Bye bye Sarkozy

Sierra Oscar · 07-05-2012 12:52pm

Hollande will do quite a lot of backtracking over the coming months, it is going to be cringeworthy.

Although on the other hand, he will likely discredit the entire socialist movement across Europe when the effects of his policies become evident within France.

Icepick · 07-05-2012 1:28pm

Exactly what we don't need, more populist socialism.

Zonda999 · 07-05-2012 3:34pm

I'll be honest, as much as i disliked Sarkozy, a socialist is not what is needed as French president now.

I know little about French politics really but, given how slender the victory for Hollande was, i can't help but think if Sarkozy had been a bit more normal, he would have retained the presidency. The consequences for Europe here could be dire. There will be uncertainty stemming from this for weeks, combined with the Greek results. Oh and I reckon Greece will end up having to call a repeat election..

jmayo · 07-05-2012 4:05pm

Ellis Dee wrote: »

I wish I was a tabloid headline writer, because today my contribution would be:

France tosses dwarf

They should have waited till the English rugby team were in town to give him a proper sendoff.

It is is no loss to see the little napleon wantabe get his marching orders.
It was none of his bloody business to try and interfer in the internal politics of another state. :mad:
He, Merkel and the other often self appointed European high flyers have made a mess out of the last few years.

And no matter what president France has they will still do their own thing.
And if anyone tries to change it they will just not alone bring their own country to a standstill, but half of western Europe once their rail, shipping and aviation down tools.

carveone · 07-05-2012 4:29pm

Permabear wrote: »

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My brother worked in France for a year years and years ago and he said it was unreal the way the government stymied growth. The socialist policies that made it essentially impossible to fire anyone, no matter what they did, had created an environment where companies, especially SMEs, were scared to death to hire anyone at all. So we had the era of CCCs - continuous consecutive contracts.

One need look no further than the economic disaster that was the Mitterrand government of the early 1980s to see why Hollande's victory makes investors jittery.

Does the President have that much power? Surely the Parliament can put a halt to any really harmful ideas that might come about. Until the next parliamentary elections maybe. I wouldn't have thought his policies were extremist - not SF style anyway.

Asian markets are taking a battering this morning after French and Greek election outcomes give rise to fresh concerns about euro stability.

Oil went off a cliff May 2nd to 4th. Down even harder today to $96.78. Vaguely cheering for some maybe?!

icepick wrote:

Exactly what we don't need, more populist socialism.

Or national socialism

carveone · 07-05-2012 4:47pm

Permabear wrote: »

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Euro against GBP at 0.8060, lowest since late 2008:
http://finviz.com/forex_charts.ashx?t=EURGBP&tf=w1

Not with a bang but a whimper perhaps?

The CAC is now up over 2% from its open, but that's just a retrace of the, what 3.5% or more, drop that it had in anticipiation of Hollande's win. Sell on rumour, buy on news... It's not that encouraging.

Greece is a real worry - if there's no political consensus for the reforms Greece is supposed to be implementing then I cannot see it hanging on in the eurozone. Looks like market volatility for the foreseeable future ....

Sierra Oscar · 07-05-2012 4:53pm

In regards the market instability - forgot about Hollande, his victory has been priced into the market for weeks now. The market instability is currently mirroring the instability in Greece - which looks set to have no government and another election in June. The election results showed a sharp decrease in support for the current incumbents - much more so than was foretasted. What we have in Greece now is a parliament fragmented along a dozen lines.

Greece is not going to stay in the Eurozone much longer I would imagine. It probably wont walk away - but I can see the country being forced out if the next government fails to play ball in regards adhering to the terms of the bailout.

Benny_Cake · 07-05-2012 5:04pm

Sierra Oscar wrote: »

In regards the market instability - forgot about Hollande, his victory has been priced into the market for weeks now. The market instability is currently mirroring the instability in Greece - which looks set to have no government and another election in June. The election results showed a sharp decrease in support for the current incumbents - much more so than was foretasted. What we have in Greece now is a parliament fragmented along a dozen lines.

Greece is not going to stay in the Eurozone much longer I would imagine. It probably wont walk away - but I can see the country being forced out if the next government fails to play ball in regards adhering to the terms of the bailout.

It's difficult to see how a government can be formed in Greece, PASOK and New Democracy have 149 seats between them and are 2 short of a majority. This overstates the level of support for them because the first placed party gets a 50 seat bonus - so the pro-bailout side effectively got less than a third of the popular vote. If some sort of coalition can't be cobbled together by New Democracy, then Syriza (radical left) get to have a go at it, but they're unlikely to have any luck either, not least because the Communists - who in Greece remain unreconstructed Stalinists, have said that they won't cooperate with any party. So there is every chance of an election which no one wants or can afford in the next few weeks.

karma_ · 07-05-2012 5:17pm

Permabear wrote: »

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I just love irony.

carveone · 07-05-2012 5:46pm

Benny_Cake wrote: »

It's difficult to see how a government can be formed in Greece, PASOK and New Democracy have 149 seats between them and are 2 short of a majority.

Do you think they can move quickly to gain the support of independents or DIMAR? Or can they work like that over there - we're kinda used to doing these type of deals with the Irish voting system. Is a Syriza/ND coalition even vaguely possible given that Syriza cannot do anything even with the support of Anel (the independent greeks party).

What happens in the worst case - no government for the next few months?

Benny_Cake · 07-05-2012 5:56pm

carveone wrote: »

Do you think they can move quickly to gain the support of independents or DIMAR? Or can they work like that over there - we're kinda used to doing these type of deals with the Irish voting system. Is a Syriza/ND coalition even vaguely possible given that Syriza cannot do anything even with the support of Anel (the independent greeks party).

What happens in the worst case - no government for the next few months?

According to DIMAR, they won't join a pro-bailout government. That would just leave the Independent Greeks who broke away from New Democracy over the issue of the bailout. I wouldn't see what would be in it for either of these parties given that even if a government is formed, elections would seem likely in a few months again and they would have to take the wrath of the electorate. What could happen is that some MP's could break with their parties and back the government perhaps? Like most, I'm only learning about Greek politics now but according to this article, ND will get 3 days to form a government, then Syriza will get 3 days, then PASOK, and if they aren't successful, it's back to the polls.

RichieC · 07-05-2012 8:00pm

I love being reminded by market fundies how they'll punish countries for voting their conscience. Oh wait, no, it makes me sick.

Benny_Cake · 07-05-2012 8:14pm

Looks like New Democracy have already given up trying to form a coalition in Greece - the poisoned chalice is now passed to the Coalition of the Radical Left, and it's hard to see how they'll have any more luck.

rumour · 07-05-2012 8:45pm

southsiderosie wrote: »

Perhaps, but when has Hollande ever demonstrated a sense of guiding principles or vision? 'President Bling-bling' arguably did have a vision for changing France's role in international affairs (and he at least came into office talking about domestic reform). Nothing I have read about Hollande suggests that he has ever done anything but lead from behind - is this really going to be the man to help stabilize Europe?

Qui suis-je?

Mon père était un riche bourgeois (Médecin ORL, propriétaire de plusieurs cliniques) et il militait à l’extrême droite aux côtés de Maître Tixier-Vignancourt et pour l’OAS.

J’ai passé mon enfance à Bois-Guillaume, ville résidentielle (sur les hauteurs de Rouen) où habitent les plus riches normands.

... ...

Je fus élevé chez les « bourges du privé », que je critique constamment à « St Jean-Baptiste de la Salle à Rouen ».

Puis j’ai continué mes études dans la commune des aristocrates et des grands-bourgeois : à NEUILLY SUR SEINE où mes parents avaient acheté une superbe propriété.

Malgré ma fortune et mon patrimoine estimé à plus de 10 Millions d’Euros, je ne paie pas l’ISF car un montage ingénieux sous forme de plusieurs SCI me rend quasiment introuvable par le fisc français.

A la fin des années 70, sortant de l’ENA je sens que la droite va perdre et que Mitterrand est sur la pente ascendante, pour assurer mon avenir je choisis alors de rejoindre le PS.

Je n’ai jamais dirigé une grande ville.

Je n’ai jamais dirigé une grande région.

Je n’ai jamais été ministre ni secrétaire d’état.

Je dirige malgré tout le département de la Corrèze qui est devenu grâce à moi en 4 ans le plus endetté de France (+ 25% de dette soit 3 fois plus que la moyenne nationale) et le seul où le nombre de fonctionnaires a augmenté de 50% dans le même temps (de 831 à 1231).

Pour 2012 dans mon département, j’ai déjà fait voter une hausse de 6.5% de la taxe foncière, de 300% les taxes sur les permis de construire. J’ai supprimé : les bourses étudiantes, la gratuité des transports scolaires, les 1000 € de prime de garde d’enfants et diminué presque toutes les aides aux personnes âgées ou dépendantes.

Je ne déjeune pas au Fouquet's, je vais dans un endroit plus discret mais encore plus chic où j'ai fêté ma récente victoire aux primaires socialistes et où dernièrement j'ai été l'invité d'un assez pauvre, Pierre BERGE. Ma cantine, c'est chez LAURENT dans le 8ème.

J'envisage d'augmenter de 45 milliards d'euros les impôts et taxes en tout genre car c'est plus facile que de diminuer le nombre de fonctionnaires, je souhaite d'ailleurs en embaucher 65.000 de plus ...

Ce qui coûtera 100 milliards à la FRANCE car un fonctionnaire est payé par l’état à vie, sécurité de l’emploi oblige!!!

Je n’aime pas les riches qui gagnent plus de 4000 euros par mois mais j'en gagne 7,5 fois plus avec mes 30.387 € par mois !!!

Donc 63% de plus que le Président de la République (19 331 € par mois) que j'accuse d'être proche des riches ...

Je m’appelle………….

François HOLLANDE

Some background into this character. The french are as deluded as we were voting for Bertie and Brian. For some more acccurate analysis read the economist article

TehDagsBass · 07-05-2012 9:14pm

rumour wrote: »

Some background into this character. The french are as deluded as we were voting for Bertie and Brian. For some more acccurate analysis read the economist article

Indeed. Populist socialism succeeding here will come with a heavy price tag for just about everyone.

Big movements on the markets already and the UK aren't even trading today. If Greece can't pull it together fairly rapidly we're going to be in a fairly terrible situation I would imagine.

Although, in saying that, at this stage I am hoping Greece are made an example of and are removed from the Euro, have their access to credit removed and their access to the free common market removed along with it.

Icepick · 07-05-2012 10:50pm

TehDagsBass wrote: »

and their access to the free common market removed along with it.

no

doomed · 07-05-2012 10:55pm

Its hard to believe the French would elect a Socialist when things have been going so well in Europe.

Wild Bill · 07-05-2012 11:28pm

doomed wrote: »

Its hard to believe the French would elect a Socialist when things have been going so well in Europe.

Yes; 40% youth unemployment in the EU part of Southern Europe.

I really can't understand why they'd ditch all that success. :cool:

20Cent · 08-05-2012 12:36am

It will be interesting to see how things change with the election of Hollande good to have a different viewpoint instead of continuing the failed neoliberal policies which are making things worse. It was very arrogant of Merkel to say the treaty is not up for renegotiation of course it is. Hollande seems to be a very moderate socialist.

carveone · 08-05-2012 1:10am

It was very arrogant of Merkel to say the treaty is not up for renegotiation of course it is.

I believe she had qualified that remark previously by saying that one of the reasons it could not be renegotiated was that Ireland was having a referendum on it. I believe that respecting our sovereignty was a big thing last time around....

Wild Bill · 08-05-2012 8:15am

carveone wrote: »

I believe she had qualified that remark previously by saying that one of the reasons it could not be renegotiated was that Ireland was having a referendum on it. I believe that respecting our sovereignty was a big thing last time around....

It would surely be better to re-negotiate it now? [Reality check; it is going to be renegotiated]

Having the Irish people go through a pointless farce on 31st May is hardly "respecting" anything!

As the current Irish Regime doesn't give a toss for sovereignty or democracy one must regard Merkel's comments as a tad cynical. :mad:

rumour · 08-05-2012 9:26am

20Cent wrote: »

It will be interesting to see how things change with the election of Hollande good to have a different viewpoint instead of continuing the failed neoliberal policies which are making things worse.

This continual reference to 'neoliberalism' is tiring.

The continual expansion of government or state (and 'rights' that go with it) over the past forty years due to consecutive governments of every hue buying elections with state money is coming home to roost.

There is no distinction between socialism and conservatism in this respect. Both are equally guilty of spending money they didn't have. It has become so much the norm everyone expects it can go on forever.

But they have borrowed and lent so much within the eurozone they don't know how it will ever be paid back. If they admit it won't, the lenders are 'busted' and will have to take losses. Investors know this is the case, so they are not going to lend. Sure they are lending to Germany cheaper than anywhere else at the minute but its only a matter of time. If the peripherals don't 'pay' then the German banks have to admit huge losses. Then their bonds go up. (As a side issue their export market is great at the minute making tehm look good but this has a limited life span....China can do every thing Germany does cheaper and will do within 10yrs.)

What are Europe's options? There really are only two options if you believe credit is what makes everything work. There is a third but its much more ugly. Either print more money, thus devaluing...oil, coffee etc will cost more driving up your cost of living and reducing your disposable income, making you poorer. This Germany desperately wants to avoid.

Or reduce government spending and get governments to make commitments in line with the ability of their country to pay.

How is neoliberalism relevant to any of this?

Mon Hollande will indeed have a difficult time, given he won the election by a disjointed right rather than a resounding left he will at some point come up against the third option protectionism or trade barriers. Europe's power to enact these is vastly diminished to what it was thirty years ago. The recent example of suspending sanctions against Iran because Greece and Italy could not afford it gives an indication. Germany with its export driven economy will hardly support trade barriers, but how long can Hollande ignore the extreme elements in France?

All governments of every persuasion left right etc. face these questions. Essentially telling people we cannot afford the states we live in because we have spent 40years indulging ourselves.

Again, why do you think neoliberalism is relevant?

hatrickpatrick · 08-05-2012 9:31am

You left out an option. What about reforming the monetary system so as it's no longer based on an endless debt cycle of imaginary money, and what about introducing extremely strict rules to govern the entire financial sector and make sure it serves the people as a functionary means to an end, and not itself as an end in itself?

Dr Galen · 08-05-2012 9:39am

Can we try and keep this thread OT please, specifically, we're talking about France here and the impact of the Hollande win

Cheers

DrG

Permabear · 08-05-2012 10:11am

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Dannyboy83 · 08-05-2012 10:13am

Its hard to believe the French would elect a Socialist when things have been going so well in Europe.

Just one clarificaiton; This guy is a social democrat, not a socialist.

GSF · 08-05-2012 11:07am

Permabear wrote: »

This post had been deleted.

The left seems to be weded to borrow and default strategy? Whats the French for sucker?

jmayo · 08-05-2012 11:30am

TehDagsBass wrote: »

Indeed. Populist socialism succeeding here will come with a heavy price tag for just about everyone.

Big movements on the markets already and the UK aren't even trading today. If Greece can't pull it together fairly rapidly we're going to be in a fairly terrible situation I would imagine.

Although, in saying that, at this stage I am hoping Greece are made an example of and are removed from the Euro, have their access to credit removed and their access to the free common market removed along with it.

Forget about Greece, watch Spain.
Remember how the banks were supposedly fine and didn't need anymore capital.
Funny how it appears the big two went to government asking them to do something about the third biggest, Bankia.
Does this sound familar to anyone ?

Spain is currently running at approx. 25% unemployment and there is something like 184 billion in property debt.

rumour wrote: »

What are Europe's options? There really are only two options if you believe credit is what makes everything work. There is a third but its much more ugly. Either print more money, thus devaluing...oil, coffee etc will cost more driving up your cost of living and reducing your disposable income, making you poorer. This Germany desperately wants to avoid.

This is going to have to happen sooner or later.

rumour wrote: »

Or reduce government spending and get governments to make commitments in line with the ability of their country to pay.

This has to happen, but if you think about it the "continue the spending brigade" do have a point that savage austerity will not help kickstart growth.
Even Christine Lagarde has recently said that European countries should reduce their budget deficits gradually to avoid further damage to their economies.

The scary thing is that if Greece was to meet it's targets it has to find over 11 billion in cuts.
Just imagine cutting that much in one go.
It makes our problem look like we are in the land of milk and honey.

rumour wrote: »

All governments of every persuasion left right etc. face these questions. Essentially telling people we cannot afford the states we live in because we have spent 40years indulging ourselves.

Again, why do you think neoliberalism is relevant?

I think where some people see the neoliberal brigade come in, is that they can claim their idea of small government/public services appears to be a solution because it means less state borrowing.
Funny thing is that one of the people who adopted some of this, Reagan and his Reaganomics, probably began the push that has American where it is today, that is dependent on Communism China.

In most EU countries in trouble, there are now so many people dependent on government spending you could have a revolution when people's handouts/supports are removed.

Maybe the election of Hollande and the end of her ally sarkozy may finally force Merkel to realise that Germany is going to have to suck it up and allow the printing presses to roll?

Hollande can't possibly finance all his plans and that point will soon dawn on him.
The only thing I hope is that he has some influence on Merkel and that together with the rumblings from the likes of Holland may get her thinking.

RichieC · 08-05-2012 4:04pm

My view is a lot of French people see this banking takeover of Europe for what it is and viewed Sarkozy as one of the architects, or worse, useful idiot and rejected him.

At some stage we as people of Europe will have to face up to the fact that there is a coup going on in Europe presently and reject the toadies that big money has installed.

I'm just interested to see how effective dumping Sarkozy will be in putting the breaks on it. My guess is "not very"

Mr.Micro · 08-05-2012 4:08pm

RichieC wrote: »

My view is a lot of French people see this banking takeover of Europe for what it is and viewed Sarkozy as one of the architects, or worse, useful idiot and rejected him.

At some stage we as people of Europe will have to face up to the fact that there is a coup going on in Europe presently and reject the toadies that big money has installed.

I'm just interested to see how effective dumping Sarkozy will be in putting the breaks on it.

Good riddance to the jumped up poodle.

Bye bye Sarkozy

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