[jmayo]

Originally Posted by cooperla

If I lose my job then I look for a new one. I know this is a simply answer but it is the only answer in my opinion. Even in the most trying of times there are jobs available. It will likely take longer to find a new job than a couple years ago and the pay may be less but there's still jobs to be had.

... I don't think I'm overly optimistic though. I recognise the situation we're in and have taken steps to try and make sure I'm as prepared as I can be by sorting out my own financial situation. The one thing I'm not prepared to do is to worry myself to death or send myself into depression worrying about what may or may not happen - it's not the nature of the beast.

The main point I was trying to get across in my original post was that I don't trust anything so called experts say about our economy as most get it wrong. Everyone seemed to be too optimistic during the boom and now everyone seems too negative imo.

Not wishing to rain on your parade but forget about how you could get jobs over the last 10-15 years.
May I ask when you left school or college ?

Sadly we are probably going to have unemployment rates back to bad old days of the 80s.
Except this time there will probably not be any Dells, Microsofts, Intels coming over the horizon to kick start our economy and the Celtic Tiger.
Our competitiveness is shot to sh**.
We have lost a huge amount of old indigenous industry, the likes of Navan carpets, Fruit of the Loom in Donegal, Dubarry shoes, Irish Sugar, etc etc.

IMHO this is going to be much worse than the 80s.
In the 80s we had no expectations, most of us assumed we would have to emigrate, if we weren't lucky enough to get job in public sector or one of the few steady employers in private sector, some of which are no more.

There was not huge personal debt in the 80s, people with jobs bought the odd new car, cheap ones or ones with good resale value at that, not many BMWs or Alfas around in those days.
The only loans people had were mortgages with upto 17% interest rates, no 40 year 100% jobies back then, and maybe car loans.

In the 80s we hadn't experienced huge growth and wealth, we were not used to things.
As they say "You don't miss what you never had".
A lot of people are in for a hell of shock in this country and I wonder if they are really prepared for the days when foreign holidays, credit cards, mobiles, cable, broadband are considered expensive luxuries.

EDIT:
ZYX, FFS stop comparing us to Uk, Finland, Japan or some other country that had a property bubble. As bulls always said we are different and in the severity of this bust we definetly are.
We are much worse off, we were much more dependent on property (as can be seen form buget deficits), the world's economic outlook is far worse than some of the times other countries were coming out of their bubbles and we have shag all indigenous industry or capital to keep us going and kick start a revival.
Added to that we are led by a bunch of muppets.

[ZYX]

Originally Posted by jmayo

EDIT:
ZYX, FFS stop comparing us to Uk, Finland, Japan or some other country that had a property bubble. As bulls always said we are different and in the severity of this bust we definetly are.
We are much worse off, we were much more dependent on property (as can be seen form buget deficits), the world's economic outlook is far worse than some of the times other countries were coming out of their bubbles and we have shag all indigenous industry or capital to keep us going and kick start a revival.
Added to that we are led by a bunch of muppets.

In UK prices fell in real terms 75% from 1989 to 1995. Considering this thread is about prices in Ireland falling 80% I think the comparison is fair. As I said at the start it depends how long recession goes on for.

[crocro]

Originally Posted by cooperla

I heard a report on the radio of a report suggesting a 10% drop this year. It's hard to know who to believe but I cannot believe 80%.

He predicts a drop of 80% in the real price of houses so you have to take inflation into account. House prices have been dropping around 10% a year for the past 2 and 1/2 years. Meanwhile inflation has been 4-5% a year during that period. SO we have already seen a 40% real drop since peak. If it continues at the same rate for the next 2 1/2 years then we'll see another 40% off the real price. So it's not impossible.

[jmayo]

Originally Posted by ZYX

In UK prices fell in real terms 75% from 1989 to 1995. Considering this thread is about prices in Ireland falling 80% I think the comparison is fair. As I said at the start it depends how long recession goes on for.

The fall might be fair to compare, but in your original post below you also worked in how prices went back up which I find the misleading thing.
If you think our prices in 8 years will be back to the rediculous levels they are were at the peak then I would bet you would be wrong.
What I am arguing is that it is no use comparing us to anyone else because our circumstances are different, if anything they are far far worse.
Some others on other threads have compared us to Finland and even Japan.

Fair enough you are an opitmist, but do not base your opitmism on the fact that some countries that had busts bounced back quickly, becuase those same countries had a lot more going for them.
You did rightly point out that a lot will depend on long the recession lasts, particuarly how long the US is in recession.

Originally Posted by ZYX

All depends how long the recession lasts. If you compare us to the UK over last 30 years.
http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/gra...ouse-price.php

You can see in 1979 house prices fell 20% then rose almost 100% over next 8 years, then fell 40% and rose 150% over next 10 years. Now they are falling again. It is the nature of the beast. I was in UK during 80s crash. At one stage, where I was in North of England, many houses were cheaper than a second hand car I owned. Everyone said houses would never rise again, they did.

[ZYX]

Originally Posted by jmayo

The fall might be fair to compare, but in your original post below you also worked in how prices went back up which I find the misleading thing.
If you think our prices in 8 years will be back to the rediculous levels they are were at the peak then I would bet you would be wrong.
.

I never said house prices would be back to 1996 levels in 8 years. I was simply illustrating how prices go up and down. I was replying to Gurramok who said
"I strongly believe that the 2006 price you paid may never be seen again in our lifetime"
If you estimate that the average person on this site will live another 50 years (average person under 35 years old), then I believe that not only will prices have reached 2006 levels in that time, they will have fallen again, risen again, fallen again and probably have risen again over that time. As I said it is the nature of the beast.

[cooperla]

Originally Posted by jmayo

Not wishing to rain on your parade but forget about how you could get jobs over the last 10-15 years.
May I ask when you left school or college ?

I wasn't born in Ireland. I came from a country in which the region I lived in had an unemployment rate of between 17-20% for more than a decade. Even at such a high rate, those people who wanted full time jobs found them. I fully comprehend what is required in looking for a job in a country with a high unemployment level.

I know what it's like to send out dozens and dozens of CVs and attend 10-20 interviews over a couple months before getting a job.

BTW I finished college in 1999 and took a job in Ireland a year later so I could see Europe. Was only meant to be here for a year but thinks change and I've settled here (that's for a different thread though).

[gurramok]

Originally Posted by ZYX

I never said house prices would be back to 1996 levels in 8 years. I was simply illustrating how prices go up and down. I was replying to Gurramok who said
"I strongly believe that the 2006 price you paid may never be seen again in our lifetime"
If you estimate that the average person on this site will live another 50 years (average person under 35 years old), then I believe that not only will prices have reached 2006 levels in that time, they will have fallen again, risen again, fallen again and probably have risen again over that time. As I said it is the nature of the beast.

I think i was not thinking of another 50 years, i was coming from a personal viewpoint before retirement so make that 30 years

The UK's prices caught up on the bounce back because they had real industry and lowish unemployment rates < 10%. Finland was similar.
If Irish unemployment hovers around 13-20% for the next 30 years depending on who you believe, then that 2006 price would be in the history books for the schoolkids to study about.

However, if the economy bounces back on real industry generating wealth, not based on easy credit, with a healthy demographic and with low unemployment even at a healthy 6%, then of course i reckon that 2006 price will come back sooner.

Too many factors weigh against the optimist though, national income needs to decline alot to get competitive again, just a pity the govt wrecked us for a generation.

[ravendude]

Originally Posted by crocro

He predicts a drop of 80% in the real price of houses so you have to take inflation into account. House prices have been dropping around 10% a year for the past 2 and 1/2 years. Meanwhile inflation has been 4-5% a year during that period. SO we have already seen a 40% real drop since peak. If it continues at the same rate for the next 2 1/2 years then we'll see another 40% off the real price. So it's not impossible.

...bear in mind we're entering a phase of low inflation and probably deflation. While the above is true, inflations in the coming years will not have as much impact

[Fighting Irish]

good, its about time

lol @ people buying farty houses for 300K

[jmayo]

Originally Posted by cooperla

I wasn't born in Ireland. I came from a country in which the region I lived in had an unemployment rate of between 17-20% for more than a decade. Even at such a high rate, those people who wanted full time jobs found them. I fully comprehend what is required in looking for a job in a country with a high unemployment level.

I know what it's like to send out dozens and dozens of CVs and attend 10-20 interviews over a couple months before getting a job.

BTW I finished college in 1999 and took a job in Ireland a year later so I could see Europe. Was only meant to be here for a year but thinks change and I've settled here (that's for a different thread though).

A belated welcome to Ireland
Unlike some others, especially on some other threads around here, I gladly welcome foreigners. Our gene pool was too damm limited.

The problem was and sadly may be again that there just aren't any jobs out there and you might have to send out hundreds of cvs and might get the odd interview. Sadly with Ireland also it is not what you know but who you know
The level of emigration in parts of this country was huge.
Out of some classes leaving secondary schools, only about 5-10% managed to stay around. What was really sad about the late 70s and 80s was it wasn't just uneducated that were leaving, it was our educated as well.

Originally Posted by ZYX

I never said house prices would be back to 1996 levels in 8 years. I was simply illustrating how prices go up and down. I was replying to Gurramok who said
"I strongly believe that the 2006 price you paid may never be seen again in our lifetime"
If you estimate that the average person on this site will live another 50 years (average person under 35 years old), then I believe that not only will prices have reached 2006 levels in that time, they will have fallen again, risen again, fallen again and probably have risen again over that time. As I said it is the nature of the beast.

ZYX, nobody is arguing that eventually prices will work their way back as value of money changes, but most people are talking about 50 years and even then when you work out for inflation relative values will not be the same.

You keep citing examples of how UK and Finland bounced back quickly and then in case of UK cycled again.
You are comparing apples with oranges when you compare Ireland to anywhere else. These countries had more established economies, native industrial and capital bases, and the world economy was not in such bad shape.
All bulls always said ireland bubble would be different.
Well the bubble wasn't, but the bust is definetly different in that it has nearly taken the entire economy with it.

[x in the city]

Are some of the 'deadly' sins

our estate agents, landlords, property developers etc got far too greedy and for a small nation of our size we were spending far beyond our means and house prices were ridiculous, now that the wheel of good fortune has spun a full 360 degrees we now see the mess we are in.

Today my friend said house prices in Ballybunion Co Kerry were as expensive as San Francisco a few years ago and he was not at all surprised to see the mess we are in.

Greed.....!