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MrJoeSoap's NHL Log

  • 15-01-2012 4:29pm
    #1
    MrJoeSoap
    Registered Users Posts: 15,117 ✭✭✭✭


    Hi all,

    First time I've done something like this, so go easy on me! It's not for big money, but there will (hopefully) be daily bets on the regular season matches which run up until April 7th. I've put in an awful lot of research over the past 6-8 weeks, at least an hour of analysing stats most days. All of the bets placed will be based on the mountains of excel spreadsheets I've built up.

    I won't go into too much detail as to how I make the picks just yet. But overall, on my practice log since December 17th, I've had 51 winners from 63 bets. Imagining a starting balance of €100, and using only stakes of €20, I would be up to €431.33 by now. All bets are being placed on the Money Line market (which includes overtime/shootouts) on Betfair.

    So, having completely cursed myself, here I go...
    Tagged:


Comments

  • #2
    MrJoeSoap
    Registered Users Posts: 15,117 ✭✭✭✭MrJoeSoap


    Morning Balance: €20.21

    Todays Bets:

    Anaheim Ducks @ Vancouver Canucks (€5 at 1.45)
    New York Rangers @ Montreal Canadiens (€5 at 1.78)
    Carolina Hurricanes @ Washington Capitals (€5 at 1.45)


  • #3
    Killed
    Registered Users Posts: 109 ✭✭Killed


    Best of luck, will be looking in :)


  • #4
    MrJoeSoap
    Registered Users Posts: 15,117 ✭✭✭✭MrJoeSoap


    First losing day this year and it's the day when I post my selections to the world. Hmmm. Pretty surprising defeats for the Rangers (3rd best away form in the league vs worst home form) and the Canucks. But the show must go on. Really need three winners today.

    Morning Balance: €12.35

    Todays Bets:

    Winnipeg Jets @ Ottawa Senators (€4 at 1.6)
    Buffalo Sabres @ Detroit Red Wings (€4 at 1.45)
    Dallas Stars @ St. Louis Blues (€4 at 1.54)


  • #5
    MrJoeSoap
    Registered Users Posts: 15,117 ✭✭✭✭MrJoeSoap


    Another (albeit small) loss last night leads me to six bets tonight. Need five for a profit.

    Morning Balance: €12.11

    Todays Bets:

    Winnipeg Jets @ New Jersey Devils (€2 at 1.58)
    Carolina Hurricanes @ Pittsburgh Penguins (€2 at 1.5)
    Minnesota Wild @ Philadelphia Flyers (€2 at 1.49)
    New York Islanders @ Washington Capitals (€2 at 1.57)
    Calgary Flames @ San Jose Sharks (€2 at 1.53)
    Boston Bruins @ Tampa Bay Lightning (€2 at 1.58)


  • #6
    MrJoeSoap
    Registered Users Posts: 15,117 ✭✭✭✭MrJoeSoap


    Four out of six last night, this really isn't proving worth the effort but I'll plug on til I'm broke!

    Morning Balance: €12.10

    Todays Bets:

    Buffalo Sabres @ Chicago Blackhawks (€6 at 1.47)


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  • #7
    Brussels Sprout
    Registered Users Posts: 6,465 ✭✭✭Brussels Sprout


    A 100% day-the tide has turned!


  • #8
    MrJoeSoap
    Registered Users Posts: 15,117 ✭✭✭✭MrJoeSoap


    Brussels Sprout wrote: »
    A 100% day-the tide has turned!

    I won't be quitting the day job any time soon. If I'd started this thread a month ago I'd be flying... :(

    Sure I'll keep going and see where I end up!


  • #9
    Brussels Sprout
    Registered Users Posts: 6,465 ✭✭✭Brussels Sprout


    MrJoeSoap wrote: »
    I won't be quitting the day job any time soon. If I'd started this thread a month ago I'd be flying... :(

    Sure I'll keep going and see where I end up!

    It's all about the sample size. Even with the best system in the world you're still at the mercy of short-term variance especially when you're backing odds-on favourites.


  • #10
    MrJoeSoap
    Registered Users Posts: 15,117 ✭✭✭✭MrJoeSoap


    Brussels Sprout wrote: »
    It's all about the sample size. Even with the best system in the world you're still at the mercy of short-term variance especially when you're backing odds-on favourites.

    Its very much a work in progress, and I was always just using this season to build upon for next season. Will post more details over the weekend if I get a chance. I'm just playing with the €20 I had in my account to try and make it feel a bit more real, its all well and good throwing out Excel spreadsheets but putting bets on (albeit small ones) can make you concentrate more on what you're doing, I find.

    Basically I've used this seasons record for each team to calculate my own "probability" that they will win the next match. If I reckon the probability for a home team is greater than 55% I'll bet on that, regardless of the odds. The sample size on home wins so far is 74 games, with 59 winners and 15 losses. The average probability for the bets I've made has been 61.59%. The average odds of those bets has been 1.58 or 63.19% probability.

    Will try and explain better later in the week.


  • #11
    MrJoeSoap
    Registered Users Posts: 15,117 ✭✭✭✭MrJoeSoap


    Finally a winning night, lets see how these six do tonight. Ideally need five or six to win.

    Morning Balance: €14.78

    Todays Bets:

    Minnesota Wild @ Toronto Maple Leafs (€2 at 1.61)
    Pittsburgh Penguins @ New York Rangers (€2 at 1.74)
    New York Islanders @ Philadelphia Flyers (€2 at 1.51)
    Edmonton Oilers @ St. Louis Blues (€2 at 1.37)
    Buffalo Sabres @ Winnipeg Jets (€2 at 1.68)
    Calgary Flames @ Los Angeles Kings (€2 at 1.60)


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  • #12
    JONJO THE MISER
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 12,333 ✭✭✭✭JONJO THE MISER


    Great log was thinking of setting up one myself for the N.H.L


  • #13
    MrJoeSoap
    Registered Users Posts: 15,117 ✭✭✭✭MrJoeSoap


    Only 3 out of 6 last night, not good enough. :mad:

    Of the 11 games played last night, 6 finished 4-1, very unusual!

    Morning Balance: €11.91

    Todays Bets:

    Flordia Panthers @ Chicago Blackhawks (€4 at 1.5)
    Tampa Bay Lightning @ Dallas Stars (€4 at 1.73)


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