Thornley

Tox56 · 07-06-2012 4:36pm

How can we forget only a few weeks ago:

The debate as to why this hasn’t been done since the Grand Slam success will rage all the harder now, but remarkable coach though Joe Schmidt is (as well as disproving the theory that nice guys don’t win), it’s decidedly unfair to level the supposed “failure” on Kidney and co.

Does he genuinely believe what he's been writing recently?

molloyjh · 07-06-2012 4:40pm

Tox56 wrote: »

How can we forget only a few weeks ago:

Does he genuinely believe what he's been writing recently?

I love the supposed "failure" bit too. As in it's not really failure and it's not really true anyway. :pac:

irishbucsfan · 07-06-2012 4:46pm

molloyjh wrote: »

In this day and age we should be taking Scotland out as well as Italy in fairness...

Since 01st Jan 2010 our record stands as below. I've grouped the teams into 3 "tiers". 3 is the minnows, 2 is the teams we should expect to beat (Italy, Scotland & Argentina) and 1 is the rest (everyone from the Welsh and English to the Kiwis). The % is our win ratio.

Tier|P|W|L|D|%
1|18|4|13|1|22.22%
2|9|7|2|0|77.78
3|3|3|0|0|100%
Total|30|14|15|1|46.67%

The 4 wins in Tier 1 were 2 against England, 1 against Wales and 1 against Australia. It's clear from that why we're 8th.

Tier P W L D %
1 16 6 10 0 37.50%
2 10 7 3 0 70.00%
3 3 3 0 100%
Total 29 16 45 0 55.17%

Would be EOS' record from 1st Jan 2006 until he resigned. I believe.

Riskymove · 07-06-2012 5:02pm

molloyjh wrote: »

In this day and age we should be taking Scotland out as well as Italy in fairness...

ah go on I am sure you can change the criteria to make it look even worse, lol!!

EOS's record wont actually be that much better

he lost 3 times to ARG for example, he lost to SCO

he never beat France in the 6N

we can all use stats to make things look bad

TonyTonga · 07-06-2012 5:04pm

In fairness the Argentina EOS lost to three times were the third best team in the world at that time.

Tox56 · 07-06-2012 5:06pm

Riskymove wrote: »

ah go on I am sure you can change the criteria to make it look even worse, lol!!

EOS's record wont actually be that much better

he lost 3 times to ARG for example, he lost to SCO

he never beat France in the 6N

we can all use stats to make things look bad

Yeah, and EOS was removed as Ireland coach after his run of results, and he was also treated far differently in the media.

Do we count Italy/Scotland wins equal to wins over England/Australia?

Count them if you wish, but although they are Tier 1 teams, we should certainly be beating them.

Podge_irl · 07-06-2012 5:08pm

Riskymove wrote: »

he lost 3 times to ARG for example, he lost to SCO

He lost to Scotland in a RWC warm-up game, he never lost to them in the 6N

he never beat France in the 6N

Actually he beat them once, the exact same number of times Kidney has.

You can certainly massage stats to make them suit your argument. But this is the worst run of 6N results we've had since the end of the end of the 90s (in fact our worse run with regards number of victories since the 6N started). That is not a "supposed "failure"", its a failure.

GerM · 07-06-2012 5:10pm

Riskymove wrote: »

ah go on I am sure you can change the criteria to make it look even worse, lol!!

EOS's record wont actually be that much better

he lost 3 times to ARG for example, he lost to SCO

he never beat France in the 6N

we can all use stats to make things look bad

We can but there's statistics and then there's very easily skewed statistics like that 2 of those defeats to Argentina were when Ireland left their 17 or 18 first choice players at home to go down there the summer before the WC with an A team.

He also only lost to Scotland in a WC warm up game with an A side.

Or that EOS actually did beat France in the 6N, at the very first attempt, just like DK.

Someone with a bit of knowledge of the game can fairly easily separate the useful statistics from the spin.

molloyjh · 07-06-2012 5:37pm

Riskymove wrote: »

ah go on I am sure you can change the criteria to make it look even worse, lol!!

So you think it's unfair to assume that we should beat Scotland 9 times out of 10 these days? The logic I'm using is quite simple (and remember both Scotland and Italy are outside the top 8). It's that there are teams we should beat every time out of the gate, i.e. the minnows. There are teams we should beat but who are well capable of causing us trouble from time to time, i.e. the Scotlands and the Italys. And then there are teams we should be looking to beat but where it could go either way, i.e. the top 8 sides. It's a reasonable way to split the data.

In fact my split defines exactly why we are 8th and so is probably very reasonable as a result. All the tier 2s and 3s in my list are below us in the rankings and all the teams in tier 1 are the ones ahead of us. With win ratios like those 8th would be about right.

Riskymove wrote: »

EOS's record wont actually be that much better

Exactly. I'm not sure you're getting the point people are making here. No one is saying EOS was a far superior coach. We're saying that there's feck all between them, yet the press (Thornley being a prime example) are treating DK completely differently now to how they treated EOS then.

LuckyLloyd · 07-06-2012 5:59pm

molloyjh wrote: »

Ah come off it. How long can he continue to dine out on the GS - the only single bit of success he has had with the side? The longer he's been coach the worse things have gotten. His overall record is worse than EOS with far greater depth available to him. Not to mention that during the EOS era both England and France were far better than they have been the last few years.

EOS had done very well with the side up until the 2007 RWC - remember the 2007 6Ns? That RWC campaign and the 2008 6Ns were failures which led to us being 8th in the rankings. And he got plenty of grief over that. DK did very well with the side in 2009, but since then has had 3 6Ns failures and 1 RWC failure and we're 8th in the rankings. That is demonstrably worse than EOS. Yet he's immune to any criticism at all.

It is much simpler than win ratios, style of rugby, most efficient use of resources or any of that jazz.

EOS didn't win a grandslam. He didn't win a test match in the southern hemisphere. He did get us knocked out of the world cup in the group stages.

DK did win a grandslam. He did win a test match in the southern hemisphere. And he did get us out of our group in a world cup.

"Demonstrably worse than EOS"?

There are so many valid concerns about the way things have gone the past year or so with DK in charge. Why cheapen the argument with fallacies like that?

Podge_irl · 07-06-2012 6:06pm

EOS got us out of our group in his first RWC too. Demonstrably worse is potentially over egging it but his record over the last 2 years IS worse then EOS's. Even if it was just the same, Thornley got he knives out for Eddie yet is backing Kidney to the hilt. To the point of barely acknowledging there is a problem.

Tox56 · 07-06-2012 6:19pm

LuckyLloyd wrote: »

It is much simpler than win ratios, style of rugby, most efficient use of resources or any of that jazz.

EOS didn't win a grandslam. He didn't win a test match in the southern hemisphere. He did get us knocked out of the world cup in the group stages.

DK did win a grandslam. He did win a test match in the southern hemisphere. And he did get us out of our group in a world cup.

"Demonstrably worse than EOS"?

There are so many valid concerns about the way things have gone the past year or so with DK in charge. Why cheapen the argument with fallacies like that?

We did win test matches in the Southern Hemisphere under Eddie, and as said above, he did get us out of the group stages of the World Cup

TonyTonga · 07-06-2012 6:25pm

Tox56 wrote: »

We did win test matches in the Southern Hemisphere under Eddie, and as said above, he did get us out of the group stages of the World Cup

And when he didn't get us out of the group stages it was when we had France and Argentina in the group, both of whom turned out to be semi finalists.

However Kidney is not as bad as EOS for the simple fact that Kidney, with today's selection, has shown he is willing to experiment and throw young players into the deep end.

EOS was the better coach, but his rigidness in team selections left a lot to be desired.

jm08 · 07-06-2012 6:27pm

Podge_irl wrote: »

EOS got us out of our group in his first RWC too. Demonstrably worse is potentially over egging it but his record over the last 2 years IS worse then EOS's. Even if it was just the same, Thornley got he knives out for Eddie yet is backing Kidney to the hilt. To the point of barely acknowledging there is a problem.

EOS had a fair few players in their prime and not as injury prone. Results were not great in 2005 autumn internationals when POC & BOD were missing either (through injury). Maybe the press have learned since then how important those two players are to Ireland because Ireland had a decent enough 6Ns when they came back.

The other thing as well is that the manner of EOS appointment didn't go down too well with a lot of people and that is why he was so unpopular.

You can compare Kidney & EOS's record when they both have the same no of years to build a team (and even at that, EOS was an assistant when he took over).

irishbucsfan · 07-06-2012 6:27pm

So of Lloyds 3 criticisms of EOS, 2 of them are incorrect? Interesting. Lloyd, are you Gerry Thornley?

molloyjh · 07-06-2012 6:30pm

LuckyLloyd wrote: »

It is much simpler than win ratios, style of rugby, most efficient use of resources or any of that jazz.

EOS didn't win a grandslam. He didn't win a test match in the southern hemisphere. He did get us knocked out of the world cup in the group stages.

DK did win a grandslam. He did win a test match in the southern hemisphere. And he did get us out of our group in a world cup.

"Demonstrably worse than EOS"?

There are so many valid concerns about the way things have gone the past year or so with DK in charge. Why cheapen the argument with fallacies like that?

EOS never had us 3rd twice in a row in the 6Ns. DK has now done it 3 times in a row. EOS never led us to a loss against Scotland in a competitive game. DK did. At home. EOS and DK both achieved the same result in their first RWC. And EOS was unlucky on 2 occasions not lead us to a GS. The year we won it we scraped over the line in a year where we had no injury concerns.

It's not as simple as a win-loss ratio. But a single Grand Slam doesn't override what has gone on since. And a single win against Australia in NZ doesn't either. They weren't at home ffs. This victory against a SH side in the SH is grasping at straws. If we beat them in Australia then maybe it'd be something to talk about. We didn't.

It can be demonstrated using facts that Kidney has been worse than EOS. Not by a whole hell of a lot, but still worse.

LuckyLloyd · 07-06-2012 6:54pm

irishbucsfan wrote: »

So of Lloyds 3 criticisms of EOS, 2 of them are incorrect? Interesting. Lloyd, are you Gerry Thornley?

We beat Australia / NZ / SA away under EOS? When?
We didn't get dumped out on our asses in 2007, really?

LuckyLloyd · 07-06-2012 6:56pm

Man, I would just LOVE if we won on Saturday.

danthefan · 07-06-2012 6:57pm

LuckyLloyd wrote: »

Man, I would just LOVE if we won on Saturday.

Would be sweet alright.

Podge_irl · 07-06-2012 6:57pm

jm08 wrote: »

EOS had a fair few players in their prime and not as injury prone.

That's just nonsense. The only irreplaceable player we have is BOD and one of his best ever seasons was in 09 when he almost single handedly dragged Ireland to the GS. For every great player we lost, we've gained others. Not always in the same position, but Kidney has better props and a better backrow then EOS ever had.

And all this is still missing the point, that whether one was better then the other its a very narrow margin. Ireland were exceptional in the 07 6N, played some spellbinding rugby. It took one poor season for people in the media to want EOS gone. We've now endured 3 fairly middling seasons in the row (all of which had comparatively poor 6N performances) and not a peep.

shuffol · 07-06-2012 6:59pm

jm08 wrote: »

EOS had a fair few players in their prime and not as injury prone. Results were not great in 2005 autumn internationals when POC & BOD were missing either (through injury). Maybe the press have learned since then how important those two players are to Ireland because Ireland had a decent enough 6Ns when they came back.

The other thing as well is that the manner of EOS appointment didn't go down too well with a lot of people and that is why he was so unpopular.

You can compare Kidney & EOS's record when they both have the same no of years to build a team (and even at that, EOS was an assistant when he took over).

Massive difference between depth of the squad then and now. Scrum was a massive issue for pretty much all of EOS reign. I remember an array of backline moves off scrums we had in the 07 6N but couldn't really use them as our scrum was constantly under pressure. We'd no depth at SH until Reddan and Boss emerged in 07 and had no depth at outhalf. We were pretty limited in the back 3 at times too. Anthony Horgan starting against the AB's in 05 being an example.

Tox56 · 07-06-2012 6:59pm

LuckyLloyd wrote: »

Man, I would just LOVE if we won on Saturday.

Are you implying that would banish away all the flaws and problems in gameplan and selection over the last 3 years?

mar-z · 07-06-2012 7:03pm

LuckyLloyd wrote: »

We beat Australia / NZ / SA away under EOS?

We didn't beat them away under DK either so that is moot.

We beat them in a neutral ground and being in the stadium I can say that the crowd was very hostile to Australia.

They have very similar records overall. Kidney got the grandslam but if that last kick from Wales went over he would definitely be considered to have a worse record imo. It didn't so fair play on a great achievement and he will always be remembered as a grandlam winning manager. His problem is that despite laws/ref interpretations changing since then, DK's tactics haven't.

07-06-2012 7:07pm

shuffol wrote: »

Massive difference between depth of the squad then and now. Scrum was a massive issue for pretty much all of EOS reign. I remember an array of backline moves off scrums we had in the 07 6N but couldn't really use them as our scrum was constantly under pressure. We'd no depth at SH until Reddan and Boss emerged in 07 and had no depth at outhalf. We were pretty limited in the back 3 at times too. Anthony Horgan starting against the AB's in 05 being an example.

careful here - We had no depth because EOS didn't develop any depth.

Again though, the only comparison that is being made between EOS and Kidney is the difference of the media's reaction to both of their form turning to ****e.

EOS was out the door (rightfully so imo) after his failings were made apparent.

Kidney still gets an armchair ride for what we've been shown to see is an even worse run of results than EOS left after, and also for several similar failings (squad depth problems where there certainly shouldn't be any).

Podge_irl · 07-06-2012 7:07pm

LuckyLloyd wrote: »

Man, I would just LOVE if we won on Saturday.

So would I.

LuckyLloyd · 07-06-2012 7:12pm

Tox56 wrote: »

Are you implying that would banish away all the flaws and problems in gameplan and selection over the last 3 years?

I am implying that, irrespective of whatever else, he would have led us to victory over New Zealand. I have no idea what beating New Zealand would feel like. Just like I had no idea of what winning a GS or beating one of the big three in a world cup felt like. Thanks to DK, I now do.

Podge_irl · 07-06-2012 7:21pm

LuckyLloyd wrote: »

I am implying that, irrespective of whatever else, he would have led us to victory over New Zealand. I have no idea what beating New Zealand would feel like. Just like I had no idea of what winning a GS or beating one of the big three in a world cup felt like. Thanks to DK, I now do.

I had no idea what losing to Scotland at home in the 6N was like. Thanks to DK, I now do.

This big issue here is that Thornley refuses to even admit there might be a problem. His writing reads like we're all overreacting and everything is hunky dory. His article post-6N was pathetic - there are thin lines between success and failure and on another day we could have come second. People are unfair on Kidney. People blame him for Ireland's supposed problems (again, pretending like the problems don't even exist, and if they did its certainly not Kidney's fault).

danthefan · 07-06-2012 7:28pm

Podge_irl wrote: »

I had no idea what losing to Scotland at home in the 6N was like. Thanks to DK, I now do.

This big issue here is that Thornley refuses to even admit there might be a problem. His writing reads like we're all overreacting and everything is hunky dory. His article post-6N was pathetic - there are thin lines between success and failure and on another day we could have come second. People are unfair on Kidney. People blame him for Ireland's supposed problems (again, pretending like the problems don't even exist, and if they did its certainly not Kidney's fault).

His current MO seems to be defend Ireland/Kidney to the absolute hilt at the time, then a few months later mention that everything may not have been perfect. Like he recently said we "misfired" in the 6N, it was just one sentence though, didn't say why or how.

LuckyLloyd · 07-06-2012 7:33pm

Podge_irl wrote: »

I had no idea what losing to Scotland at home in the 6N was like. Thanks to DK, I now do.

This big issue here is that Thornley refuses to even admit there might be a problem. His writing reads like we're all overreacting and everything is hunky dory. His article post-6N was pathetic - there are thin lines between success and failure and on another day we could have come second. People are unfair on Kidney. People blame him for Ireland's supposed problems (again, pretending like the problems don't even exist, and if they did its certainly not Kidney's fault).

That isn't untrue though, is it? A couple of kicks either side of the post and we'd have beaten Wales and France (just as we'd have lost the Grand Slam on the other end of the equation).

The point is that we've been consistently competitive under Kidney. There have been big performances every season - including every season since the Grand Slam.

The reasonable argument on here is that a more progressive coach would have us doing more, that selections and tactics are not optimal all the time. That's fine. But the argument begins to break down somewhat when it gets pushed out to ANY coach would be better, and the PREVIOUS coach was better.

Is Thornley too far in favour, too patient? Sure. Is this forum too critical, too bullish on where this collection of players should be? Absolutely.

Fishooks12 · 07-06-2012 7:36pm

LuckyLloyd wrote: »

That isn't untrue though, is it? A couple of kicks either side of the post and we'd have beaten Wales and France (just as we'd have lost the Grand Slam on the other end of the equation).

The point is that we've been consistently competitive under Kidney. There have been big performances every season - including every season since the Grand Slam.

The reasonable argument on here is that a more progressive coach would have us doing more, that selections and tactics are not optimal all the time. That's fine. But the argument begins to break down somewhat when it gets pushed out to ANY coach would be better, and the PREVIOUS coach was better.

Is Thornley too far in favour, too patient? Sure. Is this forum too critical, too bullish on where this collection of players should be? Absolutely.

Most of the reasonable posters on this form don't expect Ireland to win every international game we play. But the fact is we should be winning more

And we should be playing a brand of rugby suited to the talent we have rather than Kidneys horribly outdated style of play and players picked regardless of form

Thornley

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