Oil Prices

David McWilliams wrote: »

OPEC are a cartel that profit on people not investing in alternative technology. They say there's enough to last a while? That's not surprising.


Al Jazeera's Conspiracy theory's page is not a reputable source.

I asure you many links from non opec sources exist that show there no reason to assume there is a oil shortage

My life is too short to be finding the multidue of these threads that I have seen and read about this issue over many years

AS boards forums is not University standards with millions of requirements for proof I will tell you what I know to be correct and leave it at that and those who wish can toddle of and find ther own links

As an envoirementalist type person nothing would please me better than to prove oil was running short

But in order to defeat the enemy in this case oil companies and OPEC supliers of fossil based fuel you need to bite the bullet and really know realisticaly what is the probable supplies of oil in total they have with which to defeat you with

Armed with correct information you have a higher probabilty to figure out their stratagy and and a better chance to make a program or stratergy that will defeat them

My own estimates are The oil known supplies today that oil companies have with reserves exceed 100 years possibly 200 years with China and India extra demands factored in

Reserves for me would mean up to 50% depleton still leaving 50% behind for fianal stage extraction

The probabilty is that we have done exploraton of maybe a lot less than 1% of the planet and various think tanks with some good egg heads estimate there is at least another 800 years supplies to be found

Based on this then it would seem logical to conclude any attempt to defeat the oil suppliers with alternitives are doomed unless the governments decide to tax oil at a greater rate than renewables

Only the Brazil government has seen this and succeeded to replace 50% oil with alternitives through tax penanties against oil imports

Peak oil types are often hod winked spoon fed with false oil reserves data and or hacks sometimes possibly working for the oil companies

It is much more in the oil companies interests to infer they are short for oil so as top keep prices higher and to ensure they own and control the data on reserves wherever possible

If us the joe soaps could really prove that 100 years supplies existed the price for oil would fall off a cliff and be more like $10 a barrel for the next 90 years

The stoneage didn't stop because we ran out of stones
The same for oil we can remove oil from energy requrements if we decide we will and plan replacemebts and only that reason will succeed



I must say that I wasnt aware Al Jazeera's had conpiracy section until a few days ago

Thats a intersting new policy for a media outlet so thats why I threw up that link

Just to give you a bone to chew on:pac::pac::pac:


Derry

The_Minister wrote: »

:rolleyes: to Derry

If we exploit coal-to-oil technology, we can have oil at c$100 dollars a barrel for the next 1000 years. That would cause massive pollution however.

The issue isn't that we are running out of oil, it's that we are running out of easily accessable oil. The more oil that is extracted from a well, the less there is in the well (well duh!); as the amount of oil shrinks it costs more and more to pump (technological advances have allowed us to access a greater percentage to the reserves though).

The problem is the end of cheap oil.

I think I have supplied most of the reply in the above post no 13
But to restate it we have best I can figure at least 200 years supply of oil without exceeding 50% extraction from the present oil feilds
Thats even before even factoring in other solutions like final stage extraction or tar sands or coal /oil solutions whatever

What is true the easy oil to extract has largley dissapeared

Example when they find a new feild the first 10% requires 1 baarell of oil of energy to extract 20 barrels
Later one barrel of oil is required to extract a lesser 4 barrels

Later again one barrel requires 3 barrels of oil to extract

The average of all the oil feilds in all the world from old feilds to offshore feilds which require lots of enegry or barrels of oil inputs to extract the oil coupled with newwer feilds means the average is probably one barrel of oil is required to extract four barrels of oil

Even finding new fairely medium sized feilds in the near future wont change this average so much

Also Oil companies when prices are higher deliberatly extract oil from older feilds using more oil inputs and keep the newwer easier feilds in reserve for lean times ( Standard mining practice)

The result of this is the oil peakers will want to slant the data to show high oil energy inputs sooner to back the case

The oil companies as they do most all the drilling and extraction have acces to most of the data on oil reserves and often its in their interests to play down the reserves

From other feilds where data is more open for whatever reason such as controlled through goverments whatever reason the truer piture can be extrapolated

So we can expect present oil production to remain steady( not including wars or oil shortages from deliberate production cuts ) in most all its basic features for at least the next 50 years even including the increased demand from China and India

Therfore the the cheap oil world is still with us for a much longer period than most would like to admit to

There in is the the reason to to opt for alternitives and remove our dependence on oil

Basically the 30% of the oil is needed to get it to our houses or cars whatever

This is similar to alternitives which require a 30% energy input

So with Alternitives we can see off the strangle hold oil has on our econmy

But for ROI to that you need to import a Brazilian goverment to run the gaff

Brazil so far they are the only ones in the world that have shown that alternitives can match oil for price and can be done on much less land than food shortage scare mongers will admit too

So for ecomonic reasons It a no brainer for Ireland to tax the be jesus out of oil imports and employ lots of farmers to grow bio fuels on the 30% of the Irish land being paid from the EU to remain out of production
Also to make wind and wave power solutions

ROI can effectivily remove oil/gas from the energy equasion and make it a small minority fuel supplier

But with the oil companies in bed with the regime you got two chances to see it happen here in the ROI like Brazil did


Derry

leninbenjamin wrote: »

impossible. we don't have thousands upon thousands of acres of rainforest we can clear to create the necessary space for bio fuels.

Rain forest clearring both in Brazil and ROI has nothin to do with bio fuels

Brazil is using only 2% of its countries space to produce nearly 50% of it energy needs

Brazil is a big country but it is well poipulatred not as mucn per square kilometer as ROI but still wel populated

ROI is 1/4 the population density of the UK so by EU standards is classed as as mostly empty compared to Holland

ROI only uses like 20% of it overall land to agriculture

Another big chunk is no use due to things like too boggy or too thin a top soil or is a lake

The rest consists of mountians which are not suitable for normal farming for food and other land for cites etc

There exists also what are classed as marginal land not normally farmed

The bottom sections of mountians can be used to grow quick growing tree 5 yearly crops that power stations can burn

Other even faster growing tree types ( bushes really )exist that give useful bio mass every year (annual crops)

The marginal land can grow bio mass such as long grasses that can make fuel for power stations or Ethanol(alcohol)

Some 30% of the food farm land presently is paid by the EU to grow nothing
Thats about 7% of the total Irish land which is scratching it ....... doing nothing

So even if we were only as good as similar land as Brazil with Ethanol production the 7% of the best land should nearly match the same as a similar region in Sqare kilometers as Brazil

Now the food is scarce crowd could blow trumpets food prices would rise but thats rubbish as the 7% of the land suitable for food production was doing sod all anyway

Many projections from oil companies will endevor to show that ROI CANT MAKE ANY USEFUL DENT TO OIL IMPORTS

BRAZIL HAS SHOWN THAT THE OIL COMPAANIES SPEAK WITH FORKED TOUNGUES

So ROI can make a usefull dent to to oil /gas imports possibly 25% without too much effort and maybe even higher than 50% with extra commitment from a new regime imported from Brazil who could make it work seeing as they are not oil company lovers

Then wind power can be ramped up and this can give an extra 25% of power consistantly if spread around all ROI as the wind pretty well alaways blows at some part of the ROI each day



Derry