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Australian Economy Thread

135

Comments

  • #62
    commited
    Registered Users Posts: 2,280 ✭✭✭commited


    In Exile wrote: »
    I know it's an old quote but it couldn't be more true.

    We were blessed about a year ago when we managed to pick up a 3 bed unit/house in Moonee Ponds for under $400.

    House is in a brilliant location and well maintained so we decided to see if they were willing to sell. Between a mortgage, body corp and everything else excluding essential bills, our monthly outlay would go from 1700 a month to about 4500.

    I don't want to move out further, where even though it's affordable, it's not worth it when travel costs are taken into account.

    Buying a 3 bed semi in Limerick and continue renting here would work out cheaper, and if I managed to be able to rent out the place at home, I'd be able to clear the mortgage in less than 8 years.
    Old quote but still true, I think I put the numbers somewhere else but it's definitely cheaper to rent than buy in Sydney at the moment. Ireland now, however, is painting a much different picture as I've discovered recently :(


  • #63
    catbear
    Closed Accounts Posts: 5,092 ✭✭✭catbear


    commited wrote: »
    Ireland now, however, is painting a much different picture as I've discovered recently :(
    ?


  • #64
    commited
    Registered Users Posts: 2,280 ✭✭✭commited


    catbear wrote: »
    ?
    We're shortly going to return from Oz to Ireland after 4 years and rents are just nuts in Dublin now :(


  • #65
    catbear
    Closed Accounts Posts: 5,092 ✭✭✭catbear


    commited wrote: »
    We're shortly going to return from Oz to Ireland after 4 years and rents are just nuts in Dublin now :(

    I've been hearing that. Due to finish in oz myself soon and having done the sums going to regional cities in the UK is definitely more attractive than Dublin for that very reason.


  • #66
    commited
    Registered Users Posts: 2,280 ✭✭✭commited


    catbear wrote: »
    I've been hearing that. Due to finish in oz myself soon and having done the sums going to regional cities in the UK is definitely more attractive than Dublin for that very reason.
    100% agree, the salaries are actually higher in Northern England than they are in Dublin (for our fields anyway) - absolute madness! Only problem is that family and friends aren't there which is the motivator to return.


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  • #67
    gctest50
    Registered Users Posts: 9,605 ✭✭✭gctest50


    catbear wrote: »
    I've been hearing that. Due to finish in oz myself soon and having done the sums going to regional cities in the UK is definitely more attractive than Dublin for that very reason.


    not great :( :
    More than 40 people queued to view the single-bedroom apartment which was advertised for rent for €1350.

    The advertisement went live yesterday at 2pm, and by 6.30pm the apartment was taken off the market.
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    Brian Keenan of Keenan Property Management, who was showing the house, said the demand for rental housing in Dublin is “huge”.

    “The current demand for housing is huge. Everything is moving pretty quickly, more so in days as opposed to weeks,” he said.


    http://www.independent.ie/irish-news/news/rental-crisis-onebedroom-apartment-for-1350-snapped-up-in-five-hours-30404790.html


  • #68
    statina
    Registered Users Posts: 330 ✭✭statina


    gctest50 wrote: »
    not great :( :

    Due to return home to Dublin as well in the next couple of months. Can't believe the raise in rent in Dublin over the last few months.


  • #69
    gctest50
    Registered Users Posts: 9,605 ✭✭✭gctest50


    catbear wrote: »
    Following on from the recent BHP 20% workforce reduction...

    http://www.macrobusiness.com.au/2014/07/75k-mining-job-to-disappear/

    No real surprise but the shockwaves are spreading in Perth.

    Chinese moves in Peru
    A Chinese consortium is buying Glencore Xstrata's copper mine in Peru in a $6bn (£3.6bn) all-cash deal, marking one of China's largest mining acquisitions.

    http://www.bbc.com/news/business-27017623


  • #70
    commited
    Registered Users Posts: 2,280 ✭✭✭commited


    gctest50 wrote: »
    not great :( :
    That article is typical Indo dross, every article is written to instil panic into the general public.


  • #71
    catbear
    Closed Accounts Posts: 5,092 ✭✭✭catbear


    commited wrote: »
    That article is typical Indo dross, every article is written to instill panic into the general public.
    It's hard to know what's going on really. The state owned banks need to recoup for the taxpayer which means liquidating repo'd property and will use an upswing in prices to offload onto the market. Tenants in these bank owned Buy-to-let properties from the bubble era are put out which only increases rental demand. My own feeling on it is that this is a temporary post bust bounce instigated by suppressed demand released but being sustained by market manipulators like the state funded banks.

    I have no idea how long it will last, I was completely flummoxed by how long the bubble lasted as I thought it was screamingly obvious back in 05/06. I think Mugatu summed up how I felt at the time.
    i-feel-like-im-taking-crazy-pills.gif


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  • #72
    catbear
    Closed Accounts Posts: 5,092 ✭✭✭catbear


    ScreenHunter_573-Dec.-05-10.24.jpg
    Housing now taking up the lions share of Australian bank lending, I wonder how many of the business loans are related to servicing the property sector? House of cards anyone?

    In roughly the same time frame Iron ore exports have crowded out other exports and China becomes Australia's most important market.
    China+and+Iron+Ore+Share+of+Exports.JPG

    Hopefully China doesn't sneeze, otherwise Australia will get pneumonia.


  • #73
    catbear
    Closed Accounts Posts: 5,092 ✭✭✭catbear


    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-08-07/unemployment-data-abs-july/5654926
    Mixed bag really but headline unemployment rate hits 12 year high at 6.4.

    The ABS methodology states:
    According to the ABS definition, a person who has worked for one hour or more for payment or someone who has worked without pay in a family business, is considered employed regardless of whether they consider themselves employed or not.

    ScreenHunter_1100-Feb.-04-15.19.jpg
    The Roy Morgan survey, in contrast, defines any respondent who is not employed full or part-time and who is looking for paid employment as being unemployed…

    I think it's safe to assume that the true unemployment figure is higher than official sources.


  • #74
    sin_city
    Registered Users Posts: 899 ✭✭✭sin_city


    catbear wrote: »
    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-08-07/unemployment-data-abs-july/5654926
    Mixed bag really but headline unemployment rate hits 12 year high at 6.4.

    The ABS methodology states:


    ScreenHunter_1100-Feb.-04-15.19.jpg



    I think it's safe to assume that the true unemployment figure is higher than official sources.

    I think things will be like this until the Liberals can reasonably fix up the mess that Labor left.


  • #75
    jank
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 13,018 ✭✭✭✭jank


    Yes and the same can be said for every economy in the world


  • #76
    catbear
    Closed Accounts Posts: 5,092 ✭✭✭catbear


    LAUwU3J.png
    I believe the US rate is now around 6% although how each economy measures it can vary greatly.


  • #77
    sin_city
    Registered Users Posts: 899 ✭✭✭sin_city


    catbear wrote: »
    LAUwU3J.png
    I believe the US rate is now around 6% although how each economy measures it can vary greatly.

    Sure is...

    If you give up looking for a job in the US you are not on the unemployed list and if you get part time work you are also not on the list.

    The number of people that have given up looking for work in the US is the highest since records began and most of the new jobs being created are part time (and they are mostly estimated job numbers)

    So if you are sick and you die you are no longer sick…..same in the US, if you are looking for a job and you give up you are no longer on the unemployed list…..Thankfully there is a little more sanity here.


  • #78
    catbear
    Closed Accounts Posts: 5,092 ✭✭✭catbear


    Although the ABS and Ray Morgan aren't accurate there's still a big varience between them. I wonder what the rate would be if using Irish measures?

    What I'm certain of is the turnaround in Perth. Plenty of Aussie colleagues suddenly researching their international options.


  • #79
    catbear
    Closed Accounts Posts: 5,092 ✭✭✭catbear


    Steve Keen talks about the variance between ABS and Roy Morgan surveys.
    http://www.businessspectator.com.au/article/2014/8/11/australian-news/truth-about-australias-unemployment-rate-shocker


  • #80
    catbear
    Closed Accounts Posts: 5,092 ✭✭✭catbear


    WA downgraded again by Moody's.


  • #81
    catbear
    Closed Accounts Posts: 5,092 ✭✭✭catbear


    He says that as Chinese authorities appreciate, China's built more houses and apartments than it needs. Demand for Australian ore will grind to a halt, triggering a weakness in the economy that will expose the banks.
    "There are going to be more apartments than people in China and all of a sudden if [the construction] stops, then what is the floor on the spot price of iron ore? We don't know what that is," he said.


    Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/business/the-economy/australias-housing-bubble-is-real-and-banks-are-to-blame-says-author-20140828-109ahx.html#ixzz3BeiIPzz9

    The comments section is interesting.


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  • #82
    Stacks Mad
    Registered Users Posts: 85 ✭✭Stacks Mad


    The comments in that article are am..... scary . What really amazes me most is working with people who ran from Ireland post 2007 and believe that every thing is great here !!! Saying "Ah Ireland was different " to I respond "in what way exactly" short memory. I am just glad to look on and watch the deck of cards go higher for a while at least.


  • #83
    catbear
    Closed Accounts Posts: 5,092 ✭✭✭catbear


    20140830_FNC602.png

    Sorry about the large image, couldn't find a smaller link but Australia is 55% overvalued to rents, 33% overvalued to wages.

    http://www.economist.com/news/finance-and-economics/21614167-easy-money-inflating-house-prices-across-much-globe-frothy-again?fsrc=scn/tw_ec/frothy_again


  • #84
    res ipsa
    Registered Users Posts: 692 ✭✭✭res ipsa


    Kiwis & Canada far worse though.


  • #85
    catbear
    Closed Accounts Posts: 5,092 ✭✭✭catbear


    ScreenHunter_4203-Sep.-15-10.50.jpg

    The Bank of International Settlements says that Australian housing is about 50% above its long term average value against rents and 40% above when compared to average incomes.
    Full report: http://www.bis.org/publ/qtrpdf/r_qt1409h.htm


  • #86
    catbear
    Closed Accounts Posts: 5,092 ✭✭✭catbear


    The median house price to income of Sydney is nine times, compared to 6.2 times in New York and 7.3 times in London. Even Adelaide is more expensive than New York on price-to-income basis.

    Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/business/the-economy/australias-housing-bubble-is-real-and-banks-are-to-blame-says-author-20140828-109ahx.html#ixzz3EKGLKkqu

    So Adelaide boardies, is it worth it?


  • #87
    catbear
    Closed Accounts Posts: 5,092 ✭✭✭catbear


    Irelands youth unemployment rate (under 25) falls to 14.9

    Meanwhile in Australia......
    Young people have been particularly hard-hit, with unemployment for 15-24-year-olds hitting 14.1 per cent - the highest level since October 2001.
    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-08-07/unemployment-surges-to-12-year-high-at-64-pc/5654926


  • #88
    sin_city
    Registered Users Posts: 899 ✭✭✭sin_city


    How are unemployment stats measured in Ireland Vs Australia?

    Do they use the same process?


  • #89
    catbear
    Closed Accounts Posts: 5,092 ✭✭✭catbear


    sin_city wrote: »
    How are unemployment stats measured in Ireland Vs Australia?

    Do they use the same process?

    The Irish stat is stated as taken from the live register whereas the Aus stats are compiled by survey sample, hence the sudden sharp variances seen recently.


  • #90
    seipeal1
    Registered Users Posts: 182 ✭✭seipeal1


    catbear wrote: »
    Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/business/the-economy/australias-housing-bubble-is-real-and-banks-are-to-blame-says-author-20140828-109ahx.html#ixzz3EKGLKkqu

    So Adelaide boardies, is it worth it?


    Yes, it is.


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  • #91
    mandrake04
    Registered Users Posts: 4,435 ✭✭✭mandrake04


    seipeal1 wrote: »
    Yes, it is.

    What's the average house price in a good area?


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