Irelands most likely Olympic 2012 Medals

K_1 · 28-05-2012 2:40pm

Dan man wrote: »

I'm also viewing it from my iPhone and all the info is displayed. If you can see as far as the column titled personal best then you have the full table.

Joe Ward should be first in line for the invitation spot. The reason why is that the tripartite commission cannot award the spot to developing nation as none in Europe meet the criteria.
What should happen under the rules outlined in the qualifying system is that the place is then re-allocated to the AIBA (international boxing federation) to be re-distributed. The rules in the qualification pathway states that it should go to the highest ranked non-qualifier from the 2011 World Championships. Joe Ward fits the bill.

But isn't accepting an invitation the same thing as sending a B standard athlete? Is it not a bit of a contradiction if he is sent but the likes of Ciara Mageean (sp?) aren't?

feargale · 28-05-2012 2:42pm

[Quote=Dan man;

I think you must have an issue with formatting on your device I'm afraid, it's fully displayed on mine.[/Quote]
OK. I just thought I'd mention it because I didn't know of others were similarly affected.

Dan man · 28-05-2012 4:01pm

K_1 wrote: »

But isn't accepting an invitation the same thing as sending a B standard athlete? Is it not a bit of a contradiction if he is sent but the likes of Ciara Mageean (sp?) aren't?

I think it's crazy that B-standard athletes are not considered. Only in swimming and athletics are our athletes denied as such. In other sports it doesn't matter how late they achieve qualification or by how slim the margin, they are guaranteed selection.
So far we have only received one invitation, Derek Burnett in shooting, all of the others have qualified on merit. Those on B-standards in athletics are up and coming athletes and I really think they should be sent.

Joe Ward's situation should never have come to this and there is no doubt about his standard....he is one of the best in the world. There's no reason why the OCI wouldn't be biting the hand of the AIBA if they award him the invitation place as he is a huge hope for the Olympics. Fingers crossed he'll get the decision.

Dodge · 28-05-2012 7:11pm

K_1 wrote: »

But isn't accepting an invitation the same thing as sending a B standard athlete? Is it not a bit of a contradiction if he is sent but the likes of Ciara Mageean (sp?) aren't?

I'm on the side of sending B athletes/swimmers but I don't think its the same at all. In sports where invitations exist, there's 1/2 chances at most to qualify, and invitations are handed out to a very select few (in Ward's example only one boxer will get an invite at his weight)

Athletes and Swimmers have theorhetically had a year to reach the standard. The other big difference is that the IOC allows B, but its an Irish decision to not send athletes. Last time they relented late and sent 2 B runners

Truman Burbank · 28-05-2012 7:24pm

Dodge wrote: »

I'm on the side of sending B athletes/swimmers but I don't think its the same at all. In sports where invitations exist, there's 1/2 chances at most to qualify, and invitations are handed out to a very select few (in Ward's example only one boxer will get an invite at his weight)

Athletes and Swimmers have theorhetically had a year to reach the standard. The other big difference is that the IOC allows B, but its an Irish decision to not send athletes. Last time they relented late and sent 2 B runners

Why not send them thou? Surely, looking towards Rio the experience would be (in)valuable?? Could English be sent on a B standard?

Dan man · 28-05-2012 7:35pm

Truman Burbank wrote: »

Why not send them thou? Surely, looking towards Rio the experience would be (in)valuable?? Could English be sent on a B standard?

Yes English can be sent as no other Irish have the A standard for that event. I really hope they decide to send him and the others with the B standards given their young age and their development potential.

KevIRL · 28-05-2012 7:39pm

Truman Burbank wrote: »

Why not send them thou? Surely, looking towards Rio the experience would be (in)valuable?? Could English be sent on a B standard?

Well the point, as was well made in the article linked above is that by not lowering the standard to include 'B' times it encourages athletes to improve to make the A standard and thereby have a more competitive team. I can see both sides of the argument tbh.

Dan man · 28-05-2012 7:47pm

KevIRL wrote: »

Well the point, as was well made in the article linked above is that by not lowering the standard to include 'B' times it encourages athletes to improve to make the A standard and thereby have a more competitive team. I can see both sides of the argument tbh.

Yea, there is a good argument to keep stricter standards in place but I'd hope that they consider the long term gains of having those young guys with huge potential getting a taste of the Olympics and everything that goes with it. The argument against that is that they could be mentally scarred for the rest of their careers if it goes pear-shaped on the big stage. I still think the potential gains of having those young athletes experience the Olympics by far outweighs the negatives. It is an interesting debate though and both sides are often well articulated.

Dodge · 28-05-2012 8:27pm

KevIRL wrote: »

Well the point, as was well made in the article linked above is that by not lowering the standard to include 'B' times it encourages athletes to improve to make the A standard and thereby have a more competitive team. I can see both sides of the argument tbh.

My counter to that is that for younger athletes, in particular, if they prepare to peak for certain races that a) they can enter and b) have a chance to get the A time, they are unlikely to be able to peak again later in the season.

I'd be in favour of only athletes under 25 who have achieved the B standard twice (maybe once for 10k/walks) going instead of all B holders.

Pherekydes · 28-05-2012 9:22pm

Dodge wrote: »

I'd be in favour of only athletes under 25 who have achieved the B standard twice (maybe once for 10k/walks) going instead of all B holders.

Under this system, Deirdre Ryan wouldn't have been sent to Daegu last year, wouldn't have qualified for the final, wouldn't have placed 6th in the final, wouldn't have set a national record and wouldn't have gotten an Olympic A standard.

My opinion is to send anyone that qualifies. We never know what'll happen, especially as London will be a virtual home Olympics.

Truman Burbank · 28-05-2012 9:40pm

KevIRL wrote: »

Well the point, as was well made in the article linked above is that by not lowering the standard to include 'B' times it encourages athletes to improve to make the A standard and thereby have a more competitive team. I can see both sides of the argument tbh.

Apologies Kev, must have been distracted last night by Gordon Ramsay being carted off and missed your link.

From the article;
Journalist John O Brien "....the OCI still relented at the last minute before Beijing and selected four B-standard athletes. This time it is difficult to see a repeat. With a team of A-standard athletes likely to be well in excess of 60, it is impossible to see a need or justification for it."
Gary Keegan, Director of the Irish Institute of Sport "...People will look and say, okay, can we turn this into medals? Yes we can. But I'm not sure London is the place to be asking that question. The real question is what's actually different now? What's the legacy here? If we can point to things in place that are impacting positively as we approach London, then we can feel really confident about the next four years going into Rio."

Common sense may just win out. Or destroy the day.

FitzjamesHorse · 28-05-2012 10:32pm

I think there is a lot of merit in sending some B qualifiers.
First off an athlete like Mark English has already established his credentials.
If he was given a "nod and a wink" that he will go to London, then from today he can actually concentrate on peaking at that time.
Without such an assurance he is left with the prospect of achieving an "A" standard but being burned out before the Games themselves.
I think that there is also a team dimension. It would be good for morale of the Irish medal contenders to see other folks in the "green".
The same to be said for Swimming B standard.
As for other sports, they are dominated by qualification. Burnett has earned his invite with previous performances....but being handed an invite to compete in say Archery or Table Tennis would not be deserved.

As I recall the decision to send "B" standard athletes last time was the subject of heated debate on TV last time. If my recollection is correct it was suggested that athletes were chosen as a cover for extra places being made for OCI members to get extra representation.

Dan man · 28-05-2012 10:43pm

Pherekydes wrote: »

Under this system, Deirdre Ryan wouldn't have been sent to Daegu last year, wouldn't have qualified for the final, wouldn't have placed 6th in the final, wouldn't have set a national record and wouldn't have gotten an Olympic A standard.

My opinion is to send anyone that qualifies. We never know what'll happen, especially as London will be a virtual home Olympics.

Indeed that is another good point...in fact in many of the field events of the athletics programme, if you were to register a mark inside the B-standard during the qualification stage at the championships themselves you would stand a decent chance of making the final. I think this is almost always the case in the long jump and triple jumps and often for some of the throws. Here is a table with results from field events at the Beijing Olympics to highlight this point:

Note: by B-standard performance I am referring to any mark ranging between the A-standard and the B-standard, i.e. below the A-standard and not just the lowest possible B-standard mark.
Green text means that B-standard at the Olympics was enough to make the final
Red text signifies that B-standard at the Olympics was insufficient to make the final

Event|2008 A Qualifying Standard|2008 B Qualifying Standard|Mark that made the Olympic Final|How far would B-standard performance go at Olympics
Men's High Jump|2.30m|2.27m|2.25m|2.29m (B-standard) was enough for 6th place in the Olympic final
Men's Pole Vault|5.70m|5.55m|5.65m|5.60m (B-standard) was enough for 7th place in the Olympic final
Men's Long Jump|8.20m|8.05m|7.94m|8.19m (B-standard) was enough for 4th (8.20m for bronze!)
Men's Triple Jump|17.10m|16.80m|17.11m|16.87m (B-standard) was enough for 8th place in Olympic final but those with B would not have made final
Men's Shot Put|20.30m|19.80m|20.02m|20.06m (B-standard)was enough for 10th place in Olympic final
Men's Discus|64.50m|62.50m|62.48m|61.98m (B-standard) was enough for 11th place in Olympic final
Men's Hammer|78.50m|74.00m|75.34m|77.10m (B-standard) was enough for 9th place in the Olympic final
Men's Javelin|81.80m|77.80m|79.70m|81.32m (B-standard) was enough for 9th place in Olympic final
Women's High Jump|1.95m|1.91m|1.93m|1.93m (B-standard) was enough for 10th place in Olympic final
Women's Pole Vault|4.45m|4.30m|4.50m|all finalists posted heights at A-standard
Women's Long Jump|6.72m|6.60m|6.59m|6.70m (B-standard) was enough for 6th place in Olympic final
Women's Triple Jump|14.20m|14.00m|14.18m|14.13m (B-standard) was enough for 10th place in Olympic final
Women's Shot Put|18.35m|17.20m|18.46m|18.28m (B-standard) was enough for 10th place in Olympic final but those with B would not have made final
Women's Discus|61.00m|59.00m|60.28m|60.82m (B-standard) was enough for 6th place in Olympic final
Women's Hammer|69.50m|67.00m|69.36m|64.97m (B-standard) was enough for 11th place in final
Women's Javelin|60.50m|56.00m|60.13m|59.64m (B-standard) was enough for 8th place in final

As you can see, in most events, excepting the Men's Triple Jump, Women's Pole Vault and Women's Shot Put had marks below the A-standard advancing to the final.
In fact in the men's high jump, men's long jump, men's discus and women's long jump had athletes advancing to the Olympic final at marks below the B-standard! However, no B-standard mark was capable of getting amongst the medals, the closest being in the men's long jump where a mark 1cm above the B-standard range was enough for a bronze medal.

Now another interesting thing to analyse would be whether any athlete who was entered in the Beijing Olympics on the B-standard went on to win a medal. If I get a chance I will look into this as it would make for interesting reading (for stat geeks like me I mean!).

For track events however, it is usually only athletes that are capable of getting the A-standard or able to achieve them at the Olympics that get near the top positions.
All that been said the hope would be that with our current crop B-standard candidates, the fruits of sending them to London will hopefully come further down the line, Rio 2016 and 2020. The argument is not that they should be sent to hunt for medals or final places but they should be sent to give them experience on the biggest stage of all. I don't buy the idea that they should be kept back for another 4 years in order to nurture their talents gradually. The idea of that argument is that by dropping them in at the deep end they could potentially have a very negative experience that could blight them mentally for the rest of their athletics careers. But it is also likely that it could be the making of them and could be the first step towards future success. Besides, even athletes who have been at the Olympics before run the risk of having an equally negative experience and even with a bad experience an athlete often bounces back from it even stronger. I think the case of Irish 2004 Olympian and promising young high jumper Adrian O'Dwyer is used to underline the risk of putting these athletes into the Olympic environment if they are not totally prepared. The media too played a role in this case and his experience in Athens ultimately derailed his promising athletics career. But I just feel that even all the experience that those young athletes could gain at other events such as World Championships, Euro Championships, European Cups, etc. could not prepare them for the Olympic Games in 2016 in the way that London 2012 will help to give them that experience.

Dodge · 29-05-2012 1:05am

Pherekydes wrote: »

Dodge wrote: »

I'd be in favour of only athletes under 25 who have achieved the B standard twice (maybe once for 10k/walks) going instead of all B holders.

Under this system, Deirdre Ryan wouldn't have been sent to Daegu last year, wouldn't have qualified for the final, wouldn't have placed 6th in the final, wouldn't have set a national record and wouldn't have gotten an Olympic A standard.

My opinion is to send anyone that qualifies. We never know what'll happen, especially as London will be a virtual home Olympics.

I've no real issue with this. It's far preferable to no B athletes going IMO

Perhaps I should've said 'if there HAS to be a limit on B athletes' first

Dan man · 29-05-2012 4:03pm

The women's UCI (World Cycling Federation) today updated their World Rankings today for the women's road race and time trial and Ireland will not be amongst the first batch of quota places to be awarded when the deadline arrives on thursday 1st June. Additionally, there is very little scope for the re-allocation of places as on the face of it there seems that there will be little or no unused quota places. Even if places were made available there is little chance that Ireland would benefit from those openings as they are too far back on the reserve list.
So the presence of Caroline Ryan in London would seem to be relying on an invite but as far as I can make out, there are no invitation places available in the women's road race or time trial. I stand open to correction though as I am just going by what information I could find from the UCI website and a couple of other sites.

Dodge · 29-05-2012 4:16pm

I'm the same as you Dan. It was presumably a throw away line by Caroline in the aftermath of her excellent medal in the World Championships. I've tried to figure out a way she could get in but I can't see one. I know she entered some races recently but didn't get any real results

On the BMX scene, Kelvin batey missed out by one place as far as I can make out. GB not getting a quota place didn't help.

Dan man · 29-05-2012 5:06pm

Dodge wrote: »

I'm the same as you Dan. It was presumably a throw away line by Caroline in the aftermath of her excellent medal in the World Championships. I've tried to figure out a way she could get in but I can't see one. I know she entered some races recently but didn't get any real results

On the BMX scene, Kelvin batey missed out by one place as far as I can make out. GB not getting a quota place didn't help.

Yes that was really unlucky, and he wasn't awarded an invitation place either. Although he is no.1 on the reserve list I don't think there will be any unused places and I presume if a rider is injured they will be able to sub in another from that country to fill the void.

Dodge · 29-05-2012 5:16pm

Yep, there are 9 countries with 1 rider in there. I'd guess the ONLY hope would be the guy from the Philipines becoming injured. Hope not obviously

Dan man · 29-05-2012 10:49pm

There is news on the Anna Merveldt situation with regards the possibility of her getting a re-allocated quota place for the Olympics. At the end of the qualifying period Merveldt found herself sitting 2 places outside of the quota places for London 2012. This meant that she lay 2nd on the reserve list for the Olympics. However, New Zealand have dropped one of their 3 qualifiers due to their strict qualification procedures meaning she now lies first reserve for the Olympics. The bad news is that we were looking at the possibility of New Zealand potentially dropping 2 of their qualified riders which would have moved Anna into the frame for an Olympic berth but this didn't happen. I am not aware of the situation regarding the other qualified teams for London and whether or not they will be fulfilling their quotas but at the moment it is hard to see where the one extra place will free up for Anna. At the moment it is another case of an Irish athlete missing out on the Olympics by the slimmest of margins. I suppose there's always hope that another of the qualified combinations cannot make the Olympics for whatever reason so fingers crossed still, but the news is that it seems more unlikely that she will go to London than this time a week ago. Hopefully things will change in the coming weeks.

Dan man · 29-05-2012 11:32pm

Scott Evans will find out on Thursday whether he has made back-to-back Olympic Games in men's badminton singles. He is in a very good position to benefit from any quota places that become available in his event as he lies first on the reserve list. In badminton singles there is huge scope for quota places to become available so it looks very promising that Scott will be added to the Irish Olympic team on Thursday. In fact New Zealand has already sent out a statement saying they will not avail of their quota place (won by the continental qualification rule). This place cannot go back to the Oceania continent as Australia has already benefited twice (the maximum amount of times permitted) from the continental quota system. Other places will be made available as some athletes have qualified in both singles and doubles events and this will make further places available in the singles events (as they want to fill badminton's quota of 172 athletes for London) and I have also read reports about other players withdrawing.
Therefore it is with huge confidence I suggest that on Thursday that Scott Evans should be on the Irish team for London.

Dan man · 30-05-2012 2:10pm

In fact, digging into the Anna Merveldt situation further (Anna is hoping for Individual Dressage Olympic spot) it seems as though she still stands a decent chance of making the Olympics. As I said last night she is first on the reserve list at the moment. Now the Colombian team are still trying to achieve those minimum qualifying scores (M.Q.S.) that they need to avail of their 3 quota places for London 2012 but as of yet they have fallen short.
There is also the possibility that Antigua & Barbuda's Emily Ward Hansen has not yet achieved the M.Q.S. so there is still a good chance that Anna will get onto the startlist for London. The deadline for those combinations looking to achieve the M.Q.S. is June 17th so we won't know until that stage whether or not she qualifies unless others pull out in the mean time.

knockcon · 01-06-2012 12:03am

Right, so we're now in June and the bulk of our Athletes are qualified. What have we left to come from an actual qualifying perspective in June (Chris Bryan and maybe a few athletics competitors)? Also, what does June hold in terms of invites, or reallocation of spots (1 boxer hopefully, individual dressage, badminton)....what timelines to these work to? Dan, you were kind enough to outline the key dates for April and May. Do you have similar insight into what June holds?

feargale · 01-06-2012 12:07am

Are both Aileen Morrison and Gavin Noble qualified, bringing the number to 54?

Dan man · 01-06-2012 12:12am

feargale wrote: »

Are both Aileen Morrison and Gavin Noble qualified, bringing the number to 54?

Yes both are qualified, bringing the number to 55!

Dan man · 01-06-2012 12:13am

knockcon wrote: »

Right, so we're now in June and the bulk of our Athletes are qualified. What have we left to come from an actual qualifying perspective in June (Chris Bryan and maybe a few athletics competitors)? Also, what does June hold in terms of invites, or reallocation of spots (1 boxer hopefully, individual dressage, badminton)....what timelines to these work to? Dan, you were kind enough to outline the key dates for April and May. Do you have similar insight into what June holds?

I'm on to it....back to you ASAP!!

feargale · 01-06-2012 12:20am

Irish Times Thursday: AIBA confirms seeding will operate for the first time at London based on world rankings as follows: Taylor 1, Nolan 3, O'Neill 3, Nevin 4, Barnes 7, Conlan 14. Looks good !
Ward's 3rd June decision date could be pushed back to 11th June. A frame-by-frame analysis showed Ward effected 32 head shots and one body shot against the Turk, yet lost 18-15.

feargale · 01-06-2012 12:21am

Irish Times Thursday: AIBA confirms seeding will operate for the first time at London based on world rankings as follows: Taylor 1, Nolan 3, O'Neill 3, Nevin 4, Barnes 7, Conlan 14. Looks good !
Ward's 3rd June decision date could be pushed back to 11th June. A frame-by-frame analysis showed Ward effected 32 head shots and one body shot against the Turk, yet lost 18-15.

Dan man · 01-06-2012 1:12am

Qualification for the London 2012 Olympics is entering into its final stages and in many sports now athletes have finished the official qualifying phase and are anxiously awaiting the re-distribution of Olympic quotas.

So what can we expect in June for our hopefuls:
Current situation is that by the start of June the Irish team for London stands at 55 qualifiers across a record 14 different sports.
While we can not qualify any athletes in other sports outside those 14, there is still huge scope to add to the current team numbers.
Here is a calendar of important events for the month of June that we can keep an eye out for:

June 1st -BADMINTON: with the deadline for all those NOCs (each country's National Olympic Committee) that received quota places for London 2012 to confirm their selections passed, we will find out who benefits from any places that go unused. Scott Evans is first reserve for the men's singles event and as such he is first in line to benefit from any places that become freed up. Scott is certainly going to be added to the Olympic team as there are plenty of spots going to be made available again so by tomorrow we will have team member #56!!
June 3rd - BOXING: Joe Ward will find out his fate on June 3rd (the date may change) when the Tripartite Commission meet to complete the process of handing out invitation places for the boxing events in London. If you follow strictly the very complicated rules for these invitation places, then Joe Ward is in pole position to win the invitation spot in his weight category. However, I am not too confident of him getting the decision as there is always a lot of politics at play in such decisions and also it doesn't help Joe that we have a healthy number of boxers already qualified for London. This could go against him but strictly speaking, Joe should get the place by following the qualification pathway rules fully.
June 10th - OPEN WATER SWIMMING: Irish swimmer Chris Bryan attempts to claim an Olympic starting place for the men's 10km marathon swim. This final qualification event in Portugal will be Chris' last shot at making the Olympics and he has a decent chance as he is a strong performer.
June 17th - EQUESTRIAN: another big milestone on the road to London for the Irish team as we look to gain 2 more eventers and 1 individual dressage rider for the Olympics. Currently in individual dressage Irish rider Anna Merveldt is first reserve and therefore if any places go unused on this date, she will be first in line to benefit from it. Her chances are reasonably good as not all countries who have received Olympic quota spots are currently in a position to fulfill their quotas. The Colombian NOC qualified a team of 3 dressage riders at the Pan-American Games last year but as of yet they have not been able to avail of those places. The reason for this is that each rider must achieve a minimum qualifying score (MQS) in order to take part in the Olympics but so far the Colombians have fallen short of that standard. They are battling very hard to achieve it and have been competing in events across Europe to attain the standard, but time is running out. In addition, an Antiguan qualifier Emily Ward has to my knowledge not reached the standard either so this leaves us with the prospect of our rider Anna Merveldt being upgraded from the reserve list as she has achieved the MQS. On the same date any unused eventing places will go up for grabs to those on the reserve list and we have 2 very high up the list. There is sure to be places to be re-distributed and we should at least benefit to the tune of one additional rider for London and stand a very good chance of gaining a second also. This would bring our total in eventing to the maximum of 5 riders.
June 21st - CANOE SPRINT: This is the date that unused quota places become available for re-distribution and there is a small chance that Jenny Egan could benefit from the countback system. It is very difficult to analyse her chances of gaining a spot as it is a fairly complicated system but I would not be overly confident, but she has a chance at least.
June 27th-August 1st - ATHLETICS: The European Athletics Championships in Helsinki at the end of June will likely be hugely important for those in search of qualifying standards. It should provide any of those athletes who are still short of the necessary standards by that time to have a good crack at making the marks.

In addition to those milestones, our track and field athletes will continue their attempts to achieve those Olympic qualifying standards. News of the meets they will be competing in will come through on a regular basis between now and the close of the qualifying period in July so keep an ear out for them on a week-to-week basis.
The Irish men's and women's 4x400m relay teams are in action this weekend so look out for the women's team in particular. They are looking to nail down one more fast time to secure their place in London.

Over the coming days I'll keep updating the thread with any news coming through on our potential Olympic qualifiers. At his stage in the qualifying window, things get very hectic. But as you can see tomorrow we should see another qualifier for London with Scott Evans virtually assured of gaining a spot in men's singles badminton.

knockcon · 01-06-2012 5:38am

Thanks Dan. On the Joe Ward hopes, this article from RTE last week does not bode well:
The President of the International Amateur Boxing Association, Dr Ching-Kuo Wu, has said there is a "very limited opportunity" for Ireland's Joe Ward to qualify for the Olympic Games via the Tripartite Commission invitation.
Speaking to RTÉ Sport's Paul O'Flynn at the Women's World Championships in Qinhuangdao, China, Dr Wu said that Ireland had six qualified boxers, which is quite a big number.
He added: "So whether Tripartite will accept the country that already has so many boxers to the Olympic games? Tripartite will consider (Joe Ward). "He's not qualified, so it goes through the Tripartite and (there is) very little opportunity."
Ward missed out on qualification after defeat at the European qualifying tournament in Turkey in April.
The objective of Tripartite Commission Invitation places is to allow a number of countries with only a few athletes qualified to participate in the games

Dodge · 01-06-2012 8:46am

Tripartite invitations are supposed to be used for countries that a) have very little overall representation and b) no representation in that sport

So Lucembourg gets a tennis invite, San Marino gets a shooting invite etc

The only way Joe Ward gets the invite is if the IOC and the AIBA can't find a suitable European boxer and decide to send the European Champion instead. The 'he was robbed' angle won't matter as he also failed to qualify from 2011 worlds

Irelands most likely Olympic 2012 Medals

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