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Run on Banks, when's it going to happen here?

  • 18-05-2012 10:54am
    #1
    Registered Users Posts: 28,091 ✭✭✭✭


    I know we had a run at the start of the crisis but the Euro Zone crisis has spilled over to the UK today with over 1 billion withdrawn yesterday.

    Is my money safe with AIB with the bank guarantee scheme? I'm thinking I should put it somewhere else in case they go bang. I've got stung before with other businesses when they closed the doors.
    Where should I put the money?

    Any opinions?


«13

Comments

  • Registered Users Posts: 1,929 ✭✭✭Anita Blow


    Country is still in a bad state but I think we're passed the run on the banks possibility at least.
    As far as I know our banks have very little exposure to Greece


  • Registered Users Posts: 28,091 ✭✭✭✭drunkmonkey


    The UK banks are starting to run, it looks like Santandare is turning into northern rock as we speak. http://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/markets/article-2146294/Stock-markets-flash-red-investors-gripped-fears-run-European-banks.html


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 902 ✭✭✭baords dyslexic


    You could always buy that boat?


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,929 ✭✭✭Anita Blow


    I'm no expert on this stuff but I'd say it's because Santander would have a large enough exposure to the Spanish Property crash. Also since it's a large, Europe-wide Bank it could have exposure to Greece.

    I think the difference between ourselves and the UK is that our banks have gone through even stricter stress tests and have passed. The fact that they've passed these stress tests, have been recapitalised (so their balance sheets are in a much better position) and they have little to no exposure to Greece means that any Greek default would have no real effect on our banks.

    It might have secondary effects like another credit crunch but it's not like they're lending anyway, and they've dealt with this situation before and survived.


  • Registered Users Posts: 3,027 ✭✭✭Lantus


    you'd ned to have a serious amount of cash, 5 or really 6 fig sums to be worried. I only have the few cent left from better times..... :(

    Even so I doubt it will even come to that.


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  • Closed Accounts Posts: 2,117 ✭✭✭Defiler Of The Coffin


    I know we had a run at the start of the crisis but the Euro Zone crisis has spilled over to the UK today with over 1 billion withdrawn yesterday.

    Is my money safe with AIB with the bank guarantee scheme? I'm thinking I should put it somewhere else in case they go bang. I've got stung before with other businesses when they closed the doors.
    Where should I put the money?

    Any opinions?

    I don't think there has even been a full-scale run on the Greek Banks yet? Facebook are floating today if you want to spread some of your cash around!


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 3,461 ✭✭✭liammur


    I know we had a run at the start of the crisis but the Euro Zone crisis has spilled over to the UK today with over 1 billion withdrawn yesterday.

    Is my money safe with AIB with the bank guarantee scheme? I'm thinking I should put it somewhere else in case they go bang. I've got stung before with other businesses when they closed the doors.
    Where should I put the money?

    Any opinions?

    Who cares if there's a run on our banks? BOI management doesn't. Nor do government finance ministers.

    http://www.independent.ie/business/boi-bosses-move-29m-of-own-cash-out-of-bank-3053970.html

    http://www.independent.ie/business/irish/noonan-steers-clear-of-ireland-with-own-money-2615030.html


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 88,978 ✭✭✭✭mike65


    There will only be a run on the banks if enough people are panicked into withdrawing money. Lets try to not be that stupid.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 5,430 ✭✭✭testicle


    I know we had a run at the start of the crisis but the Euro Zone crisis has spilled over to the UK today with over 1 billion withdrawn yesterday.

    Is my money safe with AIB with the bank guarantee scheme? I'm thinking I should put it somewhere else in case they go bang. I've got stung before with other businesses when they closed the doors.
    Where should I put the money?

    Any opinions?

    Give it to me.


  • Registered Users Posts: 13,062 ✭✭✭✭Geuze




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  • Registered Users Posts: 28,091 ✭✭✭✭drunkmonkey


    You could always buy that boat?

    It's the money for the boat i'm worried about. No tax for 10 years if you start up in some caribbean islands at the moment, I'm so so tempted looking out here at the grey skies and drizzle. :)


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 3,683 ✭✭✭Kensington


    I know we had a run at the start of the crisis but the Euro Zone crisis has spilled over to the UK today with over 1 billion withdrawn yesterday.

    Is my money safe with AIB with the bank guarantee scheme? I'm thinking I should put it somewhere else in case they go bang. I've got stung before with other businesses when they closed the doors.
    Where should I put the money?

    Any opinions?

    I don't see there being any great risk tbh. In saying that, I have my savings spread around amongst a number of banks/credit unions, based both here and elsewhere in Europe, aswell as some stock. Don't keep all your eggs in the one basket as they say! :)


  • Registered Users Posts: 5,336 ✭✭✭Mr.Micro


    mike65 wrote: »
    There will only be a run on the banks if enough people are panicked into withdrawing money. Lets try to not be that stupid.

    Sean Quinn got €3 billion from the banks some time ago, and has not paid it back, or it appears to have any intention of doing so. The rest of us pay for they likes of him no matter what country we are in, Ireland, Spain or Greece. I would not be surprised if there are any lessons learned by the banks here.


  • Moderators, Category Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 47,223 CMod ✭✭✭✭Black Swan


    You could always buy that boat?
    testicle wrote: »
    Give it to me.
    It's the money for the boat i'm worried about. No tax for 10 years if you start up in some caribbean islands at the moment, I'm so so tempted looking out here at the grey skies and drizzle. :)
    MOD FRIENDLY REMINDER:
    Please be advised that this is the Irish Economy forum, not the Politics Café or AH. This forum is for serious discussion. It is strongly recommended that you keep this in mind before posting in the future.


  • Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 8,633 ✭✭✭darkman2


    OP, I have to say, I think it's very irresponsible to even have a thread like this. Bank runs are dangerous things. And once people get it wrongly into their heads that their money is not safe you could have a panic. That's what is happening in Greece right now though not a "run" more of a "jog". We really don't want any such movement developing here! And once talk of bank runs start it is so hard to get the genie back in the bottle. It can be a runaway train and everyone ultimately suffers the consequences.

    Your money is fine. My money is fine. If people start withdrawing funds in bulk then our money is not safe. So why even ask?


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 3,461 ✭✭✭liammur


    darkman2 wrote: »
    OP, I have to say, I think it's very irresponsible to even have a thread like this. Bank runs are dangerous things. And once people get it wrongly into their heads that their money is not safe you could have a panic. That's what is happening in Greece right now though not a "run" more of a "jog". We really don't want any such movement developing here! And once talk of bank runs start it is so hard to get the genie back in the bottle. It can be a runaway train and everyone ultimately suffers the consequences.

    Your money is fine. My money is fine. If people start withdrawing funds in bulk then our money is not safe. So why even ask?

    No. Discussion is good, Greeks are taking their money out because it's likely they will return to the drachma, which could be devalued by 50%.


  • Registered Users Posts: 3,027 ✭✭✭Lantus


    Theres no real run on the greek banks becuase most of the wealthy people have already moved the money elsewhere sometime ago.

    The folks left are the day to day people with 'normal' accounts in that you get paid ad it's used up through the course of a month. Very hard to make a run on what isn't really there for very long as you need it to live on.


  • Registered Users Posts: 6,724 ✭✭✭kennyb3


    There won't be a run in Ireland - well not for a few years anyway. But there was pretty serious capital flight for most of last year.

    I, for one have my wedge, nicely tucked up in a German bank and I know plenty more who have done similar.


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,241 ✭✭✭stackerman


    darkman2 wrote: »
    OP, I have to say, I think it's very irresponsible to even have a thread like this. Bank runs are dangerous things. And once people get it wrongly into their heads that their money is not safe you could have a panic. That's what is happening in Greece right now though not a "run" more of a "jog". We really don't want any such movement developing here! And once talk of bank runs start it is so hard to get the genie back in the bottle. It can be a runaway train and everyone ultimately suffers the consequences.

    Your money is fine. My money is fine. If people start withdrawing funds in bulk then our money is not safe. So why even ask?

    Sorry darkman, but that is complete rubbish. The OP is only trying to look after his family (which is all we are really talking about) and he is well within his rights to bring up this topic. If others wish to keep their heads in the sand fine, but I'll happily discuss same with him.
    Would you be happier if I discussed same via PM :rolleyes:

    If you are lucky enough to have a few quid, I suggest you think on a bit.
    No offence meant.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 343 ✭✭chris2008x


    Honestly these state guarantees are just a laugh. Seriously how could the state afford to cover each individual saver up to a maximum of €100,000

    They just said this in 2008 with no thought put into at all whatsoever. The truth is your money isn't safe but what is going on in Greece is no where near the situation we are in Ireland. Greece is seen as the most likely to leave the euro. Although I believe the situation could have been a lot better if we hadn't signed up for this euro jumping ship too early is a dangerous thing and Ireland leaving the euro isn't going to happen at least not in this decade.

    FYI savers, when banks go bust it will always be the banks who lend to them that will be first in line for any payments during winding down. You the savers are bottom of the pyramid.


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  • Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 8,633 ✭✭✭darkman2


    stackerman wrote: »
    I'll happily discuss same with him.
    Would you be happier if I discussed same via PM :rolleyes:

    Yes. The dynamic of a bank run mean it is not something anyone should ever be flippant about. The OP's fears are illogical - the banks are not in danger and his savings are safe. What would put his savings in danger is the message he is promoting.


    If Joe Duffy (for example) on his radio show started talking about the safety of deposits in banks or the lack of it he would be taken off the air within minutes. And rightly so.

    There is no fundamental problem with Irish banks when it comes to depositors. None at all. The OP's thread title is irresponsible and the message is dangerous if given a big enough, largely ignorant, audience. That's the problem - ignorance. People get scared. That's what prompts a run on a bank.


  • Registered Users Posts: 6,326 ✭✭✭Farmer Pudsey


    I think we should pick 3-4 branches monday morning and start withdrawing it would be real fun nothing like a bit of panic to get things going. Very easy to organise on FB or any discussion. Que of 20-30 people outside bank before an hour before opening talking loudly., rushing in demanding all there money in cash:D

    By lunchtime


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 1,997 ✭✭✭gally74


    kennyb3 wrote: »
    There won't be a run in Ireland - well not for a few years anyway. But there was pretty serious capital flight for most of last year.

    I, for one have my wedge, nicely tucked up in a German bank and I know plenty more who have done similar.

    Hello can you name the bank and steps?


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,243 ✭✭✭Unrealistic


    darkman2 wrote: »
    Yes. The dynamic of a bank run mean it is not something anyone should ever be flippant about. The OP's fears are illogical - the banks are not in danger and his savings are safe. What would put his savings in danger is the message he is promoting.
    I'm glad you're so certain about that. The Irish Central Bank takes a more nuanced view and Deutsche Bank is even less confident.
    http://www.rte.ie/news/2012/0323/economy-business.html
    http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-05-18/irish-banks-may-tip-state-into-bailout-2-deutsche-bank-says.html

    darkman2 wrote: »
    If Joe Duffy (for example) on his radio show started talking about the safety of deposits in banks or the lack of it he would be taken off the air within minutes. And rightly so.
    Joe Duffy did do a program on this subject in late 2010. The government of the day were not happy but he wasn't taken off the air.

    darkman2 wrote: »
    There is no fundamental problem with Irish banks when it comes to depositors. None at all.
    Except a huge bad debt problem that is accelerating rather than slowing.
    darkman2 wrote: »
    The OP's thread title is irresponsible and the message is dangerous if given a big enough, largely ignorant, audience. That's the problem - ignorance. People get scared. That's what prompts a run on a bank.
    People get scared, certainly, but whether it is ignorance or justified concern is a separate question.


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,309 ✭✭✭Technoprisoner


    was there not a time limit on the bank gurantee made in 2008?


  • Registered Users Posts: 32,975 ✭✭✭✭NIMAN


    I've always wondered where do people put their money when they withdraw it from a bank?


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,454 ✭✭✭Icepick


    NIMAN wrote: »
    I've always wondered where do people put their money when they withdraw it from a bank?
    another bank not owned by the state, gold, shares...


  • Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 8,633 ✭✭✭darkman2




    Except a huge bad debt problem that is accelerating rather than slowing.



    That's rubbish. The banks still have increasing bad debts but it is not accelerating. It is the opposite.


  • Registered Users Posts: 6,433 ✭✭✭touts


    The problem isnt the stability of the banks. The banks are supported with lots of money and the signs are that support will continue. The problem is the money. People in Greece are taking their money out of the banks because they want it in Euro notes not some digital illusion of money in an account. They dont want to wake up one day and hear that all their money has been switched from Euros to Drachma on a 1 to 1 basis and then the Drachma falls by 60% in first day of trading in effect wiping out most of their savings. The banks still have the same number of units of a currency just a very devalued one. If people have euro notes then they can keep them safe and once things stabilise they head to Germany for a day and convert them to Drachma without losing the 60%.

    There will be minor flows from banks here until we have a better idea of what currency we will have. If we are allowed to stay in the main Euro then there wont be a run. But if it looks like we are moving back to the punt or into a division 2 euro (us, greece, spain, italy, portugal, cyprus etc) then there will be a full run on the banks. Most sensible businesses have made plans on how to move ther money in a hurry if they need to. It is just like any disaster recovery plan. Hopefully they will never use it but better to have the plan rather than be running around like a headless chicken on the morning that it all comea down. Most sensible people sholud have a similar plan for their persoal savings.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 1,243 ✭✭✭Unrealistic


    darkman2 wrote: »
    That's rubbish. The banks still have increasing bad debts but it is not accelerating. It is the opposite.
    From Bloomberg today.
    Although resilient during 2009 and 2010, mortgage arrears have risen sharply over the past year
    http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-05-18/irish-banks-may-tip-state-into-bailout-2-deutsche-bank-says.html

    Quarterly Mortgage Arrears as reported by the Central Bank of Ireland
    Dec 2010 5.7%
    Mar 2011 6.3% (increased by 0.6%)
    Jun 2011 7.2% (increased by 0.9%)
    Sep 2011 8.1% (increased by 0.9%)
    Dec 2011 9.2% (increased by 1.1%)

    The rate of increase is growing therefore it is correct to say it is accelerating.


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