Irelands most likely Olympic 2012 Medals

Cosmo Kramer · 10-06-2012 7:29pm

I take it there is no reserve list for Bryan to wait on? After such a long swim he was beaten out by less than one tenth of a second which is very unfortunate for him.

Dan man · 10-06-2012 7:38pm

Cosmo Kramer wrote: »

I take it there is no reserve list for Bryan to wait on? After such a long swim he was beaten out by less than one tenth of a second which is very unfortunate for him.

I think his only chance would be if one of the qualified NOCs did not use their quota but this is very unlikely. However, if this unlikely event did happen, then Chris Bryan would be first in line (except if it was one of the NOCs who gained a place specifically on the continental quota system...in that event it would go to the highest placed swimmer from that continent). It's improbable though but at least he's in the best position to benefit from any re-allocations.

Dan man · 10-06-2012 8:41pm

Chris Bryan tweet:

15th place in Olympic Qualifier. Still possibility of Olympic Qualification, waiting to hear verdict

Not sure what avenue he is going down regarding the qualification chance, hope it's successful.

Truman Burbank · 10-06-2012 9:28pm

Dodge wrote: »

Swim Ireland say he lost out on Olympic place in a photo finish. Ouch

http://www.fina.org/H2O/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=2909&Itemid=1304

Dan man · 10-06-2012 9:38pm

I think this is the chance that Chris is referring to in his tweet:

http://www.swimmingnz.org.nz/membership/news-media/hot-pace-surprises-radford-in-olympic-marathon-swim-qualifier

It looks like New Zealand might decline their quota place so Chris should benefit from any such re-allocation of the quota position. Nothing certain yet so we can be quietly hopeful for his chances. Fingers crossed.

Dodge · 11-06-2012 11:04am

Right, here's my rankings of 25 outside medals chances for Ireland. Of course the overwhelming majority of these won't medal but these are (IMO) the most likely

1 Katie Taylor - 60kg - Light - Boxing
2 John Joe Nevin - 56kg - Bantam - Boxing
3 Peter O'Leary/David Burrows - Star - Sailing
4 Darren O'Neill - 75kg - Middle - Boxing
5 Annalise Murphy - Laser Radial - Sailing
6 Aileen Morrison - Ladies - Triathlon
7 Paddy Barnes - 49kg - Light Fly - Boxing
8 (2 spots qualified)* - Individual - Showjumping
9 Rob Heffernan - 50k Walk - Track and field Athletics
10 Olive Loughnane - 20k Walk - Track and field Athletics
11 Andrzej Jezierski - C1 200m - Canoe sprint
12 Ryan Seaton/Matt McGovern - 49er - Sailing
13 Eoin Rheinisch - K2 - Canoe Slalom
14 Grainne Murphy - 800m Free - Swimming
15 Michael Conlon - 52kg - Fly - Boxing
16 (Nicolas Roche/Dan Martin)** - Road Race - Cycling - Road
17 Derval O'Rourke - 100m H - Track and field Athletics
18 Fionnuala Britton - 5,000m - Track and field Athletics
19 Adam Nolan - 69kg - Welter - Boxing
20 Ger Owens/Scott Flanagan - 470 - Sailing
21 Sycerika McMahon - 100m Breast - Swimming
22 Kieran Behan - Individual (Floor) - Gymnastics
23 Rob Heffernan - 20k Walk - Track and field Athletics
24 Martyn Irvine - Omnium - Track Cyling
25 Derek Burnett - Trap men - Shooting

* Showjumpers haven't been selected but the 2 most likely are Denis Lynch and Billy Twomey. They're ranked 16 and 27 in the world.
** Cycling Road race course doesn't suit martin but he's the best rider we have (and one of the world's finest). Both are good enough to win a medal (without question) but will need to be lucky and get in the right breakaway

knockcon · 11-06-2012 11:38am

Nice one dodge. I assume they are in order of likelihood? I think Martin irvine has a good chance and may scrape into my top ten. His performance at the world champs in Melbourne was impressive. What u reckon?

Dan man · 11-06-2012 11:46am

knockcon wrote: »

Nice one dodge. I assume they are in order of likelihood? I think Martin irvine has a good chance and may scrape into my top ten. His performance at the world champs in Melbourne was impressive. What u reckon?

I don't think he's one of our 10 most likely to medal, but he has an outside chance and I'd have him in top 15 at least.

Dodge · 11-06-2012 12:00pm

He might do, yeah. Again, if he's lucky with a break in the poinnts race that could really help him. If I was picking 'athletes to finish in the top ten' I'd have him way ahead of some there. he's a sure enough bet for that. Roche (for example) in the road race could medal, or could finish 80th.

Rheinisch may not qualify from semi final, but if he does, the sport he's in always gives any finalist a chance to medal

Dan man · 11-06-2012 12:16pm

This thread has just passed the 1,000 posts mark!!

knockcon · 11-06-2012 12:22pm

All fair comments. I just felt that in Melbourne he seemed to be riding within himself with the aim of assuring qualification. So I'll have a similar top ten to yourself except I'm gonna put irvine in at the expense of olive loughnane. I'll also bump barnes up to 3rd.

knockcon · 11-06-2012 12:24pm

Dan man wrote: »

This thread has just passed the 1,000 posts mark!!

Great stuff . Well done all. Particulary Dan and dodge.

Dan man · 11-06-2012 12:27pm

I wonder will we hear any news on the Joe Ward situation today. I heard June 11th being mentioned as a possible date for when the Tripartite Commission are to award their invitation places for the boxers.

Dan man · 11-06-2012 12:59pm

The Irish Independent are cofirming what I already suspected....Anna Merveldt seems to be fairly sure of her Olympic starting place in Individual Dressage...it's merely a formality now as there's no chance that the Colombian team can avail of all of their quota places. We might as well put her down as Ireland's 58th Olympic qualifier at this stage. Here's a link to the article:

http://www.independent.ie/sport/other-sports/olympic-spot-for-merveldt-3134126.html

Dodge · 11-06-2012 1:18pm

Have a feeling they're only reportig what you've posted Dan. Good work

AIBA is expected to meet today. Strangely enough Katie Taylor's plea for the best boxers in ther weight category to get the nominations could help Joe Ward if they decide to go that route. The fact the touted Afghani boxer lasted less than 2 minutes won't help her cause.

Dan man · 11-06-2012 2:33pm

Thanks, imagine if they were getting their information from this thread!!

Don't think so, but it's quite funny to imagine this is the case anyway!

Skid · 11-06-2012 3:11pm

Dan man wrote: »

I wonder will we hear any news on the Joe Ward situation today. I heard June 11th being mentioned as a possible date for when the Tripartite Commission are to award their invitation places for the boxers.

I hope a decision is made on this soon, it is very unfair on the hopefuls to continually delay the invitation selection.

Obviously I hope Joe Ward gets the nod, but it must torture on him and the Bosnian boxer and others in contention for the invitation places.

Dan man · 11-06-2012 4:13pm

The latest on the boxing invitation places is that the boxers will learn their fate in the next few days....not today then but in the "next few days". Who knows what day they'll be announced then, could be tomorrow, could be next week. It's really frustrating, can't imagine how Joe Ward is feeling.

Cosmo Kramer · 11-06-2012 10:00pm

If anyone is in the area there will be an interview with Chris Bryan tomorrow morning at 9am on Clare FM. Perhaps he will give an indication as to where he feels the vacancy needed to get him to London is likely to come from.

Dodge · 11-06-2012 10:30pm

Bryan tweeted

"Final NF confirmation for the Olympic 10km is on the 18th of June, so I'll def hear before then. Hopefully ASAP"

Dan man · 11-06-2012 10:32pm

Cosmo Kramer wrote: »

If anyone is in the area there will be an interview with Chris Bryan tomorrow morning at 9am on Clare FM. Perhaps he will give an indication as to where he feels the vacancy needed to get him to London is likely to come from.

I'm sure the vacancy he is hoping for is the re-allocation of New Zealand's unused continental quota place. As there were no other Oceanian swimmers at the qualifying event the rules state that the place will be re-distributed to the highest placed non-qualifier from that event...this is Chris, but he'll still be waiting anxiously to see if New Zealand, as expected, decline their qualifying spots. I'm sure Chris will give an indication tomorrow if this is the situation he's awaiting tomorrow....he probably won't want to be too confident though until it's been confirmed.

K_1 · 11-06-2012 11:34pm

Just to be pedantic with that list, Eoin Rheinisch is in K1. K2 is a two person boat.

Great work though Dan!

Dan man · 12-06-2012 12:17am

K_1 wrote: »

Just to be pedantic with that list, Eoin Rheinisch is in K1. K2 is a two person boat.

Great work though Dan!

Not sure if your crediting me with the list but just in case I should point out it was Dodge's list. Thanks anyway!

swim2 · 12-06-2012 9:25am

Just listening to the interview.
It turns out Chris had shingles coming up to the race, so to come 15th is a great result for him!!
He is hopeful that New Zealand wont send a swimmer and that he would get the spot. But there is confusion over the rules with FINA, which means the spot may have to go to someone from Oceania, as in the person from Guam who finished lower in the race.
He isnt assuming anything

feargale · 12-06-2012 10:17am

Summary of Clare FM's Chris Bryan's interview:
New Zealand are extremely likely to decline their allocated place.
Q1. Should it then go to C. Bryan or to the next best from Oceania < ranks 55th > ? One referee thought Oceania, another wasn't sure. C. Bryan, having dissected the rule-book, is confident that the rules favour him.
Q2. If that fails, will the Brits bother to take up their allocated place ? In Portugal they achieved lowly 36th and 40th places.
We should know the answer on 18th June, but by 2nd July at the latest.
P.S. IMO the host country partakes in every event, even if it means a 100m. sprinter on a zimmer-frame - right or wrong ?

Dan man · 12-06-2012 11:12am

Yet another case of a sport's qualification criteria being very ambiguous and open to interpretation. I have a suspicion when they are doing up those qualification systems they deliberately make them ambiguous so the sport's governing body has a choice of who they want to send . Both Bryan and the swimmer from Guam have a good argument that the spot should go to them....one part of the qualification system states that in the Maraton Qualification Event (the qualifier that has just taken place) that the best ranked athlete from each continent will qualify.
This was the New Zealand swimmer but should this then go to Guam because they declined their place?
Well I think Chris has a superb chance as it does not say this should happen in the rules.
The only guidelines in the qualification system for unused quota places is that it goes to the highest non-qualifier from the qualification event.
Who knows though what FINA will decide but I hope in future they tie up all of these loose ends in terms of the qualification systems not covering all of the possible scenarios.

FitzjamesHorse · 12-06-2012 12:08pm

I think theres always two ways of looking at the Olympics.
At one level its about Excellence. At another level its about 205 nations gathering together.
If the Olympics was merely about people being there on merit or being competitive there would only be around 150 nations competing. The Marathon would have about ten runners from Ethiopia, Kenya etc and the sprints have ten from USA and Jamaica.
Its about balance and we have to face the fact that the Olympics is one of the few occasions when people from some countries get a chance to showcase their talents.
In some cases "Eric the Eel" it is a good and in a way....touching. In other cases "Eddie the Eagle" perhaps, it is a bit embarrassing.
In the specific case of Chris Bryan, I hope that there is a way that both he and the swimmer from Guam get to London.
The problem for any host nation is that they do for the most part have a "right" to compete in every event and its certainly a chance to raise standards (Britain and Basketball perhaps) but also a chance to look rather outclassed (I believe Britain has not taken up its full quota in Wrestling).

Dodge · 12-06-2012 1:09pm

Host country doesn't have an automatic right to enter in every event

In Mens boxing for example they had 5 sports reserved over the 10 weight categories ( they didn't need them in the end). So there's 3 weigths with GB boxers. As has been mentioned they've only one wrestler (despite having 3 host spots reserved)

They did take up their spots in the team events and will be esy pickings in basketball, volleyball, handball and water polo.

On Chris Bryan, i think he'll get in if the NZer pulls out, but we'll find out soon enough

swim2 · 12-06-2012 1:28pm

Here is a bit more from FINA. It isn,t clearly written
QUALIFICATION PATHWAY
FOR MEN AND WOMEN
1. 2011 FINA World Championships
20 Marathon Swimmers (10 Men & 10 Women) - [FONT=Arial,Arial][FONT=Arial,Arial]The ten (10) best ranked athletes from the 10km event will obtain a quota place.
[/FONT][/FONT]2. FINA Olympic Marathon Swim Qualifier 2012
18 Marathon Swimmers (9 Men & 9 Women) [FONT=Arial,Arial][FONT=Arial,Arial]- The nine (9) best ranked athletes will obtain a quota place. Only NOC/NF that have no swimmer qualified through the 2011 World Championships may elect to send a maximum of two (2) athletes per event to the qualifier. Each NOC/NF can qualify a maximum of one (1) athlete per gender.
[/FONT][/FONT][FONT=Arial,Arial][FONT=Arial,Arial]Continental Representation
[/FONT][/FONT]10 Marathon Swimmers (5 Men & 5 Women) - [FONT=Arial,Arial][FONT=Arial,Arial]The best ranked athlete in the FINA Olympic Marathon Swim Qualifier 2012, not yet qualified, from each of five (5) Continents will obtain a quota place.
Should an NOC/NF have previously qualified one (1) or two (2) swimmers, the quota place will be allocated to the next best ranked athlete, not yet qualified, in the ranking of the FINA Olympic Marathon Swim Qualifier 2012 event to ensure that each of these competitions yields a competitor. [/FONT][/FONT]

This suggests that there will be one 'quota place' allocated to the best ranked continental athlete.
These 15 quota place are initially allocated. Regardless if you are 1st and have the automatic spot or 27th and receive the continental place they are all of the same value 'quota' places.

So then there is a section to deal with this quota places which are all of same value regardless of how they were aquired.

Reallocation of unused quota places
REALLOCATION OF UNUSED IF QUOTA PLACES

[FONT=Arial,Arial][FONT=Arial,Arial]The unused IF quota place(s) will be reallocated to the next best ranked athlete from the 2012 FINA Olympic Marathon Swim Qualifier 2012, not yet qualified. [/FONT][/FONT]

REALLOCATION OF UNUSED HOST COUNTRY PLACES

[FONT=Arial,Arial][FONT=Arial,Arial]Should the Host Country decide not to use its host country places, the place(s) will be reallocated to the next best ranked athlete in the same gender from the 2012 FINA Olympic Marathon Swim Qualifier 2012, not yet qualified. [/FONT][/FONT]

Dan man · 12-06-2012 3:12pm

With just under a month left before the qualification deadlines come to pass Ireland has qualified 58 athletes for the London Olympics. Here is an indication of other possible qualifiers before the deadline arrives:

ATHLETICS (a good chance 5-10 additional members):
Track and field events probably provide our best chances of adding to the current number of Olympic qualifiers.

Jason Smyth (100m) - he has the B-standard and his time of 10.24 secs isn't too far outside the 10.18secs A-standard time.
Steven Colvert (200m) - as Paul Hession already has the A-time of 20.55secs it means that Colvert will need to hit that time also which means an improvement from his current best time of 20.69secs.
Mark English (800m) - this 19 year old sensation has already run the B-standard a couple of weeks ago and is just 0.17secs off the A-time of 1:45.60mins.
Mark Christie (5,000m) - he needs to run a big P.B. in order to dip inside the A standard of 13:20.00mins but I think he has at least an outside chance even if unlikely.
Ben Reynolds (110m Hurdles) - his best this year of 13.81secs is still well outside the A standard of 13.52 secs and the B-standard of 13.60secs may still be a little out of reach for him at this stage of his young career. However, I would give him an outside chance given his young age and possibility to make a big leap forward.
Ciara Mageean (1,500m) - she has the B time from last year and current form would suggest she might not be able to upgrade to the A standard in the remaining weeks before the cut-off point. She might be relying on being sent on the B-time from last year but with Ciara you never know. She has loads of talent and she could yet put in a very good time if she is on form.
Jessie Barr - 400m Hurdles - she has the B-standard time and is edging nearer to the A-standard time (although she is still quite a way off). She needs to improve from 56.16 secs to 55.50secs but she has a good chance of being sent with the B-standard as she could well be selected as part of the 4x400m relay squad anyway.
5 additional members to join Joanne Cuddihy in the 4x400m relay team (in order of likelihood the team could be any 5 of Michelle Carey, Claire Bergin, Marian Heffernan, Joanna Mills, Jessie Barr and Caitriona Cuddihy).

There are others with small chances too and some with the pedigree to achieve the standards such as Mary Cullen, Kelly Proper, David Gillick and Roisin McGettigan but appear to be running out of time to mount a serious challenge.
There are about 10 solid chances, and 5 are likely to qualify as part of the relay team and even a pessimistic onlooker might suggest at least one of the others listed above could make the team.

SWIMMING (1):

Chris Bryan - 10km Marathon Open Water Swim (awaiting the decision of the possible re-allocation of an unused quota place)
There may be an outside chance that other swimmers could still get the qualifying times but I think it's fairly unlikely (perhaps Aisling Cooney in the backstroke would be the best chance but I think the team is likely to remain unchanged)

BOXING (1):

Joe Ward (Men's Light-Heavyweight) - he's awaiting the decision on who is awarded the invitation place in this weight category

EVENTING (2):

Ireland has 2 riders in 1st and 3rd place on the reserve list and it is highly likely that both will be awarded quota places once the re-distribution of unused quota places process is completed

CANOEING (1):

Jenny Egan (Women's K1 200m Sprint) - she is awaiting the re-distribution of unused quota places and has a slim chance of being awarded a quota place, most likely in the 200m event.

My estimation is that we will gain in the region of 7-12 more qualifiers for the Olympics to add to the current squad of 58. The women's 4x400m realy team is almost a certainty and that would immediately bring the number to 63. The 2 eventers on the reserve list will likely raise the number to 65 and I would think that either through a change of the B-standard policy stance or late qualifiers will push the total near the 70 mark. Therefore between 65-70 seems to be a reasonable estimation and if it doesn't fall within this bracket then it will be on the high side rather than the lower end of that range. Looks encouraging.
I don't see any hope for Caroline Ryan in the women's road race cycling but I could be wrong.

Irelands most likely Olympic 2012 Medals

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