Questions for immigration supporters

[Macmorris]

I was going to write a thread on why I believe mass immigration will be bad for Ireland. If I’m being honest though, I haven’t really considered the issue from the other point of view and so I thought it would be worth hearing how immigration supporters would answer some questions I have on the subject.

These questions then are for those people who don’t seem to share the concerns that many people have in this country regarding immigration.

• Would you agree that mass immigration will have huge long-term consequences for Ireland (cultural, social, political) and that as such, there is far more at stake in the immigration debate than short-term economic gain?
  
  
• Would you agree that the current rate of immigration into Ireland is excessive, at least in comparison with other European countries?
  
  
• If you don't think it's high, how high do you think it can get before it might be time to start imposing restrictions? How many more immigrants does Ireland need, twice as many, three times as many, ten times as many?
  
  
• Considering that the Irish people were never asked if we wanted to live in a multicultural country, and considering that Ireland seems to be the only country in Europe where immigration is ignored by all the major parties, do you think it might be worth having a referendum or national poll on the issue of immigration?
  
  
• If a poll was to be carried out, how do you think the people would vote? Do you think they would vote to continue on with the current immigration numbers or do you think they would vote to impose tougher restrictions on the numbers coming here?
  
  
• Romania and Bulgaria are set to join the EU in just a few days from now. Although restrictions will be in place (at least in the short term) do you agree with people who say that we could expect another massive influx of people, similar to what happened when the other Eastern European countries joined the EU a few years ago, if we do open our borders to immigrants from these countries? Or do you believe such predictions to be ‘scare-mongering’, in the same way that people who predicted the same thing about the last round of accession were ‘scare-mongering’?
  
  
• The president of Dublin City University, Professor Ferdinand von Prondzynski, has predicted that if current trends continue, the indigenous Irish people could be a minority in their own country by the year 2050 (see here) The latest census figures showed a non-national figure of just under 10%, which would be around 400,000 people. The official rate (probably not including the thousands of illegals) of immigration for the last year was 85,000 people. If this rate of immigration continues for another five years it would mean an extra 400,000 being added to the population, which would bring the non-national figure up to just under 20% of the population. With this in mind, do you think it might be worth taking the professor’s prediction seriously? If not, why not?
  
  
• Suppose hypothetically that there might be some truth to the professor’s predictions, would you personally have any problems with that i.e. with Irish people becoming an ethnic minority in their own country? If not, would you understand why many people in this country might have a problem with it?

I'm not trying to be smart in asking loaded or rhetorical questions. I would genuinely like to hear people's answers to these questions as I think these get to the heart of the immigration problem as I see it.

[Akrasia]

Originally Posted by Macmorris

I was going to write a thread on why I believe mass immigration will be bad for Ireland. If I’m being honest though, I haven’t really considered the issue from the other point of view and so I thought it would be worth hearing how immigration supporters would answer some questions I have on the subject.

These questions then are for those people who don’t seem to share the concerns that many people have in this country regarding immigration.

• Would you agree that mass immigration will have huge long-term consequences for Ireland (cultural, social, political) and that as such, there is far more at stake in the immigration debate than short-term economic gain?
  

• Everything we do has long term cultural consequences, including our economic 'success' of recent times. Do you think we should be clinging on to Ireland's cultural identity? If so, which cultural identity do you want to preserve?, the repressed catholic theocracy of the 1950s?
  Immigration will impact on our culture, but why does that have to be a bad thing? Do you eat Indian or Chinese food?
  
  

  Would you agree that the current rate of immigration into Ireland is excessive, at least in comparison with other European countries?

  The vast majority of immigration into Ireland is economic migration and a lot of that is short term to fuel our construction bubble. They won't stay when the jobs go, they are not a threat to us. We accept very few refugees, less than our fair share if you ask me.
  
  

  If you don't think it's high, how high do you think it can get before it might be time to start imposing restrictions? How many more immigrants does Ireland need, twice as many, three times as many, ten times as many?

  If you're talking about immigrants to keep our economy going, I think we have about as many as we need now (though our health sector is heavily reliant on imported workers). Immigrants will only come to Ireland for as long as there is work available to them. There is a caveat though, we need to be very tough on traffickers and those who will exploit people coming into the country.
  
  

  Considering that the Irish people were never asked if we wanted to live in a multicultural country, and considering that Ireland seems to be the only country in Europe where immigration is ignored by all the major parties, do you think it might be worth having a referendum or national poll on the issue of immigration?

  Do you really think such a debate would be an honest one? There are certain newspapers and political groups who would lie and stir up hatred against immigrants, It happens everywhere this debate happens.
  "Immigrants are all criminals" "Immigrants are all infected with AIDS" "Refugees get free cars and free mobile phones and free car insurance"
  You can bet that for the entire duration of the campaign, every time a foreigner is charged with driving without insurance or is involved in any kind of crime, that it will be front page news in certain papers and they will make absolutely sure that the 'non national' status of the accused is highlighted.
  
  

  If a poll was to be carried out, how do you think the people would vote? Do you think they would vote to continue on with the current immigration numbers or do you think they would vote to impose tougher restrictions on the numbers coming here?

  As with most polls, the results would depend on how the question is framed.
  
  

  Romania and Bulgaria are set to join the EU in just a few days from now. Although restrictions will be in place (at least in the short term) do you agree with people who say that we could expect another massive influx of people, similar to what happened when the other Eastern European countries joined the EU a few years ago, if we do open our borders to immigrants from these countries? Or do you believe such predictions to be ‘scare-mongering’, in the same way that people who predicted the same thing about the last round of accession were ‘scare-mongering’?

  if every other european country keeps their borders closed and we allow them to come in, then of course there will be an influx If all countries open their borders than Ireland's share will be small. But if every country keeps their borders closed, then how is that in any way fair to the new accession countries? They are second class citizens, they will have to put up with all of the negative aspects of E.U. membership with very few of the benefits. You should ask your MEPs why they voted to allow accession if they weren't prepared to allow free movement of people.
  
  

  The president of Dublin City University, Professor Ferdinand von Prondzynski,

  He sounds a lot like an immigrant to me, ironic isn't it.

  has predicted that if current trends continue, the indigenous Irish people could be a minority in their own country by the year 2050 (see here) The latest census figures showed a non-national figure of just under 10%, which would be around 400,000 people. The official rate (probably not including the thousands of illegals) of immigration for the last year was 85,000 people. If this rate of immigration continues for another five years it would mean an extra 400,000 being added to the population, which would bring the non-national figure up to just under 20% of the population. With this in mind, do you think it might be worth taking the professor’s prediction seriously? If not, why not?

  those figures are extremely flawed. it only counts the numbers of people coming in and ignores the immigrants who return home. It ignores the natural increase in the Irish population and the fact that many immigrants included in his figure are of Irish ethnicity. It also assumes that the Irish construction bubble will last for another 5 years. There is no chance in hell that we will build 90,000 houses a year right up until 2012. but if we did, we would need those 400,000 extra immigrants just to live in the new houses to prevent a catastrophic collapse in the housing market.
  
  
  

  Suppose hypothetically that there might be some truth to the professor’s predictions, would you personally have any problems with that i.e. with Irish people becoming an ethnic minority in their own country? If not, would you understand why many people in this country might have a problem with it?

Of course people would feel threatened if they were a minority in their own home and they would have a very good reason, but it is precisely these kinds of unfounded 'hypothetical' situations that turn the 'debate on immigration' into a hysterical exercise in fear mongering and in some cases, incitement of hatred

[The Corinthian]

Originally Posted by Macmorris

Would you agree that mass immigration will have huge long-term consequences for Ireland (cultural, social, political) and that as such, there is far more at stake in the immigration debate than short-term economic gain?

There’s no such thing as short-term economic gain. Even if one considers a short-term boom fuelled by cheap labour from abroad, the effects on the long-term economy, structurally and demographically will fundamentally reshape the Irish economy to a more aggressive beast than the sluggish pseudo-Socialist slug that was there before.

Certainly there will be social, cultural and political consequences, but they must be weighed against the above long-term economic effects. Additionally Ireland was (is) in serious need to evolve socially, culturally and politically – I think there are few who realistically want to return to the priest-ridden, provincial backwater that was Ireland prior to the mid-nineties.

Would you agree that the current rate of immigration into Ireland is excessive, at least in comparison with other European countries?

Actually no. In fact the same rate of immigration would actually be excessive for even other, even larger, European countries because their economies cannot currently absorb the additional labour force. When compared with most other European nations we are actually better equipped to absorb immigration.

If you don't think it's high, how high do you think it can get before it might be time to start imposing restrictions? How many more immigrants does Ireland need, twice as many, three times as many, ten times as many?

As many of what? Unfortunately your question so generalised as to be meaningless outside of a xenophobic reaction. One cannot equate a well-educated, skilled individual from a developed European country to, say, an unskilled one from a developing nation. There is and will likely to continue to be economic demand for the former far longer than the latter, however in making a sweeping categorisation all immigrants you do nothing other than perpetuate a blanket fear of ‘foreigners’.

Considering that the Irish people were never asked if we wanted to live in a multicultural country, and considering that Ireland seems to be the only country in Europe where immigration is ignored by all the major parties, do you think it might be worth having a referendum or national poll on the issue of immigration?

Seriously, cry me a river. The reason that there is little debate is because there is little interest politically to debate it – politicians tend not to ignore the electorate when there is real pressure for change. Indeed, that those few politicians that do campaign on the issue are practically without exception unsuccessfully and often considered little more that nutcases underlines this point.

Of course the question of ‘multiculturalism’ is a separate one as it really depends on how this is handled socially. I do believe that it can actually be a negative influence if immigrant communities are not absorbed correctly. No one wants the multiculturalism that exists in countries such as France and Britain, which is often little more than ghettoization.

If a poll was to be carried out, how do you think the people would vote? Do you think they would vote to continue on with the current immigration numbers or do you think they would vote to impose tougher restrictions on the numbers coming here?

Depends on the poll and how it was presented. If a poll were put forward asking to severely restrict or stop all immigration it would probably fail, if one were put forward to restrict certain categories of immigrant then it might pass.

As I’ve already pointed out, you have simply lumped all immigrants into the one category and seem more concerned about some abstract form of ‘cultural integrity’ than anything else. Such a view remains a minority one and as such, if we had a poll based upon that premise it would fail.

Romania and Bulgaria are set to join the EU in just a few days from now. Although restrictions will be in place (at least in the short term) do you agree with people who say that we could expect another massive influx of people, similar to what happened when the other Eastern European countries joined the EU a few years ago, if we do open our borders to immigrants from these countries? Or do you believe such predictions to be ‘scare-mongering’, in the same way that people who predicted the same thing about the last round of accession were ‘scare-mongering’?

Romania and Bulgaria were perhaps admitted a little too soon in the EU as both still suffer from major corruption, social and economic problems, IMHO. As such it is unfair to equate them with more developed, stable nations such as the Czech republic or even Poland. As such I would think it prudent to apply restrictions there.

The president of Dublin City University, Professor Ferdinand von Prondzynski, has predicted that if current trends continue, the indigenous Irish people could be a minority in their own country by the year 2050 (see here) The latest census figures showed a non-national figure of just under 10%, which would be around 400,000 people. The official rate (probably not including the thousands of illegals) of immigration for the last year was 85,000 people. If this rate of immigration continues for another five years it would mean an extra 400,000 being added to the population, which would bring the non-national figure up to just under 20% of the population. With this in mind, do you think it might be worth taking the professor’s prediction seriously? If not, why not?

Not really. Because it’s a prediction based on present trends, assuming static social and political conditions, extrapolated over forty years into the future. That’s not to say his research should be ignored either, but only a fool would take it too seriously.

Suppose hypothetically that there might be some truth to the professor’s predictions, would you personally have any problems with that i.e. with Irish people becoming an ethnic minority in their own country? If not, would you understand why many people in this country might have a problem with it?

Ask me closer to 2050. Until then your question sounds like little more than xenophobic scaremongering.

[Conor74]

Originally Posted by Macmorris

Would you agree that mass immigration will have huge long-term consequences for Ireland (cultural, social, political)

Yes. It will have significant beneficial consequences for Ireland. At least our children will have a chance to see and meet people who are not necessarily white and Catholic. Plus the end of immigration will no doubt spell the end of the boom - if Poles alone were to leave there would be something like 50k - 100k empty houses lying around the place.

Originally Posted by Macmorris

Would you agree that the current rate of immigration into Ireland is excessive, at least in comparison with other European countries?

Not at all. As long as the vast majority of them are finding employment, I don't see how it can be excessive.

Originally Posted by Macmorris

If you don't think it's high, how high do you think it can get before it might be time to start imposing restrictions? How many more immigrants does Ireland need, twice as many, three times as many, ten times as many?

As many as the employment market dictates. As soon as it becomes apparent that the workforce becomes saturated, it might be time to rethink. Not because I believe all immigrants should work, and certainly those who are here for reasons such as a fear of persecution have other concerns than contributing to the economy. But I believe a downturn in the economy will help foster divisions and bitterness that right wing elements will exploit.

Originally Posted by Macmorris

Considering that the Irish people were never asked if we wanted to live in a multicultural country, and considering that Ireland seems to be the only country in Europe where immigration is ignored by all the major parties, do you think it might be worth having a referendum or national poll on the issue of immigration?

Along what lines? There are plenty of opinion polls on the issue, check any newspaper archive. We have had one constitutional change, what more is necessary - I am not aware of other European countries having referenda on whether they liked non-nationals or not.

Originally Posted by Macmorris

If a poll was to be carried out, how do you think the people would vote? Do you think they would vote to continue on with the current immigration numbers or do you think they would vote to impose tougher restrictions on the numbers coming here?

I have no idea. Did anyone canvas the Americans or the British, say between 1850 and 1980, on whether the Irish should be kept out?

Originally Posted by Macmorris

do you agree with people who say that we could expect another massive influx of people, similar to what happened when the other Eastern European countries joined the EU a few years ago, if we do open our borders to immigrants from these countries? Or do you believe such predictions to be ‘scare-mongering’

Depends on the country. As Bulgaria has a population of 7 million and is experiencing something of a boom, I can't see too many people wanting to trade that for life in Ballymun in the rain. Romania may be different. It wouldn't bother me if we opened our borders. I really don't see the whole country being awash with non-nationals. I remember the dire predictions about Nigerians applying for refugee status 5 years ago - they seem to have disappeared altogether from South Kerry.

Originally Posted by Macmorris

With this in mind, do you think it might be worth taking the professor’s prediction seriously? If not, why not?

It should be taken seriously. We should seriously welcome these people and embrace new cultures and new values rather than focus on any differences.

Originally Posted by Macmorris

Suppose hypothetically that there might be some truth to the professor’s predictions, would you personally have any problems with that i.e. with Irish people becoming an ethnic minority in their own country?

In a country where probably more people eat in MacDonalds than speak Irish every day, I don't see what the huge problem will be. Will it mean Polish acts replacing American hip hop at the top of the charts? Will it mean sandals replacing Nike runners? Aaaaaaaargh...

[Gurgle]

Originally Posted by Macmorris

[*]Would you agree that mass immigration will have huge long-term consequences for Ireland (cultural, social, political) and that as such, there is far more at stake in the immigration debate than short-term economic gain?

Yes, if mass immigration to Ireland becomes a reality we would have to look at why its happening. Won't worry about it for the moment though as it doesn't look likely.

Originally Posted by Macmorris

[*]Would you agree that the current rate of immigration into Ireland is excessive, at least in comparison with other European countries?

Nope, we're still catching up.

Originally Posted by Macmorris

[*]If you don't think it's high, how high do you think it can get before it might be time to start imposing restrictions? How many more immigrants does Ireland need, twice as many, three times as many, ten times as many?

Depends on how the economy goes in the next few years. If it slumps, many immigrants will start moving on to where theres more jobs or going home. If it continues to perform then obviously we will need more immigration. Its great to finally have a first world economic power.

Originally Posted by Macmorris

[*]Considering that the Irish people were never asked if we wanted to live in a multicultural country, and considering that Ireland seems to be the only country in Europe where immigration is ignored by all the major parties, do you think it might be worth having a referendum or national poll on the issue of immigration?

No.
Irish people were never asked if they want their children to go to catholic schools, but no alternative is provided. We should look at major problems like this first. I expect the government to tackle immigration when and if it becomes an issue for any reason other than xenophobia. I would like to see them tackle xenophobia.

Originally Posted by Macmorris

[*]If a poll was to be carried out, how do you think the people would vote? Do you think they would vote to continue on with the current immigration numbers or do you think they would vote to impose tougher restrictions on the numbers coming here?

I think that would depend on where the poll was carried out. In traditionally 'deprived' areas, the natives would object to immigrants as they are the current scapegoats for everything.

Originally Posted by Macmorris

[*]Romania and Bulgaria are set to join the EU in just a few days from now. Although restrictions will be in place (at least in the short term) do you agree with people who say that we could expect another massive influx of people, similar to what happened when the other Eastern European countries joined the EU a few years ago, if we do open our borders to immigrants from these countries? Or do you believe such predictions to be ‘scare-mongering’, in the same way that people who predicted the same thing about the last round of accession were ‘scare-mongering’?

The borders are open. The restrictions will prevent the 'freeloading' constantly screamed about by xenophobes but will allow people to move here and work in our glorious first world economy.

Originally Posted by Macmorris

[*]The president of Dublin City University, Professor Ferdinand von Prondzynski, has predicted that if current trends continue, the indigenous Irish people could be a minority in their own country by the year 2050 (see here) The latest census figures showed a non-national figure of just under 10%, which would be around 400,000 people. The official rate (probably not including the thousands of illegals) of immigration for the last year was 85,000 people. If this rate of immigration continues for another five years it would mean an extra 400,000 being added to the population, which would bring the non-national figure up to just under 20% of the population. With this in mind, do you think it might be worth taking the professor’s prediction seriously? If not, why not?

Not, because that would require the Irish economy to continue its unprecedented growth for the next 44 years. Thats utterly unrealistic by any standards.

Originally Posted by Macmorris

[*]Suppose hypothetically that there might be some truth to the professor’s predictions, would you personally have any problems with that i.e. with Irish people becoming an ethnic minority in their own country? If not, would you understand why many people in this country might have a problem with it?

What makes you Irish?
Your ethnic origins?
Being born and raised here will do me. The average skin tone will change gradually but thats about it.

The key is integration.

If we treat foreigners as unwelcome intruders, they will keep to themselves, raise their children in their own communities and never become truly Irish.

If we treat them as neighbours, their kids will go to school with ours, play football and hurling with them, get drunk with them and grow up as Irish as we have ever been.

[Macmorris]

Originally Posted by Akrasia

If you're talking about immigrants to keep our economy going

I’m not talking just immigrants to keep our economy going. I was hoping this thread would deal with more than just the economy (see my first question). I’m talking about immigrants in general.

I think we have about as many as we need now

And now that we have, in your opinion, as many as we need, do you think that it will suddenly stop. I see no indication that it will come to a stop any time soon regardless of whether or not we ‘need’ them or not.

Do you really think such a debate would be an honest one?

Yes, I do, because we would at least be able to discuss these things openly instead of behind closed doors. At least if we had an open debate the scare-mongers and the bigots would be exposed and we could at least get to the truth.

As with most polls, the results would depend on how the question is framed.

How about this:

‘Do you believe the current rate of immigration into Ireland is too high.’

He sounds a lot like an immigrant to me, ironic isn't it.

But it adds credibility to his claim though. If his surname was O’Donnell I would be more inclined to discount his predictions as the rantings of a bigot.

It only counts the numbers of people coming in and ignores the immigrants who return home.

That’s a fair point. I’m sure a lot of these immigrants coming here probably will return home after a few years. At the same time though I can see a lot them staying here. It’s like the Irish emigrants who left Ireland back in the 1950s. Most of them were only planning to leave for a few years so they could make a few pound and return back home again. For many of them though it didn’t work out like that. Once someone gets settled down in a job, after a few years the next thing is that find themselves with a family and gradually their ogirinal plans are no longer as important.

It ignores the natural increase in the Irish population and the fact that many immigrants included in his figure are of Irish ethnicity.

There’s no way that natural increase could in anyway compare to the increase in population due to immigration. As for immigrants of Irish ethnicity, I’m not sure about that. I'd be interested to see someone provide the breakdown of immigrant numbers to see what percentage of the total is made up ethnic Irish people.

[silverharp]

Originally Posted by Gurgle

The key is integration.

If we treat foreigners as unwelcome intruders, they will keep to themselves, raise their children in their own communities and never become truly Irish.

If we treat them as neighbours, their kids will go to school with ours, play football and hurling with them, get drunk with them and grow up as Irish as we have ever been.

This is true however as a midlle class Dub, the only foreigners I meet socially are Germans, Aussis, Kiwis and South Africans. I have as much chance of "integrating" with a Nigerian as I have with somebody from Ballymun.
I guess my only fear is that in a long recession, it would be up to people in deprived areas to do the integrating, we will see how the Irish character stands up then.

[Macmorris]

Originally Posted by The Corinthian

Certainly there will be social, cultural and political consequences, but they must be weighed against the above long-term economic effects.

I know very little about economics but I honestly don't think the economic benefits of immigration are really worth the price we will have to pay.

Additionally Ireland was (is) in serious need to evolve socially, culturally and politically – I think there are few who realistically want to return to the priest-ridden, provincial backwater that was Ireland prior to the mid-nineties.

If Ireland has evolved over the last few years it's because Irish people wanted it to evolve. I can't see how immigrants played any role in that as they weren't even here.

Actually no. In fact the same rate of immigration would actually be excessive for even other, even larger, European countries because their economies cannot currently absorb the additional labour force. When compared with most other European nations we are actually better equipped to absorb immigration.

What exactly do you mean by the word absorb? Just because the economy can absorb them it doesn't mean the society as a whole can.

For example, cities in northern England successfully absorbed thousands of Asian immigrants into their economies back when they were needed. They haven't done as good a job at absorbing them socially or culturally though.

As many of what? Unfortunately your question so generalised as to be meaningless outside of a xenophobic reaction.

It’s not generalised at all. It’s a very simple question. How many more immigrants do you think Ireland should take? We currently have around 400,000 non-nationals. How high do you think it can get before we say enough is enough. Would you like to see it double to 800,000 or maybe exceed the million mark?

Seriously, cry me a river. The reason that there is little debate is because there is little interest politically to debate it – politicians tend not to ignore the electorate when there is real pressure for change.

I would think a fear of being called racist or ‘xenophobe’ is one the major reasons why politicians refuse to debate the issue publicly. I remember last year when Pat Rabitte said that we might need to consider having a work permit system. I remember reading at least two newspaper articles (one was in the Sunday Independent, can't remember the other one) that referred to his comments as racist.

If a left winger like Pat Rabitte can be called a racist, think what the normal Fianna Failer or Fine Gaelers can expect?

Indeed, that those few politicians that do campaign on the issue

Few politicians? I can think of only two and they're not really politicians.

Name a third?

Depends on the poll and how it was presented. If a poll were put forward asking to severely restrict or stop all immigration it would probably fail

I would have to disagree with you on that. I would gladely bet my annual salary that if you were to stop twenty Irish people on the streets of Dublin or of any town in Ireland and you were to ask them if they think we should have tougher restrictions on immigration that at least half would say that we should.

Even if the moderators on this forum were to make an exception and allow a poll on the issue, I would be more than confident that most people would side with me on this.

As I’ve already pointed out, you have simply lumped all immigrants into the one category and seem more concerned about some abstract form of ‘cultural integrity’ than anything else. Such a view remains a minority one and as such, if we had a poll based upon that premise it would fail.

A minority view? Where’s the evidence that it’s a minority view.

I can remember reading at least two seperate polls that showed at least 70% of the population wanted tougher restrictions. I can't provide the links for it them but I would be happy to have a look if you could first provide the evidence that it's a minority view.

Ask me closer to 2050. Until then your question sounds like little more than xenophobic scaremongering.

Good old xemophobic scaremongering.

Do you not think there's a place in politics for speculation about the future. Is not one of the problems of politics today that it's fixated on short-term issues and that it ignores issues that might have a greater impact on future generations than on our own.

[Conor74]

As someone already mentioned the importance of phrasing any poll correctly, might I suggest that the wording of this thread is a little bizarre. I mean, just because I am not for sending them all back, does that make me an 'immigration supporter'? I would like it if everyone in the world was rich and happy and didn't feel the need to seek a better life, so I don't 'support' immigration or any migration of people. I think it has benefits for the country alright, but that's incidental.

[mike65]

Would you agree that mass immigration will have huge long-term consequences for Ireland (cultural, social, political) and that as such, there is far more at stake in the immigration debate than short-term economic gain?

Yes

Would you agree that the current rate of immigration into Ireland is excessive, at least in comparison with other European countries?

No, it what the market (and its market driven) will stand right now.

If you don't think it's high, how high do you think it can get before it might be time to start imposing restrictions? How many more immigrants does Ireland need, twice as many, three times as many, ten times as many?

Immigration will continue for as long as people elsewhere view Ireland as being worth a punt. Certain restrictions exist for non EU immigrants, you can't stop EU immigrants (including Bulgarian/Romanian ones who can get here as "tourists")

Considering that the Irish people were never asked if we wanted to live in a multicultural country, and considering that Ireland seems to be the only country in Europe where immigration is ignored by all the major parties, do you think it might be worth having a referendum or national poll on the issue of immigration?

We've had that referendum already - several times in one form or another. We can't block EU citizens and thats that.

If a poll was to be carried out, how do you think the people would vote? Do you think they would vote to continue on with the current immigration numbers or do you think they would vote to impose tougher restrictions on the numbers coming here?

As its a lot easier to scare than reasure people on 'dem foreigners' I imagine the great unwashed would seek restrictions but as its not going to happen (see above) it does'nt matter. What does matter and you allude to this, is that the political establishment 'comes clean' with the public and state clearly Ireland will never be a land only fit for pixes ever again.

Romania and Bulgaria are set to join the EU in just a few days from now. Although restrictions will be in place (at least in the short term) do you agree with people who say that we could expect another massive influx of people, similar to what happened when the other Eastern European countries joined the EU a few years ago, if we do open our borders to immigrants from these countries? Or do you believe such predictions to be ‘scare-mongering’, in the same way that people who predicted the same thing about the last round of accession were ‘scare-mongering’?

Everything I've read suggests the new states will flock to Germany and the Club-Med nations, it seems we are too foreign (or damp/cold) for them!.

The president of Dublin City University, Professor Ferdinand von Prondzynski, has predicted that if current trends continue, the indigenous Irish people could be a minority in their own country by the year 2050 (see here) The latest census figures showed a non-national figure of just under 10%, which would be around 400,000 people. The official rate (probably not including the thousands of illegals) of immigration for the last year was 85,000 people. If this rate of immigration continues for another five years it would mean an extra 400,000 being added to the population, which would bring the non-national figure up to just under 20% of the population. With this in mind, do you think it might be worth taking the professor’s prediction seriously? If not, why not?

I hav'nt read the report but it sounds like it makes the mistake of assuming the future will be a carbon copy of the recent past. The economy will slow down here, the economies of the accession states will improve and so fewer will wish to take a chance in a country 2000 miles away.

Suppose hypothetically that there might be some truth to the professor’s predictions, would you personally have any problems with that i.e. with Irish people becoming an ethnic minority in their own country? If not, would you understand why many people in this country might have a problem with it?

I'm not Irish so won't answer this one.

Mike.

[gandalf]

Originally Posted by Macmorris

Would you agree that mass immigration will have huge long-term consequences for Ireland (cultural, social, political) and that as such, there is far more at stake in the immigration debate than short-term economic gain?

Of course there is going to be change with new people coming to this country. Personally I feel its a good thing, I'm sure you think it is too unless you like the backward facing 1950's theocracy that Ireland was.

Originally Posted by Macmorris

Would you agree that the current rate of immigration into Ireland is excessive, at least in comparison with other European countries?

If you looking at things in the short term then yes compared to other countries the rate is excessive but bear in mind we have a lot of catching up to do to have the same numbers of immigrants that other countries have. Also considering most other EU states put restrictions in place on the accession states that expire next year (or 2008) the influx could turn into an exodus when alot of the immigrants decide they want to work closer to their homes.

Originally Posted by Macmorris

If you don't think it's high, how high do you think it can get before it might be time to start imposing restrictions? How many more immigrants does Ireland need, twice as many, three times as many, ten times as many?

TBH the country needs workers, if it can't get enough from its population it needs to bring people in. If you have a problem with that get breeding.

Originally Posted by Macmorris

Considering that the Irish people were never asked if we wanted to live in a multicultural country, and considering that Ireland seems to be the only country in Europe where immigration is ignored by all the major parties, do you think it might be worth having a referendum or national poll on the issue of immigration?

Please point out any other country in the world where such a poll has been carried out.

Originally Posted by Macmorris

If a poll was to be carried out, how do you think the people would vote? Do you think they would vote to continue on with the current immigration numbers or do you think they would vote to impose tougher restrictions on the numbers coming here?

As I said such a poll would be unrealistic and would send out the wrong message to all our partners in the world. Just out of curiosity how would you word this poll question?

Originally Posted by Macmorris

Romania and Bulgaria are set to join the EU in just a few days from now. Although restrictions will be in place (at least in the short term) do you agree with people who say that we could expect another massive influx of people, similar to what happened when the other Eastern European countries joined the EU a few years ago, if we do open our borders to immigrants from these countries? Or do you believe such predictions to be ‘scare-mongering’, in the same way that people who predicted the same thing about the last round of accession were ‘scare-mongering’?

Well there are restrictions in place this time. As long as we remove these restrictions at the same time as the rest of Europe I doubt the influx will be anywhere near the numbers of the initial accession states. There are more attractive countries in Europe for these people to work in.

Originally Posted by Macmorris

The president of Dublin City University, Professor Ferdinand von Prondzynski, has predicted that if current trends continue, the indigenous Irish people could be a minority in their own country by the year 2050 (see here) The latest census figures showed a non-national figure of just under 10%, which would be around 400,000 people. The official rate (probably not including the thousands of illegals) of immigration for the last year was 85,000 people. If this rate of immigration continues for another five years it would mean an extra 400,000 being added to the population, which would bring the non-national figure up to just under 20% of the population. With this in mind, do you think it might be worth taking the professor’s prediction seriously? If not, why not?

TBH the very Irish sounding president of DCU was probably trying to get his name in the media. How many of the 85,000 plan to go home after a few years, 50%, 60%, 70%, 80%, 90% ? From conversations I have had with Poles over here they plan to be here to earn enough money to buy a place of their own back in Poland or to start a business back home.

Originally Posted by Macmorris

Suppose hypothetically that there might be some truth to the professor’s predictions, would you personally have any problems with that i.e. with Irish people becoming an ethnic minority in their own country? If not, would you understand why many people in this country might have a problem with it?

Those figures are scaremongering of the most dramatic variety so I would hold no opinion on them at all as I believe they are bolderdash.

[Macmorris]

Originally Posted by Conor74

might I suggest that the wording of this thread is a little bizarre. I mean, just because I am not for sending them all back, does that make me an 'immigration supporter'?

I agree that I probably should have come up with a more appropriate term than ‘immigration supporter’. I couldn’t think of anything better off the top of my head. I think most people understand what I mean though so I don’t think it will cause much confusion.

Originally Posted by mike65

We've had that referendum already - several times in one form or another.

I don’t what you mean by 'several times' but if you’re referring to the citizenship referendum we had a few years ago, that wasn’t about immigration. It was about tying up a loophole in the constitution that immigrants were abusing to gain residency in this country.

[mike65]

Every EU-related ref has been about opening up borders, some only like that if it means cheap goods and sevices but that was never the actual deal. Some just don't or won't spot that.

Mike.

[Macmorris]

Originally Posted by gandalf

Of course there is going to be change with new people coming to this country. Personally I feel its a good thing, I'm sure you think it is too unless you like the backward facing 1950's theocracy that Ireland was.

No, I don’t want Ireland to be a ‘bacward facing 1950’s theocracy’ but I can’t see what that has to with immigration? Are you suggesting that Ireland was a theocracy up until a few years ago and that the immigrants somehow brought regime change to this country?

Also considering most other EU states put restrictions in place on the accession states that expire next year (or 2008) the influx could turn into an exodus when alot of the immigrants decide they want to work closer to their homes.

I hope you’re right about that, but I can see other EU countries extending those restrictions for another few years, especially after seeing what has happened in Ireland. Poland alone has a population of over 50 million people. There's more than enough to go around.

Please point out any other country in the world where such a poll has been carried out.

I think Switzerland had a referendum on immigration either last year or the year before. Although I think they voted to liberalise their immigration laws, at least they can say that their immigration system reflects the wishes of Swiss people, which is more than can be said of most other European countries.

Just out of curiosity how would you word this poll question?

I would word it very simply:

‘Do you think the current level of immigration into Ireland is too high?’

From conversations I have had with Poles over here they plan to be here to earn enough money to buy a place of their own back in Poland or to start a business back home.

Again, I hope you’re right about that. Personally, I have no problem with that kind of immigration, where people come up here for a few years to make enough money so that they can set themselves up back in their home country. That’s why I would support a work-permit system so that a certain number of people would be granted temporary work-permit which could be revoked after a few years.

My problem is with the people who choose to stay here permanently as I’d be worried about the long-term consequences of that.

Those figures are scaremongering of the most dramatic variety so I would hold no opinion on them at all as I believe they are bolderdash.

In that particular post I didn’t produce any figures. I was presenting a hypothetical scenario and was asking how you personally would feel about it.

[mike65]

My problem is with the people who choose to stay here permanently as I’d be worried about the long-term consequences of that.

What are your fears?

Mike.