[dolanbaker]

Originally Posted by Capt'n Midnight

But it shows how oil is being squandered

It also shows just how much supplies could dwindle by before the doomsday scenario of people being stranded in suburbs and starving, as in cutting out the wasteful uses to provide supplies for the more important things.

It will be a long, slow transition forced by high prices killing demand for produce manufactured using large quantities of oil.

Unfortunately, for the west the real issue is the fact that every time we make a saving in consumption, the Chinese will take up the slack in supply.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2...ales-overtakes

China overtakes US as world's biggest car market• 13.5m vehicles sold in China in 2009, 10.4m in US
• China sees 45% growth in car industry year-on-year

[dolanbaker]

http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20100413/bs_nm/us_iea_3

Quote:

World oil demand to hit record high this year: IEA

LONDON (Reuters) – Global oil demand will hit a record high this year, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said on Tuesday, revising up consumption estimates as the world economy recovers from recession.

The Paris-based adviser to industrialized economies raised its forecast for world oil demand growth this year to 1.67 million barrels per day (bpd), up 100,000 bpd.

The agency said in its monthly Oil Market Report that world oil demand would reach an average of 86.60 million bpd this year, up from 84.93 million in 2009.

The previous record high for world oil demand was 86.5 million bpd in 2007 before the onset of the global financial crisis and economic slowdown.

"There are signs of oil demand picking up in North America and the Pacific, Asia and the Middle East although consumption in Europe still looks weak," David Fyfe, head of the IEA's Oil Industry and Markets Division, told Reuters.

But the extra demand will largely be met by production from outside the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries.

The IEA raised its forecast for non-OPEC output in 2010 by 220,000 bpd to around 52.0 million bpd due to higher output by OECD countries. Overall, non-OPEC supply is expected to rise by around 500,000 bpd this year.

As a result, the IEA estimated demand this year for OPEC crude and stocks would fall by 200,000 bpd to 29.1 million bpd.

This will test the "peak oil" theory a bit, can supply keep up or will prices continue to rise.

[YFlyer]

Petrobras could increase production by 6 fold within the next ten years. They have found a number of significant wells with crude having an API of around 28.

http://www.oil-price.net/en/articles...-oil-again.php

[dolanbaker]

Originally Posted by YFlyer

Petrobras could increase production by 6 fold within the next ten years. They have found a number of significant wells with crude having an API of around 28.

http://www.oil-price.net/en/articles...-oil-again.php

The recoverable reserves of the accumulations have been put at 65 million barrels

About one days worth!

[YFlyer]

Yeah it seems small however the Campos Basin has a confirmed reserve of 7.21 Billion barrels of oil.

They are finding new wells all the time. Even in shallow water

[dolanbaker]

OK we're up to 100 days worth now from one field. But this underlines the simple fact that it is being consumed quicker than it is being found.

As I said further up, consumption is still increasing and at some point will outstrip supply and force prices up unless the supply can be increased.



This recent price chart shows demand driving up prices rather than supply increasing to hold prices steady.
As to why, either supply is being withheld to keep prices high or supply can't keep up with demand.

I don't know which it is but either way it's bad news for consumers.

Edit: forgot to add the fact that as oil is priced in US dollars, it looks much worse than it actually is because the value of the dollar is falling rapidly as well, therefore the rise in real terms is only about half the dollar price.

[dolanbaker]

http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2...upply%EF%BB%BF

The US military has warned that surplus oil production capacity could disappear within two years and there could be serious shortages by 2015 with a significant economic and political impact.

The energy crisis outlined in a Joint Operating Environment report from the US Joint Forces Command, comes as the price of petrol in Britain reaches record levels and the cost of crude is predicted to soon top $100 a barrel.

"By 2012, surplus oil production capacity could entirely disappear, and as early as 2015, the shortfall in output could reach nearly 10 million barrels per day," says the report, which has a foreword by a senior commander, General James N Mattis.

Not new news, but still scary all the same.

[zod]

Good movie here .. primarily on peak oil

[dolanbaker]

Demand destruction is already well under way here in the west, for all practical purposes we are already experiencing the affects of peak oil.

[dolanbaker]

http://www.energybulletin.net/52667

The peak of oil production is passed



We can no longer afford to sit around discussing whether or not we have passed the peak of oil production. We cannot wait, complacently, for price signals to stimulate the development of alternative sources of energy since oil prices will fluctuate wildly. Every time the economy tries to grow, oil demand will exceed supply, causing the oil price to spike up. This will strangle the economy, reduce oil demand and cause the price to fall. Oil companies cannot invest in the face of these wild fluctuations in price. Most importantly, we must remember that to do anything at all requires energy. So, while oil is still relatively abundant, we must invest as much as we can to develop the energy sources of the future. Once the oil supply starts to decrease significantly, we will be too busy just trying to keep food production and essential services running to have any energy left over for building expensive high-tech alternative energy infrastructure.

The peak of oil production was two years ago. For the sake of my children, and your children, we need to just accept that fact and deal with it. When it comes to investing in energy alternatives, do it now, because it will not be possible later.

_________________

[zod]

Fast forward to about 1:50



Talking about 300 dollar barrels of oil on CNBC

[dolanbaker]

Interesting theory on the next phase of "peak oil", as of today it appears to be "following the script".

http://www.oftwominds.com/blogmay10/head-fake05-10.html

In May 2008 I proposed the Oil "Head-Fake" Scenario in which global recession will drive oil demand down even as oil exporters pump their maximum production in a futile attempt to fund their vast welfare states and thus retain their precarious political power.
Oil: One Last Head-Fake? (May 9, 2008) The terrible irony of the head-fake, of course, is that the exporters' mad efforts to pump more oil merely exacerbates the oversupply, further depressing prices, which are set on the margin. As exporters receive fewer dollars for their production, they attempt to compensate by pumping even more oil. Perniciously, this suppresses prices even more, setting up a positive feedback loop which pushed prices into full-blown collapse.

[boc123]

I'm currently reading Matt Simmons "Twighlight in the Desert". This whole issue to me is the scariest thing going on at the moment. Very surprised that it doesn't receive more mainstream attention.

I suppose it will fairly soon...

[coletti]

The price of oil is largely based on the perception of availability of supply. It is to be noted that the oil companies make billions of extra dollars when the price is kept high. Literally billions.

[Macha]

Actually there is evidence that investors are not always to blame for high commodity prices:


http://www.economist.com/node/16432870