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Second Annual Winter Forecast Contest

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13

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    #62
    M.T. Cranium
    Registered Users Posts: 14,326 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Thanks to "thetonynator" we have this nifty table of entries. You can play around with it to get the forecasts in order, just click on the top of each column to get options. And please check your entries although I have already done so here at Global HQ ... the seasonal values are simply the averages of your three predictions, unweighted (in reality Feb being shorter, these would undergo a slight adjustment, but it's hardly worth the bother).

    Username|DEC IMT|JAN IMT|FEB IMT|SEASON IMT|DEC PRC|JAN PRC|FEB PRC|SEASON PRC|MAX|MIN|SNOW|WIND
    Strasser|5.9|4.5|6.1|5.5|110|91|115|105|17.2|-7.4|20|87
    Rebelbrowser|3.8|2.6|5.6|4.0|95|80|125|100|16.1|-11.6|29|79
    pauldry|6.6|3.7|6.9|5.7|135|99|101|112|17.5|-8.3|17|75
    Iancar29|6.0|4.0|5.0|5.0|90|120|85|98|17.5|-13.0|22|72
    dsmythy|5.3|4.8|5.6|5.2|111|71|137|106|15.4|-8.6|13|67
    nacho libre|5.1|3.9|6.1|5.0|85|125|105|105|15.8|-10.6|25|83
    Mmcd|3.3|1.9|5.4|3.5|85|75|120|93|14.2|-13.7|18|83
    scary|3.5|2.9|5.4|3.9|98|101|85|95|14.4|-11.6|18|79
    flying11|5.1|3.6|4.7|4.5|113|62|85|87|17.1|-9.4|31|76
    Joe Public|5.9|2.7|3.1|3.9|119|79|79|92|14.3|-11.9|22|81
    baraca|2.9|1.7|4.1|2.9|124|75|90|96|15.1|-14.4|51|83
    NIALL D|4.7|2.9|3.5|3.7|110|85|105|100|15.2|-12.7|33|79
    M.T. Cranium|5.2|1.5|6.3|4.3|110|80|70|87|16.0|-18.0|39.4|82
    Rougies|4.4|1.1|5.9|3.8|104|82|85|90|15.8|-16.2|41.8|69
    WolfeIRE|4.9|3.1|4.5|4.2|120|105|95|107|15.0|-17.6|23|79
    redsunset|3.0|0.5|4.9|2.8|80|90|110|93|17.0|-17.8|100|75
    200motels|5.7|4.7|6.3|5.6|146|139|133|139|16.4|-10.5|12|76
    BLIZZARD7|4.9|-0.5|2.4|2.3|98|150|85|111|14.5|-19.0|140|83
    Deep Easterly|4.9|5.3|2.1|4.1|180|240|30|150|15.8|-10.6|34|96
    Wild Bill|5.5|4.2|5.1|4.9|100|105|80|95|16.3|-6.8|8|123
    thetonynator|4.0|1.4|5.1|3.5|90|76|91|86|15.9|-7.2|24|77
    Harps|4.6|3.4|5.3|4.4|110|75|120|102|15.4|-8.5|17|80
    homolumo|5.0|1.7|6.0|4.2|110|85|77|91|15.5|-13.3|9.4|73
    okla|5.0|3.3|4.2|4.2|90|108|80|93|15.5|-10.0|28|75
    snowstreams|5.3|2.5|3.6|3.8|108|85|95|96|16.4|-10.4|33|72
    talkabout|5.9|3.5|3.6|4.3|95|105|104|101|15.4|-9.4|13|68
    jdee99|5.3|2.4|3.1|3.6|112|115|90|106|10.2|-15.6|16|68
    Elmer Blooker|7.2|6.2|5.8|6.4|80|150|120|117|15.8|-5.3|3|72
    oterra|7.5|6.6|6.0|6.7|75|110|120|102|13.7|-12.3|26|78
    Su Campu|5.3|4.9|5.5|5.2|100|95|115|103|13.1|-8.8|9|68
    Sponge Bob|5.5|5.3|5.4|5.4|100|100|100|100|14.7|-11.1|6|69
    karl tyrrell|-0.4|3.5|8.6|3.9|87|94|152|111|14.8|-32.0|74|82
    H2UMrsRobinson|8.1|1.4|4.2|4.6|89|99|109|99|15.6|-15.6|25|78
    cdev|4.1|0.4|4.3|2.9|90|106|115|104|15.5|-17.8|56|79
    kindredspirit|5.5|3.0|5.5|4.7|110|65|95|90|15.8|-7.0|25|75
    John mac|5.3|5.2|5.3|5.3|99|110|95|101|15.8|-9.1|5.3|78
    eskimocat|5.4|4.1|5.8|5.1|100|60|84|81|16.0|-8.0|22|99
    waterways|6.3|4.3|1.5|4.0|168|111|83|121|17.0|-17.0|34|74
    nilhg|5.8|6.1|5.7|5.9|101|115|120|112|15.5|-5.1|12|81
    traecy1|5.6|4.2|4.9|4.9|125|100|80|102|15.2|-6.5|7|80
    MiNdGaM3|5.6|2.9|5.6|4.7|125|81|120|109|16.1|-8.7|34|80
    bb1234567*|4.5|-1.0|5.5|3.0|110|40|140|97|15.4|-17.6|51|80
    Danno*|5.9|2.9|4.1|4.3|150|85|60|98|17.3|-9.6|19|104

    * late entries, 5 pt deduction to total score

    Please see previous posts from me to see some notes on scoring and prize award -- and "ladies and gentlemen, start your engines." (six hours to the start of the race)


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    #63
    thetonynator
    Closed Accounts Posts: 5,234 ✭✭✭thetonynator


    M.T. Cranium wrote: »
    The seasonal values are simply the averages of your three predictions, unweighted (in reality Feb being shorter, these would undergo a slight adjustment, but it's hardly worth the bother).

    What MT means here, is that he would have done it properly, but because I figured out the averages it naturally wasn't done properly! Now M.T. on the other hand would have put it to about 18 decimal places . . .P


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    #64
    M.T. Cranium
    Registered Users Posts: 14,326 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Not really, I would have done it the same way (did last year too). But the official seasonal values will adjust to length of month. It basically means that February counts a little less than the other two months and it might change some of the second decimal places. For an example in monthly temperatures, 4.67 might fall below 4.65 and round off one decimal lower, that sort of thing .... not significant enough for us to worry about it in this contest.

    I really appreciate having the tables so easy to manipulate for scoring, it saves me a lot of work. Now that I see how to format the tables, I may start using them in the monthly contest too. Not sure if that will be less or more work to set up but for scoring it should be a breeze. Tony, is there a function where you can add up the numbers in every part of a row? That would apply to the scoring function not to the entries.


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    #65
    thetonynator
    Closed Accounts Posts: 5,234 ✭✭✭thetonynator


    M.T. Cranium wrote: »
    Tony, is there a function where you can add up the numbers in every part of a row? That would apply to the scoring function not to the entries.

    There might be, but I'm no expert! I'll google vbulletin software and have a look.


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    #66
    Wild Bill
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 3,129 ✭✭✭Wild Bill


    Golly gosh! If I'd appreciated the knots issue I think I might have gone for a tad less than a max wind speed of 123! :rolleyes:

    123 x 1.87 = a lot of kph

    (work it out for me Sponge)


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    #67
    thetonynator
    Closed Accounts Posts: 5,234 ✭✭✭thetonynator


    Username|DEC IMT|JAN IMT|FEB IMT|SEASON IMT|DEC PRC|JAN PRC|FEB PRC|SEASON PRC|MAX|MIN|SNOW|WIND
    Strasser|5.9|4.5|6.1|5.5|110|91|115|105|17.2|-7.4|20|87
    Rebelbrowser|3.8|2.6|5.6|4.0|95|80|125|100|16.1|-11.6|29|79
    pauldry|6.6|3.7|6.9|5.7|135|99|101|112|17.5|-8.3|17|75
    Iancar29|6.0|4.0|5.0|5.0|90|120|85|98|17.5|-13.0|22|72
    dsmythy|5.3|4.8|5.6|5.2|111|71|137|106|15.4|-8.6|13|67
    nacho libre|5.1|3.9|6.1|5.0|85|125|105|105|15.8|-10.6|25|83
    Mmcd|3.3|1.9|5.4|3.5|85|75|120|93|14.2|-13.7|18|83
    scary|3.5|2.9|5.4|3.9|98|101|85|95|14.4|-11.6|18|79
    flying11|5.1|3.6|4.7|4.5|113|62|85|87|17.1|-9.4|31|76
    Joe Public|5.9|2.7|3.1|3.9|119|79|79|92|14.3|-11.9|22|81
    baraca|2.9|1.7|4.1|2.9|124|75|90|96|15.1|-14.4|51|83
    NIALL D|4.7|2.9|3.5|3.7|110|85|105|100|15.2|-12.7|33|79
    M.T. Cranium|5.2|1.5|6.3|4.3|110|80|70|87|16.0|-18.0|39.4|82
    Rougies|4.4|1.1|5.9|3.8|104|82|85|90|15.8|-16.2|41.8|69
    WolfeIRE|4.9|3.1|4.5|4.2|120|105|95|107|15.0|-17.6|23|79
    redsunset|3.0|0.5|4.9|2.8|80|90|110|93|17.0|-17.8|100|75
    200motels|5.7|4.7|6.3|5.6|146|139|133|139|16.4|-10.5|12|76
    BLIZZARD7|4.9|-0.5|2.4|2.3|98|150|85|111|14.5|-19.0|140|83
    Deep Easterly|4.9|5.3|2.1|4.1|180|240|30|150|15.8|-10.6|34|96
    Wild Bill|5.5|4.2|5.1|4.9|100|105|80|95|16.3|-6.8|8|123
    thetonynator|4.0|1.4|5.1|3.5|90|76|91|86|15.9|-7.2|24|77
    Harps|4.6|3.4|5.3|4.4|110|75|120|102|15.4|-8.5|17|80
    homolumo|5.0|1.7|6.0|4.2|110|85|77|91|15.5|-13.3|9.4|73
    okla|5.0|3.3|4.2|4.2|90|108|80|93|15.5|-10.0|28|75
    snowstreams|5.3|2.5|3.6|3.8|108|85|95|96|16.4|-10.4|33|72
    talkabout|5.9|3.5|3.6|4.3|95|105|104|101|15.4|-9.4|13|68
    jdee99|5.3|2.4|3.1|3.6|112|115|90|106|10.2|-15.6|16|68
    Elmer Blooker|7.2|6.2|5.8|6.4|80|150|120|117|15.8|-5.3|3|72
    oterra|7.5|6.6|6.0|6.7|75|110|120|102|13.7|-12.3|26|78
    Su Campu|5.3|4.9|5.5|5.2|100|95|115|103|13.1|-8.8|9|68
    Sponge Bob|5.5|5.3|5.4|5.4|100|100|100|100|14.7|-11.1|6|69
    karl tyrrell|-0.4|3.5|8.6|3.9|87|94|152|111|14.8|-32.0|74|82
    H2UMrsRobinson|8.1|1.4|4.2|4.6|89|99|109|99|15.6|-15.6|25|78
    cdev|4.1|0.4|4.3|2.9|90|106|115|104|15.5|-17.8|56|79
    kindredspirit|5.5|3.0|5.5|4.7|110|65|95|90|15.8|-7.0|25|75
    John mac|5.3|5.2|5.3|5.3|99|110|95|101|15.8|-9.1|5.3|78
    eskimocat|5.4|4.1|5.8|5.1|100|60|84|81|16.0|-8.0|22|99
    waterways|6.3|4.3|1.5|4.0|168|111|83|121|17.0|-17.0|34|74
    nilhg|5.8|6.1|5.7|5.9|101|115|120|112|15.5|-5.1|12|81
    traecy1|5.6|4.2|4.9|4.9|125|100|80|102|15.2|-6.5|7|80
    MiNdGaM3|5.6|2.9|5.6|4.7|125|81|120|109|16.1|-8.7|34|80
    bb1234567*|4.5|-1.0|5.5|3.0|110|40|140|97|15.4|-17.6|51|80
    Danno*|5.9|2.9|4.1|4.3|150|85|60|98|17.3|-9.6|19|104
    Con Sensus|5.1|3.3|5.0|4.5|105.5|98|97.5|100|15.2|-11.76|29.2|79

    Table with Con Sensus included.


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    #68
    Sponge Bob
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 25,234 ✭✭✭✭Sponge Bob


    Please let Wild Bill actually score in KT not in KPH because he freely admitted his abject ignorance and deserves a break! :)

    123 kph = 66.4146868 knots


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    #69
    Wild Bill
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 3,129 ✭✭✭Wild Bill


    Thanks Sponge.

    But I don't need any special pleading - everyone here knows I'm abjectly ignorant :)


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    #70
    M.T. Cranium
    Registered Users Posts: 14,326 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    I would be inclined to allow a change if you're just finding out now about knots and km/hr ... so if contestants agree, thank this post. If you disagree, send me a PM. Tony, hold off changing the number for a while. From what I can see, actual values in the range of 82-90 knots will actually leave you with the same score, so it may not matter if that's the case.

    The way these things normally work, changing down (from 123 to 66) will pretty much guarantee a phenomenal windstorm. :cool:


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    #71
    John mac
    Registered Users Posts: 5,108 ✭✭✭John mac


    Snow reported in Knock and Belmullet
    FirstSnow2011-1.jpg


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    #72
    Joe Public
    Registered Users Posts: 1,777 ✭✭✭Joe Public


    It's only snow in Casement that counts.


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    #73
    Sponge Bob
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 25,234 ✭✭✭✭Sponge Bob


    Wild Bill wrote: »
    But I don't need any special pleading -
    You must either admit same to MT by PM like he said or else hope for an Oíche na Gaoithe Móire redux and of course an outright win. :D


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    #74
    thetonynator
    Closed Accounts Posts: 5,234 ✭✭✭thetonynator


    Joe Public wrote: »
    It's only snow in Casement that counts.

    And only lying snow there too . . .


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    #75
    Wild Bill
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 3,129 ✭✭✭Wild Bill


    Sponge Bob wrote: »
    You must either admit same to MT by PM like he said or else hope for an Oíche na Gaoithe Móire redux and of course an outright win. :D

    I voted for myself! Could lead to disqualification :eek:

    Anyways the temperatures are plummeting and Winter has finally arrived - can a hurricane be far behind?


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    #76
    thetonynator
    Closed Accounts Posts: 5,234 ✭✭✭thetonynator


    Wild Bill wrote: »
    I voted for myself! Could lead to disqualification :eek:

    Anyways the temperatures are plummeting and Winter has finally arrived - can a hurricane be far behind?

    Given that the hurricane season has ended, and we never get actual hurricanes in Ireland, then yes, it could be a long long way behind!


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    #77
    Su Campu
    Closed Accounts Posts: 4,279 ✭✭✭Su Campu


    thetonynator wrote: »
    And only lying snow there too . . .

    No, it's snowfall that counts, i.e. the total accumulations of snow for each fall. Casement report it every hour in the 931** group of the 333 line of the synop. I'll keep an eye on these and keep a running total throughout the season.


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    #78
    thetonynator
    Closed Accounts Posts: 5,234 ✭✭✭thetonynator


    Su Campu wrote: »
    No, it's snowfall that counts, i.e. the total accumulations of snow for each fall. Casement report it every hour in the 931** group of the 333 line of the synop. I'll keep an eye on these and keep a running total throughout the season.

    Sorry, I thought it was measured as snowfall lying at 9 UTC. Obviously got a bit mixed up!


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    #79
    Su Campu
    Closed Accounts Posts: 4,279 ✭✭✭Su Campu


    thetonynator wrote: »
    Sorry, I thought it was measured as snowfall lying at 9 UTC. Obviously got a bit mixed up!

    The term "snowfall" refers to the maximum depth of snow that accumulates in an episode (shower, per hour, etc.), i.e. the depth of newly-fallen fresh snow, excluding what was there already. It is reported in the 931** group of the 333 line of the synop.

    "Snow depth" refers to the total depth of snow (old and new) lying on the ground at a certain time every day, which is actually measured at 06Z in Ireland, but as often as hourly at Casement. It is reported in the 4**** group of the 333 line.


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    #80
    M.T. Cranium
    Registered Users Posts: 14,326 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    I received no objections and noted a reasonable number in agreement, so it would be alright to change Wild Bill's wind forecast.


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    #81
    Sponge Bob
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 25,234 ✭✭✭✭Sponge Bob


    Seeing as nobody changed it yet why don't ye wait till this day next week ....sure it will be a long winter. :D


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    #82
    John mac
    Registered Users Posts: 5,108 ✭✭✭John mac


    With the gust of 151MPH in Scotland Wild bill would have been too low!!!!

    151 mph = 131.215413 knots :D:D


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    #83
    Sponge Bob
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 25,234 ✭✭✭✭Sponge Bob


    John mac wrote: »
    With the gust of 151MPH in Scotland Wild bill would have been too low!!!!
    Up to 165mph now, at the top of a 4000 foot mountain not in an IMT station.

    I'd say it hit 100KT on top of Errigal this morning too but that does not count. Unless Bill is camped up there with his anenometer that is. :D


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    #84
    thetonynator
    Closed Accounts Posts: 5,234 ✭✭✭thetonynator


    If it sticks on 78 gust for the winter I'll be happy enough. :D


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    #85
    Wild Bill
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 3,129 ✭✭✭Wild Bill


    Sponge Bob wrote: »
    Up to 165mph now, at the top of a 4000 foot mountain not in an IMT station.

    I'd say it hit 100KT on top of Errigal this morning too but that does not count. Unless Bill is camped up there with his anenometer that is. :D

    But even if I was Su Campu would be telling me I needed it 10m above the summit :(


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    #86
    Wild Bill
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 3,129 ✭✭✭Wild Bill


    btw, this just might be an appropriate time and place to mention.......


    http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?p=75794393 ;)


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    #87
    Wild Bill
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 3,129 ✭✭✭Wild Bill


    I am, of course, talking about the Wild Bill Second Anemometer Fund :)


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    #88
    M.T. Cranium
    Registered Users Posts: 14,326 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    You might need more than an anemometer at this rate ... by the way, for whatever reason, the met.ie daily summary gives only 68 knots as the maximum at Malin Head yesterday. Will of course check this if necessary with the monthly summary although the way Tuesday's looking, that should be pushed aside.

    Mildest so far that I've noticed is 12.5 C.


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    #89
    Joe Public
    Registered Users Posts: 1,777 ✭✭✭Joe Public


    On the weather forecast last night Evelyn Cusack announced a high gust of 145Km/h at Malin Head for yesterday. That equates to 78.3 Knots or a large multiple of that for Wild Bill:)

    May have been just a typo on the "yesterday's weather" page - 68 instead of 78.


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    #90
    Sponge Bob
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 25,234 ✭✭✭✭Sponge Bob


    http://www.ogimet.com/cgi-bin/gsynres?lang=en&ind=03980&ano=2011&mes=12&day=31&hora=24&min=0&ndays=31

    Still top gust even after this week. 144.1 kph is just under 78 Knots...or whatever Bill is having.


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    #91
    M.T. Cranium
    Registered Users Posts: 14,326 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    The other day, top gusts were reduced again in the daily summary from hourly reports. Just a reminder to all contest participants, the verification of top gust speed will be based only on data shown in the "Monthly Summary" published shortly after each month ends by Met Eireann.

    At the moment the top gust figure in daily reports is 70 knots. But I can't confirm that until the month ends.


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