Second Annual Winter Forecast Contest

snowstreams · 13-11-2011 8:35pm

1. Temp 5.3 , 2.5 , 3.6

2. Precip 108 85% 95%

3. MAX= 16.4, MIN= -10.4

4. SNOW 33cms

5. WIND 72kts

talkabout · 13-11-2011 10:13pm

1. Temp 5.9 , 3.5 , 3.6

2. Precip 95% 105% 105%

3. MAX= 15.4, MIN= -9.4

4. SNOW 13cms

5. WIND 68kts

jdee99 · 15-11-2011 10:09am

Temp 5.3, 2.4, 3.1

Prec 112, 115, 90

Max 10.2 Min -15.6

Snow 16cm

Wind 68kts

Elmer Blooker · 15-11-2011 12:38pm

1. Temp: 7.2 6.2 5.8

2. Precip: 80% 150% 120%

3. max = 15.8c min = -5.3c

4. Snow 3cm

5. Wind 72kts

oterra · 15-11-2011 2:50pm

1. Temp 7.5 6.6 6.0

2. Precip 75% 110% 120%

3. MAX MIN temps 13.7 -12.3

4. SNOW cms 26

5. WIND kts 78

Su Campu · 15-11-2011 7:38pm

1. Temp 5.3 4.9 5.5

2. Precip 100 95 115

3. 13.1 -8.8

4. 9 cms

5. 68 kts

Sponge Bob · 15-11-2011 9:53pm

5.5, 5.3, 5.4
100,100,100
14.7 -11.1
6cm
69kt

thetonynator · 15-11-2011 11:45pm

Sponge Bob wrote: »

5.5, 5.3, 5.4
100,100,100
14.7 -11.1
6cm
69kt

Looking forward to an average winter?! :pac:

Sponge Bob · 16-11-2011 12:01am

Lots and lots and lots of snow and average!

karl tyrrell · 16-11-2011 12:39am

1 TEMP -0.4c 3.5 8.6

2 87% 94% 152%

3 max min 14.8 -32

4 SNOW cms 75

5 WIND 82

So cold

M.T. Cranium · 17-11-2011 12:12am

48 hours left to get into the game without penalty ... then we apply a 5% reduction in points for each day until the thread is locked (for a few weeks) on the morning of the 29th. I don't want to have to deal with any "oh can I count this anyway?" requests although I suppose at 55% off, it wouldn't matter that much. Just to clear up any disputes, the percentage off is absolute not relative, in other words, score 80 and 20% off means 60, not 64 and 47 with 50% off means -3. Just consider that a monkey with a typewriter could probably score better than that today.

(whoops, gave away my main trade secret)

:eek:

H2UMrsRobinson · 17-11-2011 12:20am

1. Temp DEC 8.1 JAN 1.4 FEB 4.2

2. Precip DEC 89% JAN 99% FEB 109%

3. MAX 15.6 MIN -15.6

4. SNOW 25 cms

5. WIND 78 kts

cdev · 17-11-2011 12:40am

1. Temp 4.1 0.4 4.3

2. Precip 90 106 115

3. 15.5 -17.8

4. 56 cms

5. 79 kts

kindredspirit · 17-11-2011 8:23pm

1. 5.5 3.00 5.5

2. 110 65 95

3. +15.8 -7.0

4. 25

5. 75

John mac · 17-11-2011 11:00pm

1. 5.3 5.2 5.3

2. 99 110 95

3. 15.8 -9.1

4. 5.3

5. 78

TheMilkyPirate · 18-11-2011 1:54am

karl tyrrell wrote: »

1 TEMP -0.4c 3.5 8.6

2 87% 94% 152%

3 max min 14.8 -32

4 SNOW cms 75

5 WIND 82

So cold

:eek:

eskimocat · 18-11-2011 3:12pm

My Guestimations!

1. Temp DEC 5.4 JAN 4.1 FEB 5.8

2. Precip DEC 100% JAN 60% FEB 84%

3. MAX 16c MIN temps -8

4. SNOW 22cms

5. WIND 99kts

waterways · 18-11-2011 8:14pm

6.3, 4.3, 1.5, 168, 111, 83, 17.0, -17.0, 34, 74

nilhg · 18-11-2011 11:20pm

1. Temp 5.8 6.1 5.7

2. Precip 101% 115% 120%

3. 15.5C -5.1 temps

4. SNOW 12 cms

5. 81 kts

traecy1 · 19-11-2011 1:33am

TEMP 5.6, 5.2, 4.9
PREC 125, 100, 80
MAX 15.2, MIN -6.5
SNOW 7 cms
WIND 80 kts

MiNdGaM3 · 19-11-2011 1:47am

Wish I had the time to make a proper go at this forecast, but it will have to be pure guess work from me this year.

1. 5.6 2.9 5.6

2. 125% 81% 120%

3. 16.1 -8.7

4. 34

5. 80

M.T. Cranium · 19-11-2011 4:13am

Under contest rules, entries are now subject to 5 point penalty per day ... "day" runs from 0300h to 0300h ... but entries are still welcome.

Editing your existing entry after this time will also be subject to 5 point penalty per day.

bb1234567 · 19-11-2011 2:48pm

1:Dec- 4.5. Jan- -1.0 . Feb- 5.5
2:110%, 40% , 140%
3:15.4, -17.6
4:51cm
5:80 knts.
Think its going to be a cold winter! I think these results should be somewhat accurate going by MT.Craniums winter forecast for a very cold january,avg december and mild february!

Danno · 20-11-2011 3:47am

1. DEC 5.9c JAN 2.9c FEB 4.1c

2. DEC 150% JAN 85% FEB 60%

3. 17.3c Max; -9.6c Min

4. 19cm

5. 104kt

M.T. Cranium · 20-11-2011 5:06am

Okay, thanks for those, now we move into 10-pt penalty time, to 0300h Monday. As stipulated earlier, that's ten points, not ten per cent of your score.

M.T. Cranium · 29-11-2011 2:53am

Contest is now CLOSED to further entries as we have reached the deadline (and the penalty points would reduce your score to zero anyway, in most cases). We have 43 entries and of those, only two would suffer a 5-pt penalty. I had expected a trickle of later entries which was why there was a penalty concept, but I've decided that if one of the two late entries (Danno and bb1234567 if my memory is working) would win without the penalty, then I will double up the 20-euro prize offer and include that person along with whoever wins under the rules. If they win with the penalty then just the one prize. So it won't affect your chances of winning. No second prize as we are well short of 100 entries.

In other news, thetonynator has offered to help out with his nifty self-ranking chart feature, something that will make scoring this (and reading my tables of entries) much, much easier. Thanks in advance, Tony.

We'll have that posted in a few days so you can review the entries. Just a reminder, the seasonal minimum stands at -2.3 C so that's hopefully going to be beaten badly sooner or later, and we go to the bitter end (15 April) for that and snowfall at Casement. Everything else runs 1 Dec to 29 Feb including max wind gust. So we'll have provisional final scoring by early March and I'll then post some idea of how those could change before 15 April.

Good luck to everyone, you have a 1 in 42 chance of winning since my score will not count. (you would still have a 1 in 42 chance, methinks)

Anyone who missed this thread before today and now posts a forecast, please note, contest is closed and we won't review or comment on your forecast, but if you want to join in for fun, be my guest. But no hard feelings if you do better than the official entrants, rules were set out clearly enough.

So, memo to the four winds: BRING IT ON !!!

M.T. Cranium · 29-11-2011 4:55pm

Scoring methods can now be revealed since the number of entrants is set at 43. As mentioned earlier, all scoring this year will be by rank order, not absolute error. For any given category, 10 scoring levels will be assigned from max to min of 0.5 or multiple. The three lowest ranked forecasts in each category will get a zero score. From max down to min, groups of four will be placed in each category. Where there are ties, the scoring will be adjusted to reflect the tied scores. Penalties will be assessed at the end to the total scores (of two late entrants).

Example concerning the ties. Say there are six contestants tied at level 1 (5.0) and three at the next interval then scores would run 5,5,5,5,5,5, 4.5,4.5,4.5 which would leave only three at 4.0 if those were not tied.

Rank order will be determined by absolute error in all cases. The Met-IE monthly summary will be the source for all final data, statements of highest and lowest temperatures in the summary will take precedence over any conflicting daily reports (as per last year). This allows for quality control from appropriate sources that the contest organizers cannot apply. The same would apply to wind gusts. The Casement snowfalls will be totalled by consulting published daily summaries (thanks in advance to SC). The IMT values will match our monthly forecast contest end-of-month values and so will the monthly precip values.

Note that seasonal temperature and precip forecasts are calculated by the scorers from your entries, and errors in this category are the errors in the seasonal averages, you could score a lot more than your individual months combined if your errors compensate. Usually you could expect to score high if your individual months score well.

Persons caught dumping snow at Casement will be disqualified or encouraged .

thetonynator · 29-11-2011 9:19pm

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

Scoring methods can now be revealed since the number of entrants is set at 43. As mentioned earlier, all scoring this year will be by rank order, not absolute error. For any given category, 10 scoring levels will be assigned from max to min of 0.5 or multiple. The three lowest ranked forecasts in each category will get a zero score. From max down to min, groups of four will be placed in each category. Where there are ties, the scoring will be adjusted to reflect the tied scores. Penalties will be assessed at the end to the total scores (of two late entrants).

Example concerning the ties. Say there are six contestants tied at level 1 (5.0) and three at the next interval then scores would run 5,5,5,5,5,5, 4.5,4.5,4.5 which would leave only three at 4.0 if those were not tied.

Rank order will be determined by absolute error in all cases. The Met-IE monthly summary will be the source for all final data, statements of highest and lowest temperatures in the summary will take precedence over any conflicting daily reports (as per last year). This allows for quality control from appropriate sources that the contest organizers cannot apply. The same would apply to wind gusts. The Casement snowfalls will be totalled by consulting published daily summaries (thanks in advance to SC). The IMT values will match our monthly forecast contest end-of-month values and so will the monthly precip values.

Note that seasonal temperature and precip forecasts are calculated by the scorers from your entries, and errors in this category are the errors in the seasonal averages, you could score a lot more than your individual months combined if your errors compensate. Usually you could expect to score high if your individual months score well.

Persons caught dumping snow at Casement will be disqualified or encouraged .

Having read this three times, I think I'll make the table, but you're free to do the scoring. Maybe in 3 months time I'll have gotten the hang of it!!!:pac:

pauldry · 29-11-2011 10:05pm

what are ya on about the tonynator. what could be simpler?

only joking my limited brain got sore reading MTs post so skipped on to yours

thetonynator · 30-11-2011 12:22am

pauldry wrote: »

what are ya on about the tonynator. what could be simpler?

only joking my limited brain got sore reading MTs post so skipped on to yours

My brain doesn't handle anything more than menial tasks . .:P

I'm sure if i concentrated on it I'd manage! Anyway, MT has the table and is going to check it for mistakes, should be up this week sometime.

Second Annual Winter Forecast Contest

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