[mookie2007]

Ya given up on it Argosy or just taking a break.

Really good idea. Have been following your rules on a few random races & hit rate is good.

When it goes wrong though its very painful.

[argosy2006]

Originally Posted by mookie2007

Ya given up on it Argosy or just taking a break.

Really good idea. Have been following your rules on a few random races & hit rate is good.

When it goes wrong though its very painful.

i'm trying to alter it, maybe apply it to a couple of races a days, ie invest 6 pts a day,
but i'm trying to gather info on best races to apply it to.
races where favourite is not under 4-1 is looking like a rule change i,m thinking if a horse goes off at 4-1 he cant be that much of a favourite and next 3 in market will have a better chance to beat it rather than trying to beat a even money favourite.

[argosy2006]

i looked at 4 races today,,backed 3 horses in all these races
1.15
2.45
2.35
3.05

had winners with
1.15, no winner - 3
2.45.algle d'or 13-2
2.35 wallis 9-2
3.05.arteus 8-1

[argosy2006]

I'll use these races only today,
12.55 ,backing 3 up from favourite

[argosy2006]

also these,regardless of distance, backing next three in market after favourite, just before the off

2.00 newbury
3.40 newbury
2.10 kempton
3.15 kempton
5.20 kempton

[mookie2007]

So are you using that 4/1 rule change for the favourite or narrowed it down to certain tracks or type of races

[argosy2006]

Originally Posted by mookie2007

So are you using that 4/1 rule change for the favourite or narrowed it down to certain tracks or type of races

i,m not sure if any system will ever make money,, but what i,m finding is its best not to back every race during day that obeyed my rules in my first post on this thread,to many pts layed out,so im trying to find a way to lay out very few pts for maximun return
yea rule change , i,m looking for races that have a favourite that is 7-2 ,4-1 up wards and pick out these few races at around 12 pm,
there will be very few races like this, and my thinking is it cant be much of a favourite at a 4-1 price so it can be beat,and usaully these races have 4 or 5 decent horses in market behind it and then huge prices make up rest of field,

those few races i picked out today won 16pts from laying out only 18 pts. that 90% return on my staked pts

as for certain track or racing i,m not sure i'll gather info on it over time,

also looking at maybe skipping first two in market,,then back three up, ,,,

[argosy2006]

I'll use these races only today,
12.55 ,backing 3 up from favourite

Originally Posted by argosy2006

also these,regardless of distance, backing next three in market after favourite, just before the off

2.00 newbury
3.40 newbury
2.10 kempton
3.15 kempton
5.20 kempton

i use betfair. as stated in first post. easier to find next three in market,

12.55 race minus 3.00
2.00 race plus 2.20
2.10 race plus 6.60
3.15 race plus 8.67
3.40 race plus 4.59
5.20 race minus 3.00

staked 18pts
won 22.06
lost 6pts
profit 16.06 pts
return on investment 90%

[mookie2007]

Got ya

It is hard to find races with a 7/2 & above favourite.

For example I think the 3:15 favourite in kempton was 5/2 when i checked.

Btw the 5:20 in kempton. I did this & won with Zebrano @ 8/1. You sure your right with your calculations on this. Or maybe i was lucky & the odds changed between you picking your 3 and me picking my three before the off.

I think it has a good hit rate. After that its really all about the odds. But as you say picking races where the favorite id 7/2 up pushes the odds up on your 2nd 3rd & 4th horse which in turn increases your winnings.

Cheers anyway ill be following your lead with great interest as i have to date

[argosy2006]

Originally Posted by mookie2007

Got ya

It is hard to find races with a 7/2 & above favourite.

For example I think the 3:15 favourite in kempton was 5/2 when i checked.

Btw the 5:20 in kempton. I did this & won with Zebrano @ 8/1. You sure your right with your calculations on this. Or maybe i was lucky & the odds changed between you picking your 3 and me picking my three before the off.

I think it has a good hit rate. After that its really all about the odds. But as you say picking races where the favorite id 7/2 up pushes the odds up on your 2nd 3rd & 4th horse which in turn increases your winnings.

Cheers anyway ill be following your lead with great interest as i have to date

odds always change, i use betfair to pick my three and i use betfair to add my totals, in that 5.20 race as you mentioned it was a winner at sp ie in bookmakers, but on betfair it just missed out on been in the 3,,as it went off at 12.00 on betfair,,thats why i was thinking that on betfair i should elminated first two in market,as prices on betfair are so dam close at times, ie a 5.50 and a 5.60, it doesnt really matter,not an exact science,thing with betfair also is that you can win back those two points u lost,,as the 8-1 zebrano was 12.00 on betfair, so you won 6pts on zebrano,but on betfair you would have won 8 pts the actual sp ,
so maybe think to do is use sp prices to pick the three and back em on betfair even if there not the 3 on betfair,,
its all crazy,
hope your not backing large amounts based on this system ,hate to se you losing money,still trying to perfect it.if its possible, people who know way more about betting and racing tell me all systems fail
but hope you win loads

4.20 kempton
5.20 kempton
only two races today i'd be happy with trying out,

[argosy2006]

I'm going with these,
One down three up, just before the off BF,

4.20 kempton
5.20 kempton

5.50 might be another, depends on how other two races go,if i can make a profit out of first two i'll leave 5.50 alone,

[mookie2007]

Yeah unfortunately i don't have a befair account just 365 & powers.

Might open one as it is a pain even trying to pick out 2,3 & 4 in terms of odds on 365 & powers.

Btw went for the 5:50 as well - won with nacho libre as the 4:20 in Kempton lost.

And no I'm not betting big amounts. Just small amounts to test it out.

Going well so far anyway.

[argosy2006]

4.20 KEMPTON -3.00
5.20 KEMPTON -3.00
5.50 KEMPTON +9.92

STAKED 9
LOST 8
WON 9.92
PROFIT + 1.92 PT

[argosy2006]

2.35 called off
3.10 called off
4.20 - 3.00
4.50 +6.61

next three in market on betfair, just before the off,

staked 6
lost 5pts
won 6.61
profit 0.61

[argosy2006]

12.45 -3.00
2.00 +9.80
3.10 -3.00 ,,winner in bookies though,

backing next three in market bf, just before off

STAKED 9
LOST 8.00
WON 9.80

PROFIT 0.80