[doovdela]

Just after taking note that there is supposedly a 49% skills gap for graduates in the IT and Technology sector as mentioned in the grad ireland blog below.

http://gradireland.wordpress.com/201...urvey-results/

[djpbarry]

Originally Posted by doovdela

Just after taking note that there is supposedly a 49% skills gap for graduates in the IT and Technology sector as mentioned in the grad ireland blog below.

http://gradireland.wordpress.com/201...urvey-results/

The 49% figure refers to all employers surveyed, not just those in the IT sector.

[doovdela]

Originally Posted by djpbarry

The 49% figure refers to all employers surveyed, not just those in the IT sector.

Oh right must have misread it and thought it was just in that sector only so in that case its all sectors just that mentioned a skills gap in IT.

[matrim]

Originally Posted by Solair

I think that there's a bit of an over-reliance on the hope that the IT sector will bring jobs that are suitable for everyone. Only a very small % of people will be able to work in these jobs or will want to work in IT.

The only hope that we have is that the IT sector will create spin off that trickles down into the domestic economy and that the code-heavy jobs will be filled by tax-paying residents, many of whom will have to move here to do them.

Front line IT jobs in programming-related areas are only suited to a very small % of the population who have an ability to learn how to code.

I think that sometimes people forget that while you can teach someone to programme, only a very small % of any population of people will be able to code well.

There have been a lot of studies on this over the years and you get three groups:

1) A large % of people who cannot code at all.
2) A % of people who can code, but absolutely hate it.
3) A small % who actually enjoy writing software.

The problem is that you're looking at having to recruit from pool 3, and that means attracting people from abroad, not just from within Ireland. Even if everyone in the entire country did computer science degrees, we probably still wouldn't be able to produce sufficient good quality coders. That's just the reality of how the human brain works!

The 14% unemployment figure is made up of the construction sector and people from lots of other areas that have been laid off as a result of the slow down across the general economy. The vast majority of those people may never be able to work in IT no matter what qualification options you offer them.

I don't really see the point of offering people courses in subjects they may have no aptitude to do or interest in. You're only going to waste their time, waste the state's money and possibly cause them serious upset if they fail courses.

So, I think really we need to be looking at more than just the IT sector. It's an important component, but it's not the silver bullet that will solve our unemployment woes.

There are extremely intelligent people out there who will absolutely never be able to write computer software, and even if they can, many more absolutely find it tedious and head-wrecking.

We need to ensure that we have a range of employment options. Otherwise, if there are only opportunities in one sector that requires very specific skills, then we end up with long term unemployment and permanent emigration.

Coding isn't the only thing to IT. In fact it's probably a reasonably small part of it. Admins, Support, QA, etc are all just as important and can make up a large number of jobs.

Take construction, not everybody can be an architect, but he generates jobs for block layers, plumbers, electricians, labourers, estate agents etc. I'm not 100% certain what level you could substitute programmer for as there are different levels of programmer but the general idea stands.

[ardmacha]

Not everyone can be a coder, but not all of those who could have done so did so in the 00s. While people who became blocklayers might not be ideal for the IT sector, the boom also employed people who became civil engineers, quantity surveyors from people who might have done technical IT jobs. Also modern multinationals coming to Ireland require a variety of skills, not just coders. So a person of imagination that might have become an architect might design something for Google.

But of course other business sectors, agribusiness, tourism, etc need to do their bit.

[doovdela]

Well true. Coding and IT is not for everyone only a few are cut out for it and are able for certain areas of IT without programming element or a small element of programming though most IT jobs have an element of programming, technical support might be the exception depending on the job.

Yes very true you could have an architecture/engineering background but you could do quiet well in the area of design whether it IT, Logic/circuits, software, applications, web or multimedia related.

It can create an domino affect if you like in terms of jobs in an industry.

[djpbarry]

Originally Posted by doovdela

Well true. Coding and IT is not for everyone only a few are cut out for it...

It's not necessarily a question of not being "cut out for it" - I think most people could write some simple code with a bit of instruction/persuasion/coercion. A lot of people are just not interested.

I don't know about you, but I'd hate to live in a world where everyone was (or wanted to be) a software developer! The fashion industry would collapse overnight!

[doovdela]

Originally Posted by djpbarry

It's not necessarily a question of not being "cut out for it" - I think most people could write some simple code with a bit of instruction/persuasion/coercion. A lot of people are just not interested.

I don't know about you, but I'd hate to live in a world where everyone was (or wanted to be) a software developer! The fashion industry would collapse overnight!

Ya I know what you mean, you can write code but not be a coder from birth say. Though some people are. You could still get a job whether or not you a good coder or not, if you have some skill in it you have some chance of getting a job in that area but something that goes along side it maybe like web programming and social media. Coding is something that can be learnt but I think if you like it, have a knack for it and grasp it well then you fly in coding and excel in it in a job in coding. Its something you either like or dislike. Good or not so good at it but it depends on the job and what be expected from it in terms of coding ability.

hmmm. I don't know what to say to that! :/

[KindOfIrish]

Originally Posted by djpbarry

Iceland's level of debt is similar to Ireland's. As of 2011, Iceland's debt to GDP ratio was a fraction below 100%, while Ireland's was 104%.

I think nobody knows, how much Irish debt is. In Ireland 20 - 25% of mortgages are practically unpayable. I foresee mass mortgage default in the next 2 -3 years. Together with huge budget deficit it is very difficult to make realistic assessment of financial situation.

[djpbarry]

Originally Posted by KindOfIrish

I think nobody knows, how much Irish debt is. In Ireland 20 - 25% of mortgages are practically unpayable.

But that's not government debt. People keep dragging private debt into discussions of government debt.

Originally Posted by KindOfIrish

I foresee mass mortgage default in the next 2 -3 years. Together with huge budget deficit it is very difficult to make realistic assessment of financial situation.

It's not that difficult to come up ballpark figures.

[Sand]

Originally Posted by djpbarry

But that's not government debt.

Yet. Its not government debt yet.

Ireland has tied the anchor of the banks to the state. So the banks problems are our problems. If the banks have large mortgage book problems, then we have large mortgage book problems.

And that's leading to very bad outcomes whereby Ireland needs to reform bankruptcy law to free up the economy, but cant because its terrified of the outcome for the banks that it now owns.

[AngeGal]

Originally Posted by djpbarry

I already have? Twice. But here you go again...

Unemployment is the biggest social challenge facing Ireland over the coming years - it's not something that economic growth will fix, for the simple reason that a large chunk of those currently unemployed do not have transferable skills and are effectively unemployable. Their options are either migrate to where the work is (I don't understand the fuss people make over emigration, to be honest) or to re-train. My own personal opinion is that many of those who were made redundant when the construction boom collapsed will remain unemployed for the rest of their lives.
.

Why? Emigration can be a wonderful thing for some people but it's a terrible thing if you have no wish to do so but no other option.

[maninasia]

Originally Posted by djpbarry

But that's not government debt. People keep dragging private debt into discussions of government debt.
It's not that difficult to come up ballpark figures.

You must have a short memory to forget how quickly private debt can become public debt. Unfortunately the banks have been effectively nationalised so mortgage debt WILL become sovereign debt once banks need yet more bailouts as they continue to suck the life out of the economy.

Not sure where you got 'Ireland's national debt is 104 billion Euro' from. These are the governments own figures published below. The figure for 2015 is a rather terrifying 203 billion Euro! This also does NOT include NAMA. Now that would have been a relief if NAMA was positively valued but unfortunately NAMA seems to have over paid for it's assets.

http://www.ntma.ie/Publications/2011..._info_note.pdf

Ireland’s General Government Gross debt1 – the debt of all arms of Government and the standard metric across the EU – was €148.1bn at the end of 2010. It is projected to increase to €173bn at the end of 2011. Based on Department of Finance forecasts for the Exchequer deficit as set out in the recently published Ireland - Stability Programme Update (SPU2
Table 1: General Government Gross debt, 2010-2015 ) and projected interest costs from the NTMA, General Government debt is forecast to reach €203bn by 2015 (see table 1 below).

At a round number of 5% the annual interest rate amounts to 10 billion Euro. Even if we could get it down to 4% that's still 8 billion Euro in interest payments alone. How are we going to reduce the debt pile let alone keep it from increasing? This also does not include potential NAMA depreciation or private debts (that could become public).

If you want to an even cheerier start to your day have a read of this!
http://www.davidmcwilliams.ie/2012/0...is-only-option

Reading through it, one chart jumped out at me. Have a look at the chart. Yes, the one accompanying this article. It is taken from data of the Bank of International Settlements. It shows just how much debt the Irish economy is carrying. What it tells you is that Ireland is the most indebted country in the world. When compared with Greece, Ireland is carrying more than two-and-a-half times more debt. We are twice as indebted as Portugal.

So we see the recent Yes vote just allows us more rope to hang ourselves with. The strategy of putting off the day of reckoning WILL fail and it will fail spectacularly.

[maninasia]

Originally Posted by Sand

Yet. Its not government debt yet.

Ireland has tied the anchor of the banks to the state. So the banks problems are our problems. If the banks have large mortgage book problems, then we have large mortgage book problems.

And that's leading to very bad outcomes whereby Ireland needs to reform bankruptcy law to free up the economy, but cant because its terrified of the outcome for the banks that it now owns.

It's Alice in Wonderland isn't it, Soviet style Ireland at it's finest.

When the state owns the banks, the assets, and the debts...how do you actually deal with one problem without causing another!