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For the "If you don't know, vote no" brigade.

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13

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  • Closed Accounts Posts: 148 ✭✭VoidStarNull


    Is it true that the Lisbon Treaty awards 10,000 Euros to every European citizen every year for life?


    No it isn't. But if you haven't informed yourself what's in the treaty, how do you know that you are not shooting yourself and your country in the foot by voting NO?


  • Registered Users Posts: 8,824 ✭✭✭ShooterSF


    Yeah like the you are the millionth visitor to this site banners. Sure they're probably lies but if you don't click you might miss out on millions!!

    And what about those random lotteries we win every so often even though we never entered them... Im off to send my bank details and collect my winnings :)


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 1,398 ✭✭✭Phototoxin


    I've read it. I understand English. I'm still voting no because IN MY *informed* OPINION that is the choice I have made and a referendum is about the opinion of the population as determined by popular vote. I'm sick of the Yes 'side' saying 'people are voting no because they don't understand/are lazy/the no campaign are liars/et cetera' No one there seems to think that one might think differently from them.


  • Registered Users Posts: 68,317 ✭✭✭✭seamus


    ShooterSF wrote: »
    Yeah like the you are the millionth visitor to this site banners. Sure they're probably lies but if you don't click you might miss out on millions!!

    And what about those random lotteries we win every so often even though we never entered them... Im off to send my bank details and collect my winnings :)
    That's not what he was talking about though.

    Think of it more like your employer offering you a new contract. Would you say "no" before reading it, because you're happy with the way things are?
    No one there seems to think that one might think differently from them.
    I think we accept that. The big problem is that the bulk of "no" voters I've spoken to and heard on the radio or online are voting no because they don't understand the treaty or because they have a list of reasons which are 100% incorrect, that they've heard from Libertas and the likes.

    There are of course a good deal of No voters who've read the treaty and the amendments and decided to vote no. Good for them. But they're in a minority.

    I've yet to hear someone say that they're voting yes because they don't understand the treaty or for some spurious misinformed reason. I accept completely that many people will be voting "yes" because their mammy told them to or because Bertie's team says it's the right thing to do.


  • Registered Users Posts: 15,094 ✭✭✭✭javaboy


    Phototoxin wrote: »
    I've read it. I understand English. I'm still voting no because IN MY *informed* OPINION that is the choice I have made and a referendum is about the opinion of the population as determined by popular vote. I'm sick of the Yes 'side' saying 'people are voting no because they don't understand/are lazy/the no campaign are liars/et cetera' No one there seems to think that one might think differently from them.

    Fair play. I voted yes btw but you voted no for the right reasons by the sounds of it.


    In fairness, absolutely everyone I've talked to who is voting no is voting no because they don't understand the treaty and haven't tried. From what I've seen, you're one of the few.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 8,824 ✭✭✭ShooterSF


    seamus wrote: »
    That's not what he was talking about though.

    Think of it more like your employer offering you a new contract. Would you say "no" before reading it, because you're happy with the way things are?

    Actually I can relate to that one if you meant employee I fought withmy own HR over and won because part of a new contract I was offered would have turned me into a general worker able to be made do any task in this business. My co-workers signed out of fear of getting fired. But as I proved when they did nothing you can't legally exclude someone because one person doesn't agree with a new contract because there was already an old one in place. There was nothing per se wrong with the contract it was just worded vaguely and a lot of my co-workers without even noticing lost their right to say "that's not my specific job".

    Realistically there will be plenty of informed no any yes voters and plenty of ill informed ones voting either out of fear of how vague the treaty seems to them or equally out of fear of backlash from other eu states (another less pointed out scare tactic!)


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 619 ✭✭✭O'Morris


    seamus wrote: »
    There are of course a good deal of No voters who've read the treaty and the amendments and decided to vote no. Good for them. But they're in a minority.

    Is there any reason to believe that it's any different on the other side?


  • Registered Users Posts: 68,317 ✭✭✭✭seamus


    O'Morris wrote: »
    Is there any reason to believe that it's any different on the other side?
    The general experience seems to be that if you haven't read the thing, you'll probably vote no. Which implies that there are more uninformed "No"'s than "Yes"'s.

    As I say, most No voters I've interacted with don't seem to be able to back up their vote. Most yes voters do. But perhaps that's because I don't challenge the latter. :)


  • Registered Users Posts: 4,314 ✭✭✭sink


    ShooterSF wrote: »
    Actually I can relate to that one if you meant employee I fought withmy own HR over and won because part of a new contract I was offered would have turned me into a general worker able to be made do any task in this business. My co-workers signed out of fear of getting fired. But as I proved when they did nothing you can't legally exclude someone because one person doesn't agree with a new contract because there was already an old one in place. There was nothing per se wrong with the contract it was just worded vaguely and a lot of my co-workers without even noticing lost their right to say "that's not my specific job".

    Do you realise that that is part of the reason our health service is such a mess.


  • Registered Users Posts: 8,824 ✭✭✭ShooterSF


    sink wrote: »
    Do you realise that that is part of the reason our health service is such a mess.

    Different debate :) I could equally say it has to do with all the extra military spending ;)


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  • Registered Users Posts: 8,449 ✭✭✭Call Me Jimmy


    Phototoxin wrote: »
    I've read it. I understand English. I'm still voting no because IN MY *informed* OPINION that is the choice I have made and a referendum is about the opinion of the population as determined by popular vote.

    Well to be fair, your reason for voting no amounted to because it "is the choice I have made and a referndum is about the opinion of the population as determined by popular vote". After reading information about it you are voting no because of that?


  • Registered Users Posts: 15,094 ✭✭✭✭javaboy


    Well to be fair, your reason for voting no amounted to because it "is the choice I have made and a referndum is about the opinion of the population as determined by popular vote". After reading information about it you are voting no because of that?

    That's not fair really. Phototoxin said they read the treaty and understood it and based on that they decided to vote no.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 36 diydan


    Just a quick question.

    If the Treaty requires ratification by each and every country in the EU, and considering that France & Holland have already voted No, why all the fuss?

    If a Yes vote is not passed the first time round, will we be asked to vote on it again?


  • Registered Users Posts: 8,449 ✭✭✭Call Me Jimmy


    javaboy wrote:
    That's not fair really. Phototoxin said they read the treaty and understood it and based on that they decided to vote no.


    Well I dunno, would it not be fair to expect that after someone says "I'm voting no because", they give a reason. How is stating that it is the choice he has made a reason? Or stating what a referendum is? I dunno, it just seems odd the way he says it, maybe I misunderstood what he meant.


  • Technology & Internet Moderators Posts: 28,791 Mod ✭✭✭✭oscarBravo


    diydan wrote: »
    If the Treaty requires ratification by each and every country in the EU, and considering that France & Holland have already voted No, why all the fuss?
    They haven't voted No.
    If a Yes vote is not passed the first time round, will we be asked to vote on it again?
    We don't know. Nobody knows.


  • Registered Users Posts: 68,317 ✭✭✭✭seamus


    diydan wrote: »
    If the Treaty requires ratification by each and every country in the EU, and considering that France & Holland have already voted No, why all the fuss?
    Holland & France voted No last year to adopting the constitutional treaty. This is a different treaty.

    We never voted on the constitutional treaty because the French and Dutch had already rejected it.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 36 diydan


    seamus wrote: »
    Holland & France voted No last year to adopting the constitutional treaty. This is a different treaty.

    We never voted on the constitutional treaty because the French and Dutch had already rejected it.


    Thanks for clearing that up.

    But again, if the Treaty requires a Yes vote from each and every member state, would you agree that the Yes camp, at European level, have a very poor chance of victory. Isn't it similar to an acumulator bet in Paddy Powers.

    For the record, I haven't voted yet but would consider a yes vote, simply because we wouldn't be where we are today without the help of the ECC/ EU.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 3,762 ✭✭✭turgon


    seamus wrote: »
    Holland & France voted No last year to adopting the constitutional treaty. This is a different treaty.

    Yes, but is it not the educated opinion of those who drafted the treaty that the two are 95% the same?


  • Technology & Internet Moderators Posts: 28,791 Mod ✭✭✭✭oscarBravo


    turgon wrote: »
    Yes, but is it not the educated opinion of those who drafted the treaty that the two are 95% the same?
    I would have thought it blindingly obvious, but "95% the same" == "different".


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 3,762 ✭✭✭turgon


    oscarBravo wrote: »
    I would have thought it blindingly obvious, but "95% the same" == "different".

    Well consider that if 55% of people vote Yes today = whole country votes yes.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 68,317 ✭✭✭✭seamus


    It is. Still makes it a different treaty. It also has a very different implication - this treaty will not be adopted as a European constitution.
    But again, if the Treaty requires a Yes vote from each and every member state, would you agree that the Yes camp, at European level, have a very poor chance of victory. Isn't it similar to an acumulator bet in Paddy Powers.
    Not entirely. As someone mentioned on another thread, the EU doesn't come up with random suggestions and then just throw them out there to see what the member states think. This treaty involved negotiation from all of the member states and the document that was received is the document that all of those member states could reach a consensus on.
    So it's expected that if a member state is relatively in agreement with the document that was produced, they should be able to convince their parliaments to roll with it.

    It's because we have a referendum, that the voters have to be convinced from scratch - the voters didn't see the negotiations that took place and the issues that were discussed, so they're coming from a massive deficit of information.


  • Registered Users Posts: 8,449 ✭✭✭Call Me Jimmy


    Just because they are both percentages doesn't mean you can compare the way a referendum works and the contents of a treaty while maintaining any credibility.
    You're trying to use the fact that a majority carrying a decision in a referendum proves that 95% is the same as 100% similarity between the treaty and constitution.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 3,762 ✭✭✭turgon


    No I am simply stating that the Lisbon Treaty is mostly the same as the Constitution. So for every person that voted no to the constitution, 95% were voting No because of measures that are currently in Lisbon. At least that would seem to be a reasonable statement.


  • Technology & Internet Moderators Posts: 28,791 Mod ✭✭✭✭oscarBravo


    turgon wrote: »
    At least that would seem to be a reasonable statement.
    It would be, if the reasons for voting "no" were distributed across the entire Constitution treaty according to a statistically normal bell-curve, assuming that the only reasons for the "no" vote were valid reasons based on the content of the treaty.

    Unless you can demonstrate that this is the case, I don't think relying on probability distributions is reasonable at all, no.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 3,762 ✭✭✭turgon


    Well what other way could you possibly gauge it??


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,030 ✭✭✭heyjude


    seamus wrote: »
    The general experience seems to be that if you haven't read the thing, you'll probably vote no. Which implies that there are more uninformed "No"'s than "Yes"'s.

    As I say, most No voters I've interacted with don't seem to be able to back up their vote. Most yes voters do. But perhaps that's because I don't challenge the latter. :)

    The reason why this is "the general experience" is that many people who intend to vote YES do not seem to believe that there is any rational reason why anyone should think differently to them by voting NO, so if they meet someone who intends to vote NO they launch into an interrogation as to why and won't accept as valid whatever reasons are given. However, as you say, if someone says they intend to vote YES, then there are no questions, obviously that person fully understands every line of the treaty, has read it from cover to cover and has reached the only obvious decision. :rolleyes:

    YES voters seem to be able to get away with general explanations for their voting choice, such as "Europe has been good for us", "the other countries have agreed to it too", "all the main political parties support it" and "it will improve the efficiency of the EU".

    The counter argument might say that past performance is no guarantee of future performance(i.e. just because something has been good to us in the past doesn't mean that has to be true in the future), I don't worry about what other countries are doing as they have to decide for themselves(just because something is right for Greece or Portugal doesn't automatically make it right for us), the main political parties have made careers out of lying to the electorate and also have a history of mismanagement and poor decision making, so they aren't necessarily the best judges of what is right and finally if I wanted to improve the efficiency of the EU I would cut a few thousand civil servants from the bureaucracy that runs the EU and cut several thousand pages from all the rules, regulations etc that the EU has produced and continues to produce annually. If we want increased efficiency, then you cut the bloated bureaucracy not add to it and reducing a few EU commissioners won't put a dent in EU inefficiency.


  • Technology & Internet Moderators Posts: 28,791 Mod ✭✭✭✭oscarBravo


    turgon wrote: »
    Well what other way could you possibly gauge it??
    Well, you could always have the governments of the two countries that rejected the original treaty take the concerns that were expressed by their people back to the negotiating table, and negotiate a new treaty that specifically addresses those particular concerns.

    But maybe that's just crazy talk.


  • Registered Users Posts: 68,317 ✭✭✭✭seamus


    heyjude wrote: »
    If we want increased efficiency, then you cut the bloated bureaucracy not add to it and reducing a few EU commissioners won't put a dent in EU inefficiency.
    So you've clearly read it then?


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 3,762 ✭✭✭turgon


    And who is the judge of whether their issues have been dealt with? Its great and all that we can give out, but you are saying then that we are not the judges of whether what we have given out about has been fixed, rather the people that have attempted the fixing (in the way they want). This doesn't make sense. If I give out that a street lamp is broken, I will see for myself that is is back on again. I would not merely take the word of the politician I asked to get it fixed.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 8,449 ✭✭✭Call Me Jimmy


    turgon wrote: »
    Well what other way could you possibly gauge it??


    1. The EU shall harmonize taxes.
    2. The EU shall enslave you.

    And now one that is 95% the same as above

    1. The EU shall harmonize taxes.
    2. The EU shall never enslave you.

    So you see there can be big differences in that 5%.


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