"Surely on the basis of his last performance, Mir would have the advantage standing."
Not necessarily, Brock knocked down Mir in their first fight, as well as flooring Herring and Couture in their bouts. He has a huge reach advantage over Mir, as well as that 1 punch knockout power. Mir might be more technically sound at this point in his career, but Brock is showing huge improvements fight to fight.
I don’t think Mir will necessarily have the advantage on the ground either. Brock will have had over a year to work on his submission defense by the time they meet. Also with the evolution off mma, more and more wrestlers in the higher weight classes are simply negating submissions with their top control, strength and gnp. Ufc 92 didn’t have one submission on the card and Rashad Evans, the newly crowned LHW Champ has never even attempted a submission in his ufc career.
Its still a difficult prospect to pick a winner between these two though.. You have to wonder how much of Mir’s great looking performance the other night was down to a punch-drunk and past his prime Nog and also whether Brock has the sub defense, experience, heart and chin to stay champion.
We'll find out soon enough I suppose..
Another thing is Lesnar looked really ready to gas in the Couture fight I remember he was holding Couture against the cage and he looked like he was about to pass out I remember the commentaters kept mentioning how hard it is for Lesnar to be carrying such weight around the ring meanwhile Mir who was renowned for gassing seemed to not even break a sweat the entire fight against Nog