Advertisement
If you have a new account but are having problems posting or verifying your account, please email us on hello@boards.ie for help. Thanks :)
Hello all! Please ensure that you are posting a new thread or question in the appropriate forum. The Feedback forum is overwhelmed with questions that are having to be moved elsewhere. If you need help to verify your account contact hello@boards.ie
Hi all,
Vanilla are planning an update to the site on April 24th (next Wednesday). It is a major PHP8 update which is expected to boost performance across the site. The site will be down from 7pm and it is expected to take about an hour to complete. We appreciate your patience during the update.
Thanks all.

western military a paper tiger?

2»

Comments

  • #32
    Karl Stein
    Closed Accounts Posts: 7,689 ✭✭✭Karl Stein


    Larry Wilkerson (visiting professor at the College of William & Mary, teaching courses on U.S. national security) isn't too confident of the US's ability to even win a proxy war in Ukraine.


  • #33
    gallag
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 3,355 ✭✭✭gallag


    I would have to imagine the US would also have many allies, hell the royal navy would reek havoc on the Russians, astute class subs, type 45's etc. In a conventional war the Russians would soon be destroyed.


  • #34
    sheesh
    Registered Users Posts: 4,080 ✭✭✭sheesh


    Skylinehead wrote: »
    Depends where they are really. If the Russians did decide to invade Ukraine, I wouldn't be backing the Americans.

    No the russians have invaded ukraine and the US is not going to go to war with another nuclear power for the Ukraine. If the Russians want to have a **** load of disaffected Ukrainians as part of their country Good luck to them!


  • #35
    Jawgap
    Closed Accounts Posts: 20,297 ✭✭✭✭Jawgap


    woodrow wyatt wrote: »
    Since the end of the cold war the west has been involved in a few wars.
    Iraq- started strong, but in the end you could not call it a victory, at best a draw.
    Somalia- did not get the result they wanted. Loss.
    The Balkans- I read a article a few year ago where a NATO general said if Serbia had held on for another week the bombing campaign would have been over due to the lack of still serviceable planes.A narrow Victory.
    Afghanistan-Started strong, and pulling out now, you could not call it a victory, at best a draw.
    Thats just the ones that come to mind.
    Now to Russia.
    Chechnya- could be classed as a internal issue, but non the less Russian victory.
    Georgia- After initial surprise of attack, Russian victory.
    Ukraine- Crimea taken without a bullet fired, Russian backed force are defeating Western Backed forces. shaping up to be a Russian victory.
    Is the much vaunted western military a paper tiger?
    Good for shock and awe against minor opposition,but when it comes right down to it not capable of fighting a war against a well trained and armed foe?

    Really, - think you'd find many Chechens, Georgians or Ukrainians to agree that they were / are defeated?

    Also this what victory looks like for the Russians.....

    About 2 years ago it was 30 Roubles to 1 US Dollar, now it's a shade over 70

    noname.jpg?resizeSmall&width=1340

    Coupled with the decline in the price of oil, I'd say they're in worse shape (and about to get 'worser') than the western militaries - they predicate their budgets based on oil being over $100 per barrel......

    GraphEngine.ashx?z=f&gf=110537.USD.bbl&dr=5y

    EDIT: That's even before you get to the impact the food embargoes are having - no one is starving, but a lot of people are paying way over the odds for local produce that is far inferior to the imported stuff they'd become accustomed to. And while they had a record grain harvest in 2014, 2015 is shaping up to be a below average year because of weather conditions and the increased cost of seed, fertilisers and herbicides.


  • #36
    woodrow wyatt
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 109 ✭✭woodrow wyatt


    Russia debt as % of GDP 11.17% - debt per citizen $1,651
    USA debt as % of GDP 104.87% - debt per citizen $57,028

    I would call this a win for Russia, would you not?


  • Advertisement
  • #37
    Jawgap
    Closed Accounts Posts: 20,297 ✭✭✭✭Jawgap


    woodrow wyatt wrote: »
    Russia debt as % of GDP 11.17% - debt per citizen $1,651
    USA debt as % of GDP 104.87% - debt per citizen $57,028

    I would call this a win for Russia, would you not?

    No, look at the currency you used to denominate the debt in......


    ........if the US decided to pay off all it's foreign debt tomorrow we'd all be fecked.

    Plus, if you look at the credit crunch Russian companies are enduring and add to that the haemorrhaging of capital (over $70 billion in Q4 2014 according to their own stats) and you can call it a win if you want, but given a choice where would rather move to - New York or Moscow?


  • #38
    woodrow wyatt
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 109 ✭✭woodrow wyatt


    Russia debt $236 billion
    USA debt $18,000 billion

    Yep it looks looks like Russia is the is the country in trouble.


  • #39
    Jawgap
    Closed Accounts Posts: 20,297 ✭✭✭✭Jawgap


    woodrow wyatt wrote: »
    Russia debt $236 billion
    USA debt $18,000 billion

    Yep it looks looks like Russia is the is the country in trouble.

    Again, have a look at the currency it's denominated it. The US controls the dollar - if it wanted to it could pay off all it's debts tomorrow simply by printing more greenbacks. If Russia wanted to pay off it's debt it would have to buy those dollars and at current exchange rates it's not going to able to.

    Also this time last year Russia had nearly half-a-trillion dollars in foreign reserves - in the last two quarters of 2014 it burned through 20% of that cash pile while the US, EU etc maintained their reserves.

    US GDP is growing at 1.6/1.7% per qtr (even the EU growing a bit) - Russia's has fallen off a cliff in the last 18 months - and the next 12 months don't look so hot.


  • #40
    woodrow wyatt
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 109 ✭✭woodrow wyatt


    15,170,450,680,049 rubles.
    only put in dollars to make comparison easy.


  • #41
    Jawgap
    Closed Accounts Posts: 20,297 ✭✭✭✭Jawgap


    woodrow wyatt wrote: »
    15,170,450,680,049 rubles.
    only put in dollars to make comparison easy.

    Yes, and completely useless, because no one wants Roubles! If they had to go buy the dollars to pay of their debt they couldn't because pouring half a trillion roubles into the international markets would further devalue the currency meaning they'd need to pour more into any purchase, which would further devalue it.....


  • Advertisement
  • #42
    woodrow wyatt
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 109 ✭✭woodrow wyatt


    Jawgap wrote: »
    The US controls the dollar - if it wanted to it could pay off all it's debts tomorrow simply by printing more greenbacks. If Russia wanted to pay off it's debt it would have to buy those dollars and at current exchange rates it's not going to able to.
    Jawgap wrote: »
    Yes, and completely useless, because no one wants Roubles! If they had to go buy the dollars to pay of their debt they couldn't because pouring half a trillion roubles into the international markets would further devalue the currency meaning they'd need to pour more into any purchase, which would further devalue it.....
    Weird logic, USA can print money to pay of debt but Russia can’t?
    Who knows in what currency Russia is in debt? Maybe the ruble.
    With the ruble crashing who is to say Russia is not selling its dollar reserves to buy rubies at a knock down price? Pay off all internal debt with a large discount..


  • #43
    Jawgap
    Closed Accounts Posts: 20,297 ✭✭✭✭Jawgap


    woodrow wyatt wrote: »
    Weird logic, USA can print money to pay of debt but Russia can’t?
    Who knows in what currency Russia is in debt? Maybe the ruble.
    With the ruble crashing who is to say Russia is not selling its dollar reserves to buy rubies at a knock down price? Pay off all internal debt with a large discount..

    The Rouble isn't a reserve currency - the dollar is and the Euro is. That's why debt is traded in those currencies. Russia can print all the Roubles it wants but it has to make payments in Dollars, meaning it has to get Dollars (earn foreign currency) to make sure they can make their payment schedule.

    ......and if they are paying down internal / domestic debt they are injecting money into their economy = expanding the money supply = price inflation = downward pressure on the Rouble's value.


  • #44
    woodrow wyatt
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 109 ✭✭woodrow wyatt


    Today Debaltsevo fell to the Rebels, the Ukraine military and their US/NATO advisors where defeated.
    The US/NATO is used to fighting lightly armed illiterate goat herders in Afghanistan instead of motivated, educated miners who are ex military, their tactics have consistently been defeated in Ukraine.
    Do you still believe it would be a easy win for the the west/NATO in a real fight against a highly motivated professional army of either Russia or China?


  • #45
    Jawgap
    Closed Accounts Posts: 20,297 ✭✭✭✭Jawgap


    woodrow wyatt wrote: »
    Today Debaltsevo fell to the Rebels, the Ukraine military and their US/NATO advisors where defeated.
    The US/NATO is used to fighting lightly armed illiterate goat herders in Afghanistan instead of motivated, educated miners who are ex military, their tactics have consistently been defeated in Ukraine.
    Do you still believe it would be a easy win for the the west/NATO in a real fight against a highly motivated professional army of either Russia or China?

    You're completely missing the point.

    Russia's objective is not to take over Ukraine, it is to prevent it falling into the EU and NATO spheres of influence. And, yes they are succeeding because as long as there is an active territorial dispute Ukraine can't join either organisation.

    You can't extrapolate from that, that Russia would prevail over NATO - for a start if NATO brought their full air power to bear, it would be a completely different environment.


  • #46
    IrishTrajan
    Closed Accounts Posts: 2,703 ✭✭✭IrishTrajan


    woodrow wyatt wrote: »
    Russia debt as % of GDP 11.17% - debt per citizen $1,651
    USA debt as % of GDP 104.87% - debt per citizen $57,028

    I would call this a win for Russia, would you not?

    No, I wouldn't.

    The reason U.S. debt is so high, is because they can afford to have it high. The better a country's credit rating, the lower the interest rate their bonds yield.

    Basically, it's cheaper for the U.S. to borrow, so they borrow massive amounts of money at very low interest. Russia, on the other hand, has a worse credit rating, and so the cost of borrowing is higher for them, so they have low debt per person.

    Russia's economy is also a one-trick pony, and the age of $100bbl is gone. Russia will run out of cash reserves this year, and if Western sanctions aren't lifted by then, it's tough times ahead for them.


  • #47
    IrishTrajan
    Closed Accounts Posts: 2,703 ✭✭✭IrishTrajan


    woodrow wyatt wrote: »
    Today Debaltsevo fell to the Rebels, the Ukraine military and their US/NATO advisors where defeated.
    The US/NATO is used to fighting lightly armed illiterate goat herders in Afghanistan instead of motivated, educated miners who are ex military, their tactics have consistently been defeated in Ukraine.
    Do you still believe it would be a easy win for the the west/NATO in a real fight against a highly motivated professional army of either Russia or China?

    Haha, dude what.

    An easy win? No, because both of them have nuclear weapons and Russia's SAM system is quite decent. However, NATO would defeat Russia and China, make no mistake.

    You know who is the largest air power in the world? The USAF. You know who is the second largest? The United States Navy. You know who is third, if account for logistical, training craft et al? The U.S. Army.

    NATO is, quite simply, too powerful to lose a conventional war. They have high quality hardware in large quantities, they have high quality soldiers in large quantities.

    The U.S. has eleven carriers, I don't think you understand the true magnitude of firepower those CBGs have. If the U.S. had to, they could probably just fly a couple bunker busters into the Three Gorges Dam, and cripple China with one strike.

    The West isn't going to lose a conventional war any time soon.


  • #48
    woodrow wyatt
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 109 ✭✭woodrow wyatt


    Tactical the west has taken a beaten in ukraine, yes or no?


  • #49
    IrishTrajan
    Closed Accounts Posts: 2,703 ✭✭✭IrishTrajan


    woodrow wyatt wrote: »
    Tactical the west has taken a beaten in ukraine, yes or no?

    No.

    "Tactic" refers to a specific battlefield plan. Strategy refers to the plan for executing the war.

    The West doesn't have combat troops in Ukraine, so it hasn't even been in a battle.

    If the West did get involved with combat troops, you can bet your bottom dollar, the rebels' area of control would be shattered, and they'd have to resort to insurgency tactics.


  • #50
    woodrow wyatt
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 109 ✭✭woodrow wyatt


    IrishTrajan wrote: »

    If the West did get involved with combat troops, you can bet your bottom dollar, the rebels' area of control would be shattered, and they'd have to resort to insurgency tactics.
    Western advisers in ukraine have consistently been bettered by russian advisers in in this conflict.
    If western troops get involved officially expect russian support to go from covert to overt, imagine what the rebels could achieve armed to the teeth with top of the range weapons.


  • #51
    Jawgap
    Closed Accounts Posts: 20,297 ✭✭✭✭Jawgap


    woodrow wyatt wrote: »
    Tactical the west has taken a beaten in ukraine, yes or no?

    Russia might be winning the battle on the ground in Ukraine, but it's losing the war with the West......

    Collapsing retail sales (worst since the fall of the USSR)
    Inflation at 15% and forecast to go to 17% in the short term
    Contracting wages
    Banks needing recapitalisation to the tune of about $20 billion
    Consumer confidence at low levels
    Business activity at its lowest in 6 years
    ......and the government is running a primary deficit in its budget.

    Putin Lets Consumers Feel Pain as Russian Slump Deepens: Economy


  • Advertisement
  • #52
    Jawgap
    Closed Accounts Posts: 20,297 ✭✭✭✭Jawgap


    woodrow wyatt wrote: »
    Western advisers in ukraine have consistently been bettered by russian advisers in in this conflict.
    If western troops get involved officially expect russian support to go from covert to overt, imagine what the rebels could achieve armed to the teeth with top of the range weapons.

    Yeah, except Russia doesn't have top of the range weapons.


  • #53
    woodrow wyatt
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 109 ✭✭woodrow wyatt


    Jawgap wrote: »
    Yeah, except Russia doesn't have top of the range weapons.

    Well their second string weapons the rebels have are doing a fine job at the moment are they not?


  • #54
    woodrow wyatt
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 109 ✭✭woodrow wyatt


    Jawgap wrote: »
    Banks needing recapitalisation to the tune of about $20 billion

    [/URL]

    Is that all?
    Peanuts compared to the state of banks in the euro zone.


  • #55
    Jawgap
    Closed Accounts Posts: 20,297 ✭✭✭✭Jawgap


    woodrow wyatt wrote: »
    Well their second string weapons the rebels have are doing a fine job at the moment are they not?

    Yes, because they have been able to operate in a benign environment. If NATO threw even a fraction of their air assets at the situation the 'little green men' would be reduced to hit and run. They certainly wouldn't be trundling around in tanks and any artillery fire missions would be of the 'shoot and scoot' type.


  • #56
    IrishTrajan
    Closed Accounts Posts: 2,703 ✭✭✭IrishTrajan


    woodrow wyatt wrote: »
    Well their second string weapons the rebels have are doing a fine job at the moment are they not?

    Only because the Ukrainians have rusted Soviet-era equipment. Of course the Russians are going to win when they know exactly what equipment is being used by their opponents.

    Also, it's not "Russian advisors" on the ground... The Commanders all have ties to the Kremlin officially, from military pasts.


  • #57
    IrishTrajan
    Closed Accounts Posts: 2,703 ✭✭✭IrishTrajan


    woodrow wyatt wrote: »
    Is that all?
    Peanuts compared to the state of banks in the euro zone.

    The Russian economy is $2 trillion. The E.U. is $18.5 trillion. The E.U. also has an ability to trade and acquire more reserves. Russia's access to financial and commercial markets is heavily restricted.

    Please refrain from making uneducated assumptions.


  • #58
    Jawgap
    Closed Accounts Posts: 20,297 ✭✭✭✭Jawgap


    woodrow wyatt wrote: »
    Is that all?
    Peanuts compared to the state of banks in the euro zone.

    You really need to go do some reading - the Eurozone banks had to be recapitalised for different reasons. The Russian banks have had to be recapitalised because capital is fleeing the country - if people thought Russia was a good bet, they'd be pouring money into it, not withdrawing it and moving it outside the country.


Advertisement