Tropical Storm DANNY

maquiladora · 26-08-2009, 14:45

000
WTNT35 KNHC 261443
TCPAT5
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM DANNY ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052009
1100 AM EDT WED AUG 26 2009

...THE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER EAST OF THE BAHAMAS BECOMES
TROPICAL STORM DANNY...

INTERESTS IN THE BAHAMAS AND THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF DANNY.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA
OUTSIDE OF THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

AT 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DANNY WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 70.3 WEST OR ABOUT
445 MILES...715 KM...EAST OF NASSAU AND ABOUT 775 MILES...1250 KM...
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA.

DANNY IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 18 MPH...30 KM/HR.
A GENERAL NORTHWESTWARD MOTION WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS
EXPECTED TODAY AND THURSDAY...WITH A TURN TOWARD THE
NORTH-NORTHWEST EXPECTED ON FRIDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SLOW STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...220 KM
MAINLY TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE ESTIMATED FROM NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER
AIRCRAFT DATA IS 1009 MB...29.80 INCHES.

DANNY IS EXPECTED TO CAUSE STORM TOTAL RAINFALL OF 2 TO 3 INCHES...
WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 4 INCHES...OVER THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS. STORM TOTAL RAINFALL OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE
EXPECTED OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS
ISLANDS.

...SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT INFORMATION...
LOCATION...24.9N 70.3W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 18 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
500 PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

redsunset · 26-08-2009, 14:58

If Danny intensifies and follows that path,New York could be in a bit of bother

maquiladora · 26-08-2009, 15:16

Will have a better idea of the path/intensity after the next batch of model runs come out. At the moment it seems unlikely it'll be anything more than a Cat 1.

M.T. Cranium · 26-08-2009, 18:16

As I posted in the forecast thread, Danny is going to be a difficult case for the models and even the NHC, any sort of track forecast today is going to be relatively low confidence, in other words, double or triple the usual track uncertainties days 3-5. In fact, there is still some chance that no hurricane will develop, just as there's some chance of a swerve inland at any point north of Georgia, with the result being a phased low inland (with low pressure across the lower Great Lakes region). This would not necessarily lead to a massive model error as that energy was already part of the solutions, but you'll notice that the major models have Danny crossing the Atlantic about where Bill tracked, but the NHC track is already several degrees west and north of the Bill track, which extrapolated would head more towards Iceland.

Basic idea is, wait for about Friday to get any real confidence on the outcome. There are some factors that suggest low intensity and poor organization, but if Danny overcame those, there would be unusually warm waters as far north as Long Island to draw from, so there again, intensity forecasts are very speculative at this point.

redsunset · 27-08-2009, 01:40

I've discovered a fantastic real time satellite website for the whole world.just click on any part of the world and that region appears underneat.Tropical Storm Danny can clearly be seen here or anything you like in the world,just excellent.

http://www.ssec.wisc.edu/sose/real_time.html

redsunset · 27-08-2009, 01:55

warm waters not a problem to help our Danny boy grow.

redsunset · 27-08-2009, 02:21

great quality one for Danny thats also animated

http://www.ssec.wisc.edu/data/us_comp/us_comp.html

redsunset · 28-08-2009, 10:31

still early days with this one but looking very similar to Bills path,

force eleven · 29-08-2009, 09:16

Interesting that the National Hurricane Center wind forecast has Danny now about 35kts and as it becomes extra tropical - winds at 120 hrs - 5days from now are expected to increase to 50 kts. NHC have ex Danny tracking near the north coast fo Ireland by Day 5 , so we may have to watch this with interest. A lot of variables to deal with before that, but we shall see.

maquiladora · 30-08-2009, 09:29

RIP Danny. He fizzled out. NHC has discontinued issuing the tropical storm watches and will no longer issue any updates about the storm.

26-08-2009, 14:45	#1
maquiladora Registered User Join Date: May 2005 Posts: 1,970 Adverts \| Friends	Tropical Storm DANNY 000 WTNT35 KNHC 261443 TCPAT5 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM DANNY ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052009 1100 AM EDT WED AUG 26 2009 ...THE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER EAST OF THE BAHAMAS BECOMES TROPICAL STORM DANNY... INTERESTS IN THE BAHAMAS AND THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF DANNY. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE OF THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. AT 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DANNY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 70.3 WEST OR ABOUT 445 MILES...715 KM...EAST OF NASSAU AND ABOUT 775 MILES...1250 KM... SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA. DANNY IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 18 MPH...30 KM/HR. A GENERAL NORTHWESTWARD MOTION WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED TODAY AND THURSDAY...WITH A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST EXPECTED ON FRIDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SLOW STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...220 KM MAINLY TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE ESTIMATED FROM NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT DATA IS 1009 MB...29.80 INCHES. DANNY IS EXPECTED TO CAUSE STORM TOTAL RAINFALL OF 2 TO 3 INCHES... WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 4 INCHES...OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS. STORM TOTAL RAINFALL OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS. ...SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT INFORMATION... LOCATION...24.9N 70.3W MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 18 MPH MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 500 PM EDT. $$ FORECASTER BEVEN

26-08-2009, 14:58	#2
redsunset Registered User Join Date: Nov 2008 Location: east laois (bordering kildare and carlow) Posts: 936 Adverts \| Friends	If Danny intensifies and follows that path,New York could be in a bit of bother __________________

27-08-2009, 01:55	#6
redsunset Registered User Join Date: Nov 2008 Location: east laois (bordering kildare and carlow) Posts: 936 Adverts \| Friends	warm waters not a problem to help our Danny boy grow. __________________

28-08-2009, 10:31	#8
redsunset Registered User Join Date: Nov 2008 Location: east laois (bordering kildare and carlow) Posts: 936 Adverts \| Friends	still early days with this one but looking very similar to Bills path, __________________

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26-08-2009, 15:16	#3
maquiladora Registered User Join Date: May 2005 Posts: 1,970 Adverts \| Friends	Will have a better idea of the path/intensity after the next batch of model runs come out. At the moment it seems unlikely it'll be anything more than a Cat 1.

26-08-2009, 18:16	#4
M.T. Cranium Registered User Join Date: Apr 2007 Location: Canada Posts: 1,024 Adverts \| Friends	As I posted in the forecast thread, Danny is going to be a difficult case for the models and even the NHC, any sort of track forecast today is going to be relatively low confidence, in other words, double or triple the usual track uncertainties days 3-5. In fact, there is still some chance that no hurricane will develop, just as there's some chance of a swerve inland at any point north of Georgia, with the result being a phased low inland (with low pressure across the lower Great Lakes region). This would not necessarily lead to a massive model error as that energy was already part of the solutions, but you'll notice that the major models have Danny crossing the Atlantic about where Bill tracked, but the NHC track is already several degrees west and north of the Bill track, which extrapolated would head more towards Iceland. Basic idea is, wait for about Friday to get any real confidence on the outcome. There are some factors that suggest low intensity and poor organization, but if Danny overcame those, there would be unusually warm waters as far north as Long Island to draw from, so there again, intensity forecasts are very speculative at this point.

29-08-2009, 09:16	#9
force eleven Registered User Join Date: Jul 2006 Location: Moate Posts: 510 Adverts \| Friends	Interesting that the National Hurricane Center wind forecast has Danny now about 35kts and as it becomes extra tropical - winds at 120 hrs - 5days from now are expected to increase to 50 kts. NHC have ex Danny tracking near the north coast fo Ireland by Day 5 , so we may have to watch this with interest. A lot of variables to deal with before that, but we shall see.

30-08-2009, 09:29	#10
maquiladora Registered User Join Date: May 2005 Posts: 1,970 Adverts \| Friends	RIP Danny. He fizzled out. NHC has discontinued issuing the tropical storm watches and will no longer issue any updates about the storm.