BOI shares steadily rising... Worth a punt?

daveirl · 05-03-2014 4:41pm

This post has been deleted.

Thronegames · 06-03-2014 12:16am

I have read some other posts on ****from this guy who was up all night fretting about the results and how the market would react. I haven't bet the house on it though! I've been in and out a coupla times over the past few months. I'll stick now for a year or so with Bank of Ireland. If ptsb keeps going the way it is going I'll sell very soon but this is a bubble market with no sense at all and I will sell it as quick as I did last month! AIB and ptsb a gambol; BOFI is more of an investment IMHO.

lucky john · 06-03-2014 1:46am

daveirl wrote: »

How is Wilbur Ross locked in?

Reported yesterday that Ross (and possibly Fidelity as well) Can not sell any more shares for 90 days. It seems to be part of his original deal to buy into BoI. In an interview today he says he does not intend to sell any more for a long time anyway. At this stage he has his original investment back and +60% of the shares still in the bank. Not a bad position to be in.

Personally, I would prefer he sold off another couple of billion shares and that the government placed their stake as well across several institutions. By their very nature neither are not long term holder so the expectation of a sudden sale will be a drag on the price.

daveirl · 06-03-2014 8:38am

This post has been deleted.

Farmer Pudsey · 06-03-2014 2:05pm

Sold PTSB yesterday at 13.2c/share had bought in at 3.5c/share. Think it is near enough maxed out at present. Looking at going short on AIB what are the risks assosiated with same. Looks way over priced am aware of how little are on float(only 0.5% Of company). It is valued at 80 Billion on paper true value is maybe 15-30% of that if comparing to BOI.

Government will start getting itchy feet and with strong market may well start off loading it shareholding's in the different banks. AIB may well be a trade sale I am thinking.

Is going short and being in a position to meet margins calls to to an excess 25c/share a viable option. Government will be tempted to sell in the next 18 months for giveway pre Election late 2015, early 2016.

dealhunter1985 · 06-03-2014 7:40pm

How is the ADR still trading 8.5% higher.. Theres been a large discrepancy the last few days.I get that currency and local factors can result in discrepancies but 8.5%??
I would have thought large prop desks engaging in arbitrage would bring them more closer in line...

Thronegames · 07-03-2014 1:06am

Farmer Pudsey wrote: »

Sold PTSB yesterday at 13.2c/share had bought in at 3.5c/share. Think it is near enough maxed out at present. Looking at going short on AIB what are the risks assosiated with same. Looks way over priced am aware of how little are on float(only 0.5% Of company). It is valued at 80 Billion on paper true value is maybe 15-30% of that if comparing to BOI.

Government will start getting itchy feet and with strong market may well start off loading it shareholding's in the different banks. AIB may well be a trade sale I am thinking.

Is going short and being in a position to meet margins calls to to an excess 25c/share a viable option. Government will be tempted to sell in the next 18 months for giveway pre Election late 2015, early 2016.

Local elections also on the cards. Noonan might decide to ride the wave. ' Government take profit from Banks' Can you see that headline? I can. AIB I'm told is valued at current share price at about 100bn!!! Also ptsb in same boat. Yes I have bought and sold these over theb last few months. My weakness is that I cannot sell short. What's best way to short AIB / ptsb?. Quick please as I see a pullback coming? I'm using DAVY online.

Mr.David · 07-03-2014 11:24am

I would imagine AIB is a hard-to-borrow stock so would be an expensive short.

Farmer Pudsey · 07-03-2014 11:26am

Thronegames wrote: »

Local elections also on the cards. Noonan might decide to ride the wave. ' Government take profit from Banks' Can you see that headline? I can. AIB I'm told is valued at current share price at about 100bn!!! Also ptsb in same boat. Yes I have bought and sold these over theb last few months. My weakness is that I cannot sell short. What's best way to short AIB / ptsb?. Quick please as I see a pullback coming? I'm using DAVY online.

PSTB not quite in same boat worth about 5 Billion still a tad over calued in my opinion.

dealhunter1985 · 11-03-2014 3:16pm

dealhunter1985 wrote: »

How is the ADR still trading 8.5% higher.. Theres been a large discrepancy the last few days.I get that currency and local factors can result in discrepancies but 8.5%??
I would have thought large prop desks engaging in arbitrage would bring them more closer in line...

The ADR still trading at an 8.5% premium..
Can anyone enlighten me as to how this can be possible ?

soda_maker · 13-03-2014 12:59am

dealhunter1985 wrote: »

The ADR still trading at an 8.5% premium..
Can anyone enlighten me as to how this can be possible ?

currency conversion

the euro is presently quite strong against the dollar so the dollar price for IRE is higher

cute geoge · 13-03-2014 12:09pm

soda_maker wrote: »

currency conversion

the euro is presently quite strong against the dollar so the dollar price for IRE is higher

I find it hard to follow fx exchange does this mean Verizon shares are good value should the euro weaken

dealhunter1985 · 13-03-2014 12:49pm

soda_maker wrote: »

currency conversion

The euro is presently quite strong against the dollar so the dollar price for IRE is higher

Can someone explain in more detail please?
I can see how currency conversion can have an impact but I am trying to understand in my head how it can prevent someone making a profit on the 8% discrepancy. Right now I don't see what is preventing professional investors from buying the Irish line and selling the Adr and making a handsome profit.

For example, a U.S based investors sells 10,000 ADR's and buys the equivalent amount of ordinary shares, 400,000.
10,000 @ 19.31 = 193,100 USD
400,000 @ 0.32 = 128,000 EUR

So the investor needs to buy 128,000 EUR T3 to cover the buy.
Lets use a rate of 1.4. 128,000*1.4 = 179,200 dollars cost

193,100 - 179,200 = 13,900 USD profit.

So.. What is the very obvious detail that I am missing here?
I get that there are small conversion fees of 2/3 cent a share converted but that doesn't make much of a dent to the net profit figure..

tech · 14-03-2014 1:08pm

things are dropping

BANK OF IRELAND 0.298 -0.015 ( -4.92 %)

lucky john · 14-03-2014 2:59pm

For a change it seems to have little to do with BoI itself. Russia v Ukraine and fear of Europe been dragged in to a trade war or worse on one side. the potential of contagion if the big 4 Chinese banks get in trouble is affecting plenty of Europe banks today. I say a headline somewhere mention a Chinese Lehman Brothers.

daheff · 14-03-2014 3:16pm

dealhunter1985 wrote: »

The ADR still trading at an 8.5% premium..
Can anyone enlighten me as to how this can be possible ?

Generally what happens is that there is more demand for the ADR than for the local shares. This causes a premium factor in the price. In a lot of cases people can register shares from local (ie LSE/ISE) markets to the ADR line (held with a depository in US) and remove the premium by arbitrage.

In some cases (and I guess BOI is one of these, but cant say 100%), there are legal restrictions on how much of the shares can be listed abroad (Eg European airlines used to be required to be 50+1% listed on a European exchange -not sure this is the case anymore).

Where there is big demand for a finite amount of shares, a premium starts to creep into the price...more than likely explaining the 8% you mention.

Thronegames · 14-03-2014 8:46pm

lucky john wrote: »

For a change it seems to have little to do with BoI itself. Russia v Ukraine and fear of Europe been dragged in to a trade war or worse on one side. the potential of contagion if the big 4 Chinese banks get in trouble is affecting plenty of Europe banks today. I say a headline somewhere mention a Chinese Lehman Brothers.[/QU

Where did you see that quote? re Chinese...Lehman....you pulling the piss?

maxx_power · 14-03-2014 9:44pm

I bought a significant amount today , even it only got back to 38 cent by end of year , that would be a 25% increase

lucky john · 14-03-2014 10:43pm

quote="Thronegames;89462460"]

lucky john wrote: »

it seems ve little to do with BoI itself. Russia v Ukraine and fear of Europe been dragged in to a trade war or worse on one side. the potential of contagion if the big 4 Chinese banks get in trouble is affecting plenty of Europe banks today. I say a headline somewhere mention a Chinese Lehman Brothers.[/QU

Where did you see that quote? re Chinese...Lehman....you pulling the piss?[/quot

http://www.bloombergview.com/articles/2014-01-27/china-should-have-seized-its-lehman-moment-
http://www.forbes.com/sites/kenrapoza/2013/06/25/chinas-lehman-moment/

Its been talked about for months but yesterday's news from China has lots of media chatting about it today. The expression is "taking the piss" by the way and "pulling your leg"

lucky john · 14-03-2014 10:49pm

maxx_power wrote: »

I bought a significant amount today , even it only got back to 38 cent by end of year , that would be a 25% increase

I bought during the week at €0.315. Happy with that as I'm looking a couple of years down the road. Bank of America upgraded them to buy with a 39c target price this week.

maxx_power · 14-03-2014 11:36pm

lucky john wrote: »

I bought during the week at €0.315. Happy with that as I'm looking a couple of years down the road. Bank of America upgraded them to buy with a 39c target price this week.

I read discussions on other forums about bank of Ireland where targets like 75 c by end of 2015 are thrown about liberally , that would bring it back above its valuation prior to the bust which seems highly ambitious

personally speaking , if im getting a 10% per anum return ( including dividend ) , im pretty happy

lucky john · 15-03-2014 12:26am

maxx_power wrote: »

I read discussions on other forums about bank of Ireland where targets like 75 c by end of 2015 are thrown about liberally , that would bring it back above its valuation prior to the bust which seems highly ambitious

personally speaking , if im getting a 10% per anum return ( including dividend ) , im pretty happy

I'd say the 75c target is more guys predicting price than a serious analyst (not that one is any better than the other by times). The hype of a penny share is over for BoI I think so its all about long term potential now. They're talking a dividend in 2016 but that requires 320m for 1c per share. I can see the advantage of restoring it but it may be more a token one. However 10% per annum price appreciation is well achievable.

One thing I would like to see is the government finding a way to shift its shares soon. A deal like ross did would be good.

maxx_power · 15-03-2014 12:36am

lucky john wrote: »

I'd say the 75c target is more guys predicting price than a serious analyst (not that one is any better than the other by times). The hype of a penny share is over for BoI I think so its all about long term potential now. They're talking a dividend in 2016 but that requires 320m for 1c per share. I can see the advantage of restoring it but it may be more a token one. However 10% per annum price appreciation is well achievable.

One thing I would like to see is the government finding a way to shift its shares soon. A deal like ross did would be good.

where do you see the stock by end of 2015 ( assuming their is no broad market crash circa 2008 ) ?

lucky john · 15-03-2014 12:58am

maxx_power wrote: »

where do you see the stock by end of 2015 ( assuming their is no broad market crash circa 2008 ) ?

Not going to even attempt that. I do believe it will be higher than it is today though. I see 2014 as a transition year and 2015 as the year we see things move on. That's why its important for the government to step away asap and indeed for Ross to sell more of his stake as well. The less of these big chuncks of shares with only a couple of owners the better for long term stability.

maxx_power · 15-03-2014 1:09am

lucky john wrote: »

Not going to even attempt that. I do believe it will be higher than it is today though. I see 2014 as a transition year and 2015 as the year we see things move on. That's why its important for the government to step away asap and indeed for Ross to sell more of his stake as well. The less of these big chuncks of shares with only a couple of owners the better for long term stability.

appreciate that , you might as well try and predict a decent summer in 2014 :eek:

personally I would not be hugely surprised if we have already seen this years high in 2014 ( 39 cent ) though I think we can see 60 cent within two years with major up,s and downs in between , the run up since the beginning of 2013 has been nothing short of phenomenal and a repeat over the next fourteen months seems incredibly unlikely

Thronegames · 15-03-2014 7:14pm

lucky john wrote: »

quote="Thronegames;89462460"]

lucky john wrote: »

it seems ve little to do with BoI itself. Russia v Ukraine and fear of Europe been dragged in to a trade war or worse on one side. the potential of contagion if the big 4 Chinese banks get in trouble is affecting plenty of Europe banks today. I say a headline somewhere mention a Chinese Lehman Brothers.[/QU

Where did you see that quote? re Chinese...Lehman....you pulling the piss?[/quot

http://www.bloombergview.com/articles/2014-01-27/china-should-have-seized-its-lehman-moment-
http://www.forbes.com/sites/kenrapoza/2013/06/25/chinas-lehman-moment/

Its been talked about for months but yesterday's news from China has lots of media chatting about it today. The expression is "taking the piss" by the way and "pulling your leg"

Please note that "pulling the piss" is a West of Ireland colloquialism. Maybe something to do with getting rained upon more than the denizens of the east coast?!!! OK seriously - what happened to me with BOI is that I bought and sold twice and made significant (for me) profit. Then I decided to buy again at 37c after the results and just before Ross exited. So I'm at 15% loss now on that last trade. I have a fundamental belief in the share in the long term but in practical terms I cannot have money tied up in the stock for more than let's say one to two years. I suppose I've just become used to making profits in recent market. While my gut instinct is to hold - should I sell and buy it cheaper if the news from China quoted above (thank you for that) becomes another Lehman Bros - like event? In which case should I sell all my holdings and wait? Just thinking out loud and appreciate any opinion - though I'll make my own decision shortly.

Value Hunter · 15-03-2014 10:46pm

When Wilbur Ross sold his shares he did it at a 10% discount to the share price at the time, you's should all have a think as to why would a professional investor sell for less than than the stock was trading for publicly...

Farmer Pudsey · 16-03-2014 2:06am

Value Hunter wrote: »

When Wilbur Ross sold his shares he did it at a 10% discount to the share price at the time, you's should all have a think as to why would a professional investor sell for less than than the stock was trading for publicly...

Because he was selling I think 6% of the company. The reality is for that 6% he got most of his orgional investment back. He might have sold at even higher than a 10% discount. As he is on the Board of BOI and has a substantical holding he had ti declare his actions. There may be another investment out there where he see a larger potential return that BOI share.

I think it called hedging your bets

Value Hunter · 16-03-2014 4:27am

Farmer Pudsey wrote: »

Because he was selling I think 6% of the company. The reality is for that 6% he got most of his orgional investment back. He might have sold at even higher than a 10% discount. As he is on the Board of BOI and has a substantical holding he had ti declare his actions. There may be another investment out there where he see a larger potential return that BOI share.

I think it called hedging your bets

If he's so desperate to dump his stock that he takes a 10% discount it doesn't show much confidence for further gains, the fact it has decline 20%- 25% in two weeks shows why he was so keen to jump ship.

What professional investor sells for 10% less than the trading price?

euroboom13 · 16-03-2014 10:12am

Value Hunter wrote: »

If he's so desperate to dump his stock that he takes a 10% discount it doesn't show much confidence for further gains, the fact it has decline 20%- 25% in two weeks shows why he was so keen to jump ship.

What professional investor sells for 10% less than the trading price?

Any investor trying to offload a multimillion holding in one hit, will have to give a discount to market... if you are trying to prove that its a run for cover,i don't think you will succeed... bank of Ireland is still the only game in town.

b o I is returning from recovery play ,to investment stock! Go long all!gla

BOI shares steadily rising... Worth a punt?

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