Fiscal Treaty Megathread [Poll Reset]

[Deleted User] · 12-06-2012 2:27pm

donegal_road wrote: »

hey.. stop talking down the ecomony!
....
μετακινήσετε τα χρήματά σας προς Καναδάς

probably one of the better places to put it!

EURATS · 12-06-2012 2:29pm

dolanbaker wrote: »

EURATS wrote: »

There "IS" a plan? Care to share?

It's called wealth preservation and stuff averyone else!

There will very likely be a partial breakup of the Eurozone within the next year, simply because it won't be possible to bail out Italy.

Cyprus looks like it will be next.

There is insufficient growth to keep the current system operating, it will break and break soon.

Would have to say the euro and the eurozone wasn't a a bad thing for trade and travel. It's what it has turned into that's the problem. a bunch of incompetent rip off merchants

cbyrd · 12-06-2012 2:31pm

I have dug a hole.. lined it with binliners and i'm getting a strong box today.. now what i want to know is would it be better to get it in Sterling or Dollars? the euro if it goes to a punt nua, will devalue by anything but the figure they're using is 30% . . what's my best bet?

EURATS · 12-06-2012 2:33pm

cbyrd wrote: »

I have dug a hole.. lined it with binliners and i'm getting a strong box today.. now what i want to know is would it be better to get it in Sterling or Dollars? the euro if it goes to a punt nua, will devalue by anything but the figure they're using is 30% . . what's my best bet?

Buy gold

cbyrd · 12-06-2012 2:40pm

EURATS wrote: »

Buy gold

I have asked my husband repeatedly but still nothing. ..

I hope to be proved wrong but with the current interest rate it's as good in my hole as theirs

[Deleted User] · 12-06-2012 2:44pm

cbyrd wrote: »

I have dug a hole.. lined it with binliners and i'm getting a strong box today.. now what i want to know is would it be better to get it in Sterling or Dollars? the euro if it goes to a punt nua, will devalue by anything but the figure they're using is 30% . . what's my best bet?

Fill it with cases of whiskey, no matter what happens, whiskey will be useful.

In the best case scenario, you're stocked up for parties for years to come and in the worst case you can trade it for food!

And for anything in between you can use it instead of money to trade for work or stuff.

Scofflaw · 12-06-2012 6:22pm

dolanbaker wrote: »

Well I suppose all that ECB "bazooka" money had to turn up somewhere.

It's the same money just spinning around in the system, robbing peter to pay paul while running up the printing presses to pay John, and of course sending the bill to the taxpayers.

Where the hell is the growth going to come from to "create" the wealth to repay this enornous debt going to come from?

I have asked that question several time and

No one has the answer!

Growth and inflation. Same thing that brought us down from our 1991 state of 96% debt/GDP without paying back a penny - but probably not as quickly this time.

cordially,
Scofflaw

[Deleted User] · 12-06-2012 6:24pm

Scofflaw wrote: »

Growth and inflation. Same thing that brought us down from our 1991 state of 96% debt/GDP without paying back a penny - but probably not as quickly this time.

cordially,
Scofflaw

Back then there was "room to grow" there isn't anymore, that's the problem!

Scofflaw · 12-06-2012 6:48pm

dolanbaker wrote: »

Back then there was "room to grow" there isn't anymore, that's the problem!

Hardly the case. I appreciate you're probably making a point about resource constraints, and as I said already I agree with that in general, but the idea that that means the Irish economy has no room to grow is really pretty silly, given that we did manage growth in 2011, and are expecting to do so this year.

cordially,
Scofflaw

[Deleted User] · 12-06-2012 6:57pm

Scofflaw wrote: »

Hardly the case. I appreciate you're probably making a point about resource constraints, and as I said already I agree with that in general, but the idea that that means the Irish economy has no room to grow is really pretty silly, given that we did manage growth in 2011, and are expecting to do so this year.

cordially,
Scofflaw

Growth was achieved, but we're still at a significantly lower level of economic activity than we were five years ago, for us the grow, another country has to go into serious decline, that may well happen given what is going on in Greece & Spain right now.

but the real issue I see is not just resource constraints (something that I see as a real show stopper) but the inability to grow fast enough to pay down debt while maintaining living standards and services.

The financial sector really needs reforming from top to bottom to be able to serve (rather than rule over) an economy that is operating in a finite constrained world.

Scofflaw · 12-06-2012 7:34pm

dolanbaker wrote: »

Growth was achieved, but we're still at a significantly lower level of economic activity than we were five years ago,

True, but kind of irrelevant. We need to grow from where we are now, not where we were five years ago.

dolanbaker wrote: »

for us the grow, another country has to go into serious decline, that may well happen given what is going on in Greece & Spain right now.

Er, what? No, economics doesn't actually work like that.

dolanbaker wrote: »

but the real issue I see is not just resource constraints (something that I see as a real show stopper) but the inability to grow fast enough to pay down debt while maintaining living standards and services.

Since that growth rate is only about 1%, it's much less of a problem than you believe.

dolanbaker wrote: »

The financial sector really needs reforming from top to bottom to be able to serve (rather than rule over) an economy that is operating in a finite constrained world.

True enough.

cordially,
Scofflaw

Noreen1 · 12-06-2012 7:56pm

dolanbaker wrote: »

Growth was achieved, but we're still at a significantly lower level of economic activity than we were five years ago, for us the grow, another country has to go into serious decline, that may well happen given what is going on in Greece & Spain right now.

but the real issue I see is not just resource constraints (something that I see as a real show stopper) but the inability to grow fast enough to pay down debt while maintaining living standards and services.

The financial sector really needs reforming from top to bottom to be able to serve (rather than rule over) an economy that is operating in a finite constrained world.

And therein lies the problem.

I wonder what would happen if the entire G8 engaged in Q.E.?
(I know that's impossible - but what would happen if it were possible?)

[Deleted User] · 13-06-2012 8:36am

Scofflaw wrote: »

Er, what? No, economics doesn't actually work like that.

cordially,
Scofflaw

It does when there are hard resource limits in place, and they are there right now. Demand pushes prices up until "Price rationing" kicks in and reduces demand, price falls - demand increases, but as some countries can afford to pay a higher price the demand has shifted to those countries leaving less for those who found the price too high.

As a result we see less oil being available to the OECD countries as Chindia locks in an ever increasing part of the available fuel.

The rules that state that supply will meet demand are being tested to the limit!

cbyrd · 13-06-2012 9:32am

The advice from a friend in the bank is gold... and to do it sooner rather than later. . .:eek:

Dyr · 13-06-2012 9:49am

cbyrd wrote: »

The advice from a friend in the bank is gold... and to do it sooner rather than later. . .:eek:

Your friend works in THE bank? Seems legit

cbyrd · 13-06-2012 10:40am

she's of the lower down browbeaten keeps uptodate variety.. .. .. she saw a facebook update and messaged me with what to do...i went to school with her til she moved to canada..she came back 3 years ago to the local bank and went from the higher up to lower down to facilitate her family..she's definately not on the banks side

makes you wonder though how much we're not being told......

Calibos · 13-06-2012 10:49am

cbyrd wrote: »

she's of the lower down browbeaten keeps uptodate variety.. .. .. she saw a facebook update and messaged me with what to do...i went to school with her til she moved to canada..she came back 3 years ago to the local bank and went from the higher up to lower down to facilitate her family..she's definately not on the banks side makes you wonder though how much we're not being told......

You do realise that not all bank tellers are macro economics Masters/PhD holders don't you?

cbyrd · 13-06-2012 11:04am

Calibos wrote: »

You do realise that not all bank tellers are macro economics Masters/PhD holders don't you?

She has a masters in economics and is a qualified accountant... as i said she took this job in Ireland cos she has 2 kids and now one on the way...she couldn't get a decent job when she came back from canada cos she was pregnant at the time...i'd trust her more than some 'experts' .i'd also trust someone with canadian qualifications ...;)

K-9 · 13-06-2012 11:09am

cbyrd wrote: »

She has a masters in economics and is a qualified accountant... as i said she took this job in Ireland cos she has 2 kids and now one on the way...she couldn't get a decent job when she came back from canada cos she was pregnant at the time...i'd trust her more than some 'experts' .i'd also trust someone with canadian qualifications ...;)

There's a lot of people who think gold is the next bubble though. Wouldn't know much about it but there will be another bubble as there always is, hopefully gold isn't it!

cbyrd · 13-06-2012 11:11am

My only problem with gold is the price is so high already..its like buying a house here in 2007... maybe wheat or rice would be better...

[Deleted User] · 13-06-2012 12:27pm

Whatever you do, make sure you spread it about a bit.

Because, the truth is that no one really know how this situation is going to pan out!

Justice for the individual · 13-06-2012 3:57pm

cbyrd wrote: »

My only problem with gold is the price is so high already..its like buying a house here in 2007... maybe wheat or rice would be better...

At least if that investment fails, you can eat it!

Dave! · 13-06-2012 4:16pm

What a versatile thread... Discuss the Fiscal Treaty, moan about the EU, theorise about pan-European conspiracies, and offer/receive financial advice!

/off to buy gold

Scofflaw · 13-06-2012 5:20pm

dolanbaker wrote: »

It does when there are hard resource limits in place, and they are there right now. Demand pushes prices up until "Price rationing" kicks in and reduces demand, price falls - demand increases, but as some countries can afford to pay a higher price the demand has shifted to those countries leaving less for those who found the price too high.

As a result we see less oil being available to the OECD countries as Chindia locks in an ever increasing part of the available fuel.

The rules that state that supply will meet demand are being tested to the limit!

So you're saying that oil limits will limit Irish growth?

cordially,
Scofflaw

[Deleted User] · 13-06-2012 5:51pm

Scofflaw wrote: »

So you're saying that oil limits will limit Irish growth?

cordially,
Scofflaw

Indirectly, yes!

If people are experiencing difficuilies caused by high ol prices, they are likely to spend less on discretionary goods & services, this of course would have a downward pressure on the economy.

At the first hints of growth, the oil price jumps due to supply limitations, thus snuffing out that growth very quickly.

We saw that happen earlier this year, and the affects are happening quicker than in 2008 but with a shallower price boom-crash trend.

In the meantime, countries that use oil more effectively (rather than efficiently) are benefitting because their operating costs are still much cheaper as they don't have to pay high wages that allow employees to have SUV's and the like.

Scofflaw · 13-06-2012 7:17pm

dolanbaker wrote: »

Indirectly, yes!

If people are experiencing difficuilies caused by high ol prices, they are likely to spend less on discretionary goods & services, this of course would have a downward pressure on the economy.

At the first hints of growth, the oil price jumps due to supply limitations, thus snuffing out that growth very quickly.

We saw that happen earlier this year, and the affects are happening quicker than in 2008 but with a shallower price boom-crash trend.

In the meantime, countries that use oil more effectively (rather than efficiently) are benefitting because their operating costs are still much cheaper as they don't have to pay high wages that allow employees to have SUV's and the like.

OK - my problems with that are (a) Ireland's demand is miniscule on a global scale, and (b) we're already seeing growth.

cordially,
Scofflaw

[Deleted User] · 13-06-2012 9:13pm

Scofflaw wrote: »

OK - my problems with that are (a) Ireland's demand is miniscule on a global scale, and (b) we're already seeing growth.

cordially,
Scofflaw

Miniscule, yes, but the amount available is still shrinking due to increased internal consumption by oil producers and Chindia expansion.

Ireland is one a a number of countries that are having stunted "growth" all of which are still below levels seen a few years ago, that's not growth it's recovery to a previous high.

Fiscal Treaty Megathread [Poll Reset]

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