[rameire]

cant wait for this to start, traffic is going to be absolutely nuts, around Newlands X for a few years.
Thankfully I have a motorbike and will be able to wizz past.

I wish Mysterious was here to tell us all how it should be done.

[mydiscworld]

Originally Posted by rameire

cant wait for this to start, traffic is going to be absolutely nuts, around Newlands X for a few years.
Thankfully I have a motorbike and will be able to wizz past.

I wish Mysterious was here to tell us all how it should be done.

Yes, I'd be quite interested to see their traffic management plan while this is being built.

They do have that land to the side boarded up. Guessing temporary lanes going in there

[rameire]

they sure are, they will also be moving the cross roads junction south onto the belgard road for some time while building the overpass.

[spacetweek]

I thought this was bundled with M11 Arklow and on the other thread that's been deferred to 10th October.

[BuzzFish]

Just had an update from the NRA....

"The latest info regarding the proposed Newlands Cross scheme is that it is anticipated that the contract will be awarded in Q4 2012 with construction commencing immediately following the signing."

[Irish and Proud]

Originally Posted by BuzzFish

Just had an update from the NRA....

"The latest info regarding the proposed Newlands Cross scheme is that it is anticipated that the contract will be awarded in Q4 2012 with construction commencing immediately following the signing."

Just not good enough - AFAIK, our national finances are running ahead of target - IMO, the government should just decouple NLX and retender it on a state funded basis - the M11 could be rebundled with something like the M7 widening project to create a new PPP. BAM and BB should be ousted IMO.

[mydiscworld]

Originally Posted by BuzzFish

Just had an update from the NRA....

"The latest info regarding the proposed Newlands Cross scheme is that it is anticipated that the contract will be awarded in Q4 2012 with construction commencing immediately following the signing."

What are the NRA up to

On June 13th they said

"Just been on to NRA today and informed me that contract is due to be awarded in July and work will commence as soon as contract is signed"

And now a week later it's gone from July to October at earliest. FFS

[NEDDURC]

That's very disappointing. It's a ridiculous hold up every day for thousands of people. Even the most basic feasability study would show a fast payback and benefit greatly outweighing cost.

The country is crying out for some construction jobs. To take a couple of hundred people off the dole and back paying taxes alone would suggest this is a no brainer.

[antoobrien]

Originally Posted by NEDDURC

The country is crying out for some construction jobs. To take a couple of hundred people off the dole and back paying taxes alone would suggest this is a no brainer.

I hate to be a killjoy but the construction jobs while the project is ongoing worst possible justification for building something - it has to provide a long term economic benefit.


But lets crunch some numbers to see what it could save if it takes 200 people off the dole.

Allowing for an 18 month project (don't know the proposed timescale) the savings would be in the order of €188*200*78=€3m

Let's just say we double that for miscellaneous benefits - 6m cost saved by the exchequer isn't exactly a great return - assuming they're all on the dole.

Allowing for the average wage (no idea how realistic), taxes (incl prsi & usc) will be about €8,500 each - €1.7m. Okay we're up to about €8m in savings and taxes.

How does that compare against the €180m cost of NX/N11.

It's a nice bonus but an immediate (optimistic) return of 5% of the cost isn't a good enough reason to start.

[NEDDURC]

antoobrien - I take your point but I would say you are underestimating these benefits and the knock on benefits quite substantially.

I don't know the details of the costs and I guess if they are still looking at tenders then this is unknown. However, taking your €180m, on a broad basis I would estimate appprox 20% is labour costs. Then taking 30% of this for taxes gives about €10m benefit alone.

You also don't factor the effect this extra income would have on the wider economy.

There will of course be knock on job benefits - e.g. the company supplying the raw materials will probably need additional people etc.

The long term economic benefit is also very clear in terms of the huge amounts of lost time that will now be saved and the increased attractiveness of Ireland as a place to do business.

[antoobrien]

Originally Posted by NEDDURC

The long term economic benefit is also very clear in terms of the huge amounts of lost time that will now be saved and the increased attractiveness of Ireland as a place to do business.

I don't for a second doubt that it's a project that should be started now, if only for the possibility that we might be in recovery by the time this is finished. However I dopn't think that it can be justified in an immediate sense, which is what I took from your post.

Originally Posted by NEDDURC

antoobrien - I take your point but I would say you are underestimating these benefits and the knock on benefits quite substantially.

I'm not - I've totally ignored them because (a) I don't know how to do so - so anything I say is total guesswork and (b) your post only mentioned getting people off the dole and paying taxes. As I said spending €180m to get back €8m over 2 years isn't exactly a great return.

Originally Posted by NEDDURC

I don't know the details of the costs and I guess if they are still looking at tenders then this is unknown. However, taking your €180m, on a broad basis I would estimate approx 20% is labour costs. Then taking 30% of this for taxes gives about €10m benefit alone.

You also don't factor the effect this extra income would have on the wider economy.

The €180m is the "original" tender price, so the actual cost will probably be less (a good example of this is the estimated costs of GCOB - down from €340m in 2008 to €120m now).

I don't believe that the knock on effects of the income will be huge. We're talking what up to 30m (which is about right for my tax predictions)?

Oh btw you've missed out on VAT and excise on the on supplies & equipment (which I didn't bother with).

Originally Posted by NEDDURC

There will of course be knock on job benefits - e.g. the company supplying the raw materials will probably need additional people etc.

Point taken, but I'd argue that a lot of the suppliers (e.g. Lagan) would probably end up consolidating their business rather than bringing in new people. I believe that the benefits to the suppliers, combined with the extra income would help top stabilize things in the area - which if it can be quantified may well be a good enough reason to start. But I'd be very skeptical.

[spacetweek]

Very disappointed by all this, and in fairness to the gov the issue doesn't seem to be on their end.

[NEDDURC]

spacetweek - how can you tell the hold up isn't on the governments end? What are they waiting on to award the contract?

Is the recently announced change to the European Investment Bank have any impact on speeding this up?

[spacetweek]

Originally Posted by NEDDURC

spacetweek - how can you tell the hold up isn't on the governments end? What are they waiting on to award the contract?

Has the contract not already been awarded?

[antoobrien]

Originally Posted by spacetweek

Has the contract not already been awarded?

The tender winner has been announced but the contract hasn't been signed - same story (and contractor afaik) as M17/18