Irelands most likely Olympic 2012 Medals

So with 53 qualifiers so far it looks like London 2012 will be one of our most represented in terms of athlete numbers. Atlanta 1996 and London 1948 squad numbers look to be unsurpassable this time around but there is huge quality amongst this particular bunch of Olympians.
Here is a table outlining the size of our Olympic squads in the past in terms of competitors:

OLYMPIC YEAR|No. OF SPORTS WITH IRISH COMPETITORS|MEN|WOMEN|TOTAL|
Atlanta 1996|13|62|16|78|
London 1948|10|68|5|73|
Sydney 2000|10|40|24|64|
Seoul 1988|12|52|9|61|
Munich 1972|12|51|8|59|
Barcelona 1992|12|49|9|58|
Beijing 2008|12|39|16|55|
London 2012|13|28|20|53|
Rome 1960|8|47|2|49|
Paris 1924|6|47|2|49|
Athens 2004|9|34*|15*|49*|
Moscow 1980|11|44|3|47|
Montreal 1976|10|41|3|44|
Los Angeles 1984|10|28|14|42|
Amsterdam 1928|6|33|5|38|
Mexico City 1968|7|25|6|31|
Tokyo 1964|7|24|1|25|
Helsinki 1952|6|19|0|19|
Melbourne 1956|5|17|1|18|
Los Angeles 1932|3|14|2|16|


*3 athletes withdrew from the team during the Olympics (Jamie Costin, Nick Sweeney and Gillian O'Sullivan but all 3 qualified and travelled as part of the squad to Athens before making late decisions not to participate, a forced decision on the part of Costin who was run over by a lorry).

• In terms of the volume of Irish competitors, Atlanta 1996 remains the benchmark with a total of 78 Irish Olympians that year.
• Sydney 2000 saw the record number of Irish female Olympians with 24. However it appears as though that record will be under serious threat this year with 20 already qualified and with a possible women's relay team in athletics as well as other qualifiers in dressage, eventing, cycling and other athletics disciplines, this years total should exceed the previous record.
• The ratio of men/women in the Irish Olympic team was at its most equal in Sydney 2000 with 40 men/24 women (ratio of 3 women for every 5 men on the team). The ratio between men and women on the current 2012 Olympic team is 7:5, i.e 7 men for every 5 women. This could narrow further as the qualification period comes to a close.
• There was no Irish team at the Berlin Olympics in 1936 due to a dispute with the I.O.C. over political wranglings between Ireland and Britain.

As it stands, for the London 2012 Olympics Ireland has 53 competitors qualified, 28 men and 20 women in a total of 13 sports: athletics (17), sailing (8), boxing (6), equestrian (5) cycling (4) swimming (4), canoe/kayak (3) badminton (1), gymnastics (1), judo (1), rowing (1), shooting (1) and triathlon (1).
If either Natalya or Arthur win a quota place in Modern Pentathlon (hopefully both will) then this Olympics will be our best in terms of number of sports that Irish athletes are competing in (13 so far, same as Atlanta).


Possible qualifiers:

1. Natalya Coyle (Modern Pentathlon) - currently inside the qualification positions in the rankings with only this weekend's World Cup 2012 Series Final to go.
2. Arthur Lanigan-O'Keeffe (Modern Pentathlon) - currently just outside the qualifying positions in the rankings but has a good chance to make up the ground needed at this weekend's World Cup Series Final in Chengdu, China.
3. Chris Bryan (10km Marathon Open Water Swim) - has a final opportunity in June to qualify for London 2012. He is talented enough to do it but a top 9 finish is needed at the Final Qualifying Event and will be a tough task, but he is more than capable of it.
4. Gavin Noble (Triathlon) - currently inside the qualifying positions in the rankings with only one event to go. He is not competing in the final event so will face an anxious wait to see if he makes it. Having said that, it is extreely unlikely those below him will make up the ground needed to overhaul him on the Olympic ranking list.
5. Scott Evans (Badminton) - he lies second in line when the quota places are re-distributed so he is in with a superb chance of making London.
6. Joe Ward (Boxing) - we are still awaiting that important decision on whether Joe will get the nod for the invitation spot. All indications (following the rules of qualification) is that Joe is in pole position to get this berth but nothing is certain. Politics often plays a part in these decisions.
7. Anna Merveldt (Individual Dressage) - she is second reserve and due to the fact that New Zealand are unlikely to take up their team place and probably other teams being unable to field full teams, more places should become available and Anna is well up the list. She is almost certain to get a starting place in London.
8. Eventing rider - a lot of teams who were awarded a full quota of 5 team members will not be able to fulfill their entire quota meaning Ireland are likely to pick up another 2 slots and attain the maximum 5 riders in London.
9. Eventing rider - see above
10. Caroline Ryan (Road Race Cycling) - Caroline is still hoping to get the nod for the women's road race. I'm unsure of her chances but those in the know seem to think she has a shot of making the Olympic team.
11. Kelvin Batey (B.M.X.) - he is still in the running to win a quota place for Ireland to race this event in London.
12. Jenny Egan (Canoe/Kayak) - she is awaiting the re-allocation of unused quota places and the national federation think she has an outside chance of gaining a place on the countback system.

There are many chances also in athletics. The squad will likely increase by 5 if the Irish women's 4x400m relay team can remain inside the top 16 teams in the Olympic rankings. They are currently no.12 and it would be very unfortunate if they missed out now, it looks 80-90% certain at this stage.
Other strong individual chances in athletics include David Gillick (400m), Steven Colvert (200m), Jason Smyth (100m), Laura Reynolds (20km Walk), Ciara Mageean (800m/1,500m), Jessie Barr (400m Hurdles).
There are other athletes with outside chances and I expect maybe one or two of those could gain a qualifying standard over the course of the summer.

So we are likely to see at least a dozen more members added to the team. This would bring the team numbers up to 65. But it is likely we will get some more although unlikely to be above 70 (although it is possible if things go our way).

Our shooting representative for London 2012, Derek Burnett, has finished 22nd (tied with the score of the 15th place finisher) at the European Shotgun Championships in Larnaca, Cyprus. Competing in the men's trap he scored 118 out of a possible 125 but with only the top 6 shooters advancing to the medal showdown, Derek would have needed a score of 122/125 to progress (extremely tough qualification as those leading shooters only missed 3 targets out of 125).
Derek was still only 4 hits behind the qualifiers so nothing too much to alarm him going into London. He is perfroming well, just a little more conisistency through the rounds and he could be challenging not too far from the top guys.

Dodge wrote: »

Balls, just reported your post instead of replying!

Basically yeah, I think today races acted as qualifier for the races, as well as qualifying for finals of time trials

The field was huge and 64 go through to races tomorrow

Thanks for that Dodge (thanks for the update, not for reporting my post ). If that is the case then here is a list of those countries still in the running for qualification (other nations might get awarded quota places when unused places are re-allocated).
The following 20 countries have qualified for the qualification run tomorrow and along with Canada (who didn't get a rider into tomorrow's races) are in the hunt for those Olympic quota places:
· USA
· France
· Latvia
· G.B.
· Australia
· Colombia
· Netherlands
· New Zealand
· Switzerland
· Brazil
· Germany
· Denmark
· Philippines
· Czech Rep.
· Italy
· Ecuador
· Argentina
· South Africa
· IRELAND
· Belgium
There is effectively 2 ways that NOCs (nations) can gain qualification for the London 2012 BMX race.
The first is through the UCI World Nations Ranking System. Now this is still not clear cut as this weekend's World Championships count towards that ranking and this ranking will then finalise after these championships. However, here is the current standings with the top 11 nations in this list gaining quota places (ranging from 3 for the top 5 nations, to 2 for the 6-8th placed nations, down to 1 quota place for the 9th to 11th placed countries):

1. Australia
2. U.S.A.
3. France
4. Latvia
5. Netherlands
6. Colombia
7. New Zealand
8. Germany
9. Canada
10. Italy
11. Argentina
12. Ecuador
13. Brazil
14. Switzerland
15. Norway
26. IRELAND

Now there is no way that Ireland can qualify a quota place via this procedure therefore Kelvin must place amongst the 6 best of those unqualified nations (nations outside the top 11 after these World Championships) in order to win a quota place for Ireland.


Out of those 20 countries I mentioned in the first list of this post, at least 17 of those nations will win quota spots for London 2012 by the end of this weekend's World Championships and possibly 18 nations if Canada slip out of the top 11 in the UCI Nations World Rankings list after this competition.
Therefore Kelvin has a great opportunity to win a quota place for Ireland, but it will still be tough. It will become more clear after tomorrow's qualification run.

Let me know Dodge if I'm off the mark with this account, it's my analysis of the qualification procedures as outlined by the U.C.I.

Dodge wrote: »

That's my reading of it, although I understand the world championships count towards the rankings, and in fact are the biggest contributors.

As the sport is madness he'll need luck tomorrow. Let's hope he gets it

They do count towards the rankings as I explained above, so it is yet unknown which nations will finish in the top 11 of the UCI Nation World Rankings.

feargale wrote: »

Irish Times Friday re Relay Swimming : " Ireland will still have a shot at qualifying in the 4x100m medley on Sunday." What's the story ?

The 4x200m freestyle was regarded as their best shot at qualifying a relay team. But they still will give the 4x100m medley a crack. Hopefully they put in a good time.

Yes, she's definitely done enough to claim an Olympic quota spot, she's 7th in the Olympic rankings list. Excellent news, Ireland's 54th member of the London 2012 team, and we will be represented in a record 14 different sports, and Natalya is our first ever female modern pentathlete.
Hopefully Arthur can do the business tomorrow in the men's final, although his task is more difficult as he currently lies just outside the qualification places.

Irish Olympic hopeful Jessie Barr reduced her P.B. over her specialised event, the 400m Hurdles in Oordegem, Belgium this afternoon. Her time of 56.19secs sees her dip under the Olympic B-standard for the second time but to make sure of her spot in London she needs to hit the A-time of 55.50secs. This looks a tough ask but it is great to see that things are heading in the right direction for this talented young hurdler. Her participation in the 400m Hurdles might hinge on whether she is selected as part of the women's 4x400m relay squad should they go on to achieve qualification as expected. If she is named as part of that team then she would also be entered for 400m hurdles with the B-standard. However, there are a lot of girls looking to book their spots in that relay team so nothing is certain yet.