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Aussie dollar falling

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    #62
    catbear
    Closed Accounts Posts: 5,092 ✭✭✭catbear


    mise_me_fein3 wrote: »
    Yes, I am hearing more positive stuff from Victoria also but regardless of all of this, now is a great time to buy some gold or silver bullion.
    Are getting some fillings done?


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    #63
    rightyabe
    Registered Users Posts: 812 ✭✭✭rightyabe


    mise_me_fein3 wrote: »
    Yes, I am hearing more positive stuff from Victoria also but regardless of all of this, now is a great time to buy some gold or silver bullion.


    We're could a joe soap like me self buy a few ounces...of gold that is, in Australia?

    And would you get the actual gold or just a piece of paper..?


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    #64
    catbear
    Closed Accounts Posts: 5,092 ✭✭✭catbear


    rightyabe wrote: »
    We're could a joe soap like me self buy a few ounces...of gold that is, in Australia?

    And would you get the actual gold or just a piece of paper..?
    If you're in Perth you could go to the mint.

    But why would want to buy gold, its part of the australian commodity basket so it falls alongside the Aus$. That was the whole point of the commodity boom.


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    #65
    rightyabe
    Registered Users Posts: 812 ✭✭✭rightyabe


    catbear wrote: »
    If you're in Perth you could go to the mint.

    Yeah checking it out here now. What's the difference in cast and minted gold..?

    Deffo going to buy a oz..


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    #66
    catbear
    Closed Accounts Posts: 5,092 ✭✭✭catbear


    rightyabe wrote: »
    Yeah checking it out here now. What's the difference in cast and minted gold..?

    Deffo going to buy a oz..
    Not sure what the difference is but when buying from the mint it will stamped and certified, uncertified gold could be laced with tungstun which is hard to detect.


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    #67
    mise_me_fein3
    Registered Users Posts: 168 ✭✭mise_me_fein3


    catbear wrote: »
    Are getting some fillings done?

    You might not value gold or silver but there is huge demand in China and India.
    Think about things like this.
    If the price is going down(which it has been), then it will not be worth the trouble to mine it, which means less will be mined, which means less will be available, which makes what IS actually available more expensive.
    Anyone that wants to see a nice chart, have a look at the value of gold during the last 12 years.
    It has increased by 500%.

    If you want to buy gold or silver, go to the perth mint's site and have a look at the distributors they sell to across Oz.
    Then just walk into the store and buy your bullion in person. :)


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    #68
    catbear
    Closed Accounts Posts: 5,092 ✭✭✭catbear


    mise_me_fein3 wrote: »
    Anyone that wants to see a nice chart, have a look at the value of gold during the last 12 years.
    It has increased by 500%.
    Have you looked at the chart for the last year?

    Gold can have a big downside risk, but on the plus side if gold rises so too will the aus$ and that suits me fine.


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    #69
    raymann
    Registered Users Posts: 312 ✭✭raymann


    catbear wrote: »
    I've been weary of it since i saw it go to €.5 - $1au in 08. Keep an eye on commodity prices and on any news out of China, rumblings of an internal credit crunch.

    the reason that happened is that everybody thought the crisis would lead to a drastic drop in demand for everything. as other posters have pointed out chinas huge stimulus program had a huge impact on the aus economy and it reflected in the currency price.

    the smart money thinks this is now reversing. the question is a) will be it be a slow process or a fast one and b) has the high level of debt and the crazy forex done irreparable damage to the aus economy.


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    #70
    ballooba
    Registered Users Posts: 6,315 ✭✭✭ballooba


    mise_me_fein3 wrote: »
    If the price is going down(which it has been), then it will not be worth the trouble to mine it, which means less will be mined, which means less will be available, which makes what IS actually available more expensive.
    I kept waiting for the smiley in your post, then I realised you were serious. You might have missed the massive asset bubble that has bankrupted Ireland. It's neither a new, nor local phenomenon. The cost of production is not a floor on the price of gold. In fact the exact same argument was made around 2007 with regard to Irish property, that the price of property could not be less than the cost of production. That went so well...


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    #71
    catbear
    Closed Accounts Posts: 5,092 ✭✭✭catbear


    raymann wrote: »
    . as other posters have pointed out chinas huge stimulus program had a huge impact on the aus economy and it reflected in the currency price..
    If you read back you'll see i was one of those poster and you'll see i think it could go to €.66. I cited the 08 swoon to demonstrate vulnerable it can be.
    A weaker dollar will be good for the non mining sector.


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    #72
    rightyabe
    Registered Users Posts: 812 ✭✭✭rightyabe


    I think I'll leave the gold buying for another few weeks any way. Turns out my boss has a nice gold reserve of his own and is gonna buy some in a few days he says..


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    #73
    mise_me_fein3
    Registered Users Posts: 168 ✭✭mise_me_fein3


    ballooba wrote: »
    I kept waiting for the smiley in your post, then I realised you were serious. You might have missed the massive asset bubble that has bankrupted Ireland. It's neither a new, nor local phenomenon. The cost of production is not a floor on the price of gold. In fact the exact same argument was made around 2007 with regard to Irish property, that the price of property could not be less than the cost of production. That went so well...

    I think gold and houses in Ireland are two very different things.

    Gold is a precious metal because there isn't a lot of it...Houses in Ireland now and in 2007......well

    You probably are not aware of the differences in the physical and paper metal markets. Have a look at the number of orders that the US mint has received this year.

    Perhaps some more research before you equate the Irish housing market to a precious metal.....:D There's the smiley


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    #74
    Bungarra
    Registered Users Posts: 64 ✭✭Bungarra


    bullionbourse and bullionlist are two online WA based companies. I've bought from them a few times. delivery can take a couple weeks though at the moment because of the amount of orders. They're cheaper than the mint and stock all their stuff as well as all the other stuff from around the world. Get the physical stuff. there's a reason there's a mark-up on the physical stuff from spot price.


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    #75
    rightyabe
    Registered Users Posts: 812 ✭✭✭rightyabe


    Bungarra wrote: »
    bullionbourse and bullionlist are two online WA based companies. I've bought from them a few times. delivery can take a couple weeks though at the moment because of the amount of orders. They're cheaper than the mint and stock all their stuff as well as all the other stuff from around the world. Get the physical stuff. there's a reason there's a mark-up on the physical stuff from spot price.


    What the "physical" stuff? I read on the mints site that its better to buy coins because if you ever sell a gold bar some countries won't accept it whereas coins are better..


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    #76
    Bungarra
    Registered Users Posts: 64 ✭✭Bungarra


    Physical is anything you actually have a hold of. not this unallocated/paper stuff... Perth mint stuff would be easily recognisable worldwide, i wouldn't worry about it. Coins are a bit more expensive because of the cost of minting. Look nicer too.
    www.silverstackers.com.au

    plenty info there on all thing metallic.

    rightyabe wrote: »
    What the "physical" stuff? I read on the mints site that its better to buy coins because if you ever sell a gold bar some countries won't accept it whereas coins are better..


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    #77
    catbear
    Closed Accounts Posts: 5,092 ✭✭✭catbear


    Something for gold lovers to consider......
    The bank now expects gold to end this year at $1,300 a troy ounce, down 9.4% on its previous forecast. It sees gold ending 2014 at $1,050 an ounce, down 17.3% on its earlier outlook.
    Gold is traditionally viewed as a safe store of value at times of weakness in the wider market, and is sought as a hedge against inflation and currency debasement at times of loose central bank monetary policy. The price of gold plunged 6.3% in a single session last week after U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke said the U.S. central bank could start winding down its $85-billion-a-month bond-buying program later this year. He also said the bank could even cease the purchases next year if growth picks up, as the Fed projects, unemployment comes down and inflation moves closer to the central bank's 2% target. The Fed's bond-buying program has been a major support to gold prices in recent years.
    http://www.marketwatch.com/story/goldman-cuts-2013-2014-gold-forecasts-2013-06-24
    If you can see the bandwagon you're too late.

    Edit to add: The Aus$/€ got a lift yesterday, don't know if it has anything to do with the Rudd vote but hey those looking to buy euro soon might take advantage.

    The only potential upside I can see is gold maybe being a hedge against a Aus$ devaluation but even then you might only break even as the Aus$ and gold would be on the same trajectory.


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    #78
    mise_me_fein3
    Registered Users Posts: 168 ✭✭mise_me_fein3


    We might be 2 years away or 5 years or perhaps only a few months but America is done. I don't care what Goldman Sachs writes.

    There has been huge inflation and it’s not going to stop. I see these low gold prices as a great chance to buy more.
    Gold had increased from $300 about 12 years ago to $1900 recently. I didn’t see any Goldman Sachs report on that. In fact, before the crash in 2008 they were advising people to sell at $750/$800.

    https://goldnews.bullionvault.com/goldman_sachs_lowers_metals_forecast_gold_750
    http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article2966.html

    Or on their opinion on the stock market
    http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=arHHMwWnKeDU

    The ratings agencies also gave top rating to companies that had to be bailed out in 2008.


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    #79
    catbear
    Closed Accounts Posts: 5,092 ✭✭✭catbear


    First off goldman is not a rating agency and secondly it's a forecast.

    I've been hearing the "america is toast" argument before I heard of subprime! I listened to people in ireland use "america is toast" to ignore the lessons of subprime as they continued to pile into property until 08. If america was toast in 2010 then ireland was incinerated.

    Look i'm not against holding gold but those already holding gold will tell you it's going to the moon and the world is going to **** if it means they can offload it for a profit. Gold is the currency of fear and at either high or low prices gold traders make their profit on turnover.

    Just remember to avoid a loss on gold you have to get someone to pay more than you did and in that position wouldn't you talk it up.


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    #80
    mise_me_fein3
    Registered Users Posts: 168 ✭✭mise_me_fein3


    You’re clearly not a student of history. The US dollar was back by gold until 1971 when they removed themselves from the gold standard due to the excesses of the Vietnam war. It has rocketed ever since.
    Before the US had the reserve currency, it was the Pound sterling and they also removed themselves from the gold standard after World War I choosing to pay their debts in unbacked pounds. They did go back on the gold standard though it is unlikely that the Americans will do this at this stage.

    Gold is money. The initial paper note was a receipt for the gold someone held in their bank account.
    I’m not saying America won’t be important but the US Empire in winding down. It might take 15 to 20 years like it took the British after WW2 or it could happen quick like the Soviets but we are living it now. China, Russia, Australia, Brazil and more are making agreements to do business with each other outside of the US dollar.
    There’s no way America will pay its debt, not the 16 trillion, I mean the total real debt including the unfunded liabilities.

    I know Goldman Sachs is not a ratings agency. They are in bed with the US government. They are the US government. I was just making a point about the general atmosphere in 2007.


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    #81
    catbear
    Closed Accounts Posts: 5,092 ✭✭✭catbear


    As a student of history you'll also know gold hording was outlawed as an emergency measure in the 30s, another potential risk for goldbugs to consider.

    You'll also know that when gold was linked to paper it was fractional and there was only faith in government that the reserve was as it stated, no difference in our faith that our fiat currencies are sufficiently regulated.

    I actually think the best gold related investment you could make would be in a metal detector, a gps, a shovel, a 4x4 and head for the big bite east of esperence. It could turn out to be a profitable adventure.


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    #82
    mise_me_fein3
    Registered Users Posts: 168 ✭✭mise_me_fein3


    catbear wrote: »
    As a student of history you'll also know gold hording was outlawed as an emergency measure in the 30s, another potential risk for goldbugs to consider.

    You'll also know that when gold was linked to paper it was fractional and there was only faith in government that the reserve was as it stated, no difference in our faith that our fiat currencies are sufficiently regulated.

    I actually think the best gold related investment you could make would be in a metal detector, a gps, a shovel, a 4x4 and head for the big bite east of esperence. It could turn out to be a profitable adventure.

    Hmmm? Emergency measure or just stealing gold from citizens? That was just in the US. Do you think that measure will work worldwide now?

    I’m not saying gold is the be all and end all. I’m merely pointing out that this system is looking shaky and potentially could fall in the next few years.
    I don’t really see what point you are making. Would you drive without insurance just to save the money because you probably wouldn’t crash your car?


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    #83
    catbear
    Closed Accounts Posts: 5,092 ✭✭✭catbear


    Outside of the US Metal based currencies have fallen apart too, the latin monetary union fell apart over a century ago when Greece and the Vatican states debased their coinage, effectively destroying trust with other members of the league.

    Money is any material that's interchangable with everyother material so it's not always about metals.

    My interest in gold is as an indecator of the aus$ as australia is a major global supplier, a drop in gold can have a bearing on the exchange rate. At some stage the non mining australian economy will influence the rate but until then gold acts as a handy indicator of mining economy contration.

    For the moment a strong dollar is good as i'm buying euros, at some point if it continues to weaken i'll stop and if i'm still in in australia then i'll look at inflation indexed stocks.


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    #84
    Bungarra
    Registered Users Posts: 64 ✭✭Bungarra


    Yes... Everything written about gold is generally biased in one way or another. I wouldn't trust anything Goldman Sachs says. They have an agenda there. Nor would I trust anyone writing about how high gold might go.
    It's all too liable to manipulation. I just know I want some of my money in metals as a hedge against America dying and dragging everyone else down with it.
    I bought gold @1700 and I bought more recently at the lower prices. It makes no difference really because I don't plan on doing anything with it for a few years. Also, buying metals is a good way of saving (for me) because it stops me spending on rubbish.
    Catbear, you're buying euros now? Do you think the $aud is going to drop much further? I was intending on transferring a lump of money recently (when it was 0.80eur/$1aud) but never got round to it. Gave up on the idea now.


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    #85
    catbear
    Closed Accounts Posts: 5,092 ✭✭✭catbear


    Bungarra wrote: »
    Catbear, you're buying euros now? Do you think the $aud is going to drop much further? I was intending on transferring a lump of money recently (when it was 0.80eur/$1aud) but never got round to it. Gave up on the idea now.
    66c is where I stop buying unless I'm cashing out of Australia altogether which is a possibility as it was mining boom money that brought us here in the first place.
    The Goldman forecast like most others project forward on present information, things could happen in the next week that could change everything. I just keep an eye on it and send money over consistently. I can't justify spending it here as a weekend in Margaret River travel lodge costs the same as two weeks in a comfortable Thai hotel!
    Time is a precious commodity too.


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    #86
    catbear
    Closed Accounts Posts: 5,092 ✭✭✭catbear


    The latest drop in the Aus$ seems to have more to do with the China slowdown as it has dropped against both the USD and the Euro.
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-23310975


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    #87
    mise_me_fein3
    Registered Users Posts: 168 ✭✭mise_me_fein3


    http://www.jimrogersinvestments.com/2013/07/jim-rogers-i-dont-trust-numbers-from.html

    From one of the people I listen to a lot.

    Regarding the buying and selling of currency (not money), I'd rather put it in gold and silver and be years early instead of a few days late when everything crashes.


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    #88
    catbear
    Closed Accounts Posts: 5,092 ✭✭✭catbear


    mise_me_fein3 wrote: »
    http://www.jimrogersinvestments.com/2013/07/jim-rogers-i-dont-trust-numbers-from.html

    From one of the people I listen to a lot.

    Regarding the buying and selling of currency (not money), I'd rather put it in gold and silver and be years early instead of a few days late when everything crashes.
    Well at least if it all crashes you'll have metal to chew on.


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    #89
    res ipsa
    Registered Users Posts: 692 ✭✭✭res ipsa


    mise_me_fein3 wrote: »
    http://www.jimrogersinvestments.com/2013/07/jim-rogers-i-dont-trust-numbers-from.html

    From one of the people I listen to a lot.

    Regarding the buying and selling of currency (not money), I'd rather put it in gold and silver and be years early instead of a few days late when everything crashes.
    Well Cassandra, even stopped clocks tells the right time twice a day. Some economists have correctly predicted 8 of the last 2 recessions.
    I'll be giving gold & its miners a wide berth.
    Deflation is more of a risk than inflation IMO.

    On topic AUD/EUR down to 68. Will we see under 60 soon?


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    #90
    Sundy
    Registered Users Posts: 1,512 ✭✭✭Sundy


    I've been in the gold fields all week showcasing a new product to mine engineers.

    Problem is they have no money and are struggling for investment or capital. Mines are closing, visited two that shut down just this week. When that starts happening its a good sign that gold price isn't going to increase anytime soon.


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    #91
    jank
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 13,018 ✭✭✭✭jank


    I see that this thread has gone off track a little. Anyone who says they are certain about anything is a fool. Nobody knows whats going to happen in the future but one can diversify. Putting everything in gold is foolish and irresponsible in my opinion.


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