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Thunderstorm/Convective Watch - Spring/Summer 2012

  • 13-03-2012 12:59pm
    #1
    Registered Users Posts: 5,068 ✭✭✭Iancar29


    Thought i'd get this one started off. :)

    Current model runs showing some slight potential for a view rumblies on Sunday [ MOTHER'S DAY ! ] .. Fairly far out yet still but will be interesting to see how it unfolds :)

    Cape values varie with some models showing up some tasty 400j/kg !
    108_48.gif

    But Then some more lower values too ..
    viewimage.pbx?type=gfs;date=20120313;time=06;ext=102;file=mlcape;sess=046df07ac11df5901a13764a678ff362;

    Lifted index ( the trigger mechanism ) is alright with some negative values in the NW.
    viewimage.pbx?type=gfs;date=20120313;time=06;ext=102;file=ukcapeli;sess=046df07ac11df5901a13764a678ff362;

    And the South later on in the afternoon..

    viewimage.pbx?type=gfs;date=20120313;time=06;ext=105;file=ukcapeli;sess=046df07ac11df5901a13764a678ff362;


    So ye, one to keep an eye on folks! :)


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Comments

  • Registered Users Posts: 671 ✭✭✭skipz


    This is more like it, never mind that snow lark ;)


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 2,693 ✭✭✭Redsunset


    St Patrick' s day is looking like becoming somewhat of a washout for many. There will be alot of parades around the country and some heavy thunder showers could be in the mix. Latest spanish hirlam suggest low pressure coming in to the west bringing lots of unpleasantness in the form of rain/hail.

    12031712_1500.gif

    Canadian model looking similar
    12031712_1500.gif

    There is still model uncertainty but whatever way we look at it, expect much cooler and wet conditions.


  • Registered Users Posts: 5,068 ✭✭✭Iancar29


    Yeah looks like Sunday's potential has now moved to Saturday with the south as mentioned most at risk for any thundery showers.But still heavy showers elsewhere too .



    196503.png


    196504.png

    Would be funny though... if this was to somehow UPGRADE Considerably what would they do for like the parades?... i know its a very very low chance , but the thought of it alone is interesting. Would they risk safety right up to when they hear thunder? ... hmmmmmm


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 2,693 ✭✭✭Redsunset


    Could be a very interesting day bar no downgrades of course. Hail watchers at the ready.

    ukcapeli.png


  • Registered Users Posts: 5,068 ✭✭✭Iancar29


    redsunset wrote: »
    Could be a very interesting day bar no downgrades of course. Hail watchers at the ready.

    ukcapeli.png


    Feck it anyways!.... now i wish i had the day off work!!! ... Typical!

    ITs looking interesting indeed, shall look forward to what Rte hav to say now... ill go for them saying.. " St.Patricks day will be very unsettled , with some heavy showers in places , with even some hail showers too . " THey wont scare us all with the thought of some thunder on a National holiday such as Paddys day! ha :rolleyes:


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  • Closed Accounts Posts: 2,693 ✭✭✭Redsunset


    Holding strong, if anything a slight upgrade, question is will it be gone in next run

    Headlines :D

    St Patrick's Day Thunderstorms create dazzling display parading across Ireland.

    ukcapeli.png


  • Registered Users Posts: 5,068 ✭✭✭Iancar29


    I Dont know what to make of this buts its kinda scary! ha
    HOpefully its the potential thundery showers! :D

    :eek:

    196632.png


  • Registered Users Posts: 5,068 ✭✭✭Iancar29


    THEY MUST BE WATCHING US!! haaha!
    NOt a MENTION of Thundery showers only now...

    Met Éireann:
    St. Patrick's Day will start cold and sunny and while sunny spells will continue through the day there will be some heavy rain or hail showers as well scattered across the country with a risk of isolated thundery downpours. Highest temperatures 6 to 9 degrees in light breezes.

    HOpefully now we dont ALL end up being wrong! ha

    But seriously..... parades..... lightning?.... not a good mix... :/


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 2,693 ✭✭✭Redsunset


    Tell you what, I think tomorrow has the makings of right good downpours across the southern part of the country then pushing into the Midlands and east which are capable of spot flooding in most intense cloudbursts. Parades could be disrupted so I'm whipping out the Warning Sign.

    196721.png

    hirlam-2-21_eho3.png

    196720.gif


  • Registered Users Posts: 5,068 ✭✭✭Iancar29


    Looks like every is moving quite slow ,


    Most of the potential along the south coast for the time being but as the day progresses, if enough land heating occurs , showers go grow further while moving easterly then..


    Im off to works so ill shall be keep a close eye on the radar throughout the day.

    HAPPY PADDYs DAY EVERYONE ... HAV A GOOD ONE! :)


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  • Registered Users Posts: 6,108 ✭✭✭highdef


    Very heavy shower slow moving over the Leixlip/Celbridge and also clipping the Maynooth area, according to net weather radar which is showing oranges reds and pinks. Looking out my window in the direction and the sky is jet black. Seems to be moving very very slowly northwards. Can anyone out that way confirm some action?


  • Registered Users Posts: 921 ✭✭✭MiNdGaM3


    The predicted skew t for Dublin.
    Cape of 329J

    196739.gif


  • Posts: 6,025 ✭✭✭[Deleted User]


    highdef wrote: »
    Very heavy shower slow moving over the Leixlip/Celbridge and also clipping the Maynooth area, according to net weather radar which is showing oranges reds and pinks. Looking out my window in the direction and the sky is jet black. Seems to be moving very very slowly northwards. Can anyone out that way confirm some action?

    its bucketing down here, parts of my garden are white from the hail. Was extremely heavy


    Didnt think it was possible, but coming down heavier, lots of hail.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 469 ✭✭blackius


    Very heavy hail sw of arklow, ongoing for 25 mins or so.
    Flat calm and it doesn't look like wanting to clear in a hurry.
    Saw plenty Cb's while this was coming in.
    Pretty dark!


  • Registered Users Posts: 6,108 ✭✭✭highdef


    Well according to netweather radar, Lucan (especially the western end) appears to have been right under the core of that shower. It's so slow moving that it looks like it's probably only moving off now. If the radar is to be believed then a LOT of precipitation has fallen over the Lucan/Leixlip area in the past hour or so


  • Posts: 6,025 ✭✭✭[Deleted User]


    highdef wrote: »
    Well according to netweather radar, Lucan (especially the western end) appears to have been right under the core of that shower. It's so slow moving that it looks like it's probably only moving off now. If the radar is to be believed then a LOT of precipitation has fallen over the Lucan/Leixlip area in the past hour or so

    it was the most exciting weather Ive had for a while :o:)


  • Registered Users Posts: 4,784 ✭✭✭thomasj


    Wow! Thats some shower! Have had a heavy prolonged hail shower for the last 5-10 minutes! Only letting up now. Am in clonsilla.


  • Posts: 6,025 ✭✭✭[Deleted User]


    pretty sure Im hearing some thunder, any one else/?


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 482 ✭✭Jim_Kiy


    Rumble of thunder-hail stones


  • Registered Users Posts: 4,784 ✭✭✭thomasj


    Just saw a quick flash followed by the loudest rumble of thunder i have heard since the thundersnow we had last year. Alarms now going off.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 4,784 ✭✭✭thomasj


    thomasj wrote: »
    Just saw a quick flash followed by the loudest rumble of thunder i have heard since the thundersnow we had last year. Alarms now going off.

    And again just now, hail getting heavy again!


  • Registered Users Posts: 5,068 ✭✭✭Iancar29


    Feck it anyways!! I cannot believe I'm
    Missing thiss!!! :(:(:(


  • Registered Users Posts: 6,108 ✭✭✭highdef


    A new cell has just popped up west of the Red cow and is also moving northwards. Looks like areas in a line from the M50 westwards (possibly building est of the M50 too) from around tallaght northwards towards Blanchardstown and beyond are at risk from extremely heavy precipitation in the next while. The parade is Dublin is missing out by only a few kilometres!!!

    Currently lovely here in north Kildare with the sun beaming down and steam coming off the roads!!! lots of convection all round though.


  • Registered Users Posts: 18,058 ✭✭✭✭RobbingBandit


    Slight shower in Ballymun at the moment,but I did just hear thunder,damn I love thunder.


  • Posts: 0 ✭✭✭ Evie Careful Tray


    I know nothing about this stuff, but I just saw what I think is fork lightning over blanchardstown, looked like it was over the blanchardstown centre looking at it from Hartstown direction.


  • Registered Users Posts: 23,716 ✭✭✭✭Larbre34


    Not far from you Thomas J. the thunder is startling, closest i ever heard to hollywood sound effects outside of Florida. Moderate hail has given way to tropical torrents of rain. i see on TV the city centre us escaping


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,655 ✭✭✭delw


    Iancar29 wrote: »
    Feck it anyways!! I cannot believe I'm
    Missing thiss!!! :(:(:(
    reports of thunder in finglas Ian,have you heard any?


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 482 ✭✭Jim_Kiy


    Hopefully the start of an interesting day-strike recorded over Dublin..
    I heard 3 claps of thunder in all..seems to brightening up now.Missed most of the precip.

    http://www.pjbartlett.co.uk/Sferics.htm


  • Posts: 6,025 ✭✭✭[Deleted User]


    yay, we got some interesting weather WOO HOO !!!! The monotony has been broken.


    :D:D:D


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  • Registered Users Posts: 4,784 ✭✭✭thomasj


    Another belt of thunder just now!


This discussion has been closed.
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