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Winter Charts 2011/2012

TheInquisitor · 2011-09-23 18:35:33

So folks i have found the first FI chart of the winter season! Worryingly i've had to start this thread 12 days later than last years! :( http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2056029276 Here's the first chart of the new season! Enjoy With SSt's still very high its unlikely to get anything close to snow near the…

23-09-2011 7:35pm

#1

TheInquisitor

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So folks i have found the first FI chart of the winter season!

Worryingly i've had to start this thread 12 days later than last years!

http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2056029276

Here's the first chart of the new season! Enjoy

With SSt's still very high its unlikely to get anything close to snow near the ground however its possible we might get some snow on mountain tops. The cold air will be moving quickly down from the north so shouldn't have much time to warm up. It's showing -4 temps all over northern ireland and -6 temps just off the north west coast.

and another

More northerly this time. Cold chill in the air. Maybe some sleet and snow on mountain tops in the extreme north

The main thing being this is the first day that i've never minus 850hPa temps in charts over Ireland since the spring.

The chances of anything like this coming off are less than 1/100 as the charts are this range change so often. Its called Fantasy Island for a reason!

AS this time of year at the very least you'd want -8 temps to have any chance of snow at lower levels.

In any case...IT BEGINS!

27

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#2 23-09-2011 8:10pm

Pangea

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Thanks, a little explanation wouldn't go a miss to explain what the chart would bring. Please.

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#3 23-09-2011 9:40pm

TheInquisitor

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Just a note on sea temps. They seem to be about a degree lower this year compared to the same time last year. This come allow an earlier winter...

In fact off the south coast their 2 degrees lower!

Yesterday's temps

Last years temps

And where the temps need to get to this winter!

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#4 23-09-2011 9:44pm

NIALL D

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sweet , love this thread,. always interesting to watch ta !

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#5 23-09-2011 10:27pm

Tom Cruises Left Nut

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I was only sitting in work today thinking I would love this thread to come up again ! BRAVO !! :pac:

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#6 23-09-2011 10:27pm

Iancar29

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ITS BAAAAAAAAAAAAAAACCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCKKKKK WOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

So what if that chart probably changes to a heatwave in tomorrows run... ha

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#7 23-09-2011 10:47pm

Elmo5

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now this is more like it!!! :D:D

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#8 23-09-2011 11:20pm

Su Campu

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The northeastern Atlantic has been colder than normal for much of the summer, and after a brief recovery, it's cooling down again to our southwest. However, to our north and east - the best source of our cold - seas are well above normal at the moment.

Look at the actual temperatures. The 7 °C isotherm stretches from southern Greenland, past northern Iceland and on towards Svalbard, meaning there's a lot of warm sea between there and here. I think this thread's around a month too early, but I suppose why not another winter thread!

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#9 23-09-2011 11:47pm

Tactical

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It begins

Leaves are starting to fall off the trees, changing the tyres on the vehicle shortly for proper winter tyres.

Looking forward to the winter and the fun that snow watch brings Great to see so many people following a thread and always such fun too with a nice bunch of people

Bring it on :D:D

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#10 24-09-2011 12:51am

Harps

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Pangea wrote: »

Thanks, a little explanation wouldn't go a miss to explain what the chart would bring. Please.

To give a quick explanation of the 850hPa charts, basically theyre showing the temp of the air at the 850hPa height, roughly 1500m up in the atmosphere.

The chart itself is pretty self explanitory, theres a legend along the bottom showing the temperature, obviously blue = cold and yellow & red = warm. Typically during the winter we need temps somewhere around -5C before we can start thinking of snow on low ground and around -7C or -8C for some proper stuff

The charts are available here, just click 'precharger' on the left and run your mouse along the hours

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?ech=6&code=0&mode=1

For proper FI stuff, click 'Suite' at the bottom to show the long term prediction

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#11 24-09-2011 8:31am

aurora 527

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NIALL D wrote: »

sweet , love this thread,. always interesting to watch ta !

Totally agree!

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#12 24-09-2011 11:10am

Min

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This morning it shows mild to warm weather upto the 10th of October

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#13 24-09-2011 7:21pm

thetonynator

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Min wrote: »

This morning it shows mild to warm weather upto the 10th of October

That sort of a run was never going to happen anyway. And neither is the one it's showing now!

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#14 26-09-2011 12:41am

tomcosgrave

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Great to see this back. Lampost watchers unite!

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#15 26-09-2011 5:00pm

bb1234567

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tomcosgrave wrote: »

Great to see this back. Lampost watchers unite!

hah i didnt know other people watched lamposts to see if it was snowing til now, thought i was the only one ! spent most of december sitting on the couch by the window watching the lamposts for snow..im so sad:p oh well:D

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#16 26-09-2011 5:15pm

tomcosgrave

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Watching lamposts is the first sign of madness.
I felt much better when I first started reading this forum and realised that I wasn't alone ;-)

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#17 26-09-2011 5:37pm

NIALL D

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tomcosgrave wrote: »

Watching lamposts is the first sign of madness.
I felt much better when I first started reading this forum and realised that I wasn't alone ;-)

lol , tiz a fact !!!!!

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#18 26-09-2011 7:13pm

TheInquisitor

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I have saved this picture on my computer as "Grasping at straws"

This is the best one after going through every of the 20 GEFS Perturbations

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#19 26-09-2011 7:15pm

Mountainsandh

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That should really include front porch lights. I mean, we rural dwellers are fully entitled to watch them too if we like. Mine is very good and the angle is just right for "cornerofmyeye" watching. Of course even better if the car's parked right near it.

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#20 26-09-2011 8:58pm

bb1234567

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TheInquisitor wrote: »

I have saved this picture on my computer as "Grasping at straws"

This is the best one after going through every of the 20 GEFS Perturbations

-2 degress at 3pm in mid october in dublin :O thatd be amazing sure it was only a bit colder during daytime in december 2010 daytime highs in dublin were only like -3. coule the above actually happen?:)

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#21 26-09-2011 9:07pm

Redsunset

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Not insulting your intelligence but there 1500 temps not 2m

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#22 26-09-2011 9:08pm

patneve2

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bb1234567 wrote: »

-2 degress at 3pm in mid october in dublin :O thatd be amazing sure it was only a bit colder during daytime in december 2010 daytime highs in dublin were only like -3. coule the above actually happen?:)

that is at 850 level....which translates to 1500 meters....so that -3 temperature is actually forecast at 1500 meters

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#23 26-09-2011 9:25pm

bb1234567

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my bad:o im only 15 dont know much about weather sorry!:o
anywho what temps would -2 at 1500m mean for a dublin suburb fairly far away from city centre like rathgar where my old house is ?

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#24 26-09-2011 9:35pm

TheInquisitor

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At this time of year it would be anywhere from 4 degrees to 8 degrees depending on cloud cover etc

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#25 26-09-2011 9:38pm

Duiske

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bb1234567 wrote: »

anywho what temps would -2 at 1500m mean for a dublin suburb fairly far away from city centre like rathgar where my old house is ?

For a rough idea, if you add 10 degrees to the 1500m temps you will not be too far out. So -2 at 1500m should see temps in or around +8 at 2m.

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#26 26-09-2011 9:54pm

bb1234567

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im not actually 2m above sea level guys! im a lot more inland than dublin city centre nd im prob around 250m above sea level so what temp now then?

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#27 26-09-2011 9:56pm

thetonynator

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bb1234567 wrote: »

im not actually 2m above sea level guys! im a lot more inland than dublin city centre nd im prob around 250m above sea level so what temp now then?

About 1.5-2 degrees lower, so around 6 degrees or so. No chance of snow, except on mountains.

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#28 26-09-2011 10:21pm

megatron989

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If pure willpower alone could cause snow I think it'd be like the snowpocalypse out their already! O how megatron loves the snow (and the f5 key, lol)

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#29 26-09-2011 10:21pm

alfa beta

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Hey bb - as a rule of thumb you'd want the -8 shade of blue over the country before you've any real chance of seeing some white stuff.

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#30 27-09-2011 10:42am

sparrowcar

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Big smile on my face when i saw this thread back. Myself and my dad even chat about FI charts anytime I see him during winter... Gas

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#31 27-09-2011 12:36pm

kstand

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Lads where do ye get these graphs from?
Is there any website that provides them freely where I could get them myself?
Must admit I loved these threads last year.

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