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Originally Posted by deise go deo
Well fair enough The odds were bad alright but I think the figure I saw for the number of British troops in Ireland at the time of the truce was around 80,000 and at this time the IRA were stil able to function.
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Now imagine those numbers were more than doubled. There is significant statistical evidence that suggests that while 1920 saw the most amount of succesful IRA engagements (ie, the IRA ended up killing somebody) 1921 saw the biggest amount of engagements without any casualties - ie, the number of manoeuvres increased without a concurrent increase in casualties inflicted.
What the IRA achieved was remarkable. (and there is good reason why Tom Barry's 'Guerrila Days in Ireland' is required reading at Westpoint) They maintained de facto control of large parts of Munster and were King at night time in many rural areas. They forced a retreat of the RIC from rural police outposts. They made it practically impossible for the British Empire to function in large parts of the country due to sabotage of telgraphs, post etc. The Dáil courts destroyed the fundamental power of the law and hence stripped British authority down to its marrow. But I highly doubt they could have continued for much longer. Certainly not to the same extent.
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As for the arms suition there was evedience that this would have improved if the war had continued as there was an arms shipment planned, in the event this was brought in dureing the truce.
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I don't know where you are getting this from. There was little over 3,000 rifles in Ireland at the time and as I have already said, 1 bullet per 50 volunteers (Which suggests that the vast majority of units had absolutely no ammunition - even the best armed, such as Tom Barry's, had only 40 or 50 rounds at any time) The IRA were far from being well armed and there is little evidence to suggest they were capable of a large scale arms import. By God, they did try though.