 pt head start..I am going to avoid this one as Leinster will have their tails up after Saturdays win and will want to finish off season in style. However Munster's record at Thomond speaks for itself and they will not want to finish the season empty handed so will be giving it everything and there is the added incentive of pissing on Leinster's parade. Should be a cracking game anyway.

Bets that I do fancy this weekend are
Montpellier +5 at 10/11- With Galthie in charge Montpellier will give anyone a game and won't get whipped by anyone, Racing havent been hugely impressive and upset could be on cards here
Toulouse at 4/7- game is on in Marseille and will be close but w/o Rougerie Clermont may struggle
Hurricanes -8 at 4/9- Force have left out some key players for this so see an easy victory for the 'canes
Stormers -8 at 10/11- Brumbies are very poor this year and Stormers will be on a high after last weeks win. Elsom also missing so Stormers pack will annihilate Brumbies upfront.

Accum of these results pays 7.5/1- €20 on that returns €165

Also €50 on:
Over 50 points in the Bulls/Cheetahs and Reds/Crusaders games

Reds Crusaders game on Sunday morning will be another cracker..Like the Munster/Leinster game very little in it but both teams will go for it. Fancy the Crusaders to edge it.

[fkiely]

Great post mate, as always.

Personally I quite like the look of Hurricanes too but the 14 points handicap is very large. The Force have so many key players missing though. Will have to think it over before tomorrow.

Stormers are another of yours I really like the look of this weekend. 8 points seems very fair.

Aside from that I'm torn in the Highlanders game but might take the Lions +14. With Butch James gone back to center, they should have more balance.

In the big one on Sunday, I'm leaning towards the Reds +2. Have been backing them all season and shouldn't stop now. Although I might be tempted by the over/under market instead and just enjoy what could be the best game of the season.

[joebucks]

Originally Posted by fkiely

Great post mate, as always.

Personally I quite like the look of Hurricanes too but the 14 points handicap is very large. The Force have so many key players missing though. Will have to think it over before tomorrow.

Stormers are another of yours I really like the look of this weekend. 8 points seems very fair.

Aside from that I'm torn in the Highlanders game but might take the Lions +14. With Butch James gone back to center, they should have more balance.

In the big one on Sunday, I'm leaning towards the Reds +2. Have been backing them all season and shouldn't stop now. Although I might be tempted by the over/under market instead and just enjoy what could be the best game of the season.

Nice one man.

The Hurricanes have All Blacks Conrad Smith and Corey Jane back in their team, so combine that with Ma Nonu and Hosea Gear in the backline you have a seriously potent side. I don't like backing anything over -10 points on the handicap as once a side has the bonus point wrapped up they tend to take their foot of the gas whereas the losing side will battle till the end to try and get a losing bonus and possibly 4 try bonus too.
The Hurricanes to score over 3.5 tries at 5/4 on pp.com looks a great bet here. Gonna stick €60 on that.

Hopefully that will kick the weekend off nicely. Lions +14 looks a decent bet. Jantjes at outhalf looks a quality player for them so could cause Highlanders some problems, they are accomodating him in the side by moving James to 12.

Depending on how these go I may have a punt on Leinster too, I see you've included them in an accum..From 1-15 they look the far superior side. O'Connell and Howlett are the only two that would be guaranteed a start for Leinster.If he starts Barnes could be exposed badly against Drico in the centre..will wait to see the lineups anyway

[Derek!]

Does anyone watch darts?
If so any opinions on the upcomin UK Open?

[Derek!]

I decided to go for:
Gary Anderson
Adrian Lewis

Small bets hopefully ill get a run for my money though

[joebucks]

A decent week last week so hopefully see some more winners this week. 3 matches in the Super XV tomorrow. Gonna avoid the Highlanders/ Force game. The other 2 games look like there is some value on offer

Super XV
Rebels vs Stormers. Over 5.5 tries at 6/5. HT handicap Stmers -5 at 4/6. Large stake on both.

Rebels had a bye week last week and are normally slow starters so I expect the Stormers to be ahead by at least a couple of penalties at half-time. Rebels pack will be dominated by the Stormers so I reckon the Stormers will bag the bonus point win but the Rebels are likely to throw ball around to try keep it away from the Stormers pack so will probably run in at least two scores themselves while also leaving themselves open to intercepts from the likes of De Villiers and Habana who are worth looking at to score anytime.

Bulls vs Waratahs- Waratahs +9 at 10/11. Small stake.
I expect this to be a close game as both are fighting for a place in the playoffs. +9 is a generous handicap for the Tahs in what should be a very tight game


Top 14
Toulouse vs Montpellier- Montpellier +9 at 10/11.

[joebucks]

Bet in-play. Highlander to score more than 20.5 points at 5/6- €60 on

14-3 to highlanders with 20 mins to go..Highlanders need bonus pt win to stay in hunt for playoffs so should manage at least 1 more try

[joebucks]

Originally Posted by joebucks

Bet in-play. Highlander to score more than 20.5 points at 5/6- €60 on

14-3 to highlanders with 20 mins to go..Highlanders need bonus pt win to stay in hunt for playoffs so should manage at least 1 more try

yikes! hope none of you followed that.. Force run in 18 unanswered points in last 20 final score 18-21..knew I shouldve avoided it..

[joebucks]

Originally Posted by joebucks

Super XV
Rebels vs Stormers. Over 5.5 tries at 6/5. HT handicap Stmers -5 at 4/6. Large stake on both.

Rebels had a bye week last week and are normally slow starters so I expect the Stormers to be ahead by at least a couple of penalties at half-time. Rebels pack will be dominated by the Stormers so I reckon the Stormers will bag the bonus point win but the Rebels are likely to throw ball around to try keep it away from the Stormers pack so will probably run in at least two scores themselves while also leaving themselves open to intercepts from the likes of De Villiers and Habana who are worth looking at to score anytime.

.

40-3 to Stormers. Only 5 tries but both Habana and De Villiers got their names on the scoresheet. Stormer easily covered HT and FT handicaps.

[joebucks]

Originally Posted by joebucks

Bulls vs Waratahs- Waratahs +9 at 10/11. Small stake.
I expect this to be a close game as both are fighting for a place in the playoffs. +9 is a generous handicap for the Tahs in what should be a very tight game

Tahs hold out to get a losing bonus point despite being reduced to 14 men so happy with that.

Should be some exciting games tomorrow and I expect there to be quite a few tries.

At 0630 Hurricanes face the Lions the handicap offered is 13 points. I am gonna steer clear of this as Lions are capable of running in a few scores so may be close but expect the Hurricanes backline containing 6 All Blacks to get the try bonus point. Team A over 3.5 tries at 5/6

Blues- Chiefs: Always a keenly contested game between these two. Blues always start well at home and Chiefs have plenty of firepower too so I expect it to be an open game despite the last time these tow played in horrendous conidtions finishing under 30pt. Gonna go for over 20.5 first half points here at 5/6

Reds vs Brumbies- Reds are the best team in the tournament right now and are unstoppable at home. I fully expect them to secure bonus point win here. Team A Over 3.5 tries at 8/11.

Treble of these 3 comes in just under 5/1. SO gonna have small punt on that as well as 3 large singles.

Also double on Gear and Ioane score a try in 80 mins at 3/1.

[joebucks]

Originally Posted by joebucks

Top 14
Toulouse vs Montpellier- Montpellier +9 at 10/11.

Montpellier unlucky not to win it. Lost by 5 in the end.

Originally Posted by joebucks

At 0630 Hurricanes face the Lions the handicap offered is 13 points. I am gonna steer clear of this as Lions are capable of running in a few scores so may be close but expect the Hurricanes backline containing 6 All Blacks to get the try bonus point. Team A over 3.5 tries at 5/6

Blues- Chiefs: Always a keenly contested game between these two. Blues always start well at home and Chiefs have plenty of firepower too so I expect it to be an open game despite the last time these tow played in horrendous conidtions finishing under 30pt. Gonna go for over 20.5 first half points here at 5/6

Reds vs Brumbies- Reds are the best team in the tournament right now and are unstoppable at home. I fully expect them to secure bonus point win here. Team A Over 3.5 tries at 8/11.

Treble of these 3 comes in just under 5/1. SO gonna have small punt on that as well as 3 large singles.

Also double on Gear and Ioane score a try in 80 mins at 3/1.

Hurricanes were they only ones to step up, Gear picked up another two tries. Poor Ioane was knocked clean out though so went off early. The other results let me down big time and had a decent wedge on overs in the Cheetahs game too so turned out to be a sobering week for betting on super xv which has been very profitable for me in the recent weeks.

After last weeks results and given the fixtures at hand this week it is very difficult to see how things will go this weekend.

A couple of bets that look decent tomorrow are the Hurricanes to score over 1.5 tries at 5/6 and Brumbies under 33.5 points v Rebels. at 5/6. 10€ dbl pays €33.61

Brumbies have only scored over 30 points once this season and are unlikely to do so again in an Aussie derby game against the poor Rebels. If Rebels loose this they are guaranteed the wooden spoon, but if they win it like they won the previous fixture between the 2 sides then it will be Brumbies looking at wooden spoon.

'Canes have been in decent tryscoring form lately and Nonu may be out to prove point after being told his services are not req'd next season. Both teams are playing to avoid the wooden spoon so both will likely go for it and play some decent rugby.

[fkiely]

Quite like the Chiefs on the 6 handicap myself to be honest, the Hurricanes are in an almighty mess. Will be taking the Chiefs no problem.

Quite like the Brumbies minus 12 as well, they'll be buzzing after last week and the Rebels morale must be at an all time low.

Haven't quite made my mind up for the rest of the weekends games yet, will have to do a bit more research today.

Good luck though mate.

[Will23]

Brumbies made hard work of the handicap in the end... but covered it!

there is surely value in the u20's world championship tonight? baby blacks and baby boks usually put up enormous scores in this comp.

[joebucks]

Some serious mismatches in the under 20 world cup all right, will have a look to see if there is any value. Also have to check out the Churchill Cup as there was a couple of bets I fancied earlier in the week but didnt back them and you know how they turned out

England Tonga should be a very high scoring game on Sunday..

Fair play to the Brumbies for digging out the late score to cover the handicap and kept it under 33.5 so everybody happy!

Tomorrows games are tough to call. You would have to fancy the Reds to bounce back after last week but have a very poor away record to the Force and the Force have had some very good performances themselves lately too. Best avoided.

Good luck anyway lads.

[fkiely]

Originally Posted by joebucks

England Tonga should be a very high scoring game on Sunday..

Tonga +29 looks good value here. +20 at 2/1 could tempt me also.