[SkepticOne]

Originally Posted by jmayo

Ahh FFS SkepticOne,
the Icelandic people are viking true and true, in other words they are like their modern Scandanavian cousins who don't accept shoddy inept sh**e like we do.

They only protested when large numbers of Icelandic society were personally effected by the crisis. When they suddenly lost savings or suddenly lost their jobs. If the government had been able to drag the damage out over several years so that individual losses could not be so easily be attributed to a single event then the government there might have survived. However, due to the scale of he banking problems there, the option to drag things out weren't open to them.

Things like NAMA, though inadvisable, don't immediately hit you in the pocket. However I agree with Amhran Nua that the next budget could be different story.

I don't have a problem with any of this. It is not for the ordinary citizen to know about debt for equity swaps or whether or not NAMA is a good idea; the government pays tens of millions for advice on these issues. It is when those policies fail that the ordinary citizen becomes aware and that is when they (quite rightly) punish the government.

The Icelanders didn't protest when their boom was underway even though the government was persuing policies that led to their calamity but rather when those policies demonstrably failed.

Ireland's next budget could be the equivalent of the Iceland event or it could be bank runs next year or something else. But to expect major protest before then is unrealistic in any country imo.

[Bill2673]

Originally Posted by jmayo

Ahh FFS SkepticOne,
the Icelandic people are viking true and true, in other words they are like their modern Scandanavian cousins who don't accept shoddy inept sh**e like we do.

We have had more than enough shocks.
We had NAMA which only a few protested about.
Hell the Greens had more protesting about A stag hunt being banned than signing up the taxpayers present and future to buy 70 billion worth of sh**e loans that are realistically worth half that.
oh yes i know they only cost us 50 odd but don't forget they still cost us the other 20 odd in recapitalisation.

We had the shock of being told that Anglo was now going to cost us over 30 billion and not the few billion it first cost.
We had nationalisation of AIB, the naiotnalisation of a little mortgage lender called INBS whose CEO walked away with 28 million.

What is your definition of a shock ?
In any other country biffo and his gang would be in hiding, facing jail or maybe even in fear of a one way trip in the back of an APC.

You do of course have some truth in the fact that the ENTIRE population couldn't give a cr** since some are more worried about who will win x factor or who will take over Liverpool FC.



Weren't Davy's a bit like Goodbody's who were advising people to invest in Irish bank shares as they were beginning to tumble ?
These would be the same banks that they were linked to.

Iceland faced a more or less overnight situation where (i) the currency halved in a three month period versus the euro (ii) therefore the price of imported goods doubled (which are most things in their economy) (iii) their banks folded (iv) the govt defaulted and required IMF bail out - I assume linked to this there was a severe austerity package that saw pucblic service wages falling sharply (against the background of a doubling of prices).....

The shock effect was much more severe at a personal level in Iceland. No matter what way you cut it, in Ireland the effect on peoples personal lives has been limited compared to what the Icelandics went through - that is to say, if you ignore what is happening at a national level and look strictly at what is happening at a personal level - most people here still have their jobs (unemployment nowhere near Spanish levels for example); wages have come down, but not all that much (even in public service, avg wages here still way above EU average - you compare how much a portuguese civil servant is paid versus and Irish civil servant, even today, or even after the next budget); prices have moderated in some areas to counter this (interest rates are lower). We had booming car sales this year, we've seen a couple of major concerts for next summer selling out this week.....

[Bill2673]

Originally Posted by SkepticOne

They only protested when large numbers of Icelandic society were personally effected by the crisis. When they suddenly lost savings or suddenly lost their jobs. If the government had been able to drag the damage out over several years so that individual losses could not be so easily be attributed to a single event then the government there might have survived. However, due to the scale of he banking problems there, the option to drag things out weren't open to them.

Things like NAMA, though inadvisable, don't immediately hit you in the pocket. However I agree with Amhran Nua that the next budget could be different story.

I don't have a problem with any of this. It is not for the ordinary citizen to know about debt for equity swaps or whether or not NAMA is a good idea; the government pays tens of millions for advice on these issues. It is when those policies fail that the ordinary citizen becomes aware and that is when they (quite rightly) punish the government.

The Icelanders didn't protest when their boom was underway even though the government was persuing policies that led to their calamity but rather when those policies demonstrably failed.

Ireland's next budget could be the equivalent of the Iceland event or it could be bank runs next year or something else. But to expect major protest before then is unrealistic in any country imo.

I agree with your overall message.

Just a comment on Icelands downfall - my understanding was that it was their banks and local 'entrepreneurs' that ran amok, and that the government failed to regulate them - much like us, although I'd guess on even a large scale than us. Remember the Icelandic guy buying up West Ham football club, or the chap building up the stake in EasyJet, or the chap who was buying up various retail chains in Europe, all debt funded by the local banks. Bear in mind this country has a population the size of Cork City. (And at the time of excess, they were being applauded for their 'viking spirit' btw).

[ei.sdraob]

Originally Posted by jmayo

Weren't Davy's a bit like Goodbody's who were advising people to invest in Irish bank shares as they were beginning to tumble ?
These would be the same banks that they were linked to.

Davy's predicting house price recovery in mid 2008


------------------


anyways could be worse could Bloxham!

GHOSE PREDICTS PROPERTY PRICES TO RISE BY 7-10% THIS YEAR - This time 12 months ago, Pramit Ghose, managing partner at Bloxham Stockbrokers, came on the business news to tell us about his surprise list of market forecasts for 2009. Those predictions would not necessarily be shared by all members of the forecasting fraternity. In the interests of accountability, we have Pramit Ghose back to find out how his forecasts did and what he sees ahead for 2010.

with 2 months left Pramit is cutting it close

[ei.sdraob]

ooh look it here at the dirt i dug up on Davy's

J&E Davy stockbrokers have brought a High Court challenge to a decision by the Financial Services Ombudsman to uphold a complaint by a credit union over advice on three bank bonds which fell in value.

The Ombudsman last month found the bonds were unsuitable investments for credit unions and directed Davy to pay Enfield Credit Union, in Co Meath, €500,000 in exchange for the bonds. He also ordered a refund of all fees and commissions paid to it in connection with the matter.

The Ombudsman upheld complaints by the credit union that Davy had failed to disclose material information when advising it about the perpetual bonds and failed to make it clear the bonds did not have a contractually fixed maturity date, which it said was fundamental to the way it manages its investments.

Risks

He found Davy did not alert the credit union, adequately or at all, to the risks inherent in the bonds.

The credit union said it made a total investment of €500,000 in the three bonds between September 2004 and April 2005 and the value of the investments in July 2007 was €422,959.

Now that Davy's have commented on Morgan Kelly's article, they are only giving him more weight.

[andrewdcs]

Kelly is bang on, the mortgage crisis (despite BOI claiming ' stabilising' impairments today) will smack us full in the face once the cuts start to bite. Standard word is to 'cut' a budget, but 'suffocate' would be a more appropriate verb in our sorry case. From the shape and sounds they'll knock out the only revenue stream half the countries businesses and individuals have, Ireland is a 'quasi' liberal free market economy. Budgetary suffocation in a fiscal straight jacket.

You DO NOT take 6 billion out of an economy the shape and size of ours in a year without massive tail problems.

One (horrid) way to avoid thousands of economically productive (i.e. young) people falling behind / falling out every month is to disproportionately penalise the elderly who don't (generally) have mortgages to pay, or services to consume. Squeezing pensions, care, entitlements, imposing property tax, inheritance tax. I.e. squeezing the instruments and assets of those least capable to survive it (literally) hand in the pocket of those who've prayed and saved all their lives to see their children destroy the legacy they wish for their grandchildren.

If the past 30 years have seen a transfer of 'real' wealth control to an older generation and financial institutions that manage them, then the next few will see the opposite in brutal fashion. It's basically what happens in Latin american countries every once in a while... viva la revolucion..

Sadly this is the MOST unfair way to address the problem, hitting those that (on the face of it) deserve it least, but hell, deserves got nothing to do with it, or we'd be jailing fraudsters hucksters and ponzi merchants here like our cousins back west do...

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Savings_and_loan_crisis

Oh, you'll be glad to note that Anglos pensions contributions have been met in full by you the tax payer. I believe the phrase "Suck it up bitches" is appropriate.

[dan_d]

Originally Posted by andrewdcs

Oh, you'll be glad to note that Anglos pensions contributions have been met in full by you the tax payer. I believe the phrase "Suck it up bitches" is appropriate.

I don't think that's actually true...have gone searching for the article, it was either yesterday's Indo or today's Times, but I believe that the pension investors in Anglo took a wiser view of risk than the other members of the bank, and invested wisely. I don't think the current health of their pension pot has anything to do with the taxpayer. Sorry, I can't find the link.

[kaiser sauze]

Originally Posted by Amhran Nua

I'm afraid you just don't understand; when a country goes "bankrupt" all bets are effectively off. It certainly is possible, and highly justifiable.

Then you do not understand how we will not be allowed to renege on our blanket bank guarantee.

Originally Posted by Amhran Nua

It doesn't need to be brought down. Europe has a bit of a history when it comes to going overboard on "punishments", and I doubt thats a history they will want to see repeated.

Yeah, Greece was 'easy'!

Originally Posted by Amhran Nua

So tell us, what exactly are the ramifications of what he is saying? Don't even bother saying "we're finished".

Uhm, the last few days are just the start.

Originally Posted by Amhran Nua

I sure do. I don't know hundreds of thousands who are paying off their mortgages by borrowing from their parents and going hungry. Do you?

Yes, I am paying/helping/contributing to a couple myself.

Originally Posted by Amhran Nua

Imagine, asking for statistical proof. I should just take it on faith, like you're doing. I don't do faith, sorry.

And you seem to have a problem with reality.

Originally Posted by Amhran Nua

The UK is a very different country to the RoI, which has been shown over and over again, thankfully.

Your point?

Originally Posted by Amhran Nua

Yeah he is. I doubt that's what he literally meant, but it doesn't aid his argument in any way, unless he's trying to drum up hysteria.

You are getting hysteria and reality mixed up again.

Seriously, would Amhrán Nua be this interested in massaging messages and not letting people know it like it is?

Originally Posted by Amhran Nua

Wow, if Morgan told you to leap from a tall building, would you do it? As long as your hero talks sense, I've no problem listening to him, right up until he stops doing so.

Originally Posted by Amhran Nua

So we can look forward to more articles then.

He does not write often, but they have been shown to be right for the most part.

[Slozer]

Moran Kelly has a great track record and he is way ahead of the curve. A damning outlook of the future of our economy and one we have to take as gospel if policies dont change.