Advertisement
If you have a new account but are having problems posting or verifying your account, please email us on hello@boards.ie for help. Thanks :)
Hello all! Please ensure that you are posting a new thread or question in the appropriate forum. The Feedback forum is overwhelmed with questions that are having to be moved elsewhere. If you need help to verify your account contact hello@boards.ie

Australian Economy Thread

245

Comments

  • Registered Users Posts: 899 ✭✭✭sin_city


    I'm undecided on whether I'm going to live here or Ireland.

    I don't think property houses in Ireland will go down a lot more in the next few years and for Australia even a 5% drop would cost me a lot if I were to buy now and sell in 3 years.

    Renting in the meantime is a much safer option.

    For me, the smart money is in physical silver and in mining and agriculture shares to a lesser extent.

    I want to have the option of working here (so I'll try to get sorted with the passport) in the future as I think Australia has a very bright future.

    Low population, educated, large agriculture and resource sectors.

    The global finance sector is in a bubble and will pop sometime in this decade in my opinion so I would stay clear of any exposure to anything finance related.

    A large mortgage is just a strangle hold on other opportunities for me.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 5,092 ✭✭✭catbear


    @Sincity

    Well best of luck with that. Australia is crops and rocks!


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 5,092 ✭✭✭catbear


    Reserve Bank of Australia latest stats, I thought Agriculture was bigger than that!

    gjCUGs0.png


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 5,092 ✭✭✭catbear


    Demographia 2014 survey classes all Australian property markets as either seriously or severely unaffordable.
    Yh8P3Q3.png

    Affordability is based on three times average income.


  • Registered Users Posts: 812 ✭✭✭rightyabe


    hey catbear is there any were you could get Industry share of output for each state? Id be intrested to see how each state fair.


  • Advertisement
  • Closed Accounts Posts: 5,092 ✭✭✭catbear


    You might have to do trail state by state government, the RBA stats are mostly national. If I find one I'll put it up. Any particular sector and state in mind?


  • Registered Users Posts: 7,811 ✭✭✭Tigerandahalf


    catbear wrote: »
    Reserve Bank of Australia latest stats, I thought Agriculture was bigger than that!

    gjCUGs0.png

    That is an interesting graph. It sums up pretty much what has been said on this thread. Manufacturing like all the developed countries has been on a major decline since the turn of the millenium. Construction and multinationals kept Ire going. Mining and construction for Oz. Pity the graph doesnt give figures on tourism. Not surprising that agriculture would be in decline as higher input costs and the higher oz dollar would weaken exports.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 5,092 ✭✭✭catbear


    When adjusted for inflation Australian property is still down on its previous peak.

    Chart-31.jpg
    Across each individual capital city market, inflation adjusted home values remain below their previous peak. This includes Sydney and Perth where unadjusted figures show values are 10.9% and 3.6% higher than their previous peak respectively. When adjusted for inflation, values across these two cities are currently -0.1% lower than their previous peak and Perth values are -8.9% lower.
    http://blog.rpdata.com/2014/01/inflation-surprisingly-strong-home-values-adjusted-inflation-still-previous-peak/

    Not exactly the store of wealth it's made out to be.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 5,092 ✭✭✭catbear


    The yield on Spain's 10-year bond is currently around 3.7 per cent, compared with a yield of 4.1 per cent for Australian 10-year bonds. In early November 2013, the Spanish bond yield fell below its Australian counterpart for the first time since mid-2011. In contrast, the Spanish bond yield rose to 7.5 per cent in July 2012, amid concerns that the nation would default on its debt repayments. That concern fuelled demand for Australian bonds, which have now fallen out of favour.
    Article in yesterdays AFR, very interesting read. Still behind paywall.

    Looks like Australia's safe haven status means less every day.


  • Registered Users Posts: 951 ✭✭✭andrewdeerpark


    catbear wrote: »
    When adjusted for inflation Australian property is still down on its previous peak.

    Chart-31.jpg


    http://blog.rpdata.com/2014/01/inflation-surprisingly-strong-home-values-adjusted-inflation-still-previous-peak/

    Not exactly the store of wealth it's made out to be.

    Keep believing it lads, no bust on the way we tried that in 2007-2008 even wheeled out banking economists like Dan McLoughlin (put him on the main evening news!) to tell us it was all right worst case was a "soft landing" (does not exist in economics).


  • Advertisement
  • Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 1,289 ✭✭✭sawdoubters




  • Registered Users Posts: 692 ✭✭✭res ipsa


    Gardner wrote: »

    Harry was saying that 2 yrs ago when last here. One day he might be right. Stopped clocks & all that.


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,984 ✭✭✭Slideways


    I've been asked by several Aussies when was I buying a house now that I am a PR. No thanks lads, one house in negative equity is enough for me..


    They just dont seem to get it, when I tell them how things went so pear shaped at home they just say that we didn't have mining etc. IMO they are every bit as reliant on one keystone. If/when China stops buying Australias commodities the whole of WA will be fecked


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,280 ✭✭✭commited


    Our place is currently cheaper to rent than pay the interest on a mortgage so it's a bit of a no-brainer for me - never mind maintenance, strata fees etc. No ta, smells too much like 2007 in Ireland.


  • Registered Users Posts: 502 ✭✭✭ifeelill


    mandrake04 wrote: »
    They could

    (a) Find a better paying occupation.
    (b) Buy a house in a cheaper area.
    (c) Marry an Australian whose family owns a few houses.


    You forgot (d) Live out of a kombi van :pac::pac:


  • Registered Users Posts: 4,435 ✭✭✭mandrake04


    ifeelill wrote: »
    You forgot (d) Live out of a kombi van :pac::pac:

    Kombi van is not really a home unless your are some sort of Gypsy.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 5,092 ✭✭✭catbear


    Interesting graphs from Macrobusiness
    5UCMc6Q.png

    From another thought provoking piece
    Even more supply is coming, with 41,400 high rise apartments approved last year, a 30 per cent increase on 2012.

    The surge is driven by Asian and local developers and is being encouraged by state governments, low interest rates, and changing demographics. Offshore investors and local self-managed superannuation funds have helped to prop-up demand but experts are now warning investors to keep clear.

    “We are beginning to see high-rise ghost towns,” said Christopher Koren, a director of Morrell & Koren, a buyers’ advocate, former auctioneer and 30-year veteran of the property market.


  • Registered Users Posts: 402 ✭✭Cooperspale


    Interesting Catbear. In the local paper today the Feed Melbourne Appeal is looking for cash donations. Apartments are still going up all over the place and I have no idea how they are filling them all, I guess they aren't.
    A pal who bought a small investment apartment in Hawthorn 6years ago recently told me that it's hardly worth 65% of what they'd paid for it! gulp.


  • Advertisement
  • Closed Accounts Posts: 5,092 ✭✭✭catbear


    When I arrived in Perth in 2011 the rental market was extremely tight, the carpark in my apartment complex was full. Now it's only the odd time it might be half full.

    I was talking with my EA during the last rental inspection (don't get me started on the quarterly invasion of privacy) and she mused the increase in empty apartments were people moving onto ownership. She's English and when I asked if she was buying she said she wasn't as it felt too much like the UK five years ago.

    What I don't get is the rental price, supply has shot up in Perth in the last year, it tripled in the CBD yet the rental prices have barely budged. I guess it might be a lagging factor but there's definitely room for negotiation where there wasn't before.

    At the top end of the market I looked at the same developments being flogged constantly for the last two years. There were plenty of units before the mining slowdown that weren't on the rental market.


  • Registered Users Posts: 899 ✭✭✭sin_city


    catbear wrote: »
    Interesting graphs from Macrobusiness
    5UCMc6Q.png

    From another thought provoking piece

    I think most of the Chinese working on the sites prefer poverty in Australia to average income there.

    As long as large numbers of people are moving to Australia, many with little English, I still think the term "poverty" no matter how relative it be is the wrong word to use.

    Australia with the exception of New Zealand is the best performing Western style economy


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 5,092 ✭✭✭catbear


    "Investment property is a healthy addiction".


    Another shoe shine moment.


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,625 ✭✭✭AngryHippie


    catbear wrote: »
    "Investment property is a healthy addiction".Ordinary mum in debt way over her head, who is talking up the property market in the hopes that it stays inflated long enough to flog off for a quick buck


    Another shoe shine moment.

    Yes, it gets more like IRL circa 2007 every day.
    Stupid people racking up stupid debts, in the hope of making profits the banks will never let them have.

    When will people understand that it is only worth buying a property if you are going to A) live in it or B) Establish a business in it.
    pretending that property ownership on an achievable level is a "business" went out the window a long time ago. Somehow estate agent's keep convincing people though.

    Madness. The other shoe is about to drop I think. It might have just slowed if the currency hadn't buoyed again. BP axing a few thousand in BNE next year and I don't think they'll find alternatives in Surat for while to come.

    Not a good time to borrow a heap of money for a house or apartment.:eek:


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 5,092 ✭✭✭catbear


    Ironically I know people like her in Ireland who ended up retained by the banks to maintain their now repossessed property portfolios.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 5,092 ✭✭✭catbear


    Interesting graph from Macrobusiness today showing projected decline in mining investment ahead as projects are completed. Those LNG projects are massive.

    Capture8.png


  • Registered Users Posts: 899 ✭✭✭sin_city


    I can't find that report...If it saying the boom will collapse because commodity prices will go down?

    I disagree big time with that considering all the money printing going on.

    Would love a link to the report


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 5,092 ✭✭✭catbear


    Here's that piece that the graph is taken from.

    The vampire squid suggests buying into miners right now but are they on the other side of the deal too?


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 5,092 ✭✭✭catbear


    Following on from the recent BHP 20% workforce reduction...
    ANZ senior economist corporate and commercial Justin Fabo said he expected 50,000 to 75,000 high-paid resources-related jobs to be shed across the economy during the next couple of years, creating a headwind to overall employment growth.
    http://www.macrobusiness.com.au/2014/07/75k-mining-job-to-disappear/

    No real surprise but the shockwaves are spreading in Perth.


  • Advertisement
  • Registered Users Posts: 539 ✭✭✭In Exile


    commited wrote: »
    Our place is currently cheaper to rent than pay the interest on a mortgage so it's a bit of a no-brainer for me - never mind maintenance, strata fees etc. No ta, smells too much like 2007 in Ireland.

    I know it's an old quote but it couldn't be more true.

    We were blessed about a year ago when we managed to pick up a 3 bed unit/house in Moonee Ponds for under $400.

    House is in a brilliant location and well maintained so we decided to see if they were willing to sell. Between a mortgage, body corp and everything else excluding essential bills, our monthly outlay would go from 1700 a month to about 4500.

    I don't want to move out further, where even though it's affordable, it's not worth it when travel costs are taken into account.

    Buying a 3 bed semi in Limerick and continue renting here would work out cheaper, and if I managed to be able to rent out the place at home, I'd be able to clear the mortgage in less than 8 years.


Advertisement