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Winter Charts 2011/2012

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Comments

  • #542
    dexter647
    Registered Users Posts: 1,217 ✭✭✭dexter647


    leahyl wrote: »
    This looks bad - is it bad??

    Not at all that looks very promising for cold... A long way out though:)


  • #543
    leahyl
    Registered Users Posts: 14,244 ✭✭✭✭leahyl


    dexter647 wrote: »
    Not at all that looks very promising for cold... A long way out though:)

    :D woohoo!


  • #544
    Musicman2000
    Registered Users Posts: 1,461 ✭✭✭Musicman2000


    leahyl wrote: »
    This looks bad - is it bad??

    Heights rising to the north over greenland is very good, but not a hope it will happen, that high will flatten out over us and bring us back into that mild muck


  • #545
    TheMilkyPirate
    Registered Users Posts: 5,963 ✭✭✭TheMilkyPirate


    Musicman2000 wrote: »
    Heights rising to the north over greenland is very good, but not a hope it will happen, that high will flatten out over us and bring us back into that mild muck

    Oh yee of little faith :pac:


  • #546
    pistolpetes11
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 7,144 Mod ✭✭✭✭pistolpetes11


    Musicman2000 wrote: »
    Heights rising to the north over greenland is very good, but not a hope it will happen, that high will flatten out over us and bring us back into that mild muck

    Looking at the posts lately your really a glass half empty type of poster , thats a great chart , better than anything else we have been given , even if it doesn't materialize thats the type of chart thats supposed to warm a cold lovers heart in FI


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  • #547
    Musicman2000
    Registered Users Posts: 1,461 ✭✭✭Musicman2000


    pistolpetes11 wrote: »
    Looking at the posts lately your really a glass half empty type of poster , thats a great chart , better than anything else we have been given , even if it doesn't materialize thats the type of chart thats supposed to warm a cold lovers heart in FI


    It is a great chart no arguments there, and if its there in the next few runs then it might raise a few eyebrows, the problem is you have a very strong polar vortex and a very cold stratosphere and other teleconnections that are really against northern blocking at the moment.


  • #548
    pistolpetes11
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 7,144 Mod ✭✭✭✭pistolpetes11


    baraca wrote: »
    ifsykj.gif

    All that cool air up there , I hope some comes down to say hello

    183121.png


  • #549
    pistolpetes11
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 7,144 Mod ✭✭✭✭pistolpetes11


    Musicman2000 wrote: »
    It is a great chart no arguments there, and if its there in the next few runs then it might raise a few eyebrows, the problem is you have a very strong polar vortex and a very cold stratosphere and other teleconnections that are really against northern blocking at the moment.

    That is true , but if that High positioning was to verify it would send some mild air up there to upset the stratosphere and vortex , potentially releasing the colder air towards ourselves and eastern Europe.


  • #550
    Su Campu
    Closed Accounts Posts: 4,279 ✭✭✭Su Campu


    I'm afraid the ensembles don't hold out much hope for cold weather for the next two weeks. The 528 stays just a little too far north.

    500-1000 thickness

    mslpeuanim.gif


  • #551
    Caff Caff
    Registered Users Posts: 164 ✭✭Caff Caff


    Su Campu wrote: »
    I'm afraid the ensembles don't hold out much hope for cold weather for the next two weeks. The 528 stays just a little too far north.

    500-1000 thickness

    mslpeuanim.gif

    Means nothing...still early days yet. big drop on temps today, this evening and tonight. A bit bitter out! It's yoyo weather at the moment which is somewhat unusual. At least we have a small break from mild today. The charts cannot be trusted at present:cool: with how things are. Only in time will we know. Right I best go back out and do another snow dance in my nip!!


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  • #552
    Deep Easterly
    Closed Accounts Posts: 5,150 ✭✭✭Deep Easterly


    Caff Caff wrote: »
    It's yoyo weather at the moment which is somewhat unusual.

    :confused:

    I argue that this 'yoyo' weather is very typical for the time of year.


  • #553
    Tom Cruises Left Nut
    Registered Users Posts: 9,010 ✭✭✭Tom Cruises Left Nut


    183165.png

    183166.png

    183167.png


  • #554
    Caff Caff
    Registered Users Posts: 164 ✭✭Caff Caff


    Deep Easterly wrote: »
    :confused:

    I argue that this 'yoyo' weather is very typical for the time of year.

    I disagree...this is more february weather or later like early march. the humidity is woeful and this mild to a plunging cold is not typical of this time of year...particularly if it continues now we are about to enter meteorological winter


  • #555
    pistolpetes11
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 7,144 Mod ✭✭✭✭pistolpetes11


    Su Campu wrote: »
    I'm afraid the ensembles don't hold out much hope for cold weather for the next two weeks. The 528 stays just a little too far north.

    500-1000 thickness

    mslpeuanim.gif

    Is that 528 line not further south now ?

    Is this a live image cause it has changed since last night


  • #556
    Deep Easterly
    Closed Accounts Posts: 5,150 ✭✭✭Deep Easterly


    Caff Caff wrote: »
    I disagree...this is more february weather or later like early march. the humidity is woeful and this mild to a plunging cold is not typical of this time of year...particularly if it continues now we are about to enter meteorological winter

    Average temperature for this time of year is around 7-9c max, 1-2c min. The 'plunging' cold that came in behind the front yesterday was nothing more than average. Late November right through to January is typically the stormiest, most zonal period of the year with mild weather interspersed with cooler spells.

    The charts posted above pretty much show this pattern continuing within the reliable time-frame at least.


  • #557
    pistolpetes11
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 7,144 Mod ✭✭✭✭pistolpetes11


    Start of a downward trend in the NAO ???


    183178.png


  • #558
    pistolpetes11
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 7,144 Mod ✭✭✭✭pistolpetes11


    Latest update going Negative

    183195.png


  • #559
    BEASTERLY
    Registered Users Posts: 1,789 ✭✭✭BEASTERLY


    pistolpetes11 wrote: »
    Latest update going Negative

    183195.png

    Both those NAO and AO predictions are a relief to say the least but whats with the discrepancy between current observation and where the forecast are starting from on the AO forecasts?


  • #560
    pistolpetes11
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 7,144 Mod ✭✭✭✭pistolpetes11


    BEASTERLY wrote: »
    Both those NAO and AO predictions are a relief to say the least but whats with the discrepancy between current observation and where the forecast are starting from on the AO forecasts?

    Im not sure TBH,

    Does anyone know where i could find this type of JET Stream chart for current runs , only seems to be in the archives .

    183282.png


  • #561
    Harps
    Closed Accounts Posts: 3,548 ✭✭✭Harps


    http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?ech=6&code=0&mode=5&carte=1


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  • #562
    TheMilkyPirate
    Registered Users Posts: 5,963 ✭✭✭TheMilkyPirate


    18z is a lovely run..

    o2sd2.png

    GFS a bit more like the last few ecm runs with that high now. Could it be...... dun dun dun


  • #563
    pistolpetes11
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 7,144 Mod ✭✭✭✭pistolpetes11


    starting to look a bit more like it now all rite !

    183294.png


  • #564
    Caff Caff
    Registered Users Posts: 164 ✭✭Caff Caff


    pistolpetes11 wrote: »
    starting to look a bit more like it now all rite !

    183294.png

    Now that is one fine chart...*spurt*:eek:


  • #565
    TheMilkyPirate
    Registered Users Posts: 5,963 ✭✭✭TheMilkyPirate


    Just to help with the building of that ramp..

    2rdxje9.png

    Pure fantasy but it's nice to see it popping up again.


  • #566
    ff9999
    Registered Users Posts: 218 ✭✭ff9999


    pistolpetes11 wrote: »
    starting to look a bit more like it now all rite !

    183294.png

    *JIZZ*


  • #567
    MUSEIST
    Closed Accounts Posts: 3,258 ✭✭✭MUSEIST


    Caff Caff wrote: »
    Now that is one fine chart...*spurt*:eek:
    ff9999 wrote: »
    *JIZZ*


    :eek:


  • #568
    ff9999
    Registered Users Posts: 218 ✭✭ff9999


    MUSEIST wrote: »
    :eek:

    couldn't contain myself


  • #569
    mickger844posts
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 4,466 Mod ✭✭✭✭mickger844posts


    Interesting 0Z Run

    183321.png

    183322.png


  • #570
    nacho libre
    Registered Users Posts: 16,624 ✭✭✭✭nacho libre


    [IMG][/img]PPVO89.gif


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  • #571
    Ambush Rebel 2010
    Registered Users Posts: 139 ✭✭Ambush Rebel 2010


    The above link is not working for me


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