Speedy Gonzales or Slowpoke Rodriguez?

T runner · 23-03-2012 12:04pm

Just chatted to my potential partner in crime in Rotterdam.

His plan is to run at 3:40 pace for 30k (2:35 pace) and then to it to break 2:33 (3:31 pace required).

My first thoughts is that this is an attractive option:

1. Guaranteed relatively respectable time
2. Long commitment unlikely to be wasted by blowing uop.

Drawbacks might be:

1. The difference between 3:40 and 3:31 is significant will i be able to up it?
2. Is 3:40 too slow for me and then 3:31 too fast?

My planned 34k long run on Sunday will see me average 3:43 pace (5:58).
If i can successfully complete this ill have to analyse.

One to consider. I would be happy with 2:32xx. Any thoughts anyone?

TheRoadRunner · 23-03-2012 12:22pm

T runner wrote: »

One to consider. I would be happy with 2:32xx. Any thoughts anyone?

It's a tough one to call and to be honest it will depend on how you feel on the day and how the taper has gone. Looking at your log your training is definitely geared towards a low 2.30 and maybe faster. However the one drawback is your race times, at the moment they don't point towards a sub 2.30 time. Having said that there are multiple variables that need to be accounted for such as bad pacing in races and course gradient etc etc etc.

Obviously a bit of doubt has crept in but If I were in your shoes I'd head off with your buddy for 5 miles and make a call then. You could gradually start to crank it up. But as I said it will depend on how you feel on the day and where your head is at.

T runner · 23-03-2012 1:49pm

TheRoadRunner wrote: »

It's a tough one to call and to be honest it will depend on how you feel on the day and how the taper has gone. Looking at your log your training is definitely geared towards a low 2.30 and maybe faster. However the one drawback is your race times, at the moment they don't point towards a sub 2.30 time. Having said that there are multiple variables that need to be accounted for such as bad pacing in races and course gradient etc etc etc.

Obviously a bit of doubt has crept in but If I were in your shoes I'd head off with your buddy for 5 miles and make a call then. You could gradually start to crank it up. But as I said it will depend on how you feel on the day and where your head is at.

I like the 5 mile idea. You generally have a raesonable sense of where youre at at on the day this stage.

I suppose the races served their purpose in affecting LT, and the times reflect this in some way.

I took some positives though. (Bear with me here!)

I ran Bohermeen in 3:30 pace. I felt i could have managed 2:27 or better with even pacing (e.g i lost 45s in 2k in a very poor finish after settling for 4th). If we take it that conditions will be slighlty better in Rotterdam (better surface, less hills and wind) then 3:26 pace should have been probable for me with good pacing on a flat course (like half of Rotterdam amrathon course). Sticking that into the calculator gives a 2:32:30.

I know theres a lot of rationalising there and we can all improve our times by tweaking mcmillan but i ahd another cause for optimism analysing that HM: I was very faster and more comfortable (making significant ground on competitors) on the flat sections running low 3:20s and still staying under 3:25 when i was hurting a little in the second lap carrying my over zealous start.

Tubbercurry was always going to be a relatively steady 5k followed by a hard 5k (17m, 16:30) rough split. Best for training and best for confidence. There was a little more time to be got there with more even pacing and more again on a flat course (95 metres of ascent and descent).

That said a race time is a race time and id have to agree that i cant manipulate these times toward a sub 2:30 conclusion.

My 3:35 20k pacerun with Bazman indicates that i can run 2:30 effort for 20k. However, my training has been setup with high volume early in the campaign to allow me to scope recover from these big sessions. Im now doing 1 session a week. A 20k pace run is something that is a strong indicator of race pace in a P and D build up for example.

In a phase with specific hard runs followed by 4-6 days recovery 20k at race pace should not be as hard as i found it. I think 26-30k at Race pace should be possible in these circumstances.

A lot of analysis there but i need to do it.

Good conditions assumed: In my gut i think i have a good chance at 2:32.xx.
Going at 2:35 for 30k will only get me 2:33xx gut feeling (albeit with less risk which is a strong point)
The see how im fixed after 5 mile covers me for an attempt at 2:32.xx or to hold the other pace and try to finish fast or hold for sub 2:35.

Its a good option but a slight drawback is not having the single concrete plan at the start. Will this affect singlemindedness if things get tough later after choosing option go for 2:32.xx after 5? Probably just a matter of getting the head around it in advance.

Thanks for the input and reply to any of the above that makes sense or otherwise.

Krusty_Clown · 23-03-2012 2:30pm

What's the story with the weather in Rotterdam? Will temperatures rise significantly towards the latter part of the race?

Except for Chicago, my personal strategy had always been to start conservatively and wind it up over the last 10k. Works out really well and creates the best chance of a solid result, while reducing the risk of no pay-off. The risk is that if temperatures rise significantly, you'll increase your HR just coping with the additional heat. Then you add in the increased effort levels, and it can be difficult to increase the pace later in the race (but if your starting pace will provide a satisfactory result, then it may still be the optimum strategy).

Chicago, I just didn't stick to the plan and went out at 'perfect result pace', so when the higher temperatures came... bam.. No pay-off. I wouldn't say that starting conservatively is a negative strategy. In terms of results, the negative split is predominately an optimistic strategy. Needless to say, our goals are worlds apart, so mileage may vary!

ocnoc · 23-03-2012 2:38pm

Look at the mental side of it - not just the physical.
Three sides to the mental aspect.
Conscious - Do you think you can? (You can only focus on 1 thing at a time)
Sub Conscious - what the body knows it can do (limited by the self image)
Self Image - what you see yourself doing (effected by what other people seeing you do)

Looking from the outside in, you have some serious training in the legs, you've handled all the big sessions well. Races on the whole look good - granted, something can always go better, but if you weren't looking to improve you wouldn't be where you are now. Honestly, I believe you can get sub 2:32. Number crunch all you like, but at the end of the day, you can't put numbers on self belief.

Some people say it depends on the day - I can see that argument to a certain extent, but why put negative thoughts into your mind? If its windy - it means you'll get a tail wind at some stage. How many times have you run sub 3:35 k's into a wind in Ireland?

As PN once said to me "The National Parks don't appreciate lighting fires on open mountain side", well I'm pretty dam sure Rotterdam County Council don't appreciate fires either.

T runner · 23-03-2012 3:58pm

Krusty_Clown wrote: »

What's the story with the weather in Rotterdam? Will temperatures rise significantly towards the latter part of the race?

The risk is that if temperatures rise significantly, you'll increase your HR just coping with the additional heat. Then you add in the increased effort levels, and it can be difficult to increase the pace later in the race (but if your starting pace will provide a satisfactory result, then it may still be the optimum strategy

Thanks Krusty. Race starts at 10:30 so ill be finishing just after 1pm hopefully (Start was brought forward half an hour on request (by R Canova probably) to make a world record more likely due to possibility of higher temps).Temp now was 17C at 1 pm today and will be 14-17C at 1pm for the next few days. Seems to rise 3-5 degrees between 10am and 2pm. No problems if thats the case in 3 weeks, its not unusual to have 20C + days there in April though, so it could be a factor. Point noted. If its a hot day the 3:35 pace till 30k does seem to be on the cards.

Needless to say, our goals are worlds apart, so mileage may vary!

2:32-42 are in same ballpark. Similar pacing strategies would apply to both.
I agree with the negative split strategy: Personally i think my second and third 10k should be faster than the first. In fact if you run the first at the same pace as second and third it is too fast. That atleast is how i would like to pace it. Comfortable and winding it up, then hanging on if needs be.

If i was to go sub 2:32 for example. Id envisage losing 15-20s to the target over the first 10k. Arriving half way within 20-45s of target. At 35k id be on target and from there on in a matter of trying to improve or not to fade.

The question might be would you envisage being able to manage sub 2:42 after running at 2:44 pace for 30k? Is that too negative a split?

ocnoc wrote: »

Look at the mental side of it - not just the physical.
Three sides to the mental aspect.
Conscious - Do you think you can? (You can only focus on 1 thing at a time)
Sub Conscious - what the body knows it can do (limited by the self image)
Self Image - what you see yourself doing (effected by what other people seeing you do)

Looking from the outside in, you have some serious training in the legs, you've handled all the big sessions well. Races on the whole look good - granted, something can always go better, but if you weren't looking to improve you wouldn't be where you are now. Honestly, I believe you can get sub 2:32. Number crunch all you like, but at the end of the day, you can't put numbers on self belief.

Some people say it depends on the day - I can see that argument to a certain extent, but why put negative thoughts into your mind? If its windy - it means you'll get a tail wind at some stage. How many times have you run sub 3:35 k's into a wind in Ireland?

As PN once said to me "The National Parks don't appreciate lighting fires on open mountain side", well I'm pretty dam sure Rotterdam County Council don't appreciate fires either.

Thanks OCnoc. I think the session this sunday is important for all those psychological reasons. I think that if i can manage that session then physically and mentally i can run a sub 2:32.

Im starting to think my strategy might be to run with my pal for 10k and then start pulling back in the 2:32 rabbit. I wont have time to start the fires though but ill give my Dad matches and petrol before the off and he'll do what it takes to help the young lad around.

I had originally thought before chatting with him that he intended to go through half at 76 min and take it from there. That felt not far off right.

Hopefully this session on sunday will settle it decisively. Did 10 of Kiwi Runners diagonals at lunch and now Im looking forward to Sundays expected tortuous end in quite a sick way (as you might do yourself!;))

T runner · 23-03-2012 4:35pm

Got this pacing strategy from a very experienced and trusted advisor. Includes a prediction inside 2:35 allowing for a collapse. Startegy to go with 3:40 for 10k and pick it up.

5 00:03:40 00:18:20
10 00:03:40 00:36:40
15 00:03:35 00:54:35
20 00:03:35 01:12:30
21.1 00:03:35 01:16:26
25 00:03:35 01:30:25
30 00:03:30 01:47:55
35 00:03:25 02:05:00
40 00:03:25 02:22:05
42.2 00:03:25 02:29:36

Collapse after 35k

5 00:03:40 00:18:20
10 00:03:40 00:36:40
15 00:03:35 00:54:35
20 00:03:35 01:12:30
21.1 00:03:35 01:16:26
25 00:03:35 01:30:25
30 00:03:30 01:47:55
35 00:03:35 02:05:50
40 00:04:00 02:25:50
42.2 00:04:00 02:34:38

heffsarmy · 24-03-2012 1:09am

You seem to be very analytical about your training, I think at times you have to just go out and run. I would'nt worry about running fast times over short distances nor hitting your key sessions. Believe in yourself and it will happen, if you think you can do it, you will. Run the marathon as a negative split, people say the race starts in the last 10km, that's rubbish you can blow your marathon in the first 10km, first 10km should feel so easy. Wind it up from about 10miles, your last 10km should be your best. When it works out like this, there is no better feeling. Good luck with the run.

T runner · 24-03-2012 1:12pm

heffsarmy wrote: »

You seem to be very analytical about your training, I think at times you have to just go out and run. I would'nt worry about running fast times over short distances nor hitting your key sessions. Believe in yourself and it will happen, if you think you can do it, you will. Run the marathon as a negative split, people say the race starts in the last 10km, that's rubbish you can blow your marathon in the first 10km, first 10km should feel so easy. Wind it up from about 10miles, your last 10km should be your best. When it works out like this, there is no better feeling. Good luck with the run.

Thanks heff. Was just presented with the conundrum of having someone to run with at a given pace. I'm kind of making my schedule up as I go along so am forced to analyse a little more. I think I'll have to run my own race as you say. I'm toning down Sunday's session. From tomorrow it's just freshening up and trusting I've the work done. Sorry to hear about your injury troubles, hope you're back to full training soon.

T runner · 27-03-2012 10:35am

Thursday 22nd March:

Rest

Friday:

Lunch 6k easy with strides
PM 10k easy

Saturday:

1 hr easy (14k)

Sunday:

Toned down my planned run on advice to this one:

10k @4
10k@3.50
10k@3:45
5k easy including 10 by 200 @3:10 pace

This is what i managed:
10k @3:59
10k@3.50
7k@3:42
jog 1.5 k

Mental issues more than physical here. Didnt plan this run too well. Park was absolutely crowded: i was constantly running around people. I just could not concentrate on the job. Stopped and restarted twice befiore calling it a day and jogging back to the car after the third stop. The heat was getting to me as i had to return to car at stop 1 and refill my water bottle, drinking another one while there.

Last week i chose the 10k/ long easy run option because i just couldnt face into a hard solitary long run at pace. A long build up for this marathon with a lot of heavy sessions including races.

Just glad to have fallen into the taper phase.

Im not too worried about it though. One poor training run was bound to happen, i cant be too hard on myself considering the overall effort getting this far. Mind and body will be fresh come the big day.

The only practical concern is a dearth of long runs. I think I should be OK:

Relatively recent runs:

26th Feb: Long hard 35k run
March 4th (no long run Bohermeen half)
W/end Mar10th: Sat. 30k with stoppages inc Pace run 20k; Sun. 2hr easy endurance.
March 17th: 35.5 k easy pace
March 25th: 28.5 k fastish with some stoppages.

Im assuming here that the w/end of March 10th will have maintained endurance due to the two hard days. If not i may have to do a long easy 32k this weekend to hold it until race day. I also have been doing large mileage and although this has dropped since Bohermeen the connective tissues etc should be in good nick to take the 42k.

Plan for taper is this

Sun 1st April: 27k (4m race on saturday).
Sun 8th April 20-21k
Sun 15th: Rotterdam

Any comments on Endurance question very welcome.

(Monday: 6k easy am: 10k easy PM)

Krusty_Clown · 27-03-2012 12:40pm

I'd say if you showed that last post to a coach, they'd laugh out loud. If I remember correctly, there are some very fast marathon runners that don't believe in going beyond 17 miles for a long run, and comfortably run low 2:4x times. In your case, you've done a handful of very long runs in recent weeks (some of them hard), in addition, you've raced a half, which I've previously read is a perfectly suitable alternative to a long run, so from that perspective, you haven't missed a beat in the last 6 weeks.

The only reason to do a further long run at this stage is mental rather than physical, because you don't believe that you have done enough long endurance runs. So perhaps there is psychological value in doing a further long run two weeks out. In your case because of your heavy mileage, an easy 20 mile run won't do you any harm. Will it do you any good though? I'd have my doubts. But if it puts you in better mental shape, then do it, but only if you can maintain an easy pace that you know will not have any physical implications.

What's the weekly mileage plan leading up the race?

T runner · 27-03-2012 12:58pm

Krusty_Clown wrote: »

I'd say if you showed that last post to a coach, they'd laugh out loud. If I remember correctly, there are some very fast marathon runners that don't believe in going beyond 17 miles for a long run, and comfortably run low 2:4x times. In your case, you've done a handful of very long runs in recent weeks (some of them hard), in addition, you've raced a half, which I've previously read is a perfectly suitable alternative to a long run, so from that perspective, you haven't missed a beat in the last 6 weeks.

The only reason to do a further long run at this stage is mental rather than physical, because you don't believe that you have done enough long endurance runs. So perhaps there is psychological value in doing a further long run two weeks out. In your case because of your heavy mileage, an easy 20 mile run won't do you any harm. Will it do you any good though? I'd have my doubts. But if it puts you in better mental shape, then do it, but only if you can maintain an easy pace that you know will not have any physical implications.

What's the weekly mileage plan leading up the race?

Thanks Krusty, thats put the mind at rest. Psychologically im happy with the taper plans. In fact i think id have difficulty getting myself up to complete a 20 miler now outside the race itself. Just putting all doubts to bed.

A good taper now and i can give it a good lash.

Basing my taper on P and D,with some tweaks as its tried and trusted.

T runner · 28-03-2012 11:06am

Tuesday 27 March

Lunch 4k jog inc. core work and stretching

Nice to be able to really take it easy during lunch.

PM: About 16k inc. 8 by 3k fartlek each one getting faster.

Time to freshen the legs up. Happy with this grass for first 5 then tarmac for last 3 (due to crowding on way home). This accident actually worked well. On the grass i seemed to run with good form pushing hard witha decent cadence. When i started the 3 min reps on the tarmac i really felt the impact of my foot on the ground and i started "pulling" teh ground under me, while still keeping the long hard strides from the grass. If i had started on the tarmac i think i would have taken shorter (too short) strides to avoid impact and lost some efficiency and speed. I guess tahts why they say sand and grass are good for this work. Ill try the combo again. Might be good for getting the most out of strides either.

Tonight its 21k home. Im feeling some freshness so ill run some of this moderately fast to keep teh intensity honest as the volume drops.
Will do half an hour of diagonals on thursday or friday to keep sharpening.

BHAA 4 mile on saturday. Early in race will probably go relatively steady with a group , like my recent 10k, and try and pick it up.

Weight is a bit of a worry: Average for the last week is almost 1.5 kg higher than around Bohermeen half. Ill get it down but ill have to be careful doing it.

dermCu · 28-03-2012 2:32pm

100% agree with Krusty. If I was you I wouldn't worry about endurance. Your Canova style long runs have really been about 'speed endurance' - that's using my interpretation of that phrase, I'm sure there is a more correct technical one. My point is that you shouldn't underestimate those long runs. They go over and beyond the norm and you'll reap a hell of a benefit from them. Maybe you are too close to the action to see just how much they'll stand to you. The time for analysis is over; now its time to start building up your inner confidence and to block out any and all negatives. Best of luck with it.

tunguska · 28-03-2012 5:04pm

TheRoadRunner wrote: »

It's a tough one to call and to be honest it will depend on how you feel on the day and how the taper has gone. Looking at your log your training is definitely geared towards a low 2.30 and maybe faster. However the one drawback is your race times, at the moment they don't point towards a sub 2.30 time. Having said that there are multiple variables that need to be accounted for such as bad pacing in races and course gradient etc etc etc.

I'd agree with that. I dont want to be a killjoy or anything T-runner but 2:32 seems a little ambitious. I mean the difference between 2:35 and 2:32 is massive. I know on paper its only 3 minutes but the pace required for 2:32 is 5:48/mile and thats fairly hot. My advice would be to go for 2:35 and negative split it.

T runner · 28-03-2012 6:02pm

tunguska wrote: »

I'd agree with that. I dont want to be a killjoy or anything T-runner but 2:32 seems a little ambitious. I mean the difference between 2:35 and 2:32 is massive. I know on paper its only 3 minutes but the pace required for 2:32 is 5:48/mile and thats fairly hot. My advice would be to go for 2:35 and negative split it.

Its easy to say here but immediately after my Bohermeen half i felt i should have run circa 73. I really mucked the pacing up running the first 2k at roughly 10k effort or worse.

I felt i would have been well able to tackle a fast flat course (like 1/2 Rotterdam) between 72 and 72:30. Thats 2:32 ballpark given that im concentrating on marathon, semi tired and that my long hard runs (touch wood) should not mean a fade.

To illustarte this further, I ran 20k progression in training at 2:30 effort the week after Bohermeen. Thats not far off my Bohermeen race pace in a 20k training run. That indicated strongly to me taht Bohermeen had served a purpose ( a significant boost to pace at LT) and that my time there had perhaps not quite been refelctive of where i was at.

(Tubbercurry 10k (33:33) had 100m of climbing and it wasnt quite an all out effort from me being honest.)

Remember my LT work had been in 3 hill runs. I knew my road speed at LT needed work: that was the road races main function for me: to help get road speed up at LT. For those reasons id take the couple of road results witha pinch of salt.

Difference between 2:30 and 2:35 is also huge. Could someone going for 2:40 manage a 20k progression run (tougher than pace run) @ 2:35? Its debatable
Ive managed a long ardous run or two with a good dash of 2:30 pace involved also.

This all indicates to me that 2:32 may be possible.

If i go at 3:40 pace and i dont accelerate then thats allright. Ill take 2:35 greatfully, its a huge PB. I do feel (hope too) that i will cruise around the 3:34-35 mark (after a taper) for a long time, but not at the 3:33 required to get near 2:30.

I definately wont run a positive split or dont intend to atleast. I will race by feel hopefully keeping negative as the race gets closer the line. The first 5k wil feel easy even if that means 3:45 ave. Starting easy is the key. Ill find the right pace then. Touch wood to all of this!

My main worries now is a bit of weight loss and wondering if a lack of a long run or two and too much mileage reduction in the last 3 weeks (just gone) might cause a fade near the end or have affected aerobic capacity.

I am positive though and will get more so as i get fresher.

Abhainn · 28-03-2012 9:21pm

T runner wrote: »

The first 5k wil feel easy even if that means 3:45 ave. Starting easy is the key. Ill find the right pace then.

You've nailed it there. Now don't deviate from that on race day

T runner wrote: »

My main worries now is a bit of weight loss and wondering if a lack of a long run or two and too much mileage reduction in the last 3 weeks (just gone) might cause a fade near the end or have affected aerobic capacity.

Why? Did you intend losing more? I wouldn't worry about that long run concern.
Keep positive

T runner · 28-03-2012 9:32pm

Abhainn wrote: »

You've nailed it there. Now don't deviate from that on race day

Ill try not too, but if Moses Mosop starts showing off with strides before the start i might be forced to lay on a few lessons.

Why? Did you intend losing more?

No, but didnt intend putting on more..which is what ive done over last 3 weeks... should be able to re-lose that bit without getting weaker.

I wouldn't worry about that long run concern.
Keep positive

Thanks boss. And well done on run and win in Wicklow. Another strong improvement from Kinvarra, you must be delighted.

T runner · 28-03-2012 10:25pm

Wednesday 28 March:

Steady run 19.5k 3:46 (6.04) pace.

Wanted to put a bit of pace into this to keep the cadence intact over longer distances. Ran the first section easyish to shake the legs out. When i reached the coast (near the 40 foot) i started running relaxed and fastish but controlled. First section (5.6k) was at 4.02 (6.30). Faster pace was 3:40 (5.55) for 13.8k so happy enough with that. Legs felt a little heavy towards end but can be expected, breathing was controlled throughout.

Easy day tommorrow and 30 mins of diagonals on Friday. Lookingh forward to the legs slowly getting fresher and stronger. Lost my battle with the sugary cups of tea this PM again. Now wheres that aero.....

28-03-2012 10:38pm

Some great training T-Runner.Enjoy the taper.

T runner · 08-04-2012 5:11pm

Not too much to report on taper: Some VO2max pace work on saturday of weekend two followed by a 1hr 50 easy run on the saturday.

During the week past i did a 16k progression run of 6k easy then 2k@3:40 2k @3:35 2k @3:30 and 2k @3:25 2k easy warm down.

Felt strongish during these runs and finished the faster ones a few seconds average under times above.

Yesterday was a 13k run with 15 X 30s for leg speed.

Today was a 21k run.

First week of taper mileage was a relatively low 100k so i made sure this week was more honest clocking about 92-3 k.

Last week will include 4 X 4 mins LT on tuesday and then its 20-50 min jogging.

One slight worry is that the taper is too long: 4 weeks out I rested a week before my cut short session that weekend so tapering for at least 4 weeks. I read somewhere that maintenance of 60% holds fitness but my maintenance of intensity hasnt been that good.

Its better to be too rested than too tired i guess, so all doubts aside now and ready to give it a good (controlled) lash.

Ill post again before kick off.

heffsarmy · 12-04-2012 11:46pm

Good luck T-Runner on sunday, hold back for the first 10 then run the balls off yourself

Brianderunner · 13-04-2012 9:25am

Best of luck on Sunday. It's been an interesting log to follow.

Krusty_Clown · 13-04-2012 9:45am

Hope everything goes exactly to plan. You deserve it.

13-04-2012 9:48am

Best of luck Sunday, hope you hit your target time as the training warrants it.

Slogger Jogger · 13-04-2012 9:48am

Have a good one T.

TheRoadRunner · 13-04-2012 10:06am

Have a good one. Fingers crossed for you

ecoli · 14-04-2012 10:20pm

Best of Luck tomorrow T. You have had a great build up and will no doubt be rewarded for it come tomorrow

seanynova · 15-04-2012 12:36am

best of luck tomorrow, sorry for the late well wishes but i'll be eager in the morning to see how you and moses get on....

Slogger Jogger · 15-04-2012 7:35pm

Those splits are a thing of beauty. Great performance.

Name Conway Turlough
City Dublin
Distance ABN AMRO Marathon Rotterdam
Category M35
Overall place 109 / 7530
Category place 20 / 842
Speed 16,330 Km/Hour
Gross time 2:35:13
Net time 2:35:02
Net split times (difference)
5 Kilometer 18:34 (18:34)
10 Kilometer
15 Kilometer 55:16
20 Kilometer 1:13:46 (18:30)
Half marathon
25 Kilometer 1:32:22 (18:36)
30 Kilometer 1:50:46 (18:24)
35 Kilometer 2:08:59 (18:13)
40 Kilometer 2:27:13 (18:14)

Speedy Gonzales or Slowpoke Rodriguez?

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