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Repossessions

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Comments

  • Registered Users Posts: 4,305 ✭✭✭Zamboni


    D3PO wrote: »
    in a word no.

    Even if UB reposess 1,000 properties you can be sure they will manage the disposal of the assets in such a way as to get the most value. There will be no firesales.

    UB can sell or rent the houses - they won't hold the assets as they will just fall into disrepair.
    Look at the losses UB have had this year alone. The bank needs capital.
    Why are you so sure they won't sell?


  • Registered Users Posts: 7,879 ✭✭✭D3PO


    Zamboni wrote: »
    UB can sell or rent the houses - they won't hold the assets as they will just fall into disrepair.
    Look at the losses UB have had this year alone. The bank needs capital.
    Why are you so sure they won't sell?

    I didnt say they wont sell. I said there wont be a fire sale. Stretegic sales based on geography in areas most likely to yield the best sale prices will probably be one strand, continuing to rent BTL's where there are sitting tennants will most likely be another.

    Now the bank doesnt ideally want to sit on the assets and rent them, but if its in their interest they will.

    the only stuff that will likely be dumped onto the market for a quick sale will be unattractive housing in ghost estates etc

    thats my view on it anyway.


  • Registered Users Posts: 4,473 ✭✭✭Villa05


    D3PO wrote: »
    in a word no.

    Even if UB reposess 1,000 properties you can be sure they will manage the disposal of the assets in such a way as to get the most value. There will be no firesales.

    I disagree, the banks not covered by the guarantee (i.e foreign banks) are handling this differently. They are hoovering what cash is available through allsop auctions, taking advantage of the states inaction on arrears. The foreign banks want to exit as quickly as possible.

    Ulster Bank, NIB and all the other foreign banks have sufficient stock to force another downtrend in price

    By the time the state realises that in many cases repossession is the only option. There will be very little finance left to mop up these repossessions leading to a further collapse in price and an added cost to the taxpayer for the bank bailout.


  • Registered Users Posts: 4,305 ✭✭✭Zamboni


    D3PO wrote: »
    I didnt say they wont sell. I said there wont be a fire sale. Stretegic sales based on geography in areas most likely to yield the best sale prices will probably be one strand, continuing to rent BTL's where there are sitting tennants will most likely be another.

    Now the bank doesnt ideally want to sit on the assets and rent them, but if its in their interest they will.

    the only stuff that will likely be dumped onto the market for a quick sale will be unattractive housing in ghost estates etc

    thats my view on it anyway.

    Either way there will be an increase in supply in both/either the rental and property markets.
    Good news for potential tenants and househunters.


  • Registered Users Posts: 6,794 ✭✭✭cookie1977


    Zamboni wrote: »
    Either way there will be an increase in supply in both/either the rental and property markets.
    Good news for potential tenants and househunters.

    It depends on where all these properties are. If they're in ghost estates in the midlands it's not going to help a lot of people nor will the properties sell. Last Allsop auction this week was primarily rural housing:

    http://www.independent.ie/irish-news/bargain-hunters-splash-out-137m-at-property-auction-29104233.html

    Auction results details:
    http://www.realbid.co.uk/realbidIrish/resultsGallery.asp
    Lots unsold and withdrawn too.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 19,015 ✭✭✭✭murphaph


    Zamboni wrote: »
    Either way there will be an increase in supply in both/either the rental and property markets.
    Good news for potential tenants and househunters.
    How?
    If they are BTL (which most distressed mortgages are) then there's a fair chance they are tenanted, so the owner will change but the property will not become available to a new tenant.

    If they are owner occupied, then the owner will probably look to rent somewhere else (or even the same property) after the repossession.

    I just don't see the increase in supply. No new properties are being built, ownership is changing.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 1,799 ✭✭✭StillWaters


    Villa05 wrote: »
    Are the floodgates about to open?
    Sunday Business Post Reprt: Ulster Bank aims to repossess at least 1,000 homes a year after legislation is passed
    The also stated in the article that their intention was to keep as many people on their homes as possible, and instead will target strategic defaulters.

    I don't think anyone would argue that that is not sound action. However as DP30 stated, they will hold, drip feed or manage the stock. I can't see them dumping it. It is not in their interests to do so.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 89 ✭✭Barracuda1


    IMO with the buy to let market I'd say there is alot of tenants going to get a good deal for their money. There has to be people who stopped paying their mortgage when they seen the prices drop even though there were able to pay saved up the repayments and maybe bought another for cash in a auction or from an estate agent. In my estate there has been a few cash sales


  • Registered Users Posts: 19,015 ✭✭✭✭murphaph


    Barracuda1 wrote: »
    IMO with the buy to let market I'd say there is alot of tenants going to get a good deal for their money. There has to be people who stopped paying their mortgage when they seen the prices drop even though there were able to pay saved up the repayments and maybe bought another for cash in a auction or from an estate agent. In my estate there has been a few cash sales
    If any strategic defaulters have other property the bank would surely chase that property as well.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 89 ✭✭Barracuda1


    murphaph wrote: »
    If any strategic defaulters have other property the bank would surely chase that property as well.

    If the property was bought without bank support I'd say the bank might have a job on their hands. The property maybe in the partner or family member name.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 4,473 ✭✭✭Villa05


    The also stated in the article that their intention was to keep as many people on their homes as possible, and instead will target strategic defaulters.

    I don't think anyone would argue that that is not sound action. However as DP30 stated, they will hold, drip feed or manage the stock. I can't see them dumping it. It is not in their interests to do so.

    For those of you unfamiliar with Ulster Banks Parent company, here's a taster

    http://www.independent.ie/business/irish/bosi-to-close-down-business-accounts-as-full-exit-looms-26673572.html

    It is in there interest to get rid of stock in the short to medium term. They will want to sell before the market is flooded by Irish Banks. The new legislation will probably accelerate this.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 89 ✭✭Barracuda1


    Villa05 wrote: »
    For those of you unfamiliar with Ulster Banks Parent company, here's a taster

    http://www.independent.ie/business/irish/bosi-to-close-down-business-accounts-as-full-exit-looms-26673572.html

    It is in there interest to get rid of stock in the short to medium term. They will want to sell before the market is flooded by Irish Banks. The new legislation will probably accelerate this.

    Penny wish and pound foolish if they act too quickly on these loans. They may in the future want to re-enter the Irish market and may be stopped by the Central Bank.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 3,876 ✭✭✭Scortho


    Barracuda1 wrote: »

    If the property was bought without bank support I'd say the bank might have a job on their hands. The property maybe in the partner or family member name.

    If the btl was bought with bank support, chances are the family home was normally used as security, as most btl buyers needed it as leverage.

    If the property is owned in between 2 people they're both jointly a d severely liable.


  • Registered Users Posts: 4,473 ✭✭✭Villa05


    Barracuda1 wrote: »
    Penny wish and pound foolish if they act too quickly on these loans. They may in the future want to re-enter the Irish market and may be stopped by the Central Bank.

    Ulster Banks thinking mirrors the Central Banks views
    On the issue of repossessions, he believes that it might be inevitable for many investment properties but should be avoided for the majority of owner occupier cases where the borrowers are doing their best to repay. “A debt modification that enables them to stay in their home will often be the best solution all around,” he added.
    http://businessetc.thejournal.ie/patrick-honohan-household-financial-distress-is-at-unprecedented-levels-793673-Feb2013/


  • Registered Users Posts: 4,473 ✭✭✭Villa05


    MORE than one-third of mortgage holders who are in arrears are deliberately not paying – even though they can afford to do so – a leading academic has claimed.

    http://www.independent.ie/business/personal-finance/third-of-mortgage-holders-in-arrears-choosing-not-to-pay-29106324.html

    Many choosing the state supported rent free option by not paying there mortgage. Thats alot of houses to be repossessed


  • Registered Users Posts: 486 ✭✭EricPraline


    Villa05 wrote: »
    Many choosing the state supported rent free option by not paying there mortgage. Thats alot of houses to be repossessed
    Those are some pretty shocking figures, and something that needs to be seriously taken into account by anybody advocating debt write-down or mortgage attenuation schemes. The wrong people may ultimately end up being the prime beneficiaries from such a scheme.
    Gregory Connor, professor of Finance at NUI Maynooth, said that 35pc – or close to 40,000 – of residential and buy-to-let mortgage holders who are three months or more behind on their payments could meet their payments but were choosing not to
    ...
    The academic claimed that the high level of people who can pay their mortgage, but won't, means many people would get a deal under new personal-insolvency rules who should not.


  • Registered Users Posts: 3,528 ✭✭✭gaius c


    Villa05 wrote: »
    http://www.independent.ie/business/personal-finance/third-of-mortgage-holders-in-arrears-choosing-not-to-pay-29106324.html

    Many choosing the state supported rent free option by not paying there mortgage. Thats alot of houses to be repossessed

    Can you imagine what would happen if a third of tenants stopped paying their rent?

    The sooner these chancers get taken to the cleaners, the better.


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,033 ✭✭✭who_ru


    gaius c wrote: »
    Can you imagine what would happen if a third of tenants stopped paying their rent?

    The sooner these chancers get taken to the cleaners, the better.

    it's not going to happen, the guaranteed banks must be forced into repos of BTL properties, which still hasn't happened yet, they are the ones who have brought about the strategic default culture by not even attempting to address the arrears crisis in any meaningful way.


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,584 ✭✭✭ronan45


    Why is it that an English bank is pushing this through and not Irish banks?
    Will this loophole closing apply to all Banks? And why wouldnt all the banks take advantage now and go hell for leather :cool:

    http://www.eveningecho.ie/2013/03/03/ulster-bank-plans-1000-home-repossessions-per-year-once-loophole-is-closed/

    http://blogs.myhome.ie/2012/05/04/almost-one-in-10-mortgages-at-ulster-bank-on-a-forbearance-arrangement/

    It is feared the number of home repossessions may rise once new legislation is passed.

    Ulster Bank has announced it plans to repossess more than 1,000 homes per year once a loophole is closed in a new law which currently prevents banks from recovering money owed to them.

    The bank's chief executive Jim Brown told the Sunday Business Post that Ulster Bank planned to keep as many people in their homes as possible, but wanted to differentiate between borrowers who could not pay and those who would not.

    "There are regulations in place that say the bank is under an obligation to engage with any customer who contacts the bank and says 'I can't pay my mortgage this month', or 'I'm going to struggle for the next six months', and not foreclose on that mortgage for the 12-month forbearance period," he said.

    "The bank has to give them a chance to get back on their feet. Also, the bank has to try to find a way that that customer can pay at least a little bit of the mortgage and put them on a better long-term footing."


  • Registered Users Posts: 3,528 ✭✭✭gaius c


    ronan45 wrote: »
    Why is it that an English bank is pushing this through and not Irish banks?
    Will this loophole closing apply to all Banks? And why wouldnt all the banks take advantage now and go hell for leather :cool:

    http://www.eveningecho.ie/2013/03/03/ulster-bank-plans-1000-home-repossessions-per-year-once-loophole-is-closed/

    http://blogs.myhome.ie/2012/05/04/almost-one-in-10-mortgages-at-ulster-bank-on-a-forbearance-arrangement/

    It is feared the number of home repossessions may rise once new legislation is passed.

    Ulster Bank has announced it plans to repossess more than 1,000 homes per year once a loophole is closed in a new law which currently prevents banks from recovering money owed to them.

    The bank's chief executive Jim Brown told the Sunday Business Post that Ulster Bank planned to keep as many people in their homes as possible, but wanted to differentiate between borrowers who could not pay and those who would not.

    "There are regulations in place that say the bank is under an obligation to engage with any customer who contacts the bank and says 'I can't pay my mortgage this month', or 'I'm going to struggle for the next six months', and not foreclose on that mortgage for the 12-month forbearance period," he said.

    "The bank has to give them a chance to get back on their feet. Also, the bank has to try to find a way that that customer can pay at least a little bit of the mortgage and put them on a better long-term footing."

    Why? Because they are not cosseted and protected by the Irish taxpayer. I reckon that BoSI and Ulster bank are going to get the jump on our dummies and dump all their crud over the next year or so and when that's over, our "pillar banks" will be left in an even worse position than they already are. They'll do this because they need capital badly and the only way to do it is to crystalise the losses on their loan book and recover whatever they can get.

    However, the pillar banks don't seem to really care because the taxpayer will bail them out anyway.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 2,033 ✭✭✭who_ru


    gaius c wrote: »

    However, the pillar banks don't seem to really care because the taxpayer will bail them out anyway.
    Exactly. Disgraceful bastards that they are.


  • Registered Users Posts: 4,473 ✭✭✭Villa05


    Figures out tomorrow are expected to show an increase of 4,000 in those in arrears of 3 months or more on their mortgage
    The grim news on arrears was laid out by Central Bank officials to bankers, credit union officials and credit card company executives.

    Figures for the level of arrears for the last three months of last year are due out tomorrow and are set to show an additional 4,000 households are unable to meet home-loan repayments.
    It is expected the figures will show that more than 90,000 residential mortgage accounts are now three months or more behind on their repayments. This is up from 86,000 accounts last September.

    http://www.independent.ie/business/personal-finance/property-mortgages/bankers-warned-thousands-more-mortgages-have-fallen-into-arrears-29111815.html#comments

    +4.5% increase in a term that has seen a rise in people in employment


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 2,386 ✭✭✭monkeypants


    Villa05 wrote: »
    http://www.independent.ie/business/personal-finance/third-of-mortgage-holders-in-arrears-choosing-not-to-pay-29106324.html

    Many choosing the state supported rent free option by not paying there mortgage. Thats alot of houses to be repossessed
    I see the word claimed used a lot in this article, but no mention on how that's supported.


  • Registered Users Posts: 4,305 ✭✭✭Zamboni


    I see the word claimed used a lot in this article, but no mention on how that's supported.

    Why not ask him for it then?

    http://economics.nuim.ie/staff/professor-gregory-connor


  • Registered Users Posts: 4,473 ✭✭✭Villa05


    Shocking arrears figures
    - In arrears up to 90 days 49,393 (Q3 2012 50,031)
    - In arrears 91 to 180 days 19,073 (Q3 2012 19,814)
    - In arrears over 180 days 75,415 (Q3 2012 71,544)
    of which
    - In arrears 181 to 360 days 24,063 (Q3 2012 24,469)
    - In arrears 261 to 720 days 27,829 (Q3 2012 26,453)
    - In arrears over 720 days 23,523 (Q3 2012 20,622)

    14% rise in the numbers 2 years or more in arrears

    http://www.centralbank.ie/polstats/stats/mortgagearrears/documents/2012q4_ie_mortgage_arrears_statistics.pdf


  • Registered Users Posts: 486 ✭✭EricPraline


    The Public Accounts Committee heard today the Republic has a repossession rate of about 0.25 per cent of home loans, compared to 3 per cent in the UK and up to 5 per cent in the US.
    http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/breaking/2013/0307/breaking39.html


  • Registered Users Posts: 4,473 ✭✭✭Villa05


    I see the word claimed used a lot in this article, but no mention on how that's supported.

    If you had purchased a house for 300k and now found that the house was only worth 125K. Would you be tempted?

    Note
    Many bought starter homes apartments, which they had outgrown by the time they moved in.
    The banks/developers were bailed out, would you feel a bit aggrieved that you are left carrying the can for your debt + banks/developers debt + benchmarking + failed politicians extortionate pensions + every other Fianna Fail policy (of which, there were many)


    Were I in this position, not only would I consider not paying but also suing the state/banks for (a) not allowing me to sell out of a loosing position in 2009, because they will not accept a price less than the mortgage
    (B) not repossessing when the situation first became hopeless e.g. the loss of a job. This is what happens in every other normal functioning economy.

    Failure to do either of the above has made the situation worse for both the borrower and the bank, with the borrower having the full liability.

    There is a perception that repossessing is the worst evil known to mankind, when the truth is the complete opposite. Cutting that ball and chain from your ankles can be a very liberating experience


  • Registered Users Posts: 3,528 ✭✭✭gaius c


    Villa05 wrote: »
    If you had purchased a house for 300k and now found that the house was only worth 125K. Would you be tempted?

    Note
    Many bought starter homes apartments, which they had outgrown by the time they moved in.
    The banks/developers were bailed out, would you feel a bit aggrieved that you are left carrying the can for your debt + banks/developers debt + benchmarking + failed politicians extortionate pensions + every other Fianna Fail policy (of which, there were many)


    Were I in this position, not only would I consider not paying but also suing the state/banks for (a) not allowing me to sell out of a loosing position in 2009, because they will not accept a price less than the mortgage
    (B) not repossessing when the situation first became hopeless e.g. the loss of a job. This is what happens in every other normal functioning economy.

    Failure to do either of the above has made the situation worse for both the borrower and the bank, with the borrower having the full liability.

    There is a perception that repossessing is the worst evil known to mankind, when the truth is the complete opposite. Cutting that ball and chain from your ankles can be a very liberating experience

    Trouble is that "some" Irish people seem to be under the impression that they can dump the debt but keep the house.


  • Registered Users Posts: 4,305 ✭✭✭Zamboni


    Villa05 wrote: »
    There is a perception that repossessing is the worst evil known to mankind, when the truth is the complete opposite. Cutting that ball and chain from your ankles can be a very liberating experience


    Have you heard Jack O'Connors melodramatic bs?
    He is a disgrace to common sense.

    http://www.rte.ie/news/2013/0308/375048-mortgage-arrears/


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  • Registered Users Posts: 3,528 ✭✭✭gaius c


    Zamboni wrote: »
    Have you heard Jack O'Connors melodramatic bs?
    He is a disgrace to common sense.

    http://www.rte.ie/news/2013/0308/375048-mortgage-arrears/

    From now on, high profile persons who make statements like that should immediately be asked if they have loans in arrears themselves.


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