[NewHillel]

Originally Posted by Sully

For a man holding back the party, there doing very well in polls.. Record levels. Many folk voted FG in the locals and european elections, under Kenny, so I think most of the crap on leaders (all bar FF) is down to media.

FG have done consistently well with him being in media and out of media. So I discount that. On the flip side, Noonan was despised by the media also during his time.

So, in my view, the media don't portray it as it is here. Very influencial.

I don't agree, IMO FG would be doing much better under Richard Bruton. Enda just hasn't got the charisma to get the public behind him. I don't think its a coincidence that the rating goes up when Enda keeps a low profile. (M Noonan is excellent at the moment, though. I'm looking forward to him being a government minister, again.)

Originally Posted by Oasis_Dublin

These polls are a waste of time. People say they will vote Fine Gael or Sinn Féin but we all know these mindless drones will vote FF, uimhir a haon. Irish people get the government which they deserve.

Mindless drones, sheep, what next?
The reality is straightforward - Cognitive Dissonance. People have invested so much time and energy supporting FF that they can't allow themselves believe that they have been duped. Its easy to recognize CD in others, not so easy to recognize, or deal with, in ourselves. So, not drones, not Sheep, just human like us all.

[Oasis_Dublin]

Bah. It's a secret ballot!

[North_West_Art]

Originally Posted by Sully

Look at SF.. Media giving them no time, yet they hammered everyone in Donegal and have reached new heights in polls.

Bizzare.

because the media are funded by the government, and will do their utmost to put negative spin on SF, if even mention them at all, particularly after the by-election result in DSW where they ran away with the vote.. all down to Pearse Doherty, who forced the by-election, then hammered the opposition. They gained the young vote, because most young people are online every day, a lot of support gained through social networking sites.
Ireland's electorate is young. State run media (rte) is watched by the older generations.. most young people have turned away from this

[Pappa Dolla]

Originally Posted by Amhran Nua

The polls are a waste of time, because people vote for TDs, not for parties. Whoever has filled in the most potholes that will get the most seats. Has Labour even bothered to come out with any policies yet?

I'm kind of surprised about how lazy you can be. I hope this is the last time labours policies get pointed out to you.

http://www.labour.ie/policy/

[Pappa Dolla]

Originally Posted by North_West_Art

because the media are funded by the government, and will do their utmost to put negative spin on SF, if even mention them at all, particularly after the by-election result in DSW where they ran away with the vote.. all down to Pearse Doherty, who forced the by-election, then hammered the opposition. They gained the young vote, because most young people are online every day, a lot of support gained through social networking sites.
Ireland's electorate is young. State run media (rte) is watched by the older generations.. most young people have turned away from this

Unfortunately most young people have turned away from the polls as well though

[Fo Real]

No major surprises there for me tbh. Fine Gael have some very impressive representives, in particular James Reilly, Leo Varadkar and Michael Noonan. Anytime they are on a political panel on a TV/radio talkshow, they wipe the floor with the other speakers. Always informed and articulate. I know who'll I'll be voting for in the upcoming election.

The drop in support for Labour can probably be attributed to the revelations of Gilmore's "colourful" past coming to the fore and becoming more widely known. And by colourful, I mean a very strong red. The man was associated with the Sinn Féin Workers Party and supported communist governments across the globe including North Korea. He also opposed the Solidarity movement that strove to bring democracy to Poland.

Sinn Féin's rise in support probably comes from the hicks that previoulsy supported FF. From one Republican party to another. SF have (alledgedly) left the gun behind so people don't feel shame voting for them now and their younger candidates have no conection to the party's past terrorist activites.

Just my 2 cents on the poll.

[hotmail.com]

My analysis:

FF - This poll confirms that FF's vote is firmly below 20%, a psychological level that may influence Cowen's continued leadership of the party over the coming weeks. If this poll figure is reflected in the election, FF will struggle to get 35 seats, a complete disaster for the party.

FG - Despite a rise of 6 points, 30% is still a poor result for FG given that FF's vote has competely collapsed. Essentially FG is only up by 3 points on the 2007 election on the basis of this poll. The prospect of existing FG TDs losing seats in tight areas is actually a possibility with 30%.

Lab - This poll reflects the fragility of the Labour vote. They are a semi protest party and it seems that many of the protest voters have moved to SF.

Greens - They are within the margin of error, enough said.

SF - Their vote is fragile like Lab, if they keep protesting they will do well and could pick up to 10 seats next time round. SF is popular in areas where for whatever reason, many of the electrot don't traditionally vote. They are also transfer unfriendly and the presence of Gerry Adams will only perpetuate that unfriendliness in my view.

Ind - The next Dail will have a lot of independents (and I include Joe Higgins, Richard Boyd Barret and Claire Daly in that lump).

[Sully]

Originally Posted by NewHillel

I don't agree, IMO FG would be doing much better under Richard Bruton. Enda just hasn't got the charisma to get the public behind him. I don't think its a coincidence that the rating goes up when Enda keeps a low profile. (M Noonan is excellent at the moment, though. I'm looking forward to him being a government minister, again.)

Christ almighty on a stick - no chance. Fine Gael is much more then one man. Put someone else instead of Enda, and people will moan. Bruton doesn't have leadership qualities - people just like him because he knows his finances. Noonan comes on the scene, and people think he should be the future leader. FGs ratings have been high regardless of Kenny being in public or not. Do you think if he goes quiet people say "Enda who? I'm voting FG, no idea what your on about - Kenny? Leader? Who?"

Originally Posted by North_West_Art

They gained the young vote, because most young people are online every day, a lot of support gained through social networking sites.

If anything, its Fine Gael that attracts the youth vote - YFG is the largest youth political wing. SFs youth presence is effectively non-existent. Its the larger parties using social networking sites, most young people don't give a toss about SF.

It was also a heavy YFG presence in Donegal throughout.

Unless, you have some stats on the bye-election vote indicating youth voting?

[Oasis_Dublin]

Is YFG really the largest of the ogras?

[NewHillel]

Originally Posted by Sully

Noonan comes on the scene, and people think he should be the future leader.

He had his chance and was deemed wanting. IMO FG should have stuck with him, far better than Enda.

Originally Posted by Sully

If anything, its Fine Gael that attracts the youth vote - YFG is the largest youth political wing. SFs youth presence is effectively non-existent. Its the larger parties using social networking sites, most young people don't give a toss about SF.

Any evidence for that? IMO YFG is not a patch on YFF - YFF get them young, in their mid-teens and groom them for servitude. By all accounts it works - lots of FF Groupies still out there on College Campuses. (I'd love to be proved wrong on this, BTW.)

P.S. I haven't seen any supposed deities on a stick, but it'll take some Deity to save us all now. (We're doomed I tell you, ah doomed. )

[steelcityblues]

Originally Posted by Fo Real

No major surprises there for me tbh. Fine Gael have some very impressive representives, in particular James Reilly, Leo Varadkar and Michael Noonan. Anytime they are on a political panel on a TV/radio talkshow, they wipe the floor with the other speakers. Always informed and articulate. I know who'll I'll be voting for in the upcoming election.

The drop in support for Labour can probably be attributed to the revelations of Gilmore's "colourful" past coming to the fore and becoming more widely known. And by colourful, I mean a very strong red. The man was associated with the Sinn Féin Workers Party and supported communist governments across the globe including North Korea. He also opposed the Solidarity movement that strove to bring democracy to Poland.

Sinn Féin's rise in support probably comes from the hicks that previoulsy supported FF. From one Republican party to another. SF have (alledgedly) left the gun behind so people don't feel shame voting for them now and their younger candidates have no conection to the party's past terrorist activites.

Just my 2 cents on the poll.

Or maybe just a lot of people who respect the fact that their current TDs actually know the meaning of the word republicanism - which we've seen by their non complaince to the EU masters, measures to properly punish the rogue bankers/developers, and by pushing for by-elections to be actually held.

Also, it won't be just former FFers, but many who would have been kind to Labour in the past, but are now copping on that Gilmore really stands for nothing, who will seriously consider SF now. They are the real losers of recent polls, and the stingy comments from Labour people to SF people on several forums shows they are in a crisis now.

As long as the days of FF being a major party are actually over, then I think you and I can at least agree that is progress.

[Amhran Nua]

Originally Posted by Papa Smut

I'm kind of surprised about how lazy you can be. I hope this is the last time labours policies get pointed out to you.

http://www.labour.ie/policy/

Great, did they put them out last week? Good to see they have finally come out with some sort of policies rather than just relying on Gilmore. Well, good in that at least we know what labour means to do:

• €500m toward a jobs fund - thats not going to turn much around
• A three year wage freeze - stagflation here we come
• Remove minimum wage reduction - good, but how does that work with a wage freeze
• Professional fees reform - the IMF beat you to it lads
• Upward only rent reviews - banned in February
• Establishing a national bank with the pension fund - already gutted to bail out the banks (ironic!)
• Citizens bonds - already done, national solidarity bond
• Exports to developing countries, STI - the middle class in developing countries is below a minimum wage earner here in terms of spending power, if SFI can suck up billions without producing a marketable product why are they talking about protecting our IP

...and on and on and on, you give up after a while. I couldn't find any reference to cuts except €4.5 billion, is that the extent of it? Tax rises:

• Increase carbon tax to €25 per tonne (net of fuel poverty measures) 130
• Reduce Pension Reliefs 400
• Third rate of tax at 48% 255
• Investment Property Relief 150
• Property schemes 360
• Minor Reliefs 219
• Progressive Structure for Capital Gains Tax 130
• New rate structure and thresholds for CAT 110
• 5% increase in rate of DIRT to 30% 125
• Reduction in personal credit by €250 335
• Increase tax on seconds homes from 200 to 500 94
• Excise package and anti-smuggling initiative 180
• Tax Exiles 100
• Abolish airport travel tax -110

Total Tax Measures 2478

Lovely, so more than half what they want to cut in tax increases. Not that it will make any difference, they could have released policies indicating they wanted to focus primarily on Ireland's cabbage industry and they would still get the votes based on the number of potholes filled.

Lazy indeed.

[Sully]

Originally Posted by Oasis_Dublin

Is YFG really the largest of the ogras?

Originally Posted by NewHillel

Any evidence for that? IMO YFG is not a patch on YFF - YFF get them young, in their mid-teens and groom them for servitude. By all accounts it works - lots of FF Groupies still out there on College Campuses. (I'd love to be proved wrong on this, BTW.)

Ah no, I think I read that part wrong on double checking - its one of the largest, but Ogra FF is the largest according to Wikipedia. Whether that changed in recent years - I have no idea, because speaking from various colleges societies its mostly FG youth groups with a base or large membership exceeding Fianna Fail in recent times.

I assume membership figures cant be proved either way, so Ogra Greens could be kicking everyones ass?!

[Fo Real]

Originally Posted by steelcityblues

Or maybe just a lot of people who respect the fact that their current TDs actually know the meaning of the word republicanism - which we've seen by their non complaince to the EU masters, measures to properly punish the rogue bankers/developers, and by pushing for by-elections to be actually held.

I'll agree that Sinn Féin putting forward a team of young, fresh candidates is a smart move. They first tasted success using this tactic with Mary Lou McDonald and haven't looked back since. They need to sever all ties with their terrorist past (that includes getting rid of Gerry as party leader) and then they may become tolerable as a mainstream party by people such as myself, even if I don't agree with their extremist euro-sceptic views.

Also, it won't be just former FFers, but many who would have been kind to Labour in the past, but are now copping on that Gilmore really stands for nothing, who will seriously consider SF now. They are the real losers of recent polls, and the stingy comments from Labour people to SF people on several forums shows they are in a crisis now.

I disagree that Gilmore stands for nothing. He is a closet Communist and would get moist at the thought of Castro paying a state visit to the Soviet Republic of Ireland. I suggest you do some research on his past views on the USSR and other Communist states.

I agree that there is a lot of voters swinging between Labour and SF. This makes sense as they are both Lefty parties and a government composed of the two is a real possibility after the next general election. Although personally I'd see it as a nightmare scenario where trade unions carry their members onto the gravy train while the rest of us are left with this massive national debt burden.

As long as the days of FF being a major party are actually over, then I think you and I can at least agree that is progress.

True. But I think FF will return witin the next decade. There will always be people who can be bought by a gombeen.

[thebman]

Originally Posted by Fo Real

True. But I think FF will return witin the next decade. There will always be people who can be bought by a gombeen.

This is exactly why political system reform should be the top of everyone who cares about our countries agenda.

Anything else is selling republic down the train to try to your local potholes filled/planning permission and is essentially corruption in my book as it means you are selling out to your local interest at the expense of the entire nation.