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Limerick City constituency

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Comments

  • Closed Accounts Posts: 3,461 ✭✭✭liammur


    you can be a European country and be outside the EU. Strange you missed that.

    You have NO understanding of economics. How do I know that?

    If ireland were out of the €, it would sink immediately. That's what people need to realise. Why would we sink? Because FF has led to the country to circa €180bn of debt (not to mention private debt,,,how would people pay their mortgages back in €, when getting paid in punts? ),,,,how much would this translate to in irish punts?


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 8,048 ✭✭✭Amazotheamazing


    liammur wrote: »
    You have NO understanding of economics. How do I know that?

    If ireland were out of the €, it would sink immediately. That's what people need to realise. Why would we sink? Because FF has led to the country to circa €180bn of debt (not to mention private debt,,,how would people pay their mortgages back in €, when getting paid in punts? ),,,,how much would this translate to in irish punts?

    I studied economics in college.

    I agree with you btw, that's why I won't ever vote for SF's economic policy.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 3,461 ✭✭✭liammur


    I studied economics in college.

    I agree with you btw, that's why I won't ever vote for SF's economic policy.

    Fair enough.

    Tell me do you think SF's economic policies are much worse than FF's?


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 8,048 ✭✭✭Amazotheamazing


    liammur wrote: »
    Fair enough.

    Tell me do you think SF's economic policies are much worse than FF's?

    In what way? Fianna Fail's policies have been reactionary. It's genuinely hard to know what was plain simple bad policy and how much was sheer panic, imo.

    SF's policies could destroy Ireland, at any rate they'd lead to capital flight (imo), which would have long term impact on what kind of economy Ireland will have in the recovery.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 3,461 ✭✭✭liammur


    In what way? Fianna Fail's policies have been reactionary. It's genuinely hard to know what was plain simple bad policy and how much was sheer panic, imo.

    SF's policies could destroy Ireland, at any rate they'd lead to capital flight (imo), which would have long term impact on what kind of economy Ireland will have in the recovery.

    I know where you are coming from re SF, but imo no party could have been worse. How on earth did they manage to get the country €180bn in debt and rising everyday.


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  • Closed Accounts Posts: 8,048 ✭✭✭Amazotheamazing


    liammur wrote: »
    I know where you are coming from re SF, but imo no party could have been worse. How on earth did they manage to get the country €180bn in debt and rising everyday.

    Be that as it may, it's not really relevant. The only questions Ireland needs to worry about is where we're going, we all know where we are and why we're here.

    We know FF destroyed Ireland, it's time to start asking who's going to rebuild it and how?

    Tbh, no party has a magic bullet solution to Ireland's problems. It'll take years of compromise and probably a lot of luck to get back on track.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 3,461 ✭✭✭liammur


    Be that as it may, it's not really relevant. The only questions Ireland needs to worry about is where we're going, we all know where we are and why we're here.

    We know FF destroyed Ireland, it's time to start asking who's going to rebuild it and how?

    Tbh, no party has a magic bullet solution to Ireland's problems. It'll take years of compromise and probably a lot of luck to get back on track.

    Agreed.


  • Registered Users Posts: 3,098 ✭✭✭Browney7


    Don't see it. 18 months ago he got nearly 900 first preference votes in the North Ward. He'd need to find at least another 5000 votes to be anywhere near elected. Even 5,000 votes probably wouldn't be enough as SF traditionally don't get transfers. A better analyst than me could tell how each candidate will lose out due to new boundary. I've heard it suggested that O'Donnell will lose out more than the others.

    In the last general election the first preference votes went as follows

    O'Dea 19,082
    Noonan 7,507
    O'Sullivan 5,098
    O'Donnell 5,094
    Power 3,569
    Quinlivan got 2,081

    It looks like the only way Power will get elected is if O'Dea carries Power across the line. We've no idea of how much O'Dea's vote will decrease by or his his transfers will go to FF, his is a largely personal vote I would think. It's fairly certain that FG's, Labour's and SF's vote will increase therefore even if Quinlivan's vote doubles, it wouldn't counteract the increase in FG's and Labour's vote.

    With that in mind, is it likely Quinlivan will have doubled or tripled his vote in the past four years? It's possible, but is it likely?

    Amazo I was looking at electionsireland.org there and had a good look around on it. I reckon Labour could be shooting themselves in the foot running 2 candidates. O'Dea should exceed the quota on the first round. I'd imagine that will be around the 11000 mark. Do you know the size of the electorate of the new Limerick city constituency?

    I reckon Noonan will exceed the quota with the bulk of his transfers going to O'Donnell. Now the last time we had a good few independents and a green candidate who together polled around 2000ish votes and add in Tim O'Malley who polled 3354 votes and Noreen Ryan who polled 1391 votes. Now I'd imagine a lot of Quinlivan's base would be situated in the city and not out near Cappamore and Hospital and eastern county Limerick which is now gone.

    I reckon a fair chunk of O'Dea's voters will desert him and these could well go to Quinlivan and Noonan. The Limerick city constituency will be interesting but the fact that Mossy isn't too transfer friendly could work against him.

    If FG manage their vote properly they should get two in. I reckon it will go something like this and in the following order:

    Noonan, O'Dea, O'Donnell and O'Sullivan/Quinlivan. If Limerick was still a five seater he would have been laughing I think


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 8,048 ✭✭✭Amazotheamazing


    Browney7 wrote: »
    Amazo I was looking at electionsireland.org there and had a good look around on it. I reckon Labour could be shooting themselves in the foot running 2 candidates. O'Dea should exceed the quota on the first round. I'd imagine that will be around the 11000 mark. Do you know the size of the electorate of the new Limerick city constituency?

    I reckon Noonan will exceed the quota with the bulk of his transfers going to O'Donnell. Now the last time we had a good few independents and a green candidate who together polled around 2000ish votes and add in Tim O'Malley who polled 3354 votes and Noreen Ryan who polled 1391 votes. Now I'd imagine a lot of Quinlivan's base would be situated in the city and not out near Cappamore and Hospital and eastern county Limerick which is now gone.

    I reckon a fair chunk of O'Dea's voters will desert him and these could well go to Quinlivan and Noonan. The Limerick city constituency will be interesting but the fact that Mossy isn't too transfer friendly could work against him.

    If FG manage their vote properly they should get two in. I reckon it will go something like this and in the following order:

    Noonan, O'Dea, O'Donnell and O'Sullivan/Quinlivan. If Limerick was still a five seater he would have been laughing I think

    Depends, Leddin got a higher first preference in the 2009 local elections than Quinlivan and there should be a swing to Labour as much as any swing to SF.

    We're dealing in predicting the future so I don't want to go too far into pure speculation. Until we know what's happened O'Dea's vote we won't know who'll be elected, there's just no way of knowing, imo. I personally can't see another 5,000 or so people voting for Quinlivan (that would be a massive shift in voters) but it could happen. Traditionally SF don't get transfers so Quinlivan needs a massive first preference. You can be fairly sure that whichever Labour candidate is eliminated will transfer in large numbers to the other (most likely Leddin eliminated early and this will push O'Sullivan up).


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,207 ✭✭✭gaf1983


    Speaking of SF candidates (and while I know this isn't related to the Limerick constituency) it'll be interesting to see if Jean McConville's daughter does run against Gerry Adams in Louth:

    http://www.independent.ie/national-news/mcconville-daughter-considers-run-against-adams-for-dail-seat-2507458.html


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  • Closed Accounts Posts: 104 ✭✭nickobrien1985


    liammur wrote: »
    No IDA jobs for Limerick since FF got into power in 1997 = No votes.

    They deserve to be particularly hammered in both Limerick East and West.

    Really?
    There was plenty of jobs in Limerick at the time.

    FF brought in one the highest minimum wages and dole rates in the entire world.
    Now you moan about it?

    Anybody who thinks a 'change' in government is going to change our daily lives is away with fairies.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 104 ✭✭nickobrien1985


    Does Maurice Quinlivan know the McCabes killers?
    I guess Republican circles in Limerick were/are small.

    How come Maurice is proud of his brother's republican activities?

    Overall, why in God's name would anyone vote for a party that has killed Irish men, women and children, members of the Irish police force, have been involved in criminality such as the Northern Bank Raid as revealed by Wikileaks.

    Why vote for a party that wants to increase the rate of corporation tax and the tax on people who work.

    As for making no cutbacks? Look at Sinn Féin's record in the North. It was Bairbre De Bruin who made the decision to shut down Omagh General Hospital. I thought they fought for the 'ordinary folk'.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 104 ✭✭nickobrien1985


    Hi does anyone know if Cian Prenderville is actually working-class? Or an 'ordinary worker'. I know he comes from Caherdavin, which not really 'working class' nor does he have a 'working class Limerick accent'.
    Many friends of mine have said he's middle-class.

    Does anyone know what his parents do for a living?
    How can represent working class people?


  • Registered Users Posts: 919 ✭✭✭jbkenn


    Hi does anyone know if Cian Prenderville is actually working-class? Or an 'ordinary worker'.
    There are only two "classes" in Ireland, those who work for a living and those who don't, simple fact, those who work for a living reside in all area's of the country, as do now, thanks to the HSE, those who don't, ask anybody in Raheen.
    I know he comes from Caherdavin, which not really 'working class'
    Caherdavin is working class, the vast majority of residents work for a living, although, again, thanks to the HSE, we now have a fair share of the non working class.
    nor does he have a 'working class Limerick accent'.
    Many friends of mine have said he's middle-class.
    Whats a "working class accent" if you mean he can string more than two intelligible sentences together no he has'nt
    Does anyone know what his parents do for a living?
    How can represent working class people?

    What has, "what his parents do for a living", got to do with anything?, as parents, they worked very hard to give him every opportunity in life they possibly could, that makes them part of the class who work for a living, where's the crime in that?
    He is running as a Socialist Party/ULA candidate, he has no political experience, ergo, he has no chance, but good luck to him anyway, he is a very personable human being.

    jbkenn


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 104 ✭✭nickobrien1985


    jbkenn wrote: »
    There are only two "classes" in Ireland, those who work for a living and those who don't, simple fact, those who work for a living reside in all area's of the country, as do now, thanks to the HSE, those who don't, ask anybody in Raheen.

    Caherdavin is working class, the vast majority of residents work for a living, although, again, thanks to the HSE, we now have a fair share of the non working class.

    Whats a "working class accent" if you mean he can string more than two intelligible sentences together no he has'nt



    What has, "what his parents do for a living", got to do with anything?, as parents, they worked very hard to give him every opportunity in life they possibly could, that makes them part of the class who work for a living, where's the crime in that?
    He is running as a Socialist Party/ULA candidate, he has no political experience, ergo, he has no chance, but good luck to him anyway, he is a very personable human being.

    jbkenn

    What's a working class accent? - 'A boy da kid how's it going?'
    Do you genuinely don't know what a Limerick working class accent is?

    Ironically I'm from Caherdavin. We're not working class.
    Take the average value of a house here and tell me its working class.

    If Prenderville has nothing to fear why doesn't he reveal his parents occupations and salaries.

    Two classes of people? Working and non-working?
    Emmm no.
    There's working class (Moyross + Southill), Middle-class (Caherdavin, Raheen, Dooradoyle) and Upper-Middle Class (North Circular Rd, Castletroy)

    What does it matter what 'class' Cian is?
    I met many members of the Socialist Party such as Dan Finn (ex-member) who happened to be educated at the posh Gonzaga College in Dublin.
    Paul Murphy from the leafy suburbs of Killiney, Co. Dublin. These two used to rant on about how the 'unemployed and workers' were getting screwed yet they'd head back home to their fancy homes in the evening.

    I find it quite hypocritical of someone from social class A,B, or C trying to represent the working classes.
    I'm just making sure Cian isn't one of them.


  • Moderators, Social & Fun Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 30,832 Mod ✭✭✭✭Insect Overlord


    You're talking absolute rubbish.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 104 ✭✭nickobrien1985


    how?

    Is Cian Prenderville working class? simple question.

    Someone posh trying to represent, is like an unemployed man trying to represent IBEC


    Could one represent IBEC if they're unemployed?

    How many of the local Limerick candidate want to raise the rate of corporation tax?


  • Moderators, Social & Fun Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 30,832 Mod ✭✭✭✭Insect Overlord


    He's not "posh". I don't think I've ever met anyone "posh" in Caherdavin.

    The guy spent his whole teenage life educating himself on social policies, economics, human and civil rights. He dedicated countless hours to causes that impacted greatly on local people in Limerick. He's given speeches and lectures in both Ireland and America.

    I'm not going to be giving him my first preference this year, but I'll support him as a person at every opportunity I can. The effort he puts behind his beliefs is immense. What his parents do for a living means nothing in this context.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 104 ✭✭nickobrien1985


    He's not "posh". I don't think I've ever met anyone "posh" in Caherdavin.

    The guy spent his whole teenage life educating himself on social policies, economics, human and civil rights. He dedicated countless hours to causes that impacted greatly on local people in Limerick. He's given speeches and lectures in both Ireland and America.

    I'm not going to be giving him my first preference this year, but I'll support him as a person at every opportunity I can. The effort he puts behind his beliefs is immense. What his parents do for a living means nothing in this context.

    I'm from Caherdavin, I'm posh.

    Spent his life educating himself? Really so do most of us.

    I saw he was in the US - how did he afford the airfare? Surely if you're poor you wouldn't be able to go. Again maybe he could afford it a) he's got money b) mommy and daddy have money.

    I believe you can't speak for the working class if you're not one of them.
    It's like representing an African American Group if you're white.

    Really I've never met crazier people than those in the Socialist party.
    Anyone with have a brain realises this


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 104 ✭✭nickobrien1985


    Insect Overlord. - You seem to be quite biased towards him


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  • Closed Accounts Posts: 104 ✭✭nickobrien1985


    Why is Cian Prenderville on Facebook?

    Facebook is a Multinational part-owned by the evil Goldman Sachs.
    I think the Socialist party and Cian are hypocritical to use this platform.


    I wonder what Facebook employees and Marc Zuckerberg himself who feel about Cian's plans to increase the rate of corporation tax in Ireland.
    It would lead to more highly qualified people leaving the country and joining the dole queue.


  • Moderators, Social & Fun Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 30,832 Mod ✭✭✭✭Insect Overlord


    Insect Overlord. - You seem to be quite biased towards him

    And you seem to be unusually biased against him. The logic behind your argument is twisted. I honestly can't see how you can back up the point you're trying to make. Your comments about how he could afford to go to America are pure speculation, clutching at straws even.

    I went to school with Cian, both primary and secondary. We never really got on very well when we were younger, but having followed his progress over the last six or seven years I've developed a great respect for him.


  • Registered Users Posts: 919 ✭✭✭jbkenn


    What's a working class accent? - 'A boy da kid how's it going?'
    Do you genuinely don't know what a Limerick working class accent is?
    That is the accent and attitude of the non working class
    Ironically I'm from Caherdavin. We're not working class.
    Take the average value of a house here and tell me its working class.
    So am I, the class who work for a living, the value of houses has no bearing on anything.
    If Prenderville has nothing to fear why doesn't he reveal his parents occupations and salaries.
    None of his, or your, business
    Two classes of people? Working and non-working?
    Emmm no.
    There's working class (Moyross + Southill),
    Unfortunately, mainly the non working class
    Middle-class (Caherdavin, Raheen, Dooradoyle) and Upper-Middle Class (North Circular Rd, Castletroy)
    Again, the class who work for a living.
    What does it matter what 'class' Cian is?
    I met many members of the Socialist Party such as Dan Finn (ex-member) who happened to be educated at the posh Gonzaga College in Dublin.
    Paul Murphy from the leafy suburbs of Killiney, Co. Dublin. These two used to rant on about how the 'unemployed and workers' were getting screwed yet they'd head back home to their fancy homes in the evening.
    So, they happen to hold a belief in Socialism, I don't, but will still defend their right, and, not pass judgement on them.
    I find it quite hypocritical of someone from social class A,B, or C trying to represent the working classes.
    I don't, they are choosing to represent them.
    I'm just making sure Cian isn't one of them.
    He has put himself forward as a candidate, let the electorate decide.

    jbkenn


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 104 ✭✭nickobrien1985


    And you seem to be unusually biased against him. The logic behind your argument is twisted. I honestly can't see how you can back up the point you're trying to make. Your comments about how he could afford to go to America are pure speculation, clutching at straws even.

    I went to school with Cian, both primary and secondary. We never really got on very well when we were younger, but having followed his progress over the last six or seven years I've developed a great respect for him.


    You can't see the point I'm trying to make?
    Ardscoil Ris didn't educate you well enough did they?

    I remember him trying organise a protest in school. He was one who always tried to get under the skin of the teachers. He was an idealist living in cuckoo-land

    He's screwed up in the head.

    Anyway if I made similar points about a Fine Gael or Fianna Fail candidate you'd probably laugh and agree.

    Socialists love to dish out criticism but they can't seem to take it


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 104 ✭✭nickobrien1985


    How can you be middle-class and far-left?
    Its a contradiction in itself.

    Is Cian self-loathing?

    Also Cian has deleted some very valid points I put on his Facebook page.
    He's like all politicians, they'll tolerate freedom of speech up to a point, i.e. as long as it suits them


  • Moderators, Social & Fun Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 30,832 Mod ✭✭✭✭Insect Overlord


    He's screwed up in the head.
    Is Cian self-loathing?

    This thread is not for your personal crusade against a local politician. Please do not post in it again.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 3,461 ✭✭✭liammur


    Really?
    There was plenty of jobs in Limerick at the time.

    FF brought in one the highest minimum wages and dole rates in the entire world.
    Now you moan about it?

    Anybody who thinks a 'change' in government is going to change our daily lives is away with fairies.

    I'm moaning about that before 1997, we (in Limerick ) had 1 of the lowest unemployment rates in the country, now we have 1 of the highest, if not the highest.


  • Registered Users Posts: 3,098 ✭✭✭Browney7



    Really I've never met crazier people than those in the Socialist party.
    Anyone with half a brain realises this

    FYP. Oh the ironing.

    Regarding your point about representing the working class. Tell that to Joe Higgins in Dublin west who's originally from Kerry.

    I never agreed with him but I, like Insect have respect for his beliefs and convictions. Leave the intelligent discussions to the grown ups like a good man.


  • Registered Users Posts: 9,366 ✭✭✭ninty9er


    I think it's fair to say that Cian would never through force of necessity have had a life that would be uncomfortable, but he is deeply committed to the socialist ideals which he represents.

    Whether his parents are well off or not is irrelevant to his ideology, though I think it would be fair to say his background would probably be incompatible with his political beliefs.

    I know Cian is deeply committed to the socialist ideals, though I completely disagree with the views of the ULA in the majority of policy areas.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 122 ✭✭watchingthepols


    Does Maurice Quinlivan know the McCabes killers?

    Look like Gerry Mc Cabe is being dusted off & given a fresh suit of cloths for the election.

    And here was I hoping that the election was going to be about things like the cuts in my pay packet, emigration, unemployment, cuts to minimum wage and social welfare etc.

    I suppose that some people are happy to grasp at any straw other than discuss the real issues affecting our lives in 2011.


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