Official Free Money Betting Superthread 2011/12

thomond2006 · 13-04-2012 9:36pm

thomond2006 wrote: »

The podcast won't be up in time, just to let you know that our Bet of the Week is Toulouse +2 away to Perpignan tonight.

and that didn't come in, oh well

duckysauce · 13-04-2012 9:38pm

thomond2006 wrote: »

and that didn't come in, oh well

first one in a while that didn't.

try last secs to perp aswell

Judgement Day · 13-04-2012 9:53pm

duckysauce wrote: »

make sure to post your 6 grand winnings slip after the game

€32 in profit after Guinness and I haven't enjoyed watching Leinster win so much in years. Devin Toner - the man we all love to hate, down in the Antique, now that Tony Buckley has gone to Sale - capped it all with the last minute try!

CatFromHue · 13-04-2012 9:54pm

Ospreys at -5 for tomorrows game against Cardiff.

Cardiff Blues: 15 Leigh Halfpenny, 14 Alex Cuthbert, 13 Gavin Evans, 12 Dafydd Hewitt, 11 Harry Robinson, 10 Ceri Sweeney, 9 Lloyd Williams, 8 Luke Hamilton, 7 Martyn Williams, 6 Michael Paterson, 5 James Down, 4 Bradley Davies (c), 3 Sam Hobbs, 2 Marc Breeze, 1 John Yapp.
Replacements: 16 Kristian Dacey, 17 Nathan Trevett, 18 Ryan Harford, 19 Josh Navidi, 20 Maama Molitika, 21 Richie Rees, 22 Dan Parks, 23 Casey Laulala.

Ospreys: 15 Richard Fussell, 14 Hanno Dirksen, 13 Tom Isaacs, 12 Andrew Bishop, 11 Shane Williams, 10 Dan Biggar, 9 Kahn Fotuali'i, 8 Joe Bearman, 7 Justin Tipuric, 6 Ryan Jones, 5 Ian Evans, 4 Alun Wyn Jones (c), 3 Adam Jones, 2 Richard Hibbard, 1 Paul James.
Replacements: 16 Scott Baldwin, 17 Ryan Bevington, 18 Aaron Jarvis, 19 James King, 20 Tom Smith, 21 Rhys Webb, 22 Matthew Morgan, 23 Sonny Parker.

It's a pretty strong Ospreys team who need to win to get a home Semi whereas Cardiff have nothing to play for and are in free fall.

Judgement Day · 13-04-2012 10:26pm

Crusaders vs Stormers at Christchurch. Saturday 14th at 08.35am

How about this for a stat - In their 40 home games against South African opposition, the Crusaders have won 36, lost two and drawn two.

That said, Crusaders are not in their usual form and Stormers are going well. Dan Carter was off the pace in their narrow (2 point) defeat to Bulls away last weekend but it was his first start and full 80 mins since return from injury. I like the handicap -5 for Crusaders and more than 19.5 points in the 1st half - low for a Super 15 game.

Crusaders: 15 Israel Dagg, 14 Sean Maitland, 13 Robbie Fruean, 12 Dan Carter, 11 Zac Guildford, 10 Tom Taylor, 9 Andy Ellis, 8 Kieran Read (c), 7 Matt Todd, 6 George Whitelock, 5 Sam Whitelock, 4 Tom Donnelly, 3 Ben Franks, 2 Corey Flynn, 1 Wyatt Crockett.
Replacements: 16 Quentin MacDonald, 17 Owen Franks, 18 Luke Romano, 19 Luke Whitelock, 20 Willi Heinz, 21 Ryan Crotty, 22 Tom Marshall.

Stormers: 15 Joe Pietersen, 14 Gerhard van den Heever, 13 Juan de Jongh, 12 Jean de Villiers (c), 11 Bryan Habana, 10 Peter Grant, 9 Dewaldt Duvenage, 8 Duane Vermeulen, 7 Rynhardt Elstadt, 6 Siya Kolisi, 5 Andries Bekker, 4 Eben Etzebeth, 3 Brok Harris, 2 Tiaan Liebenberg, 1 Steven Kitshoff.
Replacements: 16 Deon Fourie, 17 Frans Malherbe, 18 De Kock Steenkamp, 19 Nizaam Carr, 20 Louis Schreuder, 21 Burton Francis, 22 Gio Aplon/ JP du Plessis.

beertons · 14-04-2012 10:47am

^Good call JD, they had me going there a bit in the first half.

MungBean · 14-04-2012 3:28pm

Gone with Ulster + 4, Munster -7, Ospreys -5 Treble for later.

My Top 14 bet on all home team wins is 5/7 so far. Just Bayonne -1 and Castres -18 left. Fingers crossed.

emmet02 · 14-04-2012 4:02pm

Calgary Bay

duckysauce · 14-04-2012 4:36pm

emmet02 wrote: »

Calgary Bay

stick to the rugby

irishbucsfan · 14-04-2012 7:47pm

I had Connacht -3 and Leinster -12 in a double just come in. Nice wan

MungBean · 14-04-2012 9:07pm

MungBean wrote: »

My Top 14 bet on all home team wins is 5/7 so far. Just Bayonne -1 and Castres -18 left. Fingers crossed.

Bayonne did the job and Castres leading 30-6 @ 52 min with Bordeaux down to 14 men, surely the gods arent cruel enough to take this away from me at this point ?

EDIT: 4 tries in the space of 10 minutes shortly after that post. I hadnt a clue what was goin on over there as I was following on live updates. Ended 44 - 20, another home performance to beat the handicap. Relieved, delighted and feel sick as a dog after it.

CatFromHue · 15-04-2012 1:20pm

What do people think of the Aironi Lanelli game. In theory it's a 5 pointer for Lanelli but Aironi this calendar year have been strong enough at home. Only Leinster denied them the losing bonus point and they've beaten both Connacht and Munster with the other game being a 1 point loss to Dragons.

Lanelli do need the win but also needed a win last week away to Brive were they were massive favourites yet still lost. It was mostly a second choice Brive team too. While in theory Lanelli have it all to play for as Aironi are being wound up their players are in a way playing for their livelihood!

Also no North for Lanelli and rumour on Planet Rugby is that Jon Davies is out too.

PP have Aironi at +8 which could be a good option!

liammur · 15-04-2012 1:46pm

CatFromHue wrote: »

What do people think of the Aironi Lanelli game. In theory it's a 5 pointer for Lanelli but Aironi this calendar year have been strong enough at home. Only Leinster denied them the losing bonus point and they've beaten both Connacht and Munster with the other game being a 1 point loss to Dragons.

Lanelli do need the win but also needed a win last week away to Brive were they were massive favourites yet still lost. It was mostly a second choice Brive team too. While in theory Lanelli have it all to play for as Aironi are being wound up their players are in a way playing for their livelihood!

Also no North for Lanelli and rumour on Planet Rugby is that Jon Davies is out too.

PP have Aironi at +8 which could be a good option!

Do Lanelli need the win? If not, I'd back Aironi.

CatFromHue · 15-04-2012 1:47pm

liammur wrote: »

Do Lanelli need the win? If not, I'd back Aironi.

Lanelli need all 5 points.

CatFromHue · 17-04-2012 9:00pm

The full handicap selections are up on PP for the HEC Semi's.

Ulster are -13 at 9/5. Considering Ulster beat Edinburgh by 22 points both home and away it's hard to just take the game at it's -7 handicap!

PhatPiggins · 17-04-2012 10:30pm

CatFromHue wrote: »

The full handicap selections are up on PP for the HEC Semi's.

Ulster are -13 at 9/5. Considering Ulster beat Edinburgh by 22 points both home and away it's hard to just take the game at it's -7 handicap!

Its knockout stage cup rugby though. I can't see Ulster playing the same type of game as they did in the league and to be honest their league form isn't a true reflection of how good/bad Edinburgh really are.

That said I'm all over the -6 on Ulster

CatFromHue · 17-04-2012 10:57pm

PhatPiggins wrote: »

Its knockout stage cup rugby though. I can't see Ulster playing the same type of game as they did in the league and to be honest their league form isn't a true reflection of how good/bad Edinburgh really are.

That said I'm all over the -6 on Ulster

Yeah the -6 or -7 on PP looks great. Ulsters home game against Leicester could have been termed a knock out game in that if they didn't win they were out. They scored 41 points that night so they are capable of running up a score.

PhatPiggins · 17-04-2012 11:01pm

CatFromHue wrote: »

Yeah the -6 or -7 on PP looks great. Ulsters home game against Leicester could have been termed a knock out game in that if they didn't win they were out. They scored 41 points that night so they are capable of running up a score.

I take your point but the stakes are higher this time and the Tigers didn't look like they cared that night. Ulster are well capable of running up a big score no doubt but if I'm McLaughlin and the team go 10/11 points up you've got to be tempted to play territory and trust your excellent defence.

CatFromHue · 17-04-2012 11:34pm

PhatPiggins wrote: »

I take your point but the stakes are higher this time and the Tigers didn't look like they cared that night. Ulster are well capable of running up a big score no doubt but if I'm McLaughlin and the team go 10/11 points up you've got to be tempted to play territory and trust your excellent defence.

It's hard to know but I don't have too much faith in the Edinburgh team. This will be like a home game for Ulster and so far this season Edinburgh have only won once away from home in the Rabo (Treviso). In fairness they did win away twice in the pool stages.

When you look back through the last few Semi's they're have been some relatively big scores: Northampton 23 USAP 7, Biarritz 18 Munster 7, Leinster 25 Munster 6, Leicester 33 Lanelli 17, and Wasps 30 Northampton 17. So it's not infeasible that there could be 14 point win for a team in the Semi's.

Plus 10 · 18-04-2012 10:59pm

CatFromHue wrote: »

The full handicap selections are up on PP for the HEC Semi's.

Anyone else think Clermont are underrated for their match against Leinster - 10/11 getting 1 pt (with Boyles - was 2 pts last week) - seems good value. Personally I would have Clermont at maybe -3/-4 rather than +1

Clermont second in the French league - game in France - I know Leinster are going well but has to be Clermont for me.

PhatPiggins · 19-04-2012 1:15am

Plus 10 wrote: »

Anyone else think Clermont are underrated for their match against Leinster - 10/11 getting 1 pt (with Boyles - was 2 pts last week) - seems good value. Personally I would have Clermont at maybe -3/-4 rather than +1

Clermont second in the French league - game in France - I know Leinster are going well but has to be Clermont for me.

Jeez I think Leinster at evens are a cracking bet myself. It'll be a belter of a game though

PhatPiggins · 19-04-2012 1:22am

CatFromHue wrote: »

It's hard to know but I don't have too much faith in the Edinburgh team. This will be like a home game for Ulster and so far this season Edinburgh have only won once away from home in the Rabo (Treviso). In fairness they did win away twice in the pool stages.

When you look back through the last few Semi's they're have been some relatively big scores: Northampton 23 USAP 7, Biarritz 18 Munster 7, Leinster 25 Munster 6, Leicester 33 Lanelli 17, and Wasps 30 Northampton 17. So it's not infeasible that there could be 14 point win for a team in the Semi's.

No not at all and Ulster are a good bit better in my book. Its just when you look at Edinburgh in the HC and then at the Pro12, you have to think they've been keeping their powder dry for the HC. Might split the bet 75% on -6 and 25% on -12 (ladbrokes 2/1)

wp_rathead · 19-04-2012 4:29pm

Strong Leinster side at -3 away to Ulster side minus Ferris?
surely that is good value?!

CIARAN_BOYLE · 19-04-2012 4:35pm

wprathead wrote: »

Strong Leinster side at -3 away to Ulster side minus Ferris?
surely that is good value?!

Ulster side minus Ferris, Best and Afoa. Yeah I think you are right.

WeleaseWoderick · 19-04-2012 4:37pm

Like the look of Ulster winning at half time, Leinster at full time at 6/1.

With the respective benches and the likelihood that key players will be taken off, I can see the last 20 mins being all Leinster.

Podge_irl · 19-04-2012 4:40pm

WeleaseWoderick wrote: »

Like the look of Ulster winning at half time, Leinster at full time at 6/1.

With the respective benches and the likelihood that key players will be taken off, I can see the last 20 mins being all Leinster.

I can see the first 40 being mostly Leinster too though.

Juwwi · 19-04-2012 6:53pm

Im pretty sure most people already know about oddschecker but incase one or two dont.

It basically gives you all the odds for the bookies so it saves having to click on each bookies website individualy to compare prices.

http://www.oddschecker.com/rugby-union/club-rugby/rabodirect-pro-12/ulster-v-leinster/handicaps

Leinster 5/6 just to win with skybet.

duckysauce · 19-04-2012 10:49pm

Shane Williams last match for the Ospreys tomorrow night worth chucking a few Euro's on him anytime try scorer. Just watched a short documentary about him fcking class player and sound guy aswell.

Juwwi · 20-04-2012 12:02am

The Ospreys -13 with PP could be a great bet against the Dragons.
Ospreys will be looking for 5 points to keep 2nd place for the play offs
and the Dragons have had a bug in the camp this week and are missing some players.

from bbc site below.

"The Dragons have suffered back-to-back home defeats to Connacht and Treviso , and their preparations for the Ospreys clash have been hit by a sickness bug this week.
Seven players have missed training at the beginning of the week, raising doubts over their availability for Friday.
"I'm hoping they get well enough to play," added Edwards. "They're nowhere near fitness yet. It's a concern."
The Dragons make four changes to their trip to Swansea and have handed 17-year-old Hallam Amos his first PRO12 start at full back in place of Will Harries who went off injured last week. "

http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/0/rugby-union/17752957

Im gona double Leinster -3 and Ospreys -13 and might do a single on Ospreys aswell.

Edit lodged money into skybet and took -2 Leinster and -13 Ospreys incase the lines change any more.

Gracelessly Tom · 20-04-2012 9:35am

Have gone on the h/c double, Ospreys and Leinster. Also went singles on both and have taken Ospreys over 29.5 and Leinster over 19.5.

Anytime tryscorer bets on Shane Williams and Luke Fitz.

Been on a very good run on recent rugby betting, hope it doesn't end tonight!

Official Free Money Betting Superthread 2011/12

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