Hurricane BILL

[trogdor]

Another one forming up in the Atlantic!
Looks like they expect this to become a bit stronger than TS ANA


TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032009
1100 AM AST SAT AUG 15 2009

SATELLITE IMAGERY AND QUIKSCAT DATA INDICATE THAT THE BROAD AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC HAS FORMED A WELL-DEFINED
CIRCULATION AND SUFFICIENTLY ORGANIZED CONVECTION TO BE DESIGNATED A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS 30 KT BASED ON THE
QUIKSCAT DATA...AS WELL AS SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 30 AND
35 KT FROM SAB AND TAFB.

THE SYSTEM IS CONSOLIDATING SOUTH OF WHERE THE CENTER WAS BEING
TRACKED YESTERDAY...AND THE INITIAL MOTION IS A SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN
265/15. SOME ERRATIC MOTION IS POSSIBLE TODAY AS THE DEPRESSION
INTERACTS WITH THE ELONGATED MONSOON/TROPICAL WAVE CIRCULATION THAT
SPAWNED IT. OVERALL...DEEP-LAYER HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN ATLANTIC SHOULD STEER THE CYCLONE GENERALLY WESTWARD
FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE WEST-
NORTHWEST. THE TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
THIS SCENARIO...AND THERE IS A FAIRLY TIGHT CLUSTER OF THE MODELS
AROUND THE 5 DAY FORECAST POINT. ONE EXCEPTION IS THE ECMWF...
WHICH FORECASTS SIGNIFICANTLY MORE NORTHWARD MOTION THAN THE OTHER
MODELS AND AT THIS TIME IS A RIGHT OUTLIER.

THE CYCLONE IS IN DEEP-LAYER EASTERLY FLOW WITH LIGHT/MODERATE
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR FORECAST FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 4 DAYS. ALL
INTENSITY GUIDANCE FORECASTS THE SYSTEM TO BECOME A HURRICANE BY
THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...WITH THE HWRF FORECASTING A MAJOR
HURRICANE. THE INTENSITY FORECAST THUS CALLS FOR GRADUAL
STRENGTHENING TO A TROPICAL STORM IN 12 HR AND A HURRICANE IN 72-96
HR IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS MODELS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 15/1500Z 11.5N 34.0W 30 KT
12HR VT 16/0000Z 11.3N 36.1W 35 KT
24HR VT 16/1200Z 11.3N 38.9W 40 KT
36HR VT 17/0000Z 11.8N 41.7W 45 KT
48HR VT 17/1200Z 12.4N 44.4W 50 KT
72HR VT 18/1200Z 14.0N 50.5W 60 KT
96HR VT 19/1200Z 16.5N 57.0W 75 KT
120HR VT 20/1200Z 19.0N 63.0W 90 KT

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

[trogdor]

Now tropical storm Bill

TROPICAL STORM BILL DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032009
500 PM AST SAT AUG 15 2009

SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE DEPRESSION IN THE FAR EASTERN
ATLANTIC HAS CONTINUED TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED. THE CYCLONE IS
LARGE AND HAS NUMEROUS CYCLONICALLY-CURVED CONVECTIVE BANDS WITH
THE OUTFLOW PRIMARILY ON THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE. DVORAK T-NUMBERS
HAVE INCREASED AND SUPPORT UPGRADING THE SYSTEM TO TROPICAL STORM
STATUS WITH AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35 KNOTS. BILL IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN OVER WARM WATERS AND EMBEDDED WITHIN LIGHT SHEAR THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. STRENGTHENING IS INDICATED AND BILL IS EXPECTED TO
BECOME A HURRICANE IN 3 TO 4 DAYS. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH THE
UPWARD INTENSITY TREND INDICATED BY THE GUIDANCE.

BILL IS IN THE DEEP TROPICS AND IS WELL-EMBEDDED WITHIN THE EASTERLY
TRADE WINDS. THE CYCLONE IS MOVING JUST SOUTH OF DUE WEST OR 265
DEGREES AT 14 KNOTS. IN GENERAL...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE
STEERING CURRENTS IS ANTICIPATED AND BILL SHOULD BEGIN TO TURN A
LITTLE MORE TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IN A DAY OR SO...WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN FORWARD
SPEED. THERE HAS NOT BEEN A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE GUIDANCE...AND
THE BULK OF THE MODELS HAS BILL AS A HURRICANE JUST NORTH AND VERY
NEAR THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS AND SO DOES THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 15/2100Z 11.3N 35.2W 35 KT
12HR VT 16/0600Z 11.2N 37.2W 35 KT
24HR VT 16/1800Z 11.5N 40.0W 45 KT
36HR VT 17/0600Z 12.0N 43.0W 50 KT
48HR VT 17/1800Z 13.0N 46.0W 55 KT
72HR VT 18/1800Z 14.5N 52.0W 60 KT
96HR VT 19/1800Z 17.0N 58.0W 75 KT
120HR VT 20/1800Z 19.5N 63.5W 90 KT

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

[trogdor]

Cat 1 hurricane now and continuing to strengthen

HURRICANE BILL DISCUSSION NUMBER 8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032009
500 AM AST MON AUG 17 2009

INFRARED SATELLITE PICTURES REVEAL AN IMPRESSIVE MASS OF DEEP
CONVECTION...WITH A LARGE AREA OF -70C AND EVEN -80C CLOUD
TOPS WITHIN A WELL-ORGANIZED CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST. IN
ADDITION...SEVERAL WELL-DEFINED BANDS ARE NOTED OUTSIDE OF THE
CENTRAL CONVECTIVE CORE. A 0142 UTC TRMM PASS INDICATED A DISTINCT
CONVECTIVE RING AROUND THE CENTER...ALSO SUGGESTIVE OF INCREASED
ORGANIZATION. DVORAK T-NUMBERS ARE AT 4.0 FROM TAFB AND SAB...ALONG
WITH CURRENT TRENDS...SUPPORT INCREASING THE INITIAL INTENSITY TO
65 KT. THIS MAKES BILL THE FIRST HURRICANE OF THE 2009 ATLANTIC
HURRICANE SEASON.

RECENT SATELLITE CENTER FIXES ARE LESS DOUBTFUL THAN EARLIER AND
YIELD A RATHER RAPID INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE OF 285/19. GLOBAL
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK FOR
THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...AS BILL IS STEERED BY A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE
NORTHEAST OF THE CYCLONE. HOWEVER...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A
WEAKNESS CURRENTLY ALONG 50W...WHICH IS FORECAST TO BEGIN ERODING A
PORTION OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC OVER THE
NEXT 48 HOURS. AS THE BREAK IN THE RIDGE BECOMES MORE
SUBSTANTIAL...A MAJORITY OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE TURNS BILL ON A MORE
NORTHWESTWARD COURSE LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE ONE EXCEPTION
IS THE UKMET WHICH INSISTS ON A MORE SOUTHERN SOLUTION. THE
OFFICIAL TRACK IS INITIALLY NUDGED SLIGHTLY SOUTHWARD IN THE
SHORT-TERM TO ACCOUNT FOR A MORE CERTAIN INITIAL POSITION...BUT
LITTLE CHANGE WAS MADE TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK THEREAFTER.

BILL IS EXPECTED TO TRACK THROUGH AN ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY
LOW SHEAR AND SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES JUST UNDER 27C THROUGH 24
HOURS. SIMILAR TO BEFORE...THE GFDL/HWRF INDICATE A NEARLY FLAT
RATE OF INTENSIFICATION FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...PERHAPS
REFLECTING MARGINALLY WARM WATERS. IN SPITE OF THIS...THE SHIPS
RAPID INTENSIFICATION INDEX HAS CONTINUED FORECASTING A RATHER HIGH
PROBABILITY OF A 30 KT INTENSITY INCREASE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
THEREAFTER...ALL INTENSITY GUIDANCE INDICATES A CONDUCIVE
ENVIRONMENT FOR STRENGTHENING...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW BILL TO BECOME A
MAJOR HURRICANE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS SUIT...CLOSEST TO
THE SHIPS MODEL GUIDANCE. TOWARD THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD...SEVERAL OF THE RELIABLE GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST INCREASING
WESTERLY SHEAR AS BILL IS SEPARATED FROM ITS FAVORABLE...UPPER-
LEVEL SUPPORT. CONSEQUENTLY...THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST
INDICATES MINOR WEAKENING NEAR THE END OF THE PERIOD.

IT APPEARS AS IF THE CENTER OF BILL WILL PASS VERY CLOSE TO NOAA
BUOY 41041 LATER THIS MORNING.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 17/0900Z 13.8N 44.0W 65 KT
12HR VT 17/1800Z 14.4N 46.4W 75 KT
24HR VT 18/0600Z 15.1N 49.0W 85 KT
36HR VT 18/1800Z 16.0N 51.6W 95 KT
48HR VT 19/0600Z 17.3N 54.0W 105 KT
72HR VT 20/0600Z 20.5N 59.0W 110 KT
96HR VT 21/0600Z 25.0N 63.5W 105 KT
120HR VT 22/0600Z 30.1N 66.5W 100 KT

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN

[Iancar29]

ITs now SAFFIR-SIMPSON CATEGORY 2........looks to be still gaining strength.

What the chances tat we ll get the tail of this if it keeps on veering to the east.....?


ANYONE THINKIN TAT?

We havent gotten a descent tail of a hurricane in some time.

[maquiladora]

If Bill does what he's forecast to do, then he'll recurve out to sea before getting close to the US mainland and head towards Europe. Of course the colder waters won't keep the system at anywhere near the strength he'll have been before that but we could be in for some wet/windy weather. It's a long way off though. Depends on how fast he speeds back over the Atlantic.

[Iancar29]

Ye i know its a good bit off to tell but ye ...... as u said it looks like it could head our way .....

[maquiladora]

[Iancar29]

Awh Cool tnks!

Tats exactly wat i was lookin for!......

[trogdor]

Cat 4 now and still strengthening..

HURRICANE BILL DISCUSSION NUMBER 16
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032009
500 AM AST WED AUG 19 2009

BILL HAS A WELL-DEFINED 25-30 N MI WIDE EYE WITH EYEWALL CLOUD TOPS
TO NEAR -80C. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB WERE
115 KT AT 06Z...AND THE CURRENT SATELLITE SIGNATURE SUGGESTS A
SLIGHTLY STRONGER SYSTEM. BASED ON THE SATELLITE ESTIMATES...THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 115 KT. A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER
AIRCRAFT IS CURRENTLY ENROUTE TO INVESTIGATE BILL.

THE MOTION IS WOBBLING BETWEEN 295-300 DEGREES AT 14 KT. BILL IS ON
THE SOUTHWEST SIDE OF THE ATLANTIC SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOWS A MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW NEAR 32N60W AND A MID/UPPER-
LEVEL TROUGH N OF 30N BETWEEN 69W-75W. THESE FEATURES ARE
CURRENTLY CREATING A WEAKNESS IN THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE TRACK GUIDANCE MODELS FORECAST BILL TO
GRADUALLY TURN NORTHWESTWARD TOWARDS THIS WEAKNESS DURING THE NEXT
48-72 HR...WITH THE ECMWF SHOWING THE EARLIEST TURN AND THE
NOGAPS/UKMET SHOWING THE LATEST TURN. AFTER THAT...A LARGE
DEEP-LAYER TROUGH MOVING INTO THE EASTERN UNITED STATES SHOULD
CAUSE BILL TO RECURVE NORTHWARD AND NORTHEASTWARD. THERE IS A
LARGE MODEL SPREAD IN BOTH DIRECTION AND SPEED AFTER 72 HR...WITH
THE NOGAPS ON ONE SIDE BRINGING BILL NEAR NEW ENGLAND AND THE
CORRECTED CONSENSUS MODELS ON THE OTHER SIDE CALLING FOR A SHARP
TURN OUT TO SEA. OVERALL...THE ENVELOPE OF MODEL GUIDANCE HAS
SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE WEST...SO THE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL DO
LIKEWISE. THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS NEAR THE MODEL CONSENSUS AND
THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.

BILL HAS STRENGTHENED IN SPITE OF BEING IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF
10-15 KT OF SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE LARGE-SCALE
MODELS FORECAST THIS SHEAR SHOULD DECREASE AFTER 12 HR...SO
ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST. BY 48-72 HR...BILL SHOULD
INTERACT WITH THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY JUST OFF THE NORTH
CAROLINA COAST. THIS IS LIKELY TO CAUSE ANOTHER ROUND OF SHEAR...SO
THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR SLOW WEAKENING DURING THAT TIME.
AFTER 72 HR...BILL SHOULD BECOME EMBEDDED IN THE WESTERLIES AS IT
MOVES OVER COLDER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES...AND A FASTER WEAKENING
IS EXPECTED. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLES...
WHICH ARE VERY DIFFICULT TO ANTICIPATE...MAY PRODUCE SOME
FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY SUPERIMPOSED ON THE GENERAL TREND OF THE
INTENSITY FORECAST.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 19/0900Z 18.0N 54.9W 115 KT
12HR VT 19/1800Z 19.0N 56.8W 120 KT
24HR VT 20/0600Z 20.6N 59.4W 125 KT
36HR VT 20/1800Z 22.5N 62.0W 125 KT
48HR VT 21/0600Z 24.4N 64.4W 120 KT
72HR VT 22/0600Z 29.5N 68.0W 115 KT
96HR VT 23/0600Z 36.0N 68.5W 100 KT
120HR VT 24/0600Z 44.0N 62.0W 80 KT

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

[Sponge Bob]

It tracks a bit nearer on every iteration but the balance of forecasts still has it nearer Iceland for now .

Originally Posted by maquiladora

[Iancar29]

If Bill comes anywhere near Ireland and has still a bit of strength left in it

IM GOIN ON A ROAD TRIP TO THE WEST!!!! hA! WOOOOOO!

Last big tail was 2002 from wat i can remember!

[Grimes]

Ill be out West aswel

[maquiladora]

Here's how the remains of Bill could look next Wednesday based on the latest GFS model run.

[jumpguy]

What are the chances of Bill coming to Ireland and how localised is it? Would it effect a county or most of the West coast?

[TheInquisitor]

Check out www.stormpulse.com and click on show forcast models. About half now headin close to ireland now. We would get a dumping of rain if it hit us some bad winds but thats all nothing crazy