Winter 2011/2012

Iancar29 wrote: »

Id be feckin lucky to get that when i go to Kiruna in a few weeks let alone here!!! haha!

BRRRRRRR!

I know but doesn't it make you appreciate the fact that Ireland is open to extreme cold and does get it, December 2010 being the most recent case in point. Fascinating weather in Ireland - Atlantic winds to the west, polar air to the north, siberian/continental winds to the east and tropical winds from the south. IRELAND is at the cross roads of them all, which is what makes our weather so varied :D

D

The above posts got me looking at the charts from 1947 and seeing if they in anyway compare to what the current FI charts are showing.



The one above is current at 192hrs, so Fantasy Island, but just seeing if it compared to anything that happened in 1947 and it looks quite similar to this one.



Now in our current FI charts that high pressure can't push up and doesn't create anything decent cold wise, but in 1947, just 10 days after the above chart, and as similar posts above have stated we got this beauty..



With these uppers...



I know the chances of something like 1947 panning out again would be very remote, but it does show that with a few things falling into place a very cold spell could easily happen.

Gives me some hope anyway...

well folks going on a real hunch i cant see ireland getting any real good traffic stopping snow this winter maybe 2012-13 winter period. my guess we will be hit in feb with a nice dusting and cold spell

Yeah, Mark Vogan is the guy who claimed that from December 15th 2011 cold would descend on the UK and Ireland and the majority of both islands would be covered with snow by Christmas Day 2011. The reality - we just had one of the mildest Christmas Days on record. And he left it up to the about the 22nd December 2011 before admitting this fact.

Furthermore, he predicted lows of circa -20oC for Glasgow, Scotland in the first 10 days of January 2012. A quick look at the models would indicate to you that there is ZERO chance of this happening.

He keeps confirming that he is "wanting to see" blocking highs and "looking for signs" of a negative AO and NAO - we are all looking for this but the act of looking does not make it happen!! Also he "continues to hold onto the belief" that cold will come - I continue to hold onto my belief in the tooth fairy, but guess what? She don't exist! Reality check mate!!

Vogan is a cold ramper. Period. And this colours his forecasts.

He has lost all credibility with me and I would take his forecasts with a huge pinch of salt and not get my hopes up.

Vogan's forecasts are HOPECASTS.

D

Excerpt from Vogan's 2011/2012 UK and Ireland Winter Forecast - issued 31st October 2011

http://markvoganweather.blogspot.com/p/long-range.html

JANUARYThe tough later part of December will set the stage for what may be a severe first 10 to 15 days of January as a strong NEGATIVE NAO (North Atlantic Oscillation & AO (Arctic Oscillation) firmly establishes itself with deep troughs filled with increasingly bitter Arctic air centred from the UK eastwards to Germany.
Bitterly cold Arctic air may keep us shivering from around New Year through the early part of January once the Atlantic door is shut and Arctic High Pressure settles in. High pressure brings very sunny days, lighter winds but with widespread and possibly deep snow cover, the coldest days and nights of winter will settle in.
Forecast Highs & Lows for a Selection of UK Towns and Cities
Inverness High: -4 to -8C Low: -10 to -18C
Glasgow High: -4 to -8C Low: -12 to -20C
Edinburgh High: -4 to -8C Low: -12 to -20C
M'chester High: -3 to -6C Low: -9 to -18C
Birm'ham High: -3 to -6C Low: -8 to -17C
London High: -2 to -4C Low: -7 to -12C
I believe it's possible that during the period of harshest cold, we may see large swaths of of the UK outside of towns and cities which struggle to see highs much warmer than -6 to -10C and nights beneath clear skies, light winds, widespread snowcover and a bitter Arctic air mass in place, lows may dip to -20C or colder as far south as the outer edges of London.

Such areas of Bensen, Oxfordshire, Shap, Cumbria and a selection of Highland cold hallows, we may see lows dip to between -21 and -25C and a possible 2 or two nights taking a run at the UK record of -27C which was recorded at both Altnaharra, Sutherland and Braemar, Aberdeenshire.

Wild Bill wrote: »

The clearance was near total - of a very bumper crop. They were all eaten in the first two weeks in December (I think).

Last year there was also a bumper crop and they remained untouched through the harsh December - and the following months. In fact many of them decayed on the twig right till the new berries appeared.

It is very mysterious - but maybe it should be taken to the Bird thread or the Berry thread as further discussion is likely to cause upset here.

Where would one start a Bird and Berry thread - there is no botany section so Biology is the closest. Though we never did Holly in Biology back in the day.

Frankly, I'm hopelessly confused as to the best course of action.

Where should I go?

(No impolite suggestions, please)

The weather in 2011 made for the best crop of holly berries in 70 years according to a few sources.
Some birds hang out in the stratosphere so maybe they know something or else they saw the 2012 film.
Unless anyone comes up with more concrete weather related theories then it's probably better to park the berries story for now.