NFL Betting Thread 2014/2015

padraig_f · 26-08-2014 5:12pm

2nd bet of the season....Seahawks -5.5 vs. Packers in the Thursday night opener.

Saw the Seahawks in pre-season agianst the Bears and they looked awesome. Packers losing BJ Raji....biggest home-field advantage in the NFL....I think this line should be at least -7.

Emperor1989 · 26-08-2014 5:17pm

padraig_f wrote: »

2nd bet of the season....Seahawks -5.5 vs. Packers in the Thursday night opener.

Saw the Seahawks in pre-season agianst the Bears and they looked awesome. Packers losing BJ Raji....biggest home-field advantage in the NFL....I think this line should be at least -7.

Raji isn't much of a loss on last years form....and surprised they re signed him to be honest.

But yes its going to be very difficult for Green Bay to go in there and win....-7 looks about right. Big year for Rodgers though, he needs to get Green Bay in a championship game as the Saints are improving all the time.

padraig_f · 26-08-2014 5:23pm

skippymac6 wrote: »

Yeah Bradford is a big loss alright. Bet365 have suspended the markets on the Rams at the minute though.

Two early prices that I like for week 1 are Bears -6 against the Bills in Soldier field and Panthers in a scratch game at Tampa Bay.

Bears -6 looks solid. Was watching EJ Manuel the other night, and doesn't looked to have progressed much from his rookie season...missing throws..bad reads. If you're going to beat the Bears it'll be in the passing game, but not sure Manuel is equipped to do this.

Emperor1989 wrote: »

Going to stick with the Jets alot this season in there matches. Think they could go 10 and 6 over the season and are bound to return some euro over that period.

Think the 49ers could be turned over early on this season. But most will have priced that in but hopefully looking for an angle. Panthers I will be going against in a lot of games also with so many off season losses and Cam dodgy rib.

I'm on the same side as these 3.

skippymac6 · 26-08-2014 5:24pm

padraig_f wrote: »

2nd bet of the season....Seahawks -5.5 vs. Packers in the Thursday night opener.

Saw the Seahawks in pre-season agianst the Bears and they looked awesome. Packers losing BJ Raji....biggest home-field advantage in the NFL....I think this line should be at least -7.

Yeah an interesting one. The line was 3.5 a month ago before the Seahawks have looked good in the offseason. I think the Packers will putit up to them in this one but the major question mark is their run defence. If they can slow down Lynch, Michael and Turban to under 100 yards then I fancy them to go very close.

The Packers are arguably the third if not the second best team in the NFC so should the Hawks be at least -7 every home match by that logic? Rodgers has an array of talent at his disposal this year and I think he might be able to keep it close so I'll take the +5.5

skippymac6 · 26-08-2014 5:26pm

Emperor1989 wrote: »

Going to stick with the Jets alot this season in there matches. Think they could go 10 and 6 over the season and are bound to return some euro over that period.

Think the 49ers could be turned over early on this season. But most will have priced that in but hopefully looking for an angle. Panthers I will be going against in a lot of games also with so many off season losses and Cam dodgy rib.

I certainly like the Jets in their first match against the Raiders anyway at -4.5. The Raiders are for some reason sticking with Matt Schaub even though he has trouble with even the easiest passes. The Jets D will win that game alone for them.

I'd hold off on Carolina just at the minute. The Newton injury is a worry but that defence and the running game if it's on song will be enough to beat the Buccs first game up.

Emperor1989 · 26-08-2014 5:55pm

skippymac6 wrote: »

I certainly like the Jets in their first match against the Raiders anyway at -4.5. The Raiders are for some reason sticking with Matt Schaub even though he has trouble with even the easiest passes. The Jets D will win that game alone for them.

I'd hold off on Carolina just at the minute. The Newton injury is a worry but that defence and the running game if it's on song will be enough to beat the Buccs first game up.

Jets have Raiders first up, @Green Bay, then Chicago and then the Lions. They should go 3 out 4 for me.

It be interesting to see how teams will scheme for the Panthers...with very little out wide its basically a arm wrestle. Can't wait!!

Paully D · 26-08-2014 5:57pm

Week 1 lines at present:

I think the Vikings are way too big at +6 (even though they're on the road) given the Bradford news and they can also be backed straight up at 43/20 with Sporting Bet.

Also like the Bears at -6 at home to the Bills who have serious question marks at QB. Well, it's not really a question mark. Manuel just isn't good enough.

I'd be a fan of the Saints at that spread too. Brees should carve them up and I'm not sure the Falcons' excellent passing game in return will be enough given the advantage the Saints have on the defensive side of the ball.

Billy86 · 26-08-2014 6:05pm

Bigger issue for the Packers might not be Raj for this game, but rather the centre position. I Tretter was looking to be the starting centre this season but is out injured, and Don Barclay this early in the season might have been the primary backup as he played a good deal at RB last year and seems to have the versatility... But he is also injured. So the starter will likely be Corey Linsley will be the starter... reports on him have been quite positive, but he is a 5th round rookie. If the pocket gets collapsed a lot, and if that hurts our ability to run the ball effectively, there could well be issues for GB.

Hulk Hands · 26-08-2014 8:08pm

Paully D wrote: »

Week 1 lines at present:

I think the Vikings are way too big at +6 (even though they're on the road) given the Bradford news and they can also be backed straight up at 43/20 with Sporting Bet.

The Sportingbet ones are suspended, Oddschecker just hasn't removed it yet. I think Boyles are suspended also on the handicap, cant get into their site at all the past few days to check. Backed it the other evening anyway.

With Bradford out, id have both sides about equal. Meaning the line should be no bigger than -2.5 Rams

skippymac6 · 27-08-2014 10:04am

Paully D wrote: »

Week 1 lines at present:

I think the Vikings are way too big at +6 (even though they're on the road) given the Bradford news and they can also be backed straight up at 43/20 with Sporting Bet.

Also like the Bears at -6 at home to the Bills who have serious question marks at QB. Well, it's not really a question mark. Manuel just isn't good enough.

I'd be a fan of the Saints at that spread too. Brees should carve them up and I'm not sure the Falcons' excellent passing game in return will be enough given the advantage the Saints have on the defensive side of the ball.

Yeah along with the Bears -6 and the Panthers to win, the other one I like is the Saints -1.5. The Falcons will put up good numbers on offence this year but their defence is very suspect with Weatherspoon out especially. A good way to play this might be to go Saints -1.5 and over 51.5 points scored. One if not both of those will come in and the only way I see it staying under the total points is if the much improved Saints D hold the Falcons to maybe 17 points. I cant see the Saints not scoring in the very high twenties at least.

SameOleJay · 27-08-2014 10:35am

The Rams fron 7 could murder Cassell... I wouldn't touch Minny with or without Bradford playing.

I think Denver -7 might be the play. No Mathis to disrupt things and, really, Peyton will torch that secondary.

Bateman · 27-08-2014 11:12am

I am tempted to take the points on the Jags but will see if the Eagles are backed even more by KO. I'd find it hard not to take +13.

matthew8 · 27-08-2014 1:48pm

Week one betting on any sport is very hard to judge but I'd be very wary of it in the NFL because you never know which teams will surprise this year. Only thing I would like there is the Panthers.

JaMarcusHustle · 27-08-2014 1:59pm

Have gone for the following this weekend for week 1 of college football:

Marshall (-24) @ Miami, OH
SMU @ Baylor (-32.5)
Utah State (+6) @ Tennessee
Texas-SA @ Houston (-10.5)
Arkansas @ Auburn (-20.5)
Southern Mississippi @ Mississippi State (-30.5)

Will post up my reasons later, but I'm all in on Marshall this year. There's no spread too high that I won't back for Baylor, and I'm all aboard the Chuckie Keeton and Dak Prescott hypetrains so will be betting on them similar to how I did with Cam Newton a few years back.

glued · 27-08-2014 5:08pm

What bookies are people using for NFL/College ball?

Hulk Hands · 28-08-2014 12:54am

Backed the 49ers under 10.5 wins at 10/11. This line has moved in the US and Asia in favour of the unders but the UK bookies haven't reacted yet. Backed them at 5/2 not to make the playoffs also, should be about 4/7 yes 7/4 no

skippymac6 · 28-08-2014 10:07am

Hulk Hands wrote: »

Backed the 49ers under 10.5 wins at 10/11. This line has moved in the US and Asia in favour of the unders but the UK bookies haven't reacted yet. Backed them at 5/2 not to make the playoffs also, should be about 4/7 yes 7/4 no

Yeah good shout, I like both those bets.

Took -6.5 on the Steelers at home to the Browns last night too just after the news of Josh Gordon's suspension being upheld. The line hasnt changed as the bookies obviously were factoring it in, but I cant see a Gordon-less Browns team led by Brian Hoyer doing anything against that Steelers D that looks good again.

adrian522 · 28-08-2014 12:43pm

I'm genuinely amazed at the amount of people that think San Francisco won't make the play offs. It's possible I guess but I struggle to see them getting less than 11 wins.

To my mind possible defeats

Seattle x2 (These games are very close together and Bowman should be back by then, I'd take SF to win one but lets just say 2).
Denver
New Orleans

Should win

St Louis x 2
Arizona x 2
Dallas
Chicago
Kansas
New York
Washington
Oakland

Could go wither way:

Philadelphia
San Diego

Maybe I'm being a bit of a homer but I struggle to see 6 defeats there. Maybe they lose a road division game to the Rams or Cardinals, they have to go to New Orleans and Denver but I have to think they take one victory.

San Diego and Philadelphia are both home games too. I'd take the over on that 10.5 wins bet to be honest.

UnitedIrishman · 28-08-2014 12:43pm

glued wrote: »

What bookies are people using for NFL/College ball?

I find Bet365 the best firm to go with. They have quite a few more markets than other bookmakers. Plus they let you combine a handicap bet with a total points market bet from the same match if you call them (which is quite handy at times).

Billy86 · 28-08-2014 1:07pm

adrian522 wrote: »

I'm genuinely amazed at the amount of people that think San Francisco won't make the play offs. It's possible I guess but I struggle to see them getting less than 11 wins.

...

I generally agree, but do t write off teh Cardinals and especially the Rams, even without Bradford. That division has become a bit like the NFC East to my mind, where anyone can beat anyone else on their day (even if the Cardinals are lacking in talent by comparison) and though SO beat them twice last year, that Rams pass rush is nasty enough to give Kaepernick huge issues in the pocket which has proven to be a way to rattle him previously, while their run defense is a nightmare for anyone to play against.

Still wouldn't be betting on the 49ers getting less than 11 wins, mind.

---

I'm going for a treble of GB, NE and NO to win their divisions which is coming in at a tiny fraction above 7/2 odds (or was two days ago, really need to get on that this evening!).

JaMarcusHustle · 28-08-2014 1:29pm

When calculating any team's W/L, I always find it best to give them a minimum of 2 in-division defeats, regardless of whether you think they'll walk it or not. And in a division as competitive as theirs, I'd be starting off with 3 defeats for the 49ers and working from there. I'd do the same for the Seahawks tbh. On top of that, I give them 1 shock defeat, because there's usually one, so I'd group together the teams I definitely, without hesitation expect them to beat. And if there's 8 of those teams, I'll give them 7 wins and 1 loss. Any of the games that are left then I just go with my gut and situational factors (i.e. road games, days in-between, bye week factor etc.)

I'm pretty sure also that Bet365 give you a little bonus with accumulators that gets higher the more selections in the accumulator. At least they used to anyway (not the exact numbers, but you'd get a 5% bonus for a double, 10% for a treble and so on).

Hulk Hands · 28-08-2014 1:54pm

adrian522 wrote: »

I'm genuinely amazed at the amount of people that think San Francisco won't make the play offs. It's possible I guess but I struggle to see them getting less than 11 wins.

I did a probability ratio on excel. Priced up each game theyre playing individually. Came out about 8/13 to get 10+ wins and 6/4 to get 11+. I went on the basis that if they don't get 10 wins (13/8) then they won't be making the playoffs in that division and the NFC. I offset the small chance of them getting 9 and making the playoffs, with the small chance of them getting 10 and missing out. The ratio doesnt account for positive/negative momentum during a season which would change individual game prices but nothing can predict that. I do think they'll make the post season but the shouldnt be as big as 5/2 not to

Irish94 · 02-09-2014 2:05pm

Indianapolis Colts to win AFC South - 4/6. Thoughts? Expecting a big season from Colts.

Paully D · 02-09-2014 3:17pm

Irish94 wrote: »

Indianapolis Colts to win AFC South - 4/6. Thoughts? Expecting a big season from Colts.

8/11 with Spreadex.

I'd price them at 2/5 to win it to be honest. They should cruise the division, but as we all know stranger things have happened!

kennyb3 · 02-09-2014 3:19pm

Hulk Hands wrote: »

I did a probability ratio on excel. Priced up each game theyre playing individually. Came out about 8/13 to get 10+ wins and 6/4 to get 11+. I went on the basis that if they don't get 10 wins (13/8) then they won't be making the playoffs in that division and the NFC. I offset the small chance of them getting 9 and making the playoffs, with the small chance of them getting 10 and missing out. The ratio doesnt account for positive/negative momentum during a season which would change individual game prices but nothing can predict that. I do think they'll make the post season but the shouldnt be as big as 5/2 not to

This - it's a bout their price to make it against the probability to do it. It's not a simple they will or they won't.

Billy86 · 02-09-2014 3:49pm

Irish94 wrote: »

Indianapolis Colts to win AFC South - 4/6. Thoughts? Expecting a big season from Colts.

The Texans also have the talent to bounce back in my opinion ion. I would favour the Colts but personally not at those odds, a few holes in their roster in my opinion and while he is very clutch and a good QB I'm just not as sold on Luck as the media the media seem to so desperately want me to be. All the time.

Bateman · 02-09-2014 3:55pm

The expected bounce-back from the Texans has been more than sufficiently priced into their win total for the season. The Colts aren't at all short, fair price IMO

BKWDR · 03-09-2014 4:13pm

From Paddy Power: "Place an NFL acca of 5+ selections and get a 20% bonus on winnings. Mix and match handicaps and straight wins"

Billy86 · 03-09-2014 4:26pm

BKWDR wrote: »

From Paddy Power: "Place an NFL acca of 5+ selections and get a 20% bonus on winnings. Mix and match handicaps and straight wins"

Smart from them in a way, picking NFL games can be a nightmare so getting 5 could be tricky. I tend to find the best way to make a profit is live betting, especially when there is plenty of time to go, the team you're backing has the potential to score in them, and the scoreline does not reflect the play. Like for (a more extreme) example if the Saints are playing the Bucs, concede a kick return for a TD from the opening kickoff, then Breen throws a pick 6 right after type of scenario.

SameOleJay · 03-09-2014 4:51pm

I always assumed accumulators across divisions would be deemed related bets and not allowed so never even thought of backing them. My thinking was inter-division games would have them related. Delighted to be wrong.

NFL Betting Thread 2014/2015

Comments