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The Football / Soccer Tips Thread v2

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    #9662
    stingerro
    Registered Users Posts: 1,687 ✭✭✭stingerro


    It's google translated from Greek so far from perfect english, but looks interesting:
    The behavior of teams finish in the last half a dozen of the Premier League over the past five years, varies considerably in the last two months of the season (April-May).

    The average number of goals scored in games between teams of the bottom-6 from August to March is 2.52 with the home team to score 1.46 and 1.06 goals guests on average. The rates in 1-X-2 is 43% -34% -23%. The number of bookings received by hosts is 15.4, while the score was 23.1.

    The last two months of the season the number of goals goes up to 2.92 per match, with the hosts scoring 1.5 and guests 1.42 goals against average. The rates in 1-X-2 is 42% -27% -31%. The number of bookings received by hosts is 20.8, while the score was 19.8.

    The trends are clear and show us how the pressure of the world and the result has a negative impact on their home, especially in the defense sector. The hosts receive 34% more goals and 35% more bookings, while only 3% scoring more goals. Aces decreasing by 1%, the draws of 7% and therefore the double increase by 8%.

    In today's Blackburn-Wigan players to pressure the home team is huge, and to save the team of Steve Mob should literally be a miracle happened. In games against teams of bottom-6 during the months of August-March, Blackburn had a home record of 1-1-2, 1.75 goals and conceding 22.5 bookings on average.

    So, based on the analysis above, in today's games are much more likely to accept these goals, bookings and lose the match. The over 1.5 goals at 2.20 Wigan and Blackburn over 2.5 to 2.25 cards are worth, and of course to double the 2.75.


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    #9663
    manual_man
    Registered Users Posts: 15,262 ✭✭✭✭manual_man


    Blackburn v Wigan cards looks a treat. Two teams scrapping for survival bound to be a bit of needle


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    #9664
    bradlente
    Registered Users Posts: 2,909 ✭✭✭bradlente


    Unders in the Cluj derby in Romania tomorrow is likely judging each teams home/away form.

    Home side unders in 6/10 last home games,Away side unders in 9/10 away games.The home teams recent home form would be a bit worrying with 3/5 going overs,But away side CFR Cluj have a good back line(only conceded 6 in their last 10 away games)and are top by 5 points.They can win the league with a win and I can see it being a tight game with neither side wanting a loss.

    Can be got at 3/4.


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    #9665
    Nuri Sahin
    Site Banned Posts: 26,456 ✭✭✭✭Nuri Sahin


    kryogen wrote: »
    I have made a poor attempt at a write up of it in my log if you wanna check that out and give me a bit of feedback on it actually?

    Fancy Elfsborg quite strongly myself despite the recent return to form of goteborg, think 1/1 is a great price

    Well I've decided to not do any research starting from now (useless Russians), so I'll have a look at your log amongst others later for sure :)


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    #9666
    Shane St.
    Registered Users Posts: 2,797 ✭✭✭Shane St.


    manual_man wrote: »
    considering a few quid on Liverpool -1 at 9/2. If they start like they finished against Chelski, easy money :)

    Will they play a strong team? I can definitely see Chelsea resting the likes of Drogba and Lampard


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    #9667
    Headshot
    Registered Users Posts: 53,839 ✭✭✭✭Headshot


    West ham v Cardiff

    Going for anytime scorer Cole @ 11/10
    Likes to score at home and was very impressive in the last match


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    #9668
    wp_rathead
    Registered Users Posts: 10,067 ✭✭✭✭wp_rathead


    Rovers average 35.5 card index points at home
    Wigan average 35.5 card index points away

    Match earlier this season was a card fest

    Ref is Clattenburg who not too shy on cards (mind you he is not card crazy either)

    3/4 last games between the two in Ewood have been over 2.5 goals
    7/9 last games between the two have been over 2.5 goals

    For me I'm going for Over 2.5 Goals and Over 40 index points @ 15/8

    C'mon Rovers


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    #9669
    manual_man
    Registered Users Posts: 15,262 ✭✭✭✭manual_man


    Shane St. wrote: »
    manual_man wrote: »
    considering a few quid on Liverpool -1 at 9/2. If they start like they finished against Chelski, easy money :)

    Will they play a strong team? I can definitely see Chelsea resting the likes of Drogba and Lampard

    I think Liverpool will be angry. They'll want the win badly. I just checked there 13/1 Liverpool -2 is ridiculous, can see myself putting a few quid on -1 -2, might wait for the teamsheets all the same


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    #9670
    manual_man
    Registered Users Posts: 15,262 ✭✭✭✭manual_man


    wprathead wrote: »
    Rovers average 35.5 card index points at home
    Wigan average 35.5 card index points away

    Match earlier this season was a card fest

    Ref is Clattenburg who not too shy on cards (mind you he is not card crazy either)

    3/4 last games between the two in Ewood have been over 2.5 goals
    7/9 last games between the two have been over 2.5 goals

    For me I'm going for Over 2.5 Goals and Over 40 index points @ 15/8

    C'mon Rovers

    he's dished out a fair few reds too. worth a look


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    #9671
    grohlisagod
    Registered Users Posts: 1,998 ✭✭✭grohlisagod


    manual_man wrote: »
    I think Liverpool will be angry. They'll want the win badly. I just checked there 13/1 Liverpool -2 is ridiculous, can see myself putting a few quid on -1 -2, might wait for the teamsheets all the same

    Liverpool don't score enough goals to make -2 worthwhile imo. Rarely get 2 never mind 3.

    I think Chelsea will take the game seriously after the weekend's results. If they win both games they can still finish 4th.

    I reckon it'll be 1-1 or 2-1 Liverpool.


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    #9672
    Avfctom
    Registered Users Posts: 1,905 ✭✭✭Avfctom


    Lasagna Diarra wrote: »
    Damn it the CSKA Moscow game is tomorrow


    Whys that was listed for today strange


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    #9673
    alfalion
    Registered Users Posts: 279 ✭✭alfalion


    grohlisagod wrote: »
    Liverpool don't score enough goals to make -2 worthwhile imo. Rarely get 2 never mind 3.

    I think Chelsea will take the game seriously after the weekend's results. If they win both games they can still finish 4th.

    I reckon it'll be 1-1 or 2-1 Liverpool.


    chelsea always seem to get the first goal and fall asleep late in the end of the game i think first half chelsea ft liverpool 26-1 is a great bet and was close to happening the other day


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    #9674
    Formation
    Registered Users Posts: 712 ✭✭✭Formation


    manual_man wrote: »
    I think Liverpool will be angry. They'll want the win badly. I just checked there 13/1 Liverpool -2 is ridiculous, can see myself putting a few quid on -1 -2, might wait for the teamsheets all the same
    as a supporter i wish you were right, but your not. Carroll fluking 1.5 goals does not a useful stat make!


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    #9675
    Formation
    Registered Users Posts: 712 ✭✭✭Formation


    Definately nicking that goals and bookings double. Thanks.


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    #9676
    Alpish
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 168 ✭✭Alpish


    Any feedback on this bet, Moses to score and Wigan to win at 7/1?


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    #9677
    MikeyGorse
    Registered Users Posts: 738 ✭✭✭MikeyGorse


    Wigan,West Ham & Wrexham for me,just under 8/1. small stakes


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    #9678
    Formation
    Registered Users Posts: 712 ✭✭✭Formation


    wprathead wrote: »
    Rovers average 35.5 card index points at home
    Wigan average 35.5 card index points away

    Match earlier this season was a card fest

    Ref is Clattenburg who not too shy on cards (mind you he is not card crazy either)

    3/4 last games between the two in Ewood have been over 2.5 goals
    7/9 last games between the two have been over 2.5 goals

    For me I'm going for Over 2.5 Goals and Over 40 index points @ 15/8

    C'mon Rovers
    did that at 3.10 with powers and a bit on an enhanced moses wincast at 8.00. Good chance blackburn get something from the game but those odds are too good considering wigan and moses form.


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    #9679
    magherakid
    Registered Users Posts: 9,351 ✭✭✭magherakid


    West Ham v Cardiff
    The last four meetings between the sides at Upton Park have ended 1-0, three times in the Hammers favour.

    Single
    Correct score West Ham 1-0 8/1

    Single
    Vaz Te anytime 11/8


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    #9680
    Headshot
    Registered Users Posts: 53,839 ✭✭✭✭Headshot


    West Ham v Cardiff - Score And Win
    Carlton Cole To Score And West Ham To Win

    17/10 stake 10.00


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    #9681
    Lasagna Diarra
    Registered Users Posts: 6,303 ✭✭✭Lasagna Diarra


    Small bet on Nancy DNB (vs Sochaux ) @ 2.00

    Sochaux desperately need to win this game while Nancy have nothing to play for but Sochaux are just woeful and they're missing 4 important players including their creative midfielder Martin.


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    #9682
    Headshot
    Registered Users Posts: 53,839 ✭✭✭✭Headshot


    Lasagna Diarra wrote: »
    Small bet on Nancy DNB (vs Sochaux ) @ 2.00

    Sochaux desperately need to win this game while Nancy have nothing to play for but Sochaux are just woeful and they're missing 4 important players including their creative midfielder Martin.

    what you think of Saint-Étienne?


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    #9683
    Shane St.
    Registered Users Posts: 2,797 ✭✭✭Shane St.


    kicking myself for not doing the Vaz Te wincast!!!!


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    #9684
    Lasagna Diarra
    Registered Users Posts: 6,303 ✭✭✭Lasagna Diarra


    Headshot wrote: »
    what you think of Saint-Étienne?

    Just saw their line up and it's pretty weak offensively, they're playing Alonso (right winger) who's almost never been used this season. They've lost almost all their games vs the big teams (PSG, Lille, Montpellier) this season so it all depends on how motivated Marseille are, really hard to find a winner here.


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    #9685
    Lasagna Diarra
    Registered Users Posts: 6,303 ✭✭✭Lasagna Diarra


    Lasagna Diarra wrote: »
    Single:
    BATE Borisov (Belarussian league) to win 2-0 @ 4.25

    BATE are playing very well atm and will win tomorrow, I'd be pretty shocked if they didn't, they won 4 of their last 5 games by the same scoreline: 2-0, The last two games between these two teams finished with BATE winning 2-0. BATE have been winning at HT in their last 6 games.

    but of course the day I bet on that is the day they score more than 2 goals...


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    #9686
    Headshot
    Registered Users Posts: 53,839 ✭✭✭✭Headshot


    Lasagna Diarra wrote: »
    Just saw their line up and it's pretty weak offensively, they're playing Alonso (right winger) who's almost never been used this season. They've lost almost all their games vs the big teams (PSG, Lille, Montpellier) this season so it all depends on how motivated Marseille are, really hard to find a winner here.

    Thanks las

    I'll stay clear of it


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    #9687
    How Soon Is Now
    Registered Users Posts: 13,083 ✭✭✭✭How Soon Is Now


    Alpish wrote: »
    Any feedback on this bet, Moses to score and Wigan to win at 7/1?

    Just seen that one meself bit tempted actually :pac:


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    #9688
    Nuri Sahin
    Site Banned Posts: 26,456 ✭✭✭✭Nuri Sahin


    Hazard Wincast @ Evens

    Elfsborg @ EVens


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    #9689
    grohlisagod
    Registered Users Posts: 1,998 ✭✭✭grohlisagod


    Shane St. wrote: »
    kicking myself for not doing the Vaz Te wincast!!!!

    Know the feeling. Was extremely close to doing Carroll last goalscorer on Saturday.


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    #9690
    stingerro
    Registered Users Posts: 1,687 ✭✭✭stingerro


    Lasagna Diarra wrote: »
    but of course the day I bet on that is the day they score more than 2 goals...
    Love research you are doing, but this time you took unnecessary risk IMO. Great info about BATE though once again.


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    #9691
    Hamadeusentman
    Registered Users Posts: 735 ✭✭✭Hamadeusentman


    Modeste starting for Rovers. Good Christ almighty. I still fancy the Rovers win and Yak to score. 7/2. €10 on. Come on!


This discussion has been closed.
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