Millionaire Raffle

qwytre · 26-08-2009, 12:39

anyone care to calculate my probability of winning a cash prize on tonights millionaire raffle??

I have 5 tickets, there are a total of 300,000 tickets in the pot and there are 532 prizes?

Would I be a bit optimistic if I was to hand in my notice?

Fremen · 26-08-2009, 13:07

Approximately 0.883533% chance of winning at least one prize.

EL_Loco · 26-08-2009, 13:11

hope you get the first top 5 prizes, and give me a donation for wishing it on you!

I left it too late to buy a ticket.

Rujib1 · 26-08-2009, 13:16

Quote:

Originally Posted by Fremen

Approximately 0.883533% chance of winning at least one prize.

That means you should give in your notice, as you probably have a better chance of winning the lottery than holding opn to your job in this climate.

jump before you get the push

qwytre · 26-08-2009, 13:17

Quote:

Originally Posted by Fremen

Approximately 0.883533% chance of winning at least one prize.

Is it really that high? Almost a 1 in 100 chance?! Hardly...

Fremen · 26-08-2009, 13:31

Yep. A simplified way to look at it is that if you only had one ticket your chances would be 532/300,000 which is about .17%. Multiplying by 5 gives about .8%.

In reality, they won't replace the tickets once they've drawn them, so the number of winning tickets drawn follows a Hypergeometric Distribution, which is what I posted above. The answer I gave in my original post is very close to the appproximate answer because the number of tickets is so large.

qwytre · 26-08-2009, 13:39

Not bad so, a 1 in 100 chance of winning 500 euro at a minimum.

Fremen · 26-08-2009, 13:41

Bet you payed more than a fiver for the tickets though

qwytre · 26-08-2009, 14:45

Quote:

Originally Posted by Fremen

Bet you payed more than a fiver for the tickets though

Em, yeah - 100 euro for 5 tickets! I see it as a speculative investment

**Mellor** · 28-08-2009, 02:05

Quote:

Originally Posted by qwytre

Not bad so, a 1 in 100 chance of winning 500 euro at a minimum.

I'd say its pretty terible

Quote:

Originally Posted by Fremen

Bet you payed more than a fiver for the tickets though

Yeah, but thats the min, the higher prizes increase the value of the tickets

€1,000,000 - 1 in 150,000..e6.67
€100,000 - 1 in 60,000.....e1.66
€10,000 - 1 in 6,667........e1.50
€5,000 - 1 in 3,750..........e1.33
€1,000 - 1 in 3,000............33c
€500 - 1 in 1,000..............50c

Total, e11.66

just like regular lotto, its an unintelligence tax

qwytre · 28-08-2009, 12:43

Quote:

Originally Posted by Mellor

just like regular lotto, its an unintelligence tax

My neighbours who won 3m a few years ago dont really care!

Didnt win anything myself in the draw, shame. But I am super intelligent.

Munster Tom · 31-08-2009, 12:24

The only way to be sure to win on the eejit-tax is not to play, and take advantage of the public money made available by other people's "generosity"

26-08-2009, 12:39	#1
qwytre Registered User Join Date: Mar 2006 Posts: 249 Adverts \| Friends	Millionaire Raffle anyone care to calculate my probability of winning a cash prize on tonights millionaire raffle?? I have 5 tickets, there are a total of 300,000 tickets in the pot and there are 532 prizes? Would I be a bit optimistic if I was to hand in my notice?

26-08-2009, 13:31	#6
Fremen Registered User Join Date: May 2006 Location: arrakis Posts: 1,147 Adverts \| Friends	Yep. A simplified way to look at it is that if you only had one ticket your chances would be 532/300,000 which is about .17%. Multiplying by 5 gives about .8%. In reality, they won't replace the tickets once they've drawn them, so the number of winning tickets drawn follows a Hypergeometric Distribution, which is what I posted above. The answer I gave in my original post is very close to the appproximate answer because the number of tickets is so large. Last edited by Fremen; 26-08-2009 at 13:36.

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26-08-2009, 13:07	#2
Fremen Registered User Join Date: May 2006 Location: arrakis Posts: 1,147 Adverts \| Friends	Approximately 0.883533% chance of winning at least one prize.

26-08-2009, 13:11	#3
EL_Loco Registered User Join Date: Aug 2002 Location: my house Posts: 487 Adverts \| Friends	hope you get the first top 5 prizes, and give me a donation for wishing it on you! I left it too late to buy a ticket.

26-08-2009, 13:39	#7
qwytre Registered User Join Date: Mar 2006 Posts: 249 Adverts \| Friends	Not bad so, a 1 in 100 chance of winning 500 euro at a minimum.

26-08-2009, 13:41	#8
Fremen Registered User Join Date: May 2006 Location: arrakis Posts: 1,147 Adverts \| Friends	Bet you payed more than a fiver for the tickets though

31-08-2009, 12:24	#12
Munster Tom Registered User Join Date: Aug 2009 Posts: 5 Adverts \| Friends	The only way to be sure to win on the eejit-tax is not to play, and take advantage of the public money made available by other people's "generosity"