Will the 'Troubles' ever happen again in N.Ireland?

A curious thing is happening, though perhaps not related to the OP. Now that there's (more or less) equality in the North, have some people decided they need to turn their victimhood and whinging somewhere else? Where's nearest - ah the south! Let's have a go at them for racial abuse.


http://www.derryjournal.com/community/columnists/brolly-s-bites-north-men-south-men-comrades-all-my-arse-1-3674549

The probability of a full scale return to an armed conflict
is very slim if the relative political and economic stability contines.*

However the probability of a short-term sectarian outbreak of extreme violence is high IMO.
for example Look at last summer at the rioting which saw two loyalist rioters shot and wounded by republicans
Imagine if it had been two dead or twelve dead and the tit for tat killings
that could have followed

Police said there were gunshots from the republican Short Strand area, while loyalists also opened fire, but masked UVF members were blamed for starting the violence by attacking homes in the Catholic enclave.
Two men on the loyalist side of the divide suffered gunshot wounds to the leg, officers confirmed.

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/crime/uvf-blamed-after-rioting-in-belfast-2300411.html

The Government in the north should take major steps to deal with flashpoints intersections and the remaining controversial marches.
The dissident groups appear to be in decline and hopefully they will call
a ceasefire soon, however there is also a probability that they will get lucky and cause mayhem or some of the weapons floating around could be used by somone mental to carry out a spree killing or something which could kick things off. The governments should be more pro-active in bringing the dissidents into the fold, cut some deal or defeat them. They appear to me to be just hoping they go away and that normal policing will defeat them.

*The relative economic stability and political stability could be interrupted by a number of factors
The global economic picture is uncertain, Eurocrisis, middle east instability,
energy suppiles, climate change, unknown unknowns, I could go on
It's unlikey but we could be heading into a period of severe economic decline for an extended period. The current future is uncertain.
So imagine something like North and south 30% decline in living standards
unemployment at 20-30% north and south or even worse etc etc
plenty of cannon fodder for a fight.

The current relative political instability could be interrupted by a number of factors. The GFA is inhertently instable A better solution short
of unification would have been repartition.
Imagine the Scottish leaving union in 2014
then imagine the souths economy taking off like a rocket
then a border poll in 2018 passes by 51%.
What will the 49% do? fight or accept.

The governments north and south should act urgently to resolve the remaining flashpoint for violence issues to reduce the trigger factors

• Marches
• flashpoint intersections
• remaining active armed elements.

The Government in the south should not cutback on defense spending and numbers for the medium term future IMO