Falklands War The Second?

DipStick McSwindler · 18-02-2012 5:34pm #1

This post has been deleted.

Delancey · 18-02-2012 6:26pm

No , there is a lot of ' Sabre Rattling ' all right coming from Argentina but IMO thats all it is - the British built a substantial airport on the islands after the war and they can , if required , quickly re-inforce their air presence there not to mention the rumoured presence of their attack submarines in the South Atlantic.
Ironically if the Argentines had never attacked in 1982 now would be the time to do it - Royal Navy has no working aircraft carriers now so there would not be much they could do about an invasion.
Royal Navy also now has only a limited amphibious attack capability.

Argentina is waging a successful diplomatic campaign against the islands and seems to be winning support from neighbouring countries - in the long run this may prove decisive .

Lemming · 18-02-2012 7:41pm

Delancey wrote: »

Argentina is waging a successful diplomatic campaign against the islands and seems to be winning support from neighbouring countries - in the long run this may prove decisive .

It remains to be seen just how long that can be sustained. There's a lot of populism about the whole matter; and populism gives way for practicality at the end of the day when people look at the returns.

Chile for one, I do not see sustaining this for long as they enjoy economic dealings with the Falklands. Nor do I see other nations keeping up a protracted level of embargo or any notions of blockade when their own businesses perhaps start to suffer on account of this. Ultimately, if/whenever oil starts getting drilled and the Falkland Islanders are looking to trade, you'll find all that "solidarity" suddenly becomes inconvenient and ends up drifting in the wind.

Still, De Kischner is playing a dangerous game that she may not be able to stop without toppling both herself & her government if she's not careful. Her government has its population whipped into quite a frenzy over the matter, and with the 30th anniversary of Argentina's military defeat looming close, emotions are going to be very raw and unchecked. De Kischner may not be able to stop what she's started without a face-losing climb-down.

Realistically though, no. There wont be a shooting match unless the Argentinians really lose the run of themselves.

Maoltuile · 18-02-2012 7:45pm

feeney92 wrote: »

just want to get peoples opinion on this topic, anybody reckon theyll have another go at each other?

No. It's BS being fanned by the Tories, desperate to distract from their domestic unpopularity with a bit of jingoism. The deployments of the warship, (allegedly) the nuclear sub and the royal heir don't have an equivalent on the South American side, so far as I can see.

And an English Tory government accusing others of "colonialism" takes the biscuit.

Maoltuile · 18-02-2012 7:47pm

Delancey wrote: »

No , there is a lot of ' Sabre Rattling ' all right coming from Argentina but IMO thats all it is - the British built a substantial airport on the islands after the war and they can , if required , quickly re-inforce their air presence there not to mention the rumoured presence of their attack submarines in the South Atlantic.
Ironically if the Argentines had never attacked in 1982 now would be the time to do it - Royal Navy has no working aircraft carriers now so there would not be much they could do about an invasion.
Royal Navy also now has only a limited amphibious attack capability.

And the Harriers are gone, and the troops are still tied up in Afghanistan. As well, there's a lack of friendly South American juntas (and I don't think Obama will open the NATO armouries to them the way Ronnie did).

OS119 · 18-02-2012 8:00pm

Delancey wrote: »

...Argentina is waging a successful diplomatic campaign against the islands and seems to be winning support from neighbouring countries - in the long run this may prove decisive .

while i agree - to some extent - i have a nasty feeling that the current Argentine government is forcing itself into a corner on this issue, and that the scale/nature of the rethoric its using internally may mean that when the UN finally says 'not interested' (as it always does), and the rest of MERCOSUR says 'no, we aren't going to establish economic sanctions against the UK and EU over the FI - grow up', the Argentine govt is going to face an electorate that it exposed to the heady whiff of nationalism without any further peaceful options left open to it.

its then going to face the delightful choice of saying 'oh well, thats that - shows over, nothing to see here' or having a pop at the Islands.

one of those will result in its immediate loss of office and abject humiliation, the other a short term guarenteed 99% poll rating, the possibility of having every street in Argentina named after fair Christina, and if it all goes wrong the possibility that a scapeoat can be found in the Americans, the betrayel by the already hated military, or some kind of fabrication of British aggression that the other MERCOSUR countries will pretend to believe.

one requires moral courage and ends in political death, the other is expedient, will result in young men losing their lives for nothing except political ego, and may allow our politician to live to fight another day.

so, dear readers, which do we think the average politician will go for?

BlaasForRafa · 18-02-2012 8:13pm

Maoltuile wrote: »

And the Harriers are gone, and the troops are still tied up in Afghanistan. As well, there's a lack of friendly South American juntas (and I don't think Obama will open the NATO armouries to them the way Ronnie did).

Have you looked at the capabilities of Argentina's air force lately? (heres a hint, they don't have much)

tac foley · 18-02-2012 8:15pm

Submarine-launched cruise missiles.

UK - many.

Argentina - none.

tac

Maoltuile · 18-02-2012 8:19pm

BlaasForRafa wrote: »

Have you looked at the capabilities of Argentina's air force lately? (heres a hint, they don't have much)

They don't need to *have* much, unless the UK fancies flying CAPs from the UK to cover any fleet they send.

xflyer · 18-02-2012 8:22pm

Maoltuile wrote: »

No. It's BS being fanned by the Tories, desperate to distract from their domestic unpopularity with a bit of jingoism. The deployments of the warship, (allegedly) the nuclear sub and the royal heir don't have an equivalent on the South American side, so far as I can see.

And an English Tory government accusing others of "colonialism" takes the biscuit.

The Argentinians started the jingoism. Warships are routinely deployed to the Falklands. The new one simply replaced the previous one and RAF SAR crews are routinely rotated through the islands whether they be royalty or not.

You've a hilariously distorted view of the situation. It's quite obvious that the sabre rattling is an election trick on the part of the Argentines.

That Harriers may be gone, but Typhoons are deployed there. With their capability any air attack would be cut to pieces from a long way out.

In fact the Argentine forces are incapable of launching an invasion. The carrier is long gone. The Air Force are still using the same aircraft from 1982, mildly upgraded, Mirages, Skyhawks. Museum pieces then, positively archaic now.

The Armada is but a shadow of it's former self and fundamentally incapable of transporting enough troops to the island to make a difference.

Add that there is no possibility of surprise like the the last time and it's pure escapism on the part of a failed Argentine government.

There will be no second war and if the Argentines are thinking all this sabre rattling will bring the British to the negotiating table then they don't know their history.

The only possible tactic that might work would be to send civilian boats to 'liberate' the Malvinas. As far as I know some people in Argentina still think the people there are suffering under the yoke of British oppression!!! In 1982 they actually brought leaflets for the inhabitants telling them not to worry they were now liberated from the British! LOL

I am pie · 18-02-2012 8:29pm

OS119 wrote: »

while i agree - to some extent - i have a nasty feeling that the current Argentine government is forcing itself into a corner on this issue, and that the scale/nature of the rethoric its using internally may mean that when the UN finally says 'not interested' (as it always does), and the rest of MERCOSUR says 'no, we aren't going to establish economic sanctions against the UK and EU over the FI - grow up', the Argentine govt is going to face an electorate that it exposed to the heady whiff of nationalism without any further peaceful options left open to it.

its then going to face the delightful choice of saying 'oh well, thats that - shows over, nothing to see here' or having a pop at the Islands.

one of those will result in its immediate loss of office and abject humiliation, the other a short term guarenteed 99% poll rating, the possibility of having every street in Argentina named after fair Christina, and if it all goes wrong the possibility that a scapeoat can be found in the Americans, the betrayel by the already hated military, or some kind of fabrication of British aggression that the other MERCOSUR countries will pretend to believe.

one requires moral courage and ends in political death, the other is expedient, will result in young men losing their lives for nothing except political ego, and may allow our politician to live to fight another day.

so, dear readers, which do we think the average politician will go for?

This again, please include your analysis the hugely Anti Military background of the leftwing government and try to understand that they are resented by x military personnel. They absolutely will not launch another doomed to fail invasion.

Try and go beyond comparing argentina of 30 years ago to that of today. An entirely new government is in place, they are motivated by an attempt to stabilise the latin american bloc into one cohesive society. They believe this regional political unity affords them a greater diplomatic voice to table their sovereignty claim at the UN. They are going for exclusively political and diplomatic means of getting the outcome they want.

The uk's response to this is to send down the boys singing rule britannia until them argies work out who is boss. Terrific.

Maoltuile · 18-02-2012 8:38pm

xflyer wrote: »

In 1982 they actually brought leaflets for the inhabitants telling them not to worry they were now liberated from the British! LOL

"In 1982" the inhabitants of the Falklands actually weren't full British citizens.

And the inhabitants of Hong Kong haven't been accorded the same 'rights' to be British before being handed over to Communist China. But, this is turning into a political discussion.

Maoltuile · 18-02-2012 8:47pm

xflyer wrote: »

The Argentinians started the jingoism. Warships are routinely deployed to the Falklands. The new one simply replaced the previous one and RAF SAR crews are routinely rotated through the islands whether they be royalty or not.

You've a hilariously distorted view of the situation. It's quite obvious that the sabre rattling is an election trick on the part of the Argentines.

That Harriers may be gone, but Typhoons are deployed there. With their capability any air attack would be cut to pieces from a long way out.

In fact the Argentine forces are incapable of launching an invasion. The carrier is long gone. The Air Force are still using the same aircraft from 1982, mildly upgraded, Mirages, Skyhawks. Museum pieces then, positively archaic now.

The Armada is but a shadow of it's former self and fundamentally incapable of transporting enough troops to the island to make a difference.

I don't actually believe that this is going to come to military conflict, as I mentioned. And I think that ignoring the enthusiastic Tory involvement in ratcheting the situation up is woefully myopic. The suggestion that the royal heir just happens to be posted there is laughable. And the 'warship' usually deployed down there isn't typically a state of the art destroyer with more important things to be doing.

The carrier wasn't used in the invasion, apart from carrying troops, and took no part in the war. On a separate issue - Typhoons, really? Has anyone bought those white elephants without bribery?

Add that there is no possibility of surprise like the the last time and it's pure escapism on the part of a failed Argentine government.

The Argentines have said nothing, done nothing to give any indication that they've any interest in war. All of the military activity has been on the British side.

OS119 · 18-02-2012 8:54pm

I am pie wrote: »

...They are going for exclusively political and diplomatic means of getting the outcome they want....

and if it doesn't work?

you are suggesting that the current Argentine government is uniquely equipped in the world to handle the public failure of its flagship policy - that it will face no electoral consequences for being re-buffed in the world stage, that the electorate who were told 'we will get the Islands back' will hold no grudge against a government that failed to deliver?

OS119 · 18-02-2012 8:59pm

Maoltuile wrote: »

...The Argentines have said nothing, done nothing to give any indication that they've any interest in war. All of the military activity has been on the British side.

so, just to be clear, if the British PM, standing in front of a map of Ireland coloured in with the Union Flag, said that the UK wanted to take control of the whole of the Island of Ireland - though exclusively by peaceful means of course - and the Irish government chose to move an Air Defence radar onto the Wicklow Mountains, its the Irish Government that would be sabre-rattling?

raher1 · 18-02-2012 9:05pm

its all about the oil under the falklands,its ocean plate touches the argentine coast. the falklands are kinda independent as well just use britian for defence. ya think the argentines would know better,there economy is on the rise so any war would mean ruin even if they win.:)

Maoltuile · 18-02-2012 9:22pm

OS119 wrote: »

so, just to be clear, if the British PM, standing in front of a map of Ireland coloured in with the Union Flag, said that the UK wanted to take control of the whole of the Island of Ireland - though exclusively by peaceful means of course - and the Irish government chose to move an Air Defence radar onto the Wicklow Mountains, its the Irish Government that would be sabre-rattling?

The Argentines have been making this case (and it is a strong case) to the UN for years. This didn't just pop out of nowhere as a surprise.

It's been the Tories who've chosen to ramp up the military side. I see that you're not going to dispute this, which is to your credit.

OS119 · 18-02-2012 9:41pm

Maoltuile wrote: »

The Argentines have been making this case (and it is a strong case) to the UN for years. This didn't just pop out of nowhere as a surprise.

your logic is flawed - if Argentina is not ramping up because its made the same claim for years, how is the UK ramping up when it has been deploying same forces to the Islands since 1983?

four fighters - firstly F-4 Phantoms, then Tornado F3's, now Typhoon.

1 major surface combatant as South Atlantic Patrol Ship (covering an area from Assension Island to the Caribean, to the FI and out to Southern Africa) - either a Type 42 Destroyer, a Type 22 or T23 Frigate, and now a Type 45 Destroyer.

1 infantry Company - it used to be an Infantry Battalion, but it was decided it wasn't neccesary.

1 tanker aircraft.

1 transport aircraft.

1 submarine - a submarine covers the same patrol area as the SAPS, but is only deployed for about 6 months of the year.

that it - exactly the same forces have been on/around the Islands since the 1982 war. i imagine if you googled it you could even get the ships names and patrol dates.

MANUTD99 · 18-02-2012 9:51pm

I've been reading a little lately about South America. It is becoming more like a union these days and not conforming to what Western powers would like them to be.

Does anybody know what the likes of Chavez of Venezuela, Bolivia, Ecuador and more importantly Brazil have had any say on this matter and I wonder if they would back Argentina in any way?

bwatson · 18-02-2012 9:56pm

Maoltuile wrote: »

I don't actually believe that this is going to come to military conflict, as I mentioned. And I think that ignoring the enthusiastic Tory involvement in ratcheting the situation up is woefully myopic. The suggestion that the royal heir just happens to be posted there is laughable. And the 'warship' usually deployed down there isn't typically a state of the art destroyer with more important things to be doing.

The carrier wasn't used in the invasion, apart from carrying troops, and took no part in the war. On a separate issue - Typhoons, really? Has anyone bought those white elephants without bribery?

The Argentines have said nothing, done nothing to give any indication that they've any interest in war. All of the military activity has been on the British side.

You are one deluded fool. What have the tories done except maintain that the wishes of the islanders will always be the most important thing?

The Argentines have no interest in any war? Maybe they should stop talking about islands inhabited by a people who are repulsed by them then. Maybe they should stop calling press conferences in front of maps of the islands filled with the colours of the Argentine flag.

British military activity in the south atlantic is at the same level as it has been for the last thirty years.

scudzilla · 18-02-2012 9:57pm

tac foley wrote: »

Submarine-launched cruise missiles.

UK - many.

Argentina - none.

tac

Which means nothing, The Brits had much better missiles last time around, and unless they're going for a strike on the mainland, which they won't, then these missiles mean nothing

bwatson · 18-02-2012 10:00pm

MANUTD99 wrote: »

I've been reading a little lately about South America. It is becoming more like a union these days and not conforming to what Western powers would like them to be.

Does anybody know what the likes of Chavez of Venezuela, Bolivia, Ecuador and more importantly Brazil have had any say on this matter and I wonder if they would back Argentina in any way?

Mr Chavez has expressed his solidarity with Argentina and made a couple of predictibly clueless statements regarding the actions of the "British Empire" and has pledged venezuelan military support should things kick off.

bwatson · 18-02-2012 10:05pm

scudzilla wrote: »

Which means nothing, The Brits had much better missiles last time around, and unless they're going for a strike on the mainland, which they won't, then these missiles mean nothing

I'd love to see Britain take note of the US navy's way of doing things when it comes to hostile threats. Basically, I would be totally supportive of the Royal Navy flattening as many Argentine government buildings, air defences, power stations, important pieces infrastructure, military instillations etc as possible should they dare threaten British citizens again. Use up the stocks of Tomahawks. Dissuade them from ever attempting again.

OS119 · 18-02-2012 10:21pm

scudzilla wrote: »

Which means nothing, The Brits had much better missiles last time around, and unless they're going for a strike on the mainland, which they won't, then these missiles mean nothing

err, the UK didn't have these missiles, or anything like these missiles last time - it had the Vulcan Bomber force, which it used to attack/degrade Port Stanley Airport from Assension Island - and used a significant part of its tanker force to do so.

the Vulcan is long gone, but Tommahawk can do the same job with far less risk and effort - it can also do very bad things to ships...

bwatson · 18-02-2012 10:25pm

OS119 wrote: »

err, the UK didn't have these missiles, or anything like these missiles last time - it had the Vulcan Bomber force, which it used to attack/degrade Port Stanley Airport from Assension Island - and used a significant part of its tanker force to do so.

the Vulcan is long gone, but Tommahawk can do the same job with far less risk and effort - it can also do very bad things to ships...

Added to that, it is so much more difficult to to bring down a cruise missile than it is to bring down a hostile aircraft. The government need to state how they would react to any argentine military activity. It would very soon put a stop to this soap opera.

54kroc · 18-02-2012 10:28pm

bwatson wrote: »

I'd love to see Britain take note of the US navy's way of doing things when it comes to hostile threats. Basically, I would be totally supportive of the Royal Navy flattening as many Argentine government buildings, air defences, power stations, important pieces infrastructure, military instillations etc as possible should they dare threaten British citizens again. Use up the stocks of Tomahawks. Dissuade them from ever attempting again.

Theres a big difference between the US and the little old UK.

tac foley · 18-02-2012 10:34pm

scudzilla wrote: »

Which means nothing, The Brits had much better missiles last time around, and unless they're going for a strike on the mainland, which they won't, then these missiles mean nothing

The main targets - airfields and so on are on the mainland.

The Falklands is sovereign territory of the UK.

An attack on the Falklands is therefore an attack on the UK.

A carefully-considered response, such as levelling the nearest air base to Buenos Aires, might get the attention of the Argentinian authorities.

tac

tac foley · 18-02-2012 10:36pm

54kroc wrote: »

Theres a big difference between the US and the little old UK.

The Royal Navy was an enthusiastic lobber of submarine-launched cruise missiles in GW2.

What makes you think that they are not so enthusiastic about doing it all over again with a bunch of invading dagoes uppity Argentinians?

tac

bwatson · 18-02-2012 11:08pm

54kroc wrote: »

Theres a big difference between the US and the little old UK.

Little old UK can still pack a fairly powerful punch if it wants to though, don't you fret.

Lemming · 18-02-2012 11:17pm

Maoltuile wrote: »

And the inhabitants of Hong Kong haven't been accorded the same 'rights' to be British before being handed over to Communist China. But, this is turning into a political discussion.

Britain, had Hong Kong on 'lease' on agreement from the Chinese by agreements dating back to the mid 19th century. Those treaty agreements expired. You are effectively trying to compare an apple to an orange. The histories of Hong Kong & the Falkland Islands are not even remotely similar in political or socio-economic terms.

Maoltuile wrote: »

The suggestion that the royal heir just happens to be posted there is laughable. And the 'warship' usually deployed down there isn't typically a state of the art destroyer with more important things to be doing.

Two things;

1. Being posted to the Falklands is considered one of the sh*tiest deployments for UK forces as far as I am aware. Others who post here can correct me on that if I'm wrong. It has been suspected that the RAF deployed Prince William to make a point within its own ranks that whilst yes he may be heir to the throne, he's still wearing the uniform and has to abide by orders just like anyone else, even if it includes deployment to a fairly sh*te location.

2. As has already been pointed out, the deployment of the new type 95 destroyer is replacing an older model, & is something that has been done on a recurring basis. So Argentina trying to make capital from this is just dishonest politics at its "finest".

On a separate issue - Typhoons, really? Has anyone bought those white elephants without bribery?

So, you're flying a Skyhawk. Do you fancy going up against a modern fighter? Any modern fighter? No? Well then what difference does it make if it's a Typhoon or a F22 when your own airforce capabilities have effectively stood still for thirty years? You are well and truly neck deep in it.

The Argentines have said nothing, done nothing to give any indication that they've any interest in war. All of the military activity has been on the British side.

I'll direct you to a direct quote from De Kischner;

"Give peace a chance, give peace a chance. Not war".

Now, so far, the only politicians to have used the 'W' word have been the Argentinians. Take from that what you will.

MANUTD99 · 18-02-2012 11:41pm

bwatson wrote: »

I'd love to see Britain take note of the US navy's way of doing things when it comes to hostile threats. Basically, I would be totally supportive of the Royal Navy flattening as many Argentine government buildings, air defences, power stations, important pieces infrastructure, military instillations etc as possible should they dare threaten British citizens again. Use up the stocks of Tomahawks. Dissuade them from ever attempting again.

You'd be a fantastic politician in America so you would. Lets claim our land which is 8000 miles from England and against the evil Argentina which is 300 miles away

Falklands War The Second?

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